Midweek thoughts...I feel like I'm taking crazy pills

[jays52]

I just had a brilliant insight into a very difficult formation for the Ravens to cover in 3rd and 5 or so situations.

You line up as follows

.....................Gronk - Light - Mankins - Connolly - Waters- Volmer - Solder

Welker...................................................................................................................Branch

.......................................Hernandez
........................................................Brady

This is a very strong run formation, and as we found out last week Hernandez is a very strong runner

Its also a very strong protection formation. So if you wanted to release Gronk deep in the middle or Branch down the sideline, then Brady will likely have the time to get it to them.

Motioning Welker or Hernandez, get the Ravens to declare their coverage and keeps the motion man from getting hit off the LOS

Lots of stuff you can do from this formation and personnel package.

You can motion Solder around in that too be it for wham blocking, chipping, or dependent upon where the mike is.

 

[randomk1]

I don't think we should be all that afraid of Reed...first of all i think his play has declined...he's still a very dangerous player because of his intelligence but the guy had to be helped off the field last week because he couldn't put any weight on his leg. I seriously doubt that he will be 100%.

 

[jimmyjames]

Don't think that thought hadn't occurred to me, CT. But I was hoping to keep it mum. You never know who might be watching.

I'd hate to be the LB or DB who had to try and bring down THAT load. After 2 completions, they'd be BEGGING for Tom to throw it to Gronk

Brady only has to throw it to him once and from then on, who ever is lined up across from him is going to have to take an extra beat to react at the snap. Could give them another advantage lined up across from T Suggs

As far as Reed goes, Brady doesn't throw deep enough that often to let Reed play centerfield and cover the field with the ball in the air. Like we saw in the NFLN special with BB and TFB it's more about recognizing where he is and throwing away from him.

 

[upstater1]

Twice that poor S Carter from the Broncos tried to tackle Gronk with his shoulder to the thighs, and twice he came away hurt.

After that, he tried to play another snap or two, but instead he just came off the field. Looked like he had crunched his neck.

 

[VJCPatriot]

The more I think about this game the more I think it's key to target and exploit both Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. Welcome to bizarro world. I can't believe I'm thinking this but I see major vulnerabilities in the two best players at their respective position of their generation.

It's pretty clear to me that Ray Lewis, one of my favorite players ever (hence the 52), has not lost a step. He has lost two steps. He can't sidestep blocks like he used to, and this has greatly hurt his shed game. His anticipation is still there, his tenacity is still there, but he physically has dropped off dramatically. I see him as being easily exploited in the wham game because if Gronk can earhole Ngata I think the back can beat Lewis. I think Connoly and the guards can reach and seal him easily. I'm focusing a lot on his run fits because I think at this stage he is exclusively a run defender. I also think that the Ravens will try to force the Pats to run with lighter sets and six man boxes. I anticipate a gameplan with a lot of check with me calls. If the Pats can find a way to isolate him on a back (or, more specifically Hernandez by aligning him in the backfield) they can also exploit him readily in the passing game.

While I still think Ed Reed makes tremendous reads and baits better than anyone, it's clear to me that he can't tackle anymore. His will is there, but his body isn't capable of doing it anymore. What's the key? Get Gronk on him, and establish it early. It will be a challenge because I think Baltimore will high-low Gronk and press him with a dlineman, but with motion and spacing I think the offense will find a way to force Reed to matchup physically with Gronkowski. Not only am I certain Gronk will run him over, but Reed's ball skills will be negated by Gronk's catch radius and overall body positioning. How crazy is it so say a major focus on the gameplan should be to throw directly at Reed? It's true, though, and an advantageous matchup.

So there's my wednesday thoughts. What are yours?

I disagree slightly for the following reasons.

1. Lewis has lost a couple of steps but anything he gets his mitts on is going to be tackled to the ground. I think Ridley will be benched in favor of BJGE because of fumbling issues. Ravens WILL be clawing hard at that ball for sure and looking to take possesions away from Brady. Therefore running the ball with BJGE negates any speed factor our backs would have had.

2. Ed Reed still has the best pure ball skills of any safety in the NFL. Any pass that goes in Reed's direction better be on the money or it will end up intercepted. Now if Gronk catches the ball and runs over Reed, yes I can see that scenario happening, but the ball has to GET THERE SAFELY first. We already saw Brady throw one interception when he tried to go high to Gronk, the ball sailed a little and whamo interception. You do that repeatedly in Ed Reed's direction = turnovers.

Sometimes we 'outthink' ourselves. Don't throw the ball at Reed unless he's clearly beat or blown the coverage. Don't run the ball at Lewis unless you have a scheme to neutralize him at the POA. I believe that the key is really to run no huddle effectively, keep the Raven's defense off balance, and spread the ball to the open guy. With weapons like Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, etc. One of them is bound to get open.

