idle thoughts - the WR conundrum.....

[JoeSixPat]

are we deliberately omitting Lloyd from this conversation?

why???

He has to be in the conversation if only because he's openly lobbying to join McDaniels .... But our needs are for a speedy deep threat.

Seeing as Mike Wallace can be had for a hefty contract and a de facto 2nd rounder (#31) I'd say that's a bargain for a guy who single handedly caught more passes thrown over 40 yards than probably the entire Patriots WR and TE corps combined.

The only question is why he had a drop off in the 2nd half of the season but even that's unfair because he was on such a tear early on. I think he had more passes caught thrown over 40 yards than anyone on the Patriots caught thrown over 20 yards.

That my friends is a true deep threat WR.

Giving up an early 2nd rounder (or very late 1st rounder) is something I'd have no problem with if Belichick wants to pull that trigger.

 

[Joker]

Being an old grizzled and scarred war horse, I never thought the Pats would get within sniffing distance of Wallace....the Lloyd subject has been a viable one for a month now....I maintain that the type of player needed in this WR group is one that can dictate safety help on deep post and sideline go routes....the Patriots need to get a safety taken out of that "amoeba" bunching strategy that opponents have been using recently...I want one on one matchups with either Gronk, Herno or Welker on every passing play...Branch cannot garner the kind of respect that would take the safety out of crowding the middle and playing double coverage on the outside receiver...we've watched this movie for two years now.

 

[MP-Logick]

Being an old grizzled and scarred war horse, I never thought the Pats would get within sniffing distance of Wallace....the Lloyd subject has been a viable one for a month now....I maintain that the type of player needed in this WR group is one that can dictate safety help on deep post and sideline go routes....the Patriots need to get a safety taken out of that "amoeba" bunching strategy that opponents have been using recently...I want one on one matchups with either Gronk, Herno or Welker on every passing play...Branch cannot garner the kind of respect that would take the safety out of crowding the middle and playing double coverage on the outside receiver...we've watched this movie for two years now.

Well, interestingly enough - in looking at yards at catch statistics over the past two years, meaning on average how far down the field the receiver is when he catches a pass:

Brandon Lloyd's was:

2010: 15.9 yds per reception
2011: 11.6 yds per reception

Mike Wallace's was:

2010: 14.7 yds per reception
2011: 9.7 yds per reception

So Lloyd, over the past couple of years, on average, has been catching the ball farther downfield then Wallace has. Wallace has done a lot more of his damage on turning short routes into big gains with yards after the catch then I would have expected. It makes me think that Brandon Lloyd could really be a very solid downfield receiver for NE.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

He has to be in the conversation if only because he's openly lobbying to join McDaniels .... But our needs are for a speedy deep threat.

Seeing as Mike Wallace can be had for a hefty contract and a de facto 2nd rounder (#31) I'd say that's a bargain for a guy who single handedly caught more passes thrown over 40 yards than probably the entire Patriots WR and TE corps combined.

The only question is why he had a drop off in the 2nd half of the season but even that's unfair because he was on such a tear early on. I think he had more passes caught thrown over 40 yards than anyone on the Patriots caught thrown over 20 yards.

That my friends is a true deep threat WR.

Giving up an early 2nd rounder (or very late 1st rounder) is something I'd have no problem with if Belichick wants to pull that trigger.

I would because the true deep threat is not what we need because Brady can't remain upright long enough for those routes to develop even if they are run correctly and besides the draft pick Wallace would cost a substantial deal, he's going to the highest bidder if he goes, and on a long term deal with lots of guaranteed money, and we'd be taking him sight unseen in an offense where you never know who will grasp it to the extent they're a viable option. And if they don't, they are useless. Like buying a Ferrari to haul your boat...when all you need is an affordable, well maintained, low mileage, previously owned 4 wheel drive vehicle. Lloyd, if the price isn't driven up by Condon snookering some idiot who doesn't pay attention to his track record absent McDaniels, would appear to be the ideal fit. And no loss of draft pick and a lot less against the cap.

Because of the way we use the hurry up in this offense we need players on the field who can run any and all the routes and make the post snap adjustments seemlessly in synch with the QB or again, it won't work.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Well, interestingly enough - in looking at yards at catch statistics over the past two years, meaning on average how far down the field the receiver is when he catches a pass:

Brandon Lloyd's was:

2010: 15.9 yds per reception
2011: 11.6 yds per reception

Mike Wallace's was:

2010: 14.7 yds per reception
2011: 9.7 yds per reception

So Lloyd, over the past couple of years, on average, has been catching the ball farther downfield then Wallace has. Wallace has done a lot more of his damage on turning short routes into big gains with yards after the catch then I would have expected. It makes me think that Brandon Lloyd could really be a very solid downfield receiver for NE.

