Jack Bechta's theory on a soft FA market this year

[BTTA]

From his column in NFP.

Here is my favorite theory why we may see a more frugal free agency: All the NFL cap guys saw the movie Moneyball, and now think it’s their chance to speak up and make a big impact on the team (and impress their owners). This movie was their Jerry Maguire and their Top Gun. So maybe they are flexing their muscle trying to make their mark. One NFC team actually just hired an executive from the Oakland A’s organization that was a part of Billy Bean’s Moneyball team.​

Are signs pointing to a soft free agent market? | National Football Post

 

[Deus Irae]

If the FA market is soft, I'd expect that the bigger reason is the flat cap.

 

[Rob0729]

I agree the cap not going up this year and next is the biggest reason for a soft free agent market. I hope it is. That means the Pats will have a shot at some of the better free agents because they don't typically overspend for talent. Maybe (and I am not holding out hope for it) Mario Williams could get sighed for a realistic contract.

 

[IndianPat]

Mario Williams will not sign to a realistic contract. If that was the case. Texans wouldnt let him try the FA market.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

If the FA market is soft, I'd expect that the bigger reason is the flat cap.

And the fact there are 600 of them.

 

[upstater1]

They saw the movie? The book has been out for ages. If this movie really impacted them in this way, then you'd hope they would have had the intellectual curiosity to read the book a decade ago.

NEWSFLASH: Belichick is the dean of moneyball in the NFL. Instead of relying on big stats, he just asks for players to do their jobs. Cohesion is more important than stats.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

With the exception of Brandt, NFP's content quality has fallen off dramatically since Lombardi went to the network.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

They saw the movie? The book has been out for ages. If this movie really impacted them in this way, then you'd hope they would have had the intellectual curiosity to read the book a decade ago.

NEWSFLASH: Belichick is the dean of moneyball in the NFL. Instead of relying on big stats, he just asks for players to do their jobs. Cohesion is more important than stats.

THIS! Good gracious, if that movie influenced them, that means that these people do not read books. At all. Even when it is a book that should be of direct interest to their careers. A movie that invents a character to fit a narrative and leaves out large elements (don't get me wrong, I liked it) should not be influencing the way that these professionals are doing their job in a billion dollar industry. That's absolutely ludicrous.

 

[signbabybrady]

With the exception of Brandt, NFP's content quality has fallen off dramatically since Lombardi went to the network.

Brandt is great

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Instad of stats BB relies on High character guys and locker room cohesion, even to the point of bending his schemes to fit a player's abilities.

 

[upstater1]

Brandt is great

I once worked for Brandt in the 80s at Donald Dell's ProServ sports agency. David Falk was the big enchilada at that place, but Brandt was the nicest guy.

 

[upstater1]

Instad of stats BB relies on High character guys and locker room cohesion, even to the point of bending his schemes to fit a player's abilities.

But that's what Moneyball was also about.

The idea was that you could make up the deficiencies of a lower payroll by finding complementary players. The A's were excellent at doing their jobs and not too much more than that, but the formula differed from other teams because they looked inside the numbers for edges in areas that would make up for the talent/skill deficiency they had. The whole, in other words, was much larger than the parts.

 

[Deus Irae]

Gary Brackett just got cut, so you can add him to the list of players looking for employment.

Days after the Colts cut their longtime offensive captain, Peyton Manning, they’ve cut their longtime defensive captain, Gary Brackett, as well.

Brackett, who was limited to just one game last year because of a shoulder injury, has been released, according to ESPN’s John Clay

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/09/colts-cut-gary-brackett/

 

[patfanken]

I'd like to think that a lower cap plus a 600 member FA class would help the Pats get a better price for players at the top of the FA market. However if the past recession, and past NFL FA classes, has shown us anything is that the players at the top of the market are going to get PAID market prices. The top FA's in their respective positions are going to get big money. Its not like Wembly (sp ?) is going to sign for less than $10MM up front, or that Mario Williams is going to be satisfied with $7MM/yr.

Its the players at the lower to mid levels of FA who will bear the brunt of the "soft market". Many are simply going to lose their jobs.

 

[Deus Irae]

Raiders cut their other starting CB, Chris Johnson. The market grows.