 

[everlong]

In addition to getting the guards on top of Lewis in the run game I think they can use both Gronk and Solder off the line to get on top of him to vary wham blocking on Ngata. The other part about this if they can establish the run is you can have Gronk run patterns at Lewis like he's blocking and then peel off giving him an even bigger advantage couple with his speed.

The one thing they have to avoid with Lewis is slow developing plays. As stated his instincts are still impeccable. I think back to Junior vs SD in the 2007 AFCCG sniffing out several plays and shooting the gap and causing havoc. This is how Lewis can still be a game changer just like Junior was.

In regards to Waters pulling I believe Ngata spends most of his time on the defensive left side which means Mankins would be pulling. Regardless I speculated on this in another thread and agree no matter who's pulling.

 

[patfanken]

In addition to getting the guards on top of Lewis in the run game I think they can use both Gronk and Solder off the line to get on top of him to vary wham blocking on Ngata. The other part about this if they can establish the run is you can have Gronk run patterns at Lewis like he's blocking and then peel off giving him an even bigger advantage couple with his speed.

The one thing they have to avoid with Lewis is slow developing plays. As stated his instincts are still impeccable. I think back to Junior vs SD in the 2007 AFCCG sniffing out several plays and shooting the gap and causing havoc. This is how Lewis can still be a game changer just like Junior was.

In regards to Waters pulling I believe Ngata spends most of his time on the defensive left side which means Mankins would be pulling. Regardless I speculated on this in another thread and agree no matter who's pulling.

That is a GREAT point EL. I have been a proponent of quick hitting running plays to counter attacking aggressive defenses for a long time. These are plays designed to hit SPECIFIC holes before the defense reacts. No waiting and reading blocks. Just a double team to create either width and/or depth on one side of the hole, and a pulling G or wham block to seal the other side. At worst you wind up with no gain. you don't risk any negative yardage. At best you break into the 2nd level and force the DL to slow down and read more in the future

 

[Patspsycho]

I disagree slightly for the following reasons.

1. Lewis has lost a couple of steps but anything he gets his mitts on is going to be tackled to the ground. I think Ridley will be benched in favor of BJGE because of fumbling issues. Ravens WILL be clawing hard at that ball for sure and looking to take possesions away from Brady. Therefore running the ball with BJGE negates any speed factor our backs would have had.

2. Ed Reed still has the best pure ball skills of any safety in the NFL. Any pass that goes in Reed's direction better be on the money or it will end up intercepted. Now if Gronk catches the ball and runs over Reed, yes I can see that scenario happening, but the ball has to GET THERE SAFELY first. We already saw Brady throw one interception when he tried to go high to Gronk, the ball sailed a little and whamo interception. You do that repeatedly in Ed Reed's direction = turnovers.

Sometimes we 'outthink' ourselves. Don't throw the ball at Reed unless he's clearly beat or blown the coverage. Don't run the ball at Lewis unless you have a scheme to neutralize him at the POA. I believe that the key is really to run no huddle effectively, keep the Raven's defense off balance, and spread the ball to the open guy. With weapons like Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, etc. One of them is bound to get open.

I don't think we will see much of BJGE. I don't think we'll do much IZ runs (which is what you usually see with BJGE) which would put the RB right in the path of Lewis. Woodhead did great on OZ runs and I think that's what we'll be seeing more of. Hopefully the Ravens haven't adjusted to Woodhead yet.

I actually do think we have to go right at Reed, right off the bat. We have to test him to see where he is, physically, because with that high ankle sprain, if Reed loses half a step, the Ravens D plan goes out the window because the field gets stretched and whatever they do underneath is pointless- exactly what they don't want.

 

[Dragda]

Have Gronk double/chip on Suggs, have Waters pull to help clear Ngata, have Solder/Vollmer block down on Redding and have Connolly just hold even with Cody, and that should open up some running lanes on that side, especially if you have Johnson in on that play to block as the WR.

Double and fold blocks on Ngata and Suggs alternating between the two to keep them in read and react mode. Defensive players play a double differently than a fold (which is like a chip or temporary double then releasing to block on the second level). Keep them guessing. If you run a double every time the player will smply drop and be content to occupy two blockers. If you release on occassion, it will keep them off balance so you can clear them out of the hole if you are running.

One of the Patriots favorite passes has been Gronk going middle/deep down the middle, working the seam. I'd avoid that one with Reed in play, and Tell Brady only go to it if he's 100% certain that Reed can't get near the play.

I agree. I think the premise to go right at Reed with Gronkowski as the OP suggested is not a great strategy.

 

[mgcolby]

Exactly. Everyone in the media is concerned with drawing up a coverage that will stop the tight ends. The problem is that they are coverage breakers. The *only* way to stop this offense is to get pressure, and Suggs is a unique blend of outside speed and burst complimented by interior strength and leverage. It wouldn't surprise me to see him aligned as an inside linebacker in some of their passing looks, or at the very least heavily utilized rushing off of Ngata.

