This is what happens when you have too much time on your hands

[patfanken]

This is an exploration into the unlikely. Its a alternate scenario that I'm not sure is the best thing nor do I think its the right thing. Its just something different to contemplate. Its a long time before the draft let alone watching the FA season come and go. So many possibilities

Last season, much was made about the Haynesworth and Ocho signings, which didn't work out, while the last minute signings of Anderson, Carter, Waters and Iheadabu, went largely unnoticed and under appreciated until the season was well underway. Each of those signing were unmitigated home runs. The lesson to be learned from this is that you really don't know how a signing will work out until the season is well underway. What might look like sure thing can back fire (just ask the Eagles), while after thoughts can turn into 20 sacks and an All Pro RG.

Here is one just one possible scenario

Offense:

1. Receivers - We don't resign Welker or Branch - We essentially retool the WR position.

a. We replace Welker with Edelman – he's actually bigger, stronger and faster than Welker. If you noticed that he nearly always makes at least one guy miss on punt returns regardless of the end result. He is now going into his 4th year as a WR and is well versed in the offense and the job of a slot WR

b. We take the Welker money and give it to Vincent Jackson. HE has the size and speed to be a true down field threat. Others may like Lloyd better, and I wouldn't hate it, but Jackson gives us that true downfield speed that defenses would have to respect. Wallace would be my first pick but I'm not willing to give up that first round pick as well as the max contract to get him.

c. We replace Branch with Ocho. He is bigger, faster, and more durable than Branch. A full off season of OTAs and passing camps will improve his production. He STILL would be the 5th option behind Gronk, Herandez, Jackson, and Edelman, but so would Branch if we kept him. Plus a he wouldn't cost you more than 2MM for this season.

d. So you would go into the season with Gronk, Herandez, and a designated 3rd TE from FA, along with Jackson, Edelman., Ocho, a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick, and someone like Underwood who could bounce from the PS to the roster as needed

2. OL - You don't resign Dan Koppen.

a. As more and more teams move to a 3-4 base, he is just too small to set the middle of the pass blocking schemes Dan C has more than established a claim on the position.

b. OT is set with Light coming off what might have been his best season as a Patriot, along with Volmer and Solder, plus someone from Dante's school of Olmen in training.

c. OG is set with Mankins, Waters and Cannon as 3 guys who could start at any time. Cannon's role in 2012 should be to take about 25% of the snaps at RG so Waters will be fresher for the Playoffs

d. So the OL roster will be Light, Mankins, Connolly, Waters, Volmer, Solder, Cannon, Orenburger, plus the best of the rest

3.RB's – You look to upgrade BJGE -

a. Ridley and Vereen become your principle RB's Woody continues as the 3rd down RB and you look into FA to find a pure power back to up grade BJGE – If you can't find him, then you bring BJGE back at the right price.

4. QB - You bring back the 3 Qbs. I would love to get something for Hoyer as a RFA, but I'm afraid the lack of actual playing time he's gotten, plus the shear volume of FA QB's who have actually played in the league would make it unlikely that the Pats could even get a 7th round pick for him in trade. Keep all three and you might have the best QB situation in the league, top to bottom.

Defense:

1. DL – Here is where some tough decisions are going to have to be made. This also assumes we will see much of the same hybrid 3-4/4-3 formations again.

a. Retire Mike Wright and replace him through the draft.

b. Resign Andre Carter and Anderson. Both exceeded our expectations in the pass rush, but also were better than expected against the run. Sign Carter for a year and give a 3 year deal to Anderson.

c. You draft a penetrating interior Dlman – Fletcher Cox seems like most people's favorite at this point.

d. You start the season with this DL roster. Wilfolk, Deadrick, Love, Pryor, Brace, Cox, Anderson, and Carter both of whom will play some OLB Sorry Sean Ellis, no room at the inn for you.

2. ILB- We are all set here, no need to add anyone.

a. Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher are enough for the season. Especially when you consider that when the defense goes to the nickel, the ILB will be replaced, and we are likely to be in a nickel more than 50% of the time.
b. You also keep a guy like Tarpanian as a coverage ILB/special teamer. He replaces Guyton in that role.