I think you dropped a 1 somewhere.

Wallace has a 19 yard average and a heckuva lotta catches thrown 30 yards or more.

His worst season average was a paltry 17 yards per catch.

Mike Wallace Stats - Pittsburgh Steelers - ESPN

I could deal with giving Brady a weapon like that.

Edit: Lloyd caught only 2 passes thrown 20 yards or more last year, and averaged 14 yards per catch.

Wallace has a nearly 19 yard career average and caught 8 balls thrown over 20 yards last season. 5 of them were thrown over 40 yards.

So Wallace really crushes Lloyd in the deep ball threat department, as I think Gronk and Hernandez have better deep catch stats than Lloyd.

I like Lloyd a lot. I think of him as a major upgrade over Deion Branch and wouldn't mind having him in case Welker decides to hold out, but he's nowhere near the deep threat Wallace is.

If we pick him up it's a great move for an all around good receiver, but doesn't give us the deep threat we need.

 

[Rich<3TheWoodhead]

I think you dropped a 1 somewhere.

Wallace has a 19 yard average and a heckuva lotta catches thrown 30 yards or more.

His worst season average was a paltry 17 yards per catch.

Mike Wallace Stats - Pittsburgh Steelers - ESPN

I could deal with giving Brady a weapon like that.

Would patsnation rather snag Wallace for the O or keep building the D? In BB we trust.

 

[DW Toys]

Gronk is a beast. when healthy. A healthy Gronk and I think we win the superbowl. But that didn't happen. Outside of Welker, who do we have?

Here is our entire WR production for the superbowl:

Wes Welker

7 catches 60 yards

Deion Branch

3 catches 45 yards

Chad Ochocinco

1 catch 21 yards

Grand total 11 catches 126 yards.

That is NOT good.

The question now is do we resign Welker plus add a few middle salary vets to shore up the WR position or do we go in an entirely new direction? VJAX as premiere receiver, etc.

All good points Cousin. I have a couple ideas that can avoid the bigger number. Let's hope they sign Welker to a deal before the 13th so they know what they have. $9.4m is too much. That is why I am not crazy about V Jax or Wallace. They will command that much too. $20mm is too much for a tandem of WRs.

I love Branch but his big plays happened this year when the D fell asleep looking for Welker or Gronk. I don't think the man can play with any effectiveness. He can't be counted on to beat a DB. You can single cover this man. Sad.

I think this play book crap on Ocho by years end wants just that. The kid was open the last part of the year. He was open in the SB. TB and BOB would not throw his way. Nobody knows if he can still play for a sustained stretch of games. That is not all his fault. If you aren't going to throw to him just cut him. I think he is a better option than Branch but why waste the roster spot.

I would take Reggie Wayne. There is no way TB ignores him. He has played in top high profile games and performed. He can still get open. You can't single him like Branch. The Colts offense is as complicated as any. You can trust him as TB does not trust Ocho...... but you need more. I have a sleeper. Chaz Schilens At his combine and pro day, he also put up impressive numbers—a 4.38-40, a 43-inch vertical 10'4'' broad jump, a 4.25 shuttle, and a 6.84 three-cone drill.6'4" and 225 and great hands. He has been dinged up almost every year in Oakland but he is only 26 and that desired NFL experience BB likes. He would be cheap. He's better than any mid tier 2012 WR in the Draft. If he can ever get a healthy season. I'd take that pair over Branch and Ocho.

Chaz Schilens, WR for the Oakland Raiders at NFL.com
DW Toys

 

[MoLewisrocks]

All good points Cousin. I have a couple ideas that can avoid the bigger number. Let's hope they sign Welker to a deal before the 13th so they know what they have. $9.4m is too much. That is why I am not crazy about V Jax or Wallace. They will command that much too. $20mm is too much for a tandem of WRs.

I love Branch but his big plays happened this year when the D fell asleep looking for Welker or Gronk. I don't think the man can play with any effectiveness. He can't be counted on to beat a DB. You can single cover this man. Sad.

I think this play book crap on Ocho by years end wants just that. The kid was open the last part of the year. He was open in the SB. TB and BOB would not throw his way. Nobody knows if he can still play for a sustained stretch of games. That is not all his fault. If you aren't going to throw to him just cut him. I think he is a better option than Branch but why waste the roster spot.

