Greg Cosell from NFL films picks SB 46

[SVN]

Cosell Talks: And the Super winner is . . . . : NFL Films Blog

 

[Gumby]

Strong analysis by Cosell and I agree with both his points; but not his outcome or that there isn't a 3rd & 4th point.

I think he underweights the recent improvements in Pats secondary and finally getting a locked set of players back there.

3rd pt which he didn't address: Giants run D is suspect.

4th pt which he didn't address: SPECIAL TEAMS.
- Giants got 14 pts off a horrid 49ers ST performance. I am 90% confident the Pats ST is NOT going to give them such breaks. I think when it comes to the field position game Zoltan and Ghost are going to keep them starting at/behind the 20 and Pats will have a shorter field all day. If the Pats offense can be same or even only slightly less efficient than NYG that shorter field should mean they still pull it out.

so we shall see.

 

[blackglass3]

A very well written piece, even though I disagree with his outcome.

 

[Coach42]

How long can't the fact that the Pats have only allowed 18.8 points per game since the last lost be overlooked?? Way does PPG have to be the outlier and not Yards allowed?

 

[byfuglien]

Strong analysis by Cosell and I agree with both his points; but not his outcome or that there isn't a 3rd & 4th point.

I think he underweights the recent improvements in Pats secondary and finally getting a locked set of players back there.

3rd pt which he didn't address: Giants run D is suspect.

4th pt which he didn't address: SPECIAL TEAMS.
- Giants got 14 pts off a horrid 49ers ST performance. I am 90% confident the Pats ST is NOT going to give them such breaks. I think when it comes to the field position game Zoltan and Ghost are going to keep them starting at/behind the 20 and Pats will have a shorter field all day. If the Pats offense can be same or even only slightly less efficient than NYG that shorter field should mean they still pull it out.

so we shall see.

I think both of us have great punting games. Weatherford did a great job two weeks ago. And we know what Zoltan can do. We may see both offenses have to go 80+ yards to score TDs.

 

[byfuglien]

How long can't the fact that the Pats have only allowed 18.8 points per game since the last lost be overlooked?? Way does PPG have to be the outlier and not Yards allowed?

With regard to the playoffs, he really didn't think the Broncos and Ravens offenses were good. He even ripped the Ravens receivers before our game: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...osell-nfl-films-hammers-ravens-receivers.html

 

[mosi]

No one is giving the Pats a break. Their secondary has looked ugly for most of the year and the competition did not help.

The Giants come in having played 6 straight do or die games. And they have played well. They humiliated a pretty good Atlanta team. They shut down the Packers - say what you want but they won the game decisively. Their offense limited mistakes and waited for the 49ers to implode and they did. The Giants are playing very, very well. And they are confident. In the game of football, that means a lot. They expect to roll. This is the key. Can the Pats punch them in the mouth and let them know that it is going to be a long hard night?

The Pats need to score touchdowns early and win the field position battle. I re-watched the game from earlier this year and the Pats were very competitive. The Pats gave that game away and they know it. The fumbles and interceptions killed them. No turn-overs and the Pats win. If they loose the turnover battle, game over.

 

[VJCPatriot]

No one is giving the Pats a break. Their secondary has looked ugly for most of the year and the competition did not help.

Great! I love it when the Pats are the underdog.

The Giants come in having played 6 straight do or die games. And they have played well. They humiliated a pretty good Atlanta team. They shut down the Packers - say what you want but they won the game decisively. Their offense limited mistakes and waited for the 49ers to implode and they did. The Giants are playing very, very well. And they are confident. In the game of football, that means a lot. They expect to roll. This is the key. Can the Pats punch them in the mouth and let them know that it is going to be a long hard night?

And the Pats have won 10 straight games. Each has accomplished much on the way to the Superbowl. What it comes down to is the matchups, the gameplans, and the execution this Super Sunday.

The Pats need to score touchdowns early and win the field position battle. I re-watched the game from earlier this year and the Pats were very competitive. The Pats gave that game away and they know it. The fumbles and interceptions killed them. No turn-overs and the Pats win. If they loose the turnover battle, game over.

Pats have lost the turnover battle and come back to win tough games before. Pats have been behind by 21 points and come back to win before. The Giants arent the only ones that know how to win ugly. This Pats team fights for the whole 60 minutes. This gives me a lot more confidence in the 2011 Pats than say the 2010 edition. Of course I prefer that the Pats start fast and get the lead early to put pressure on the Giants, but I am not conceding any game even with a slow start. And neither are our Patriots.