3. OLB – Once again we enter the bizzaro world of the NE Patriots OLB. I would expect to see the Pats go with a group of 4 that would consist of Ninko, Carter, Cunningham and a draft pick. Right now that would seem to be someone like Mercilus, Perry or Jones. But for this exercise, I'll take Mercilus because he is the guy your looking to replace Carter with in 2013.

4. DB's Here is the critical area for improvement for this season.

a. I want to keep McCourty's principal AOR at CB, though moving him to S in specific packages would be fine

b. I want to add a high end vet FA to this mix. Right now Michael Griffith is at the top of my wish list as a big upgrade to our safety position.

c. Draft another tall CB Chase Minnefield is my top choice and should be there at 31 and might be there at 47

d. So in the backfield .You'd have Arrington, McCourty, Dowling, Minnefield, and Moore playing CB with Griffith, Chung, Barrett, at the S position, with Moore and McCourty available to play S in certain coverage packages.

5. That would leave 4 roster spots available for the 2 kickers, the snapper, and Matthew Slater

This would be a 53 man roster that I'd LOVE to see coming out of. Let me know what you think. Its not like we have a lot else to do the next 2 months but speculate on crap like this.

 

[Sciz]

If Welker hits the open market, he's signing with the Jets. It's basically guaranteed. You'd definitely be able to get away with tagging and then trading him for a 2nd or so.

 

[Tunescribe]

If Welker hits the open market, he's signing with the Jets. It's basically guaranteed. You'd definitely be able to get away with tagging and then trading him for a 2nd or so.

Welker is a sticky situation. He and Brady are very tight, and I would hate to see him go elsewhere in the division. He'll also be expensive deserved or not. Tagging and trading is one option I haven't seen discussed -- what are the advantages and drawbacks?

Ken, do you really think Edelman is a worthy replacement at slot? I wonder whether he has the instincts for the position to approach anywhere near the production Welker has.

 

[patsfan-1982]

there maybe two or three #1 type WR's in there 20's on the market Welker will be 31 and is pretty much a 80 rec 900 yard WR with anyone other then the pats and teams know this and will not offer him big money i see him back in new england next year

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If Welker hits the open market, he's signing with the Jets. It's basically guaranteed. You'd definitely be able to get away with tagging and then trading him for a 2nd or so.

I can't see him going to the JEST. (A) They barely have cap room, and (B) I don't see Welker wanting to go there; it'd just be Miami 2006 redux.

Welker is a sticky situation. He and Brady are very tight, and I would hate to see him go elsewhere in the division. He'll also be expensive deserved or not. Tagging and trading is one option I haven't seen discussed -- what are the advantages and drawbacks?

Pros: Pats get a pick, get to control Welker goes.
Cons: Pats no longer have Welker . . . but they do have a pissed-off Brady. Pats can't trade him until they sign him, but if they can't trade him, they have an angry Welker who's owed $9.4M.

 

[Patspsycho]

If Welker hits the open market, he's signing with the Jets. It's basically guaranteed. You'd definitely be able to get away with tagging and then trading him for a 2nd or so.

I guarantee you it won't happen, and not just because Welker doesn't like them, but because they are very close to maxing out on their cap and that includes the carryover from last year (Holmes is eating that all up with his 2012 salary, when a whopping $8m kicks in).

I think their priority will be to resign Pouha because they can't franchise him, since that will put them over the cap.

 

[Fencer]

There certainly is a chance that Welker will break the bank and walk away.

One obvious destination is Kansas City -- Cassell is the one mediocre QB in the league with whom Welker has played outstandingly well in the past.

Detroit could really use Welker as well.

 

[MSU]

Ridley and Vereen are the main backs based on what? Those killer highlight videos they inspired with their asses glued to the bench?

 

[Fencer]

As for DB:

Arrington, McCourty, Chung, and Dowling are all strong contenders for starting or "starting" roles.

Ihedigbo and Moore seems like fine backups, but aren't really who you want starting.

That all leaves plenty of room for importing talent, both high profile and under the radar.

Meanwhile, with all the talk of moving McCourty to safety, why not Arrington instead? He's a sure-tackling ballhawk who can even rush the passer, and nobody ever complains about his speed. That seems to be a lot like the skill set you'd want in a safety.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

IMO Welker would likely go back to the team that lost him in that trade that practically raped them in that trade,The Dolphins,Miami knows they let a great player go for pennies and if they have a chance to put him out there with Marshall on the other side,they will.