I would take Reggie Wayne. There is no way TB ignores him. He has played in top high profile games and performed. He can still get open. You can't single him like Branch. The Colts offense is as complicated as any. You can trust him as TB does not trust Ocho...... but you need more. I have a sleeper. Chaz Schilens At his combine and pro day, he also put up impressive numbers—a 4.38-40, a 43-inch vertical 10'4'' broad jump, a 4.25 shuttle, and a 6.84 three-cone drill.6'4" and 225 and great hands. He has been dinged up almost every year in Oakland but he is only 26 and that desired NFL experience BB likes. He would be cheap. He's better than any mid tier 2012 WR in the Draft. If he can ever get a healthy season. I'd take that pair over Branch and Ocho.

Chaz Schilens, WR for the Oakland Raiders at NFL.com
DW Toys

Oddly Polian says he can't. And Indy's offense is as simple as they come. Manning does all the reads pre snap, there are no post snap adjustments. That offense is predicated on timing and talent, and Wayne is on the back 9 in both. Yeah, and Bill loves guys whose experience is at being dinged up every year... Welker said something on twitter the other day that Bill has said before. He was watching the combine and shut if off saying it was a joke, watch game tape instead.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Would patsnation rather snag Wallace for the O or keep building the D? In BB we trust.

I'm not sure it needs to be an either or... It needs to be both.

But I think we know that the lack of a deep threat allows defenses to collapse and put more pressure on the middle of the field and on Brady and it's not a deficiency you want to enter into a season with, so one way or another Belichick will attempt to address this.

Given the length of time for rookie WRs to typically develop one would have think that Belichick would attempt to address this with a veteran with a proven track record.

I have more confidence that we can find some good rookie defensive players than finding a WR in the draft.

 

[Elijah T.]

I haven't read the entire thread, but Brandon Lloyd is an obvious answer for this offense.

He can run all of McDaniels' routes from the outside, gets downfield and seperates from man-coverage consistently; good playing speed. I don't see any legitimate reason -besides wanting top dollar- that he shouldn't be a Patriot.

I would be thrilled if we landed him and Eddie Royal and drafted a receiver in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

[Fencer]

One problem with signing any reasonably expensive FA receiver is that Welker might say "OK, how much more than that are you going to pay me?"

On the plus side, signing other WRs makes it easier to say "OK, then, play out your franchise tag; for one year, you're clearly worth the money."

 

[MP-Logick]

I think you dropped a 1 somewhere.

Wallace has a 19 yard average and a heckuva lotta catches thrown 30 yards or more.

His worst season average was a paltry 17 yards per catch.

Mike Wallace Stats - Pittsburgh Steelers - ESPN

I could deal with giving Brady a weapon like that.

Edit: Lloyd caught only 2 passes thrown 20 yards or more last year, and averaged 14 yards per catch.

Wallace has a nearly 19 yard career average and caught 8 balls thrown over 20 yards last season. 5 of them were thrown over 40 yards.

So Wallace really crushes Lloyd in the deep ball threat department, as I think Gronk and Hernandez have better deep catch stats than Lloyd.

I like Lloyd a lot. I think of him as a major upgrade over Deion Branch and wouldn't mind having him in case Welker decides to hold out, but he's nowhere near the deep threat Wallace is.

If we pick him up it's a great move for an all around good receiver, but doesn't give us the deep threat we need.

You are looking at yards per reception, which is a completely different statistic. I'm looking at only yards at the catch, which measures how far downfield the receiver was when he caught the ball.

 

[patsfan13]

I think you dropped a 1 somewhere.

Wallace has a 19 yard average and a heckuva lotta catches thrown 30 yards or more.

His worst season average was a paltry 17 yards per catch.

Mike Wallace Stats - Pittsburgh Steelers - ESPN

I could deal with giving Brady a weapon like that.

If Wallace can perform that way in our O with the pre snap reads and adjustment as opposed to the Chinese fire drill O with beoken big plays that Pitts runs.

Edit: Lloyd caught only 2 passes thrown 20 yards or more last year, and averaged 14 yards per catch.
...
So Wallace really crushes Lloyd in the deep ball threat department, as I think Gronk and Hernandez have better deep catch stats than Lloyd.

Can't agree Lloyd is just what we need in THIS Offense as a deep threat.