I respect Cosells opinion. He's certainly entitled to have one. But I see the Pats double tight end offense as the harder one to stop this Sunday. And our OL is elite. It's not just the tight ends chipping that makes our pass protection so good. I believe that after the Pats Superbowl win, that the entire 'copycat' NFL will seriously look into drafting/obtaining two talented tight ends and using the double tight end set to dictate matchups. Just the same way the NFL has come to mimic BB's success with the 3-4 defense.

 

[SVN]

Great! I love it when the Pats are the underdog.



And the Pats have won 10 straight games. Each has accomplished much on the way to the Superbowl. What it comes down to is the matchups, the gameplans, and the execution this Super Sunday.



Pats have lost the turnover battle and come back to win tough games before. Pats have been behind by 21 points and come back to win before. The Giants arent the only ones that know how to win ugly. This Pats team fights for the whole 60 minutes. This gives me a lot more confidence in the 2011 Pats than say the 2010 edition. Of course I prefer that the Pats start fast and get the lead early to put pressure on the Giants, but I am not conceding any game even with a slow start. And neither are our Patriots.

I respect Cosells opinion. He's certainly entitled to have one. But I see the Pats double tight end offense as the harder one to stop this Sunday. And our OL is elite. It's not just the tight ends chipping that makes our pass protection so good. I believe that after the Pats Superbowl win, that the entire 'copycat' NFL will seriously look into drafting/obtaining two talented tight ends and using the double tight end set to dictate matchups. Just the same way the NFL has come to mimic BB's success with the 3-4 defense.

Iam not sure our offense will be that explosive in this game especially early on.Most SB's the defenses are charged to start the game and will fade by the 4th quarter. There will be some growing pains like all games we had except the denver game. Clearly its going to come down to defense as everyone knows. Has the pats D improved sufficiently enough to stop a top tier offense considering they hardly played a decent passing team in the last few weeks? Can the D get off on 3rd and long and force some turnovers ? Can the game be close enough by the 4th Q by which I expect the defenses to wear out and the game becomes a shootout ?I think this is really the key which cosell seems to point out ...not the Giants pass rush or our two tight end offense for that matter. It really is on the guys upfront -wilfork and co to decide the outcome of this game.

 

[Ring 6]

With regard to the playoffs, he really didn't think the Broncos and Ravens offenses were good. He even ripped the Ravens receivers before our game: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...osell-nfl-films-hammers-ravens-receivers.html

This is the kind of thinking that weakens analysis. He didn't like the Ravens WRs, so therefore us beating them is diminshed. Did he like the 49er offense?
His only look at the Giants defense is whether we can stop their great pass rush, yet nothing about how that defense that allowed 25 ppg has no chance to cover our receivers, even moreso than how our defense will have trouble with theirs.
Finally, if both teams have receivers open, who do you want throwing to them?
I love how Eli wins vs SF ONLY because of 2 punt fumbles inside the red zone, and otherwise puts up 10 points, but somehow he is elite. Less than 2 months ago, ELi was a QB of a 6-6 team that hadn't made the playoffs for 3 straight years. Leopards do not change their spots. They have played well, beaten a medicore Falcon team, a very good Packer team, and a SF team that beats them easily if not for fluky plays, but behind all of that is a team that is not far from .500 with many weaknesses, that BB will exploit.

 

[mgcolby]

Strong analysis by Cosell and I agree with both his points; but not his outcome or that there isn't a 3rd & 4th point.

I think he underweights the recent improvements in Pats secondary and finally getting a locked set of players back there.

3rd pt which he didn't address: Giants run D is suspect.

4th pt which he didn't address: SPECIAL TEAMS.
- Giants got 14 pts off a horrid 49ers ST performance. I am 90% confident the Pats ST is NOT going to give them such breaks. I think when it comes to the field position game Zoltan and Ghost are going to keep them starting at/behind the 20 and Pats will have a shorter field all day. If the Pats offense can be same or even only slightly less efficient than NYG that shorter field should mean they still pull it out.

so we shall see.

Suspect? Their run D was bad during the regular season and has been absolute trash the past two games. And GB's run game was nothing to write home about.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

It's pre ordained in the mediot world the Giants will win.

Therefore, they have to come up with something.

If Denver and Baltimore were so bad, how exactly do they shred the "elite" Pittsburgh defense?

Either these guys money on the Patriots or they really, really dislike BB.....because there is little explanation for the selective analysis that is going on.

 

[Lansdowne]

Doomed, I tells ya! DOOOOOOOMED!!!