I absolutely LOVE the possibility of Vincent Jackson coming to Foxboro,Belichick seems to make good of most malcontents and troublemakers unless your last name is Haynesworth .

IMO Jackson is going to end up being the best WR to hit the market...but you can't count out SD yet.

 

[Sciz]

Welker's best friend from college coaches for the Jets. Rex seems to love Welker as a player. Wes would also presumably like to screw over the Pats for neglecting him. They'd find a way to make it work financially.

My suggestion for a Welker trade is Washington. If (a big if) they get Peyton, they I assume they'd Wayne would follow along. And at that point, they might as well go all out and have Peyton throwing to Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss, and Welker. Their 2nd round pick is probably a little optimistic for him, but you never know.

That way, the Pats keep him out of the division (specifically the Jets) and get something in return for him.

 

[supafly]

Ken--I agree, why not play out all of the scenarios? You are right, we have plenty of time to do so.

As far as your WR scenario--I can't imagine not having Welker around, at least for the 2012 season. It may be that they cannot reach a common ground on a long-term deal, but there's no reason why they can't have him for this upcoming year. I think the tag is likely, with the hopes of reaching a longer term agreement and reducing the high cap hit. If this goal is not reached, they will be forced to pay him 9 1/2 million dollars this yr. Either way, he probably isn't going anywhere; at least for the upcoming season. Next yr may very well be a different story, only time will tell.

Seeing as how we will likely have Welker for 2012, you have to assume that a long term deal may NOT be reached, and prepared to eat the large 9.5 million cap hit under the tag. That will limit our FA options to some degree. Like I said, I believe the hopes are that a long term deal gets done, and they eventually get a lot lesser cap hit for the season; but if not, they will be somewhat limited in their spending.

That now leaves certain players (Belichick-type players) at the position like Reggie Wayne who will have a lot less of a cost than all of these fantasy guys that many here are throwing around. Wayne will give us a lot more than we had this yr, and we'd still have the battle between Ocho and Branch as the last depth option. I believe that Branch would be the favorite going in, due to the potential lower cost of resigning him and his extensive knowledge of the system/better rapport with Brady. That said, it makes sense to also keep Ocho through training camp too.

I think if Lloyd works out at a "fair" price, then Belichick may be all for it, but I don't see BB breaking the bank for some of these big-name WR's like Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace (still too raw with a lot of question marks for such high money), and even Marques Colston.

With over 600 free agents, I am sure that Belichick will utilize some of the mid-tier WR's as possible targets, but cost will still be a big part of the potential signings. I also believe that a WR is taken in this yr's draft, so that will also come into play come August when decisions need to be made.

To bottom line it, I believe that R.Wayne offers us the most for the price he will cost, and I also think that Belichick has his eye on him. Of course, that's just my opinion though.

Out of all of the positions, I believe that safety is the biggest free agent 'need' right now, and that may be where Belichick's bigger focus may be at the moment. Either way, no matter what--it will be an interesting free agency period.

All of this could change if a long term deal was reached with Welker prior to the March 13 day of free agency. That could make things significantly different, and we may even see a 'big' named defensive player signed if that were the case. Let's hope that they reach a longer term deal with Welker first, and then we'll go from there. Right now, he's certainly priority #1 at this juncture in time.

 

[supafly]

Welker's best friend from college coaches for the Jets. Rex seems to love Welker as a player. Wes would also presumably like to screw over the Pats for neglecting him. They'd find a way to make it work financially.

My suggestion for a Welker trade is Washington. If (a big if) they get Peyton, they I assume they'd Wayne would follow along. And at that point, they might as well go all out and have Peyton throwing to Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss, and Welker. Their 2nd round pick is probably a little optimistic for him, but you never know.

That way, the Pats keep him out of the division (specifically the Jets) and get something in return for him.

No disrespect intended, Sciz, but I think you are a bit paranoid and premature in worrying about Welker going to the NYJ.

I can't imagine ANY scenario where Wes Welker would want to "screw over the Pats for neglecting him."---Ever!!

If a long term deal is not reached, they will have to pay him the cost of the tag to keep him one more year. We've seen them pay the cost of the tag before, there's no reason to think they wouldn't do it with Brady's #1 offensive target...