Lloyd in this O under McD with a decent QB (Orton) put up:

rec yds avg TD's
77 1,448 18.8 11



Very impressive running the whole route tree in this O as opposed to making big plays on broken plays as Wallace had done in Pitts.

 

[supafly]

If Wallace can perform that way in our O with the pre snap reads and adjustment as opposed to the Chinese fire drill O with beoken big plays that Pitts runs.





Can't agree Lloyd is just what we need in THIS Offense as a deep threat.

Lloyd in this O under McD with a decent QB (Orton) put up:

rec yds avg TD's
77 1,448 18.8 11



Very impressive running the whole route tree in this O as opposed to making big plays on broken plays as Wallace had done in Pitts.

That's really what it comes down to, and what a lot of people are tending to overlook on some level.

Pittsburgh is going to get bitten at some point, if the pattern of Roethlisberger running around for 5-7 seconds continues until Wallace gets downfield. I don't see that aspect being very good for a guy like Brady who is trying to prolong his career.

It takes a smart player to pick up this offense, on top of that I can't really see how Belichick would take that kind of a gamble.

Then again, BB knows a lot more about the possibilities than we do, so I will defer to his judgement on the matter. If Belichick feels as though Wallace can do the kinds of things that it takes in this offense, he will consider him an option--although I still think the compensation would be too great.

There may be WR's available that can immediately step in and contribute, and hopefully no matter what the decision is, we see an upgrade.

I can't say that the thought of Wallace here wouldn't excite me, just that I don't see it as being very realistic.

 

[JoeSixPat]

You are looking at yards per reception, which is a completely different statistic. I'm looking at only yards at the catch, which measures how far downfield the receiver was when he caught the ball.

Nope. I'm looking how deep the passes were thrown. Not yards after catch, or yards per catch (though I did include yards per catch because Wallace's are so much better than Lloyd's

Go to the Splits.

Lloyd caught only two passes that were thrown for more than 20 yards.

Wallace had 8. 5 of them were thrown for 40 yards or more. http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/12601/mike-wallace

I'd be interested in seeing where you found the stat saying Wallace averages 9.7 yards per reception, or a high of 14.7. His average is much much higher than that, though all receivers catch most of their passes between 5 and 15 yards.

Wallace crushes Lloyd as a deep threat WR. I'm not knocking Lloyd. Brady would make good use of him and while he had great 2010 numbers he's not done that consistently. Out of his 9 years in the league he has that one major stand out year (though he's not been bad in some other seasons... Just not consistent in the deep ball department).

Aside from that he's been a good all around receiver but not the consistent major reliable deep threat that Wallace has been in his three years...

So perhaps Wallace has even yet to peak. My gut tells me that in year 10 Lloyd may be on the downside of his career.

But when it comes to being a deep threat, Gronkowski and Hernandez were better deep threats last year.

But if I'm looking at paying out a big contract, one for a 25 year old who is a consistent deep threat and one for a 30 year old who is a less frequent deep threat, I tend to prefer the younger more consistent player.

Of course ultimately here's the important thing... If it came down to adding Wallace or Lloyd, both would likely be a big upgrade over what we currently have as a deep threat WR, which I'd assume is Ochocinco.

 

[MP-Logick]

Nope. I'm looking how deep the passes were thrown. Not yards after catch, or yards per catch (though I did include yards per catch because Wallace's are so much better than Lloyd's

Go to the Splits.

Lloyd caught only two passes that were thrown for more than 20 yards.

Wallace had 8. 5 of them were thrown for 40 yards or more. Mike Wallace Stats, Splits - Pittsburgh Steelers - ESPN

I'd be interested in seeing where you found the stat saying Wallace averages 9.7 yards per reception, or a high of 14.7. His average is much much higher than that, though all receivers catch most of their passes between 5 and 15 yards.

All of those statistics you linked to still include yards after the catch as part of the numbers listed - for example one of the 3 receptions in the "Pass thrown 31-40 yds category" went for 95 yards, and counts as such.

Per Stats LLC's formula, Wallace had 72 receptions for 1193 yards last season, which is an average of about 16.56 yards per reception. He also averaged 6.8 yards after the catch per reception, however, which when removed comes out to roughly 9.76 yards per reception at the time of the catch. No question he caught some deep balls, but he racked up the majority of his yardage on shorter receptions.

Lloyd, using the same formula, averaged 11.6 at the time of the catch.