 

[Uncle Rico]

One of the things I saw Bedard mention in a Twitter exchange with (I think) a Green Bay writer is that a big weakness of the Packers' D was over-aggressiveness by the DBs. Always going for the pick (and they certainly had their share). They seemed to think that hurt against the Giants. Now, I didn't follow the Packers enough in detail to know if this is accurate, but I trust Bedard. I think the Pats will play a more disciplined approach. They'll give up yards but I also think they'll have success in keeping the WRs from getting away too much (he said crossing his fingers for good luck).

 

[groundgame]

One of the strangest point spread / outcome sentiment oddities ever. This is not a pick-im spread, it is N.E. favored by 3, and the overall mood being preached by the media feels like NYG's favored by 7.

 

[asfpnepRefugee]

How long can't the fact that the Pats have only allowed 18.8 points per game since the last lost be overlooked?? Way does PPG have to be the outlier and not Yards allowed?

To be fair, they also haven't faced as strong of a passing attack as this one since the last loss.

 

[patfanken]

I've always liked Cossell. He does his homework then gives his opinion. He is NOT a mediot, even if he picked the Giants. He acknowledges this was a hard pick. He gives a point to both sides. He backs his opinion with some fact, not just opinion or misinformation.

He is one of the few observers who recognizes that the Giants DL is not going to be the factor that "everyone" thinks they are. To get to Brady they are going to have to blitz and blitzing Brady is not a sound tactic. Of course I have to wonder if being born, bred, and living in NYC taints....just a bit, his thought process.

BTW - I have to disagree with his thoughts on the Ravens receivers. The combination of Bolden, Smith, and the 2 TEs is as good as anyone's situation. Smith had a great rookie year and was coming fast at the end of the season. Boldin is as good a possession receiver as their is in the league, and their TE situation is Patriot-light. And he completely ignores the contribution Rice made to the passing attack.

Bottom line, Cossell thinks if the Giants DL is not going to be a big factor in this game, and the Pats secondary can't cover the Giants receivers, then its going to be a shoot out. He evidently picks Eli over Brady. Bad pick, Greg.

 

[Catch42]

Suspect? Their run D was bad during the regular season and has been absolute trash the past two games. And GB's run game was nothing to write home about.

Are you counting the QB runs the past 2 weeks when you say they are complete trash?

 

[mgcolby]

Are you counting the QB runs the past 2 weeks when you say they are complete trash?

Yup, a QB scramble is essentially the same as a draw and the result of over aggressiveness by the D-line. Should they not count?

 

[jnug]

I think that if we win this game it will be because of one of the greatest SB team efforts we will have ever seen.

We have not faced a passing offense like what the Giants have in the 10 win streak. Their wide receivers are both big and strong and can really wreck havoc after the catch. Manning is young, tough and resilient.

I see it as a shoot out and unfortunately one of the Pats biggest weapons if not the biggest outside of Brady himself is injured and will not be at 100%. I don't think the Pats will have had enough time to figure out how to keep him away from guys at the line of scrimmage either. Take it to the bank, the Giants will grab Gronk right at the line of scrimmage and force him to push off on that ankle every play until it finally gives way. That will likely force Gronk to line up outside. I guess we have already announced that Gronk would not play in this game if it were not the SB. Not exactly what i wanted to hear.

I hate Pollard like you cannot believe because every tackle he makes is an intent to injure. Not only is it an intent to injure it is a cheap shot intent to injure as opposed to a hard hit intended to knock the snot out of ya'. But that is a different discussion.

The Pats will have to find a way to use what Gronk is capable of doing without pushing him into too many situations where the Giants will simply be able to force him to work that ankle until it finally gives up or the Pats will have to assume it is just going to give way at some point and just use him like normal until it does.

In either event the Pats will be left somehow finding a way to make up for the production Gronk will not be able to give them. I even think there is a chance that Ocho makes a contribution here. Everybody is going to have to contribute for us to win this game.

I think we will have to see more running from the Pats than we are used to seeing and more no huddle to wear out the Giants front. Then the Pats will not have to depend on Gronk for so much of their offense and Brady will have the time to find other guys. Brady will have to bring back the kind of play action fakery that was really pretty special in his first few years as our starting QB. We will have to win the turnover battle even if we only get one and they get none. We need to have none in any event.

If we win I think it will be by a field goal late so no chokes please in that department and I think we will come away saying this is the greatest team victory in a SB we have seen since....well....the Pats dismantled the vaunted Rams.

I have no choice but to believe we will do it as I cannot stomach the idea of that jackass Pollard having limited Gronks ability to play in this game and I cannot stomach the loud mouth Giants fans who are already claiming we don't deserve to be here. Both of these teams deserve to be here and you would not have heard a single Pat's fan talking about the 9er's having gifted the Giants into the SB on two punt team errors if the Giant fans had not started the whole idiotic discussion.