As for the Jets, they are so incredibly strapped at the moment, they can't even tag their NT. They are also parting ways with Bart Scott and probably their safety too, Leonard. If they had the money, the first thing they would do is tag their NT. He is what the defense revolves around.

And even if they somehow found a way to do it, there's no way there's going to be anywhere close to enough 'bad blood' for Welker to end up signing with the freaking Jets..

 

[ATippett56]

Offense (base two tight end, two wide receivers, one running back alignment)

Cut wide receiver Chad "Ochostinko" Johnson
Re-sign wide receiver Wes Welker (4 years, $32 million total, $16 million guaranteed)
Re-sign wide receiver Deion Branch (veteran minimum plus incentives)
Re-sign offensive lineman Dan Connolly
Tender restricted free agent quarterback Brian Hoyer to a second round draft pick
Sign wide receiver Brandon Lloyd

If Brian Water retires, select a center in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft and move either Dan Connolly or Marcus Cannon to right guard.

Defense (base 3-4 two gap alignment)

Cut defensive lineman Mike Wright
Cut safety Josh Barrett
Sign defensive lineman Cory Redding (instead of ancient dinosaurs Shaun Ellis and Gerard Warren)
Sign defensive lineman Andre Carter (veteran minimum plus incentives)
Tender Exclusive Rights Free Agent defensive lineman Kyle Love

Special Teams

Re-sign special teams player Matt Slater (veteran minimum plus incentives)

2012 NFL Draft

3-4 Defensive End (first round)
3-4 Outside Linebacker (first or second round)
Cornerback (second round)
Safety or cornerback conversion to safety, refer to Eugene Wilson circa 2003 (second or third round)
Offensive Center (third round)
Wide Receiver (fourth round)

I suspect the New England Patriots will trade down the 31st overall and/or the 48th overall selection(s).

WalterFootball.com: 2012 NFL Draft Order

Sign as many undrafted safeties and cornerbacks as possible and pray.

 

[Sciz]

Getting Under the 2012 Salary Cap
Here's a good article about how the Jets can make a ton of cap room. Wayne Hunter will no longer be released as this article has done, but this still shows how they can save $14M from the 2012 cap, and that's a pretty modest number considering that they could also save some cap by redoing the deals of Revis, Pace, and Keller. If they want to make Pouha and Welker both fit, they can manage.

 

[Joker]

That article has more holes than a Dunkin' Donuts at 4 a.m.

 

[supafly]

Getting Under the 2012 Salary Cap
Here's a good article about how the Jets can make a ton of cap room. Wayne Hunter will no longer be released as this article has done, but this still shows how they can save $14M from the 2012 cap, and that's a pretty modest number considering that they could also save some cap by redoing the deals of Revis, Pace, and Keller. If they want to make Pouha and Welker both fit, they can manage.

You could always be right, Sciz, but with 30 other teams not named the NEP or NYJ, one would think that Welker wouldn't do that to this organization unless they somehow threw an excessively insane amount of money at him.

There are still a ton of other teams with much better cap room out there, and I would think they'd be a lot more in-play than the despised Jets.

There's also the thought that even if Welker did walk away, it wouldn't necessarily be on bad terms. I see absolutely no reason why he would suddenly 'stick it to them' just b/c another team offered him more money.

In either case, I still respect your opinion and thoughts, but I personally don't see #83 going to the hated NYJ.

 

[ATippett56]

That article has more holes than a Dunkin' Donuts at 4 a.m.

So does the New York Jets roster.

 

[robbomango]

Wes to the Jets, I guess he never wants to see a SB again.

SB run or 4 years of Sanchez ducks?

 

[resdubwhite]

Re-sign wide receiver Wes Welker (4 years, $32 million total, $16 million guaranteed)

My concern is a deal that long will affect The Re-up of Gronk and Hernandez.
If they can get out of the Welker deal with only 3 years that means they only have to play cap maths on one years of that deal. Get Welker for 3 years between 21-24.

Remember. Mayo deal kicks in in 2014 and Mankins also has to be paid. From memory Brady is set to earn 18 mill.

Even though the cap is going up its still a juggling act with Welker and the 2 TE's.