The 2010 season is probably a better reflection of their value, since in 2011 Lloyd had Tebow, and then switched teams, and Wallace had a gimpy QB who couldn't get him the ball deep any longer. The 2010 numbers, nicely enough, were already calculated for me by ESPN at number 4 here: Cam Newton stays valuable with his legs; what's wrong with Philip Rivers; is Laurent Robinson more valuable than Dez Bryant? - Fantasy Football - ESPN

 

[JoeSixPat]

All of those statistics you linked to still include yards after the catch as part of the numbers listed - for example one of the 3 receptions in the "Pass thrown 31-40 yds category" went for 95 yards, and counts as such.

Per Stats LLC's formula, Wallace had 72 receptions for 1193 yards last season, which is an average of about 16.56 yards per reception. He also averaged 6.8 yards after the catch per reception, however, which when removed comes out to roughly 9.76 yards per reception at the time of the catch. No question he caught some deep balls, but he racked up the majority of his yardage on shorter receptions.

Lloyd, using the same formula, averaged 11.6 at the time of the catch.

The 2010 season is probably a better reflection of their value, since in 2011 Lloyd had Tebow, and then switched teams, and Wallace had a gimpy QB who couldn't get him the ball deep any longer. The 2010 numbers, nicely enough, were already calculated for me by ESPN at number 4 here: Cam Newton stays valuable with his legs; what's wrong with Philip Rivers; is Laurent Robinson more valuable than Dez Bryant? - Fantasy Football - ESPN

Dude... Give it up.

Wallace caught 9 passes that were THROWN for more than 20 yards.

He caught 5 passes that were THROWN for more than 40 yards.

Lloyd only caught 2 passes that were THROWN for more than 20 yards ALL SEASON.

You can talk all you want about how Lloyd caught a 5 yard pass and ran for 90 more yards but he's not the deep threat that Wallace is.

I don't know how much clearer those stats can be.


Talk about yards after the catch all you want - you can't hide the fact that Lloyd caught only two deeply thrown passes twice last year. Even COUNTING Lloyd's yards after the catch he averaged less than 14 yards per catch.

I'd probably grant anyone that Lloyd may be a better all around receiver, but you cant take one season out of his 9 year career and ignore the other 8. Nor can you discount the fact that Lloyd is 30 and on the down side of his career where Wallace is just 25, has been a consistent deep threat and is likely still improving.

 

[Fencer]

It seems that a skill that's particularly important in NE as opposed to elsewhere is for the WR to make his own reads, including post-snap.

Who that could be acquired has shown evidence he's particularly good at that?

 

[supafly]

It seems that a skill that's particularly important in NE as opposed to elsewhere is for the WR to make his own reads, including post-snap.

Who that could be acquired has shown evidence he's particularly good at that?

Obviously, your comment is intended to be tongue in cheek regarding Lloyd, but I would also include Reggie Wayne on that list, without a doubt.

We may only be able to get 2 yrs from Wayne, but it would immediately upgrade the position considerably, and probably for the right cost.

In the meantime, we could attempt to add another WR or two via the draft, and also have the next 2 FA classes to bolster the quality of the position.

There's nothing wrong with band-aids if it dramatically improves the position. No one was complaining about Andre Carter last yr, and he certainly isn't viewed as being here "for the future."

My personal choice is Wayne. I believe that he has proven himself in every way, and would fit in financially and otherwise.

I would also be very excited with Lloyd, and even Wallace to a lesser degree, and for different reasons (upside, age, etc)--although I believe that BOTH will be overpriced, and that will be the key issue in this front office.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Dude... Give it up.

Wallace caught 9 passes that were THROWN for more than 20 yards.

He caught 5 passes that were THROWN for more than 40 yards.

Lloyd only caught 2 passes that were THROWN for more than 20 yards ALL SEASON.

You can talk all you want about how Lloyd caught a 5 yard pass and ran for 90 more yards but he's not the deep threat that Wallace is.

I don't know how much clearer those stats can be.


Talk about yards after the catch all you want - you can't hide the fact that Lloyd caught only two deeply thrown passes twice last year. Even COUNTING Lloyd's yards after the catch he averaged less than 14 yards per catch.

I'd probably grant anyone that Lloyd may be a better all around receiver, but you cant take one season out of his 9 year career and ignore the other 8. Nor can you discount the fact that Lloyd is 30 and on the down side of his career where Wallace is just 25, has been a consistent deep threat and is likely still improving.

Does Wallace know the Pat's offensive system? If not, how do we know we won't be another bust but this time an extremely expensive bust?