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So some of us get frustrated when BB trades down and gets an extra pick here and there instead of getting out binkey. Then we look at the roster and see that not all of those stockpiled picks make the team, and that makes us crazy and think perhaps BB is crazy.
Caught this video on the NFL network on the value of draft picks is the 3rd DE statistically a lot better than the 4th or 5th... seems it may not matter. IOW there is a lot of luck involved.
Food for thought as we approach another draft and see BB trade down:
NFL Videos: Football Freakonomics: Draft Luck
and the paper they refer to in this piece:
The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft | Berkeley.edu PDF
Yale School of Management
Call me crazy but I'm guessing BB and E Adams are sorta familiar with this stuff, maybe even talked to the authors...
Caught this video on the NFL network on the value of draft picks is the 3rd DE statistically a lot better than the 4th or 5th... seems it may not matter. IOW there is a lot of luck involved.
Food for thought as we approach another draft and see BB trade down:
NFL Videos: Football Freakonomics: Draft Luck
and the paper they refer to in this piece:
The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft | Berkeley.edu PDF
In this paper we offer some evidence on both of these important concepts in an unusual but
interesting context: the National Football League, specifically its annual draft of young players. Every year the National Football League (NFL) holds a draft in which teams take turns selecting players. A team that uses an early draft pick to select a player is implicitly forecasting that this player will do well. Of special interest to an economic analysis is that teams often trade picks. For example, a team might give up the 4th pick and get the 10th pick and the 21st pick in return. In aggregate, such trades reveal the market value of draft picks. We can compare these market values to the surplus value (to the team) of the players chosen with the draft picks. We define surplus value as the player’s performance value – estimated from the labor market for NFL veterans – less his compensation. In the example just mentioned, if the market for draft picks is rational then the surplus value of the player taken with the 4th pick should equal (on average) the combined surplus value of the players taken with picks 10 and 21.
Yale School of Management
Call me crazy but I'm guessing BB and E Adams are sorta familiar with this stuff, maybe even talked to the authors...
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