Idle thoughts - the match up begins

[patfanken]

OK, its never too early to start talking about THE game. Here is a little primmer to start the conversation.

1. The 2007 game is completely irrelevant. All we need to know is that the Giants are are better offensively, and the Pats offense while just as good but vastly different that the one that played that fateful day. There are 46 Patriots who don't really care what happened then. P ;There are 36 Giants who couldn't give a sh!t either

2. All 2007 is, is a media story line, and the only factor it will be on THIS game is its potential cathartic effect it would have on Pats fans.

3. If we really want to compare teams we have to go back to week nine and the very close 24-20 loss. Here is where the discussion of the 2 teams should start.

4. The Giants were without 3 key players. Nix and Bradshaw on offense and Akamura the CB on defense- All three will play in this game

5. On the Pats side we lost BOTH Chung and Barrett during the game, and I think this was one of the games Connolly missed

6. This at the start of this game the Pats D was healthy Chung Barrett and Spikes all played, so its no coincidence that it was also one of the best games the Pats played on defense (relatively speaking). Here are some interesting stats

a. The Pats forced the Giants to punt 8 times

b. Manning's 3rd down completion rate was 28% (in comparison, Flacco's was over 60%)

c. And despite giving them 4 more possessions due to turnovers, the Pats defense allowed him only 250 yds passing

d. A key under reported stat was that the Pats also gave them 30 more penalty yds AND 3 first downs due to penalties. Obviously this has to improve

e. Arrington had a ticky tack PI that led to a Giant score, and Brown had that horrid needless PI that directly led to the winning TD. This was the game that proved to BB that WR's were a better option at Safety

f. The man guarding the TE on the winning TD was Tracy White- 'nuff said.

7. The offense created a LOT of yards (438) but relatively few points. The 4 TO's didn't help, as well as Goskowski's missed FG.

a. The Giant defense was pretty much the same one we will see, except for the addition of Akamura in the DB

b. The Pats had 87 penalty yds, and a lot of that happened on offense. Way too many for a home game.

c. We averaged 4.4 ypc in the run game but only had 24 attempts

8. Now all that was a half a season ago and much has happened on both teams that bodes well for them.

9. Here is one interesting stat from NFCCG. And I think it was telling. Eli threw the ball 62 times in what amounted to close to 5 quarters of play. He was sacked 7 times and hit an amazing 20 times during that game. Now I know we don't have the pass rush that the Niners have, but its getting better.

10. This tells us 2 things. One the Giants OL is suspect. Two, Eli Manning is one tough dude. That was a tremendous display of courage and grace under pressure. He made some big time throws under torrid fire, and came back for more. He quite frankly, is the anti-Manning Manning

Summary- I purposely didn't do much analysis here. I just put down some stats and facts from the season to start the discussion on what they mean. Add your own and lets talk about what they mean. A great case can be made for BOTH teams to win this game, that's why it should be a 60 minute nail biter....or not

 

[Uncle Rico]

...

c. We averaged 4.4 ypc in the run game but only had 24 attempts

One thing that stood out form that game — the first I had gone to in a long time — is it was the debut of the three-TE set, with Solder the third. Expected more runs, especially after some early success. Not sure if going 3-TE was something they saw would work against the Giants or just something the Pats wanted to experiment with in general.

 

[patfanken]

One thing that stood out form that game — the first I had gone to in a long time — is it was the debut of the three-TE set, with Solder the third. Expected more runs, especially after some early success. Not sure if going 3-TE was something they saw would work against the Giants or just something the Pats wanted to experiment with in general.

Interesting insight Rico. They are keep Volmer on the roster for a reason. While I doubt they would just throw him out there after all this time to start in the biggest game of the year, I'm sure they love to get him some reps at RT with Solder as the TE.

 

[Deus Irae]

Since you're not starting out with a lot of analysis, let me toss a tidbit out for pondering:

In the first meeting, neither team scored in the first half.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Another difference between this game and the first - Hernandez and Woodhead were not full speed, and are now. Hernandez at full strength is a huge difference as he gives us the legit #3 option and Woodhead is a considerable difference.

However another potential negative change could be Gronk's ankle, which might not be QUITE as severe as AH since Gronk doesn't rely as much on lateral quickness.

I don't see Brady losing a 3rd straight game to Eli, and I don't see him playing a 2nd straight subpar game. This is his and BB's best shot at redemption for the spygate/18-1 heartbreaks, IMO they can't afford to not convert.

 

[Sciz]

Since you're not starting out with a lot of analysis, let me toss a tidbit out for pondering:

In the first meeting, neither team scored in the first half.

And adding to that a little, the Pats' defense was playing very well until Spikes was hurt. After he got hurt, things went downhill. After Chung was also hurt. We saw about 3 plays of hell.

 

[DarrylS]

I agree that the 2007 game may be irrelevant, but in the deep recesses of the minds of BB and TB this still looms large, they want another chance..

What evil will lurk in the minds of these men???

 

[patfanken]

And adding to that a little, the Pats' defense was playing very well until Spikes was hurt. After he got hurt, things went downhill. After Chung was also hurt. We saw about 3 plays of hell.

Essentially after that game we were without Barrett, Chung, and Spikes until game 16 when Chung came back. It wasn't the cause of all our defensive woes, but it didn't help. Here is some analysis on why the defense seems to have gotten for the playoffs.

