Defenses vs. the Run

[ivanvamp]

Pretty much everyone is focusing on the passing offenses (and defenses stopping the pass). But what about the run?

Continuing my theme (from the "pressure the QB" thread) of looking at these teams' last 5 games, here are the numbers...

Giants
at NYJ: NYG: 26-115 yds, 4.4 ypc; NYJ: 25-105 yds, 4.2 ypc
vs Dal: NYG: 31-106 yds, 3.4 ypc; Dal: 16-49 yds, 3.1 ypc
vs Atl: NYG: 31-172 yds, 5.5 ypc; Atl: 21-64 yds, 3.0 ypc
at GB: NYG: 27-95 yds, 3.5 ypc; GB: 23-147 yds, 6.4 ypc
at SF: NYG: 26-85 yds, 3.3 ypc; SF: 28-150 yds, 5.4 ypc
AVG: NYG: 28.2-114.6 yds, 4.1 ypc; Opp: 22.6-103.0, 4.6 ypc

Patriots
at Den: NE: 36-141 yds, 3.9 ypc; Den: 31-252 yds, 8.1 ypc
vs Mia: NE: 31-119 yds, 3.8 ypc; Mia: 28-121 yds, 4.3 ypc
vs Buf: NE: 29-138 yds, 4.8 ypc; Buf: 20-106 yds, 5.3 ypc
vs Den: NE: 30-146 yds, 4.9 ypc; Den: 40-144 yds, 3.6 ypc
vs Bal: NE: 31-96 yds, 3.1 ypc; Bal: 31-116 yds, 3.7 ypc
AVG: NE: 31.4-128.0 yds, 4.1 ypc; Opp: 30.0-147.8 yds, 4.9 ypc

So we see that the Pats have run the ball a little more effectively than the Giants have over their last 5 games, respectively. But the Pats' run D has been considerably worse. HOWEVER, look at the last two games:

NY: 53-180 yds, 3.4 ypc; Opp: 51-297 yds, 5.8 ypc
NE: 61-242 yds, 4.0 ypc; Opp: 71-260 yds, 3.7 ypc

Clearly, the past two games have seen the Patriots' running game - AND RUN DEFENSE - outperform the Giants', in both counts.

But what about the quality of opposition? Here are the rushing offense and rushing defense rankings of each of their opponents:

NYG
NYJ - #22 off, #13 def
Dal - #18 off, #7 def
Atl - #17 off, #6 def
GB - #27 off, #14 def
SF - #8 off, #1 def
AVG - #18.4 off, #8.2 def

NE
Den - #1 off, #22 def
Mia - #11 off, #3 def
Buf - #13 off, #28 def
Den - #1 off, #22 def
Bal - #10 off, #2 def
AVG - #7 off, #15.4 def

So the Pats have faced *MUCH* better running games, which helps explain why their run defense has been worse than the Giants' over their past 5 games. However, again, look at their last 2 games. Facing the #1 and #10 rushing offenses in the NFL, the Pats have yielded fewer yards and FAR fewer yards per attempt compared to the Giants, who were facing the #27 and #8 rushing offenses in the NFL.

The last thread I started demonstrated that the Giants' ability to put pressure on the other teams' QB (remember, we're just talking during the last 5 games, which constitute the "Giants are the hottest team in the league" period) was equaled by the Patriots' unheralded group.

In this thread I think it's clear that the Pats' run defense is vastly outplaying the Giants' run defense. Over 5 games, the raw numbers favor the Giants, but (a) the Pats have faced much better run offenses, and (b) over the past two games the Pats' run defense has performed significantly better than the Giants', especially considering the quality of run offenses they've faced.

 

[BelizePats]

This is great work man.
I really hope we pound the rock on Giants early and often. I think we can run on this D and it sets them up for highly effective play action.
Hit 'em early with the Law Firm and then with then Ridley. (who learned his lesson with being inactive during last weeks game, for the fumble against Denver the week before)

 

[Patspsycho]

Nice breakdown.

 

[Giantsworld]

Well done on this thread, but you have to think of how skued the numbers are. Of course the Packers arent a big statistical run team, but it isnt because they cant run, its because of how they run their offense. The pass much more then run and that is purely the way the system is set up.

IMO, the Giants have moved up the charts on run stopping. They held down Frank Gore, and Michael Turner who both were killing it rescently.

Giants were ranked 32nd in the league in running the ball during the regular season, but, as you have shown, they are a lot better rescently. 49ers have the BEST run D in the game. So they are trending up.

The Giants biggest thing they need to do to stop or at least slow down the Pats offense is contain those TEs. Im pretty sure BB will switch up the gameplan somehow, but I wouldnt be shocked if the Giants do as well.

Should be a great game.

24-27... Something like that.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Thanks for all these breakdowns!

One more note is that the QBs have ran for 13-108 yds, 8.3ypc. I don't think that QB scrambles will play as large a part for the Pats, but the numbers for other runs are still 38-189 yds, 4.9ypc. These are still good numbers and provide support for the idea that the Pats should stick with the run for this game.

I think with a less mobile QB it'll be very important for the Pats to use their no huddle to create the matchups they want and then take advantage of these matchups.

 

[ivanvamp]

Well done on this thread, but you have to think of how skued the numbers are. Of course the Packers arent a big statistical run team, but it isnt because they cant run, its because of how they run their offense. The pass much more then run and that is purely the way the system is set up.

IMO, the Giants have moved up the charts on run stopping. They held down Frank Gore, and Michael Turner who both were killing it rescently.

They didn't hold down Frank Gore. Gore had 76 yards on just 16 carries for a 4.6 average. The 49ers ran for 150 yards and a 5.4 average on the Giants.

Meanwhile, the Patriots held the #1 rushing team in the NFL (Denver) to fewer yards than the Giants gave up to SF (the #8 rushing team in the NFL) - just 144 yds and a 3.6 average.

So I'm not sure what you're talking about.

Giants were ranked 32nd in the league in running the ball during the regular season, but, as you have shown, they are a lot better rescently. 49ers have the BEST run D in the game. So they are trending up.

The Giants' running game for the most part has been pretty bad, but the Pats cannot afford to sleep on it or Jacobs and Bradshaw will kill them. The Pats and the Giants faced the #2 and #1 run defenses in the NFL this past weekend in Baltimore and SF, respectively. Here's how they did:

NE (vs. #2 Bal): 31-96, 3.1 ypc
NY (vs. #1 SF): 26-85, 3.3 ypc

Very similar.

The Giants biggest thing they need to do to stop or at least slow down the Pats offense is contain those TEs. Im pretty sure BB will switch up the gameplan somehow, but I wouldnt be shocked if the Giants do as well.

Should be a great game.

24-27... Something like that.

I agree...I'll be very surprised if this isn't a down-to-the-wire kind of game.