This may lend some credence to the Ravens fans and what they have been saying about not trying to pressure Yates: But I saw Suggs lined up in coverage on slot receivers multiple times against the Texans on Saturday and one time on Johnson. Johnson ran a quick out route, caught the ball and was immediately brought down by Suggs.

They appeared to stay in their base more than usual in obvious passing situations, keeping Suggs standing up in the traditional 34 OLB role, instead of bringing him up to the LOS with his hand down playing DE in a sub package.

 

[mgcolby]

I'd avoid playing games with Reed, and focus on two other areas: Lateral movement with the LBs (especially Lewis) and pull/trap blocking against Ngata on the line in the running game.

Have Gronk double/chip on Suggs, have Waters pull to help clear Ngata, have Solder/Vollmer block down on Redding and have Connolly just hold even with Cody, and that should open up some running lanes on that side, especially if you have Johnson in on that play to block as the WR.

In the Passing game, I'd keep Welker clean on the line by moving him a lot, put Hernandez in the backfield on occasion to allow him a more free release, and I'd have Gronk/Hernandez going hi/low with crossing patterns in front of and behind the LBs. If Reed and the corners start to really sag into the middle, put Johnson or Underwood in to run some go routes or out and ups.

One of the Patriots favorite passes has been Gronk going middle/deep down the middle, working the seam. I'd avoid that one with Reed in play, and Tell Brady only go to it if he's 100% certain that Reed can't get near the play.

No reason not to do this. Employ the KISS concept and make it easy for Chad/Underwood and challenge them outside the numbers. All it will take is one or two legitimate shots to them on the outside, even better if you hit one, to really loosen the intermediate middle of the field.

Also keeping them in their Base with the hurry up and force Suggs out in coverage would be very advantageous, to both our passing game and TFB health.

 

[ALP]

at this point i am much more concerned about gameplanning against Suggs and Haloti rather than these two all pros

 

[jsull87]

My Wednesday thoughts Jay, stray toward the OL.

10. Did anyone else notice that Sean Ellis seemed to have a burst or little more jump to his first step last week? Jet fans always complained that Ellis, in his later years, only showed up for a few games. Well this would be a great time for this year's great game.

It has been a theory of mine all year that Ellis was brought in to this team for the playoffs and not entirely for the season. His snaps were reduced by the end of the season giving him a rest and time to rejuvenate for the playoffs. He and Gerrard Warren really stepped up last week.

I think both will play key rolls next week Especially against the run.

 

[Lurks_All_Day]

When you talk about pressing Gronk with a DL, wouldn't a solution to that be putting him out wide? Can't do it on every down, but on 3rd and long it makes a lot of sense.

Right in the middle of a 3-reciever bunch. Good luck w/ that, Balt!

 

[goheels22002]

10. Did anyone else notice that Sean Ellis seemed to have a burst or little more jump to his first step last week? Jet fans always complained that Ellis, in his later years, only showed up for a few games. Well this would be a great time for this year's great game.

When the quarterback runs around in circles like a dork, it's easy for Sean Ellis to look like he has a little more jump. Tim Tebow should have had a sign on his butt saying, "Jump On Me."

 

[Matt Hooper]

Last week TJ Yates was very effective throwing to intermediate routes inside the numbers. When he pushed the ball downfield he got in trouble. Brady can do the same with welker and gronkowski and move the ball without challenging Reed.

As a Ravens fan, I am afraid of gronkowski. Without him I say Ravens win. With him in, the Ravens have to play perfect defensive football and pretty good offensive football (like week 1 against Pittsburg) to pull out the win. A tall order on the road.

 

[Matt Hooper]

at this point i am much more concerned about gameplanning against Suggs and Haloti rather than these two all pros

Bingo. Suggs can wreck an entire offensive game plan. You have to double him AND chip him with a RB. You have to double Ngata. Just dont throw deep at Webb or Reed. Throw to gronkowski and welker in the middle of the field and let them get their YAC.

Technically Suggs and Ngata are the all pros. Reed and Lewis aren't this year.

 

[The-Hooded-One]

When the quarterback runs around in circles like a dork, it's easy for Sean Ellis to look like he has a little more jump. Tim Tebow should have had a sign on his butt saying, "Jump On Me."

Ellis was the one that got initial pressure and made him run around like a dork.

 

[Stilla]

I expect Nate to catch his 1st pass in this game.

I think the 3TE set will be NE's clutch for this game. ITs the best protection formation NE can use and it has proven to be effective when NE needs to build its game plan.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

First off, what a great football thread....... thanks to all involved.

Also, I agree that we should test Reed early, but preferably in a way the doesn't expose the ball to him to much (if that's possible). Not sure how to do this, but I think that we need to establish how "limited" he is gonna be based on that ankle.

A high pressure route or two at him should expose that quick enough. High ankles can be a b!tch so I'm not sure anyone will know how he is until we can see him at game speed. If he's limited at all....... It's a beachhead that can be exploited all day long.

Also, I can totally see the middle and intermediate routes being open all day long. Just need to give Brady a wee bit of time for them to develop.