1. Getting Chung and Spikes back

2. Moving McCourty back to safety in certain sub packages

3. The amazing development of Sterling Moore

4. Love and Deadrick continuing to improve as the light seems to be going on for both of them. I wish I could say the same for Brace. I guess the only thing we can say about him is "wait til next year"

5. The sudden appearance of a more explosive Sean Ellis, who seemingly spent the season recovering from his off season hip surgery and now is prepared to play

6. The transformation of Mark Jackson from a pass rush specialist into a more rounded DE/OLB, though he's clearly a work in progress.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Was Vollmer available for that game? If not Solder hdd to be making his first or second rookie start there.

 

[NEP4Life]

Vollmer played many snaps at RT in the game, with Solder as the third TE.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

The Patriots are 3-3 in superbowl appearances. I'd prefer to stay on the winning side .

 

[letekro]

6. The transformation of Mark Jackson from a pass rush specialist into a more rounded DE/OLB, though he's clearly a work in progress.

Quite a transformation, indeed.

http://magtrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/nba_g_jackson3_400.jpg

 

[NEP4Life]

Rewatching the regular season meeting, on Brady's first pick, #59 Boley came up in run support, saw that it was a pass, dropped back into coverage and got a piece of the ball to create the interception for Kiwanuka. Great play, and unfortunately, Boley's athleticism matches up well against the Pats' fondness for short passes over the middle.

Added: The pick came on 2nd and 7, with the Giants in a cover-1 look with #26 Rolle rolled up for run support. Branch, the intended receiver, appeared to round off his route to avoid the deep safety, but the Mike, Boley, got back into coverage so fast, Brady didn't appear to expect it.

More: With the Pats 1st and 10, 6:27 to go in the 2nd, the Giants have 10 men within 5 yards of the line, even though the Pats have 3 receivers spread left. They seem to like that cover-1 in base situations -- not afraid of the deep ball.

And more: 5:09 to go in the 2nd, Wendell in at C, the Giants sacked Brady on a 4-man rush with (you guessed it) pressure up the middle. *sigh*

 

[Deus Irae]

Vollmer played many snaps at RT in the fame, with Solder as the third TE.

The Vollmer situation could get very interesting if he's healthy enough to play. Does BB put the better player in the lineup, even though he's bound to be rusty? Or, going in another direction, does BB go with what's worked in the playoffs, even though Solder's clearly a weaker link on the line and could get exploited by a team like the Giants?

 

[zipster9]

The Vollmer situation could get very interesting if he's healthy enough to play. Does BB put the better player in the lineup, even though he's bound to be rusty? Or, going in another direction, does BB go with what's worked in the playoffs, even though Solder's clearly a weaker link on the line and could get exploited by a team like the Giants?

Sadly, I think Vollmer will be done..

As for the Giants, the player that scares me is Hakim Nicks.. He is tall and good hands.. He did not play in game 9, and I think we need to double team him...

 

[robbomango]

Just a little stat comparison from week 9 2011 game

Passing
player...att......comp.......%..........yds........avg.......td......int.......sck....scky.......rate
TB........28........49........57.1........342........7.0........2........2........2........10........75.4
EM.......20.........39........51.3........250........6.4........2........1........0..........0........77.9

Receivers
player....rec.......yds.......avg..........td
Cruz.......6.........91.......15.2..........0
Wes.......9........136.......15.1..........0

TE's
Gronk......8........101.......12.6..........1
Jake B.....4.........67........16.8..........1

 

[ay-yo]

Here's my offensive idea:

The Giants like to run a 4 man line with JPP / Tuck / Osi / Canty. I haven't watched enough of them to know if those 4 will start or if they'll have a DT in there for 1 of 3 DE's but they do use that line often. Only Canty (316) is above 280 pounds.

From the ACE personnel we should start out passing with Gronk and AH spread out wide. Once the 3rd DE comes in bring the TE's back in and slam it down their throats. We should be BLOWING that DL of the LOS.

Now for the fun part. I want to see no huddle with 4 or 5 straight runs. Don't let that extra DE off the field. I want to physically punish the Giants. Wear them down and demoralize them.

 

[patfanken]

I think there's no doubt that the Giants will be able to put pressure on Brady, and a couple of sacks and several hurries are also inevitable, but the overall strength of the Pats OL will ultimately win the day. One of the most irritating things about the Ravens game, was Brady's ineffectiveness, DESPITE the fact that the vaunted Ravens pass rush was largely ineffective. I think when you compare the two OL's you will find that that's the biggest advantage the Pats have over the Giants.

 

[NEPats1]

Mangini on radio saying Giants are going to put 8 in the box and make it really cloudy in the middle of the field between the numbers, the area where NE usually owns with Welker and the TE's. Put frankly he said the WR's for NE have to make plays and win their matchup b/c they will have many opportunities.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Mangini on radio saying Giants are going to put 8 in the box and make it really cloudy in the middle of the field between the numbers, the area where NE usually owns with Welker and the TE's. Put frankly he said the WR's for NE have to make plays and win their matchup b/c they will have many opportunities.

Maybe Hernandez can play the role of Veronon Davis and make the cut to the outside and down the sidelines. Gronk may be slightly limited and probably the better threat over the middle.