No, they successfully picked the Steelers over us this year.
We were favorites by about 2-3 pts.
In theory, that is probably a lot more true than false, but they don't 'always' pick the fave.
Accuscore pics the statistical favorite based on their input of stats but it doesn't take into consideration areas such as the chances of a player due to an injury and the effect of that player on a team. It predicts simply based on history up until that point. There's no way it can predict the effect of certain developing changes throughout the week leading up to the game. It would be way off the mark for example if your starting QB got hurt. They only see it as a marginal drop in difference based on stats, but in reality, it has a much bigger effect due to effect on all the things not measured by numbers.
Don't think it's that advanced. Yard per point's been more accurate than accuscore with a 7-3 playoff record based on regular season stats. ESPN and their analysts appear do a great job of re-inventing the wheel to come out with something worse than what we already had.
Here's one simple method of using yards per point.
Patriots Offense: 13.2 yards per point against an average defense
Giants Offense: 15.5 yards per point against an average defense.
NE's offense: 127% more yards compared to an average offense(335.8 yards)
Giants offense: 115% more yards compared to an average offense
Patriots defense: 401.5 yards per game against an average offense.
Giants defense: 367.7 yards per game against an average offense.
Expected total yards gained for each offense:
Giants: 461.7
Patriots: 467.0
Expected points:
Patriots 467/13.2 = 35.4 = 35 points
Giants: 461.7/15.5 = 29.8 = 30 points
Final score at an even turnover margin: Patriots 35 - Giants 30
Final score will differ, but what's important is that yards per point predicts a Patriot win and the fact that it
should cover the 3 point spread at an even turnover margin.
Now if anyone can tell me how to predict turnovers, it would be great
Here's one very complicated and half ass attempt at predicting the unpredictable(not recommended):
Forced Fumble Recoveries:
Giants recovered 0.84 "forced" fumbles per game(5 of their 16 came in the playoffs though)
Patriots recovered 0.67 forced fumbles per game(1 in the playoffs)
Interceptions:
Tom Brady: 681 passing attempts & 15 interceptions = 1 int per 45.4 attempts
Eli Manning: 712 passing attempts & 17 interceptions = 1 int per 41.9 attempts
Passing offense:
Patriots: 315.8 or 138% against an average pass defense(228.1ypg)
Giants: 294.5 or 129 % against an average pass defense.
Expected offensive passing yards:
Patriots: 246.5 yards(Giants D) * 138% = 340.2 yards
Giants: 282.9 yards(Pats D) * 129% = 364.9 yards
Ok this is the part I seriously do not condone doing for predicting but....
Expected Attempts needed:
Patriots: 340.2/ 8.3ypa = 41 passing attempts
Giants: 364.9/ 7.9ypa = 46.2 passing attempts(Poor Eli, better get that arm ready)
Expected Interceptions:
Brady: 41 attempts/ 45.4 = 0.90 interceptions
Eli: 46.2/ 41.9 = 1.1 interceptions
Expected Turnovers:
Patriots .9 ints + .84(Giants FFR) = 1.74 turnovers.
Eli: 1.1 ints + .67 (Pats FFR) = 1.77 turnovers
Predicted turnover margin:
Patriots + 0.03, so even with microscopical slight edge to the Pats.
*Ok but in a perfect world, since Eli's expected to need to pass 46 times to get the expected 364 passing yards against NE he
should throw an interception since he throws 1 every 42 pass attempts. And Tom Brady
shouldn't throw one. Of course we know they don't all come at en exact rate of 1 every 46 times or 1 every 42, but when also taking into consideration that the Giants "forced" fumble recoveries are clearly inflated in the playoffs because we all saw how they happened, the Pats
should still come out +1 in turnovers when it's all said and done.
So with that extra bit of "adjusted" real life logic, a + 1 turnover margin would mean roughly a 3.5 points +/- swing for each team.
Adjusted scores:
*Expected: Patriots +1
Patriots 35.4 + 3.5 = 38.9 = 39 points
Giants 29.8 -3.5 = 26.4 = 26 points
*Unexpected: Giants +1
Patriots 35.4 -3.5 = 31.9 = 32 points
Giants 29.8+ 3.5 = 33.2 = 33 points
Final score predictions:
Even turnover margin: Patriots 35 - Giants 30
*Expected turnover margin: Patriots +1
Patriots 39 - Giants 26
Either way, they should cover the 3 point spread and this doesn't predict a 3 point game unless they lose the turnover battle. With a +1 they'll blow it out of the water. If Pats lose the turnover margin, Giants could win by 1 point(this would SUCK!), but thankfully, this is not expected. It's also an indication that Patriots could still win despite a - turnover margin, which wouldn't be the first time. It should also be noted that their 2 turnovers against the Ravens only cost the Pats 3 points. Brady knows where to throw them. So they're not really going to get hurt by 3.5 points per turnover(which is average), though they would
still gain 3.5 points from one, which would still give the edge to the Pats even if the unexpected occurs.
So basically, Giants can't win unless they win the turnover battle and a +1 turnover margin might still not be enough. Since both teams are expected to have at least 1-2 turnovers, that means the Patriots would need to turnover the ball 3-4 times in order for the Giants to have a chance at coming out +2 and "win the game"..... statistically. Interestingly, isn't this exactly what happened in the first game? So only a repeat of the turnover mess will cost the Pats a Super Bowl.
PS: And none of this counts if the same teams that have played this season don't show up playing the same way on Sunday...or if Gronk's out. Fun. Don't blame me if you lose your money
