Patriots are early 3.5 point favorites over the Giants

[PatriotSeven]

NYG has a better D...at least D line. Their receivers are better and their RBs are better. Our advantage is at TE and QB (not significant based on the aforementioned D lines). Not sure what any of this means other than the fact that players will need to make plays. TB cannot miss wide open targets or throw balls up for grabs in triple coverage. We cannot fumble on special teams and we need to run the ball effectively.

It may come down to last possession wins. I hope we can get them but I am uneasy. Very uneasy.

That's the debatable. What's not is The Patriots have a better OVERALL defense.

And yes TB CAN throw balls up for grabs in triple coverage because he's smart enough to know when it's ok to do it. Obviously. Eli can't though. Eli has to play perfect. Brady doesn't.

If both teams play perfect, Patriots will beat them soundly.
If both teams play averages, Patriots will beat them soundly.
If Patriots play average and Giants play average, Patriots win a close game.
If Patriots play like crap, they lose. And it would probably still be a close game.

This Giants lost games by:

13 points on Dec 18th to one of the most inefficient teams in football, Washington.
25 points to the Saints.
7 to Philadelphia, another terrible inefficient offense.
7 to the 49ers the first time around when they were -1 in takeaways, yet could only beat them by 3 despite a +2 turnover margin(Where the hell is the improvement? There is none.)
11 points to Seattle
14 points to Washington.

The Giants are good. The Patriots are great.

The worst loss of the season for the Patriots was by 8 points and the other two were by 4 points or less.

It's all about the turnovers. If the Giants lose this battle, it will not come down to the last possession. It will end in the third quarter.

 

[Double TE]

I hope you're right as this looks like a different NYG team in the playoffs. Did anyone see how Wash was able to beat them? Pass rush?

Thanks.

 

[Fball]

That's the debatable. What's not is The Patriots have a better OVERALL defense.

And yes TB CAN throw balls up for grabs in triple coverage because he's smart enough to know when it's ok to do it. Obviously. Eli can't though. Eli has to play perfect. Brady doesn't.

If both teams play perfect, Patriots will beat them soundly.
If both teams play averages, Patriots will beat them soundly.
If Patriots play average and Giants play average, Patriots win a close game.
If Patriots play like crap, they lose. And it would probably still be a close game.

This Giants lost games by:

13 points on Dec 18th to one of the most inefficient teams in football, Washington.
25 points to the Saints.
7 to Philadelphia, another terrible inefficient offense.
7 to the 49ers the first time around when they were -1 in takeaways, yet could only beat them by 3 despite a +2 turnover margin(Where the hell is the improvement? There is none.)
11 points to Seattle
14 points to Washington.

The Giants are good. The Patriots are great.

The worst loss of the season for the Patriots was by 8 points and the other two were by 4 points or less.

It's all about the turnovers. If the Giants lose this battle, it will not come down to the last possession. It will end in the third quarter.

Giants schedule was brutal this year; one of the toughest in the league.

The playoffs are just a new season. Regular season records are kind of out the window. That Pats did play the Giants earlier, and that one could have gone either way. Both teams have improved since then.

I can't see how this isn't a close game, unless the lights are too bright for one team and it gets away from them early, like SB's of old....

 

[Ron Sellers]

Makes sense in the context of betting. People love betting on the Pats.

Back over here in reality, the Giants should be favored. They beat us at home without one of their starting WRs and they are playing their best ball of the year, right now.

I can't see how we're favored in this one honestly. The Giants beat us at home earlier this year without Bradshaw or Nicks. Not only that but if I had to guess which way the crowd at the game is leaning, I'd guess Giants since they seem to travel a bit better than we do.

I have seen and heard a fair amount of similar comments from Pats fans in the last 24 hours and I'm not understanding it. Giants should be favored because they beat the Pats earlier this year? Based on that logic you should have felt the Bills should have been favored to beat the Patriots in December, and I doubt you felt that way.

Aside from the oddsmakers attempting to get people to bet and to have an approximately equal amount of money bet on both sides, there are valid reasons why the Pats should be favored.

• Patriots: 13-3 (15-3); Giants: 9-7 (12-7)
• Pats defense: 21.4 points per game (15th); Giants D: 25.0 ppg (25th)
• Pats offense: 32.1 points per game (3rd); Giants O: 24.6 ppg (9th)
• Turnovers: Pats +17; Giants +7
• Patriots have won ten games in a row; Giants have won five straight but are 6-5 in last 11 games

Although there are plenty of reasons why the Giants could win this game, I don't see a valid reason why they should be favored to win.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Although there are plenty of reasons why the Giants could win this game, I don't see a valid reason why they should be favored to win.

Throw out regular season stats, they don't mean anything now. This is a focused and healthy Giants team, we've seen what they can do.

Anyways, a valid reason? I'll give 5:
1. Dismantled the Falcons on the road.
2. Manhandled Greebay on the road.
3. Beat the NFC's 2 seed and a very tough defense on the road.
4. Manning is playing lights-out and his receivers are making almost Tyree like catches.
5. Like the Pats, in big games, they make the plays they need to.

It's going to be a very, very tough game.

 

[grux]

I don't gamble anymore but I think the bookmakers got this one wrong. In the regular season the giants lost to the 49ers, Saints, Seahawks, Greenbay, Eagles and redskins twice. They should have split with the Skins and won the Seahawks game. Their other losses were against playoff teams and an ok Eagles team. Their road to the superbowl was also more difficult (road wins against greenbay and the 49ers.). I would have opened this line at Giants -2 and watched which way the sharps moved the line. Either way I just want Robert Kraft hoisting up the Lombardi trophy to his wife in the sky.

 

[Double TE]

Throw out regular season stats, they don't mean anything now. This is a focused and healthy Giants team, we've seen what they can do.

Anyways, a valid reason? I'll give 5:
1. Dismantled the Falcons on the road.
2. Manhandled Greebay on the road.
3. Beat the NFC's 2 seed and a very tough defense on the road.
4. Manning is playing lights-out and his receivers are making almost Tyree like catches.
5. Like the Pats, in big games, they make the plays they need to.

It's going to be a very, very tough game.

Agreed, great D Line and great Offense

Not sure, how is their O LINE and Secondary?

 

[Ron Sellers]

Throw out regular season stats, they don't mean anything now. This is a focused and healthy Giants team, we've seen what they can do.

Anyways, a valid reason? I'll give 5:
1. Dismantled the Falcons on the road.
2. Manhandled Greebay on the road.
3. Beat the NFC's 2 seed and a very tough defense on the road.
4. Manning is playing lights-out and his receivers are making almost Tyree like catches.
5. Like the Pats, in big games, they make the plays they need to.

It's going to be a very, very tough game.

Double check my last sentence.

I agree that there are plenty of reasons why the Giants could win this game; I didn't say that there are not (reasons why the Giants could win), and I don't think anyone is debating that.

I was responding to those that believe that the Giants should be favored.

There is a major difference between 'can win this game' and 'should be favored to win this game'; those are two entirely different things.