glm
In the Starting Line-Up
- Joined
- May 13, 2009
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Not saying this is the end all to be all, but it's intersting.
I basically took the expected wins of the teams (all explained here: Quarterback post-season records and Simpson’s Paradox » Pro-football-reference.com blog » Blog Archive, I was originally doing this to measure Brady during these seasons) and added them with their actual wins (did this for regular and postseason).
These are the results (The first number is the regular season expected and actual wins already added together, the next two are the postseason expected and actual wins):
07 Pats - 25.72 + 1.88 + 2 = 29.60.
04 Pats - 24.62 + 1.57 + 3 = 29.19.
03 Pats - 24.01 + 1.44 + 3 = 28.45.
06 Pats - 22.92 + 1.01 + 2 = 25.93.
11 Pats - 20.34 + 1.44 + 2 = 23.78.
01 Pats - 19.17 + 1.44 + 3 = 23.61.
10 Pats - 21.90 + 0.48 + 0 = 22.38.
05 Pats - 17.07 + 1.40 + 1 = 21.47.
09 Pats - 18.79 + 0.00 + 0 = 18.79.
02 Pats - 14.08 + 0.00 + 0 = 14.08.
Interesting to note, 2006 (10.92), 2004 (10.62), and 2003 (10.01) were all expected to more wins than 2007 (9.72).
Another thing, 2010 and 2011 were expected to be losing seasons (only 7.90 and 7.34, respectively). They were both lower than 2009 (8.79).
That's why 2007, 2010, and 2011 graded out as Brady's best seasons, without question (6.28, 6.10, 5.66, respectively) And if you're wondering about his worst seasons: 01 Brady (2.83), 09 Brady (1.21), and 06 Brady (1.08).
Thought it was interesting.
I basically took the expected wins of the teams (all explained here: Quarterback post-season records and Simpson’s Paradox » Pro-football-reference.com blog » Blog Archive, I was originally doing this to measure Brady during these seasons) and added them with their actual wins (did this for regular and postseason).
These are the results (The first number is the regular season expected and actual wins already added together, the next two are the postseason expected and actual wins):
07 Pats - 25.72 + 1.88 + 2 = 29.60.
04 Pats - 24.62 + 1.57 + 3 = 29.19.
03 Pats - 24.01 + 1.44 + 3 = 28.45.
06 Pats - 22.92 + 1.01 + 2 = 25.93.
11 Pats - 20.34 + 1.44 + 2 = 23.78.
01 Pats - 19.17 + 1.44 + 3 = 23.61.
10 Pats - 21.90 + 0.48 + 0 = 22.38.
05 Pats - 17.07 + 1.40 + 1 = 21.47.
09 Pats - 18.79 + 0.00 + 0 = 18.79.
02 Pats - 14.08 + 0.00 + 0 = 14.08.
Interesting to note, 2006 (10.92), 2004 (10.62), and 2003 (10.01) were all expected to more wins than 2007 (9.72).
Another thing, 2010 and 2011 were expected to be losing seasons (only 7.90 and 7.34, respectively). They were both lower than 2009 (8.79).
That's why 2007, 2010, and 2011 graded out as Brady's best seasons, without question (6.28, 6.10, 5.66, respectively) And if you're wondering about his worst seasons: 01 Brady (2.83), 09 Brady (1.21), and 06 Brady (1.08).
Thought it was interesting.