Ravens @ Patriots AFCCG

[everlong]

On a general football forum a Ravens fan said well look what the Steelers did to the Patriots and they are similar defenses.

Patriots crush Chargers, Chargers kill Ravens, Ravens destroy Steelers, Steelers beat up the Patriots. Completely irrelevant. It all comes down to the match-ups.

For the Ravens defense the match up is their LBs and safeties against Hernandez and Gronkowski while still covering Welker and getting a pass rush. Baltimore will try to confuse Brady by mixing up coverages and pressure. I don't see anybody on their defense who can match-up with either of the TEs one on one so the match-up that is most important to the Pats is the O-line containing Baltimore's line and Suggs. As much as we might hate him Suggs is a beast. I think it would be wise to chip Suggs as much as possible to give Light help.

For the Patriots defense the match-up is containing the run while not allowing Baltimore to hit the deep ball. While most would consider Flacco a better QB than Tebow he's not that far ahead of Tebow in terms of being able to read coverage and hit the intermediate routes. He pretty much either goes deep or dumps it off to the backs. Chung and Spikes being healthy is key. Torey Smith is somebody they cannot give a free release to. Joseph did an awesome job vs him in the divisional round. Be it Moore or McCorty they're going to need the same effort. Given the need to stop the run the Pats are probably looking at playing some cover one so the deep safety will be very important.

I think the game comes down to this for the Pats. Stop the run and don't turn the ball over and you win. You can say that most weeks but essentially that makes the game Brady vs Flacco and that's a no brainer. To do that pass protection is essential. I think Solder will see a lot of 3rd TE duty.

Five players who were not there in 09 who cause match up nightmares of fill in matchup nightmares are Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, Chung and Spikes. I think they'll win because of those 5 additions. 4 of them from a team that can't draft.

 

[PatriotFan77]

I think the game comes down to this for the Pats. Stop the run and don't turn the ball over and you win. You can say that most weeks but essentially that makes the game Brady vs Flacco and that's a no brainer

That's basically today's NFL. Best QB wins. That's why, based on who is left, I think the Pats have a great shot at winning it all this year.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

Solid analysis...... I haven't watched the Ravens much this year, but when I watched the game yesturday, I was struck by two VERY important things.

1) Flacco is not very good at all. I've heard that that's been the knock on him this year. I wouldn't call him Tebow exactly, but I certainly would put him in the Sanchez category. We all know that you can get very far with a great defense and a mediocre QB....... but you probably can't get to the big show. (i.e. Jets the last 2 years).

I think that that is a fundamental flaw with the Ravens this year. They have a defense that is probably good enough to min MOST games, but they don't have one that can win the BIGGEST game when it has to. You almost ALWAYS need that to make it to, and to win the Super Bowl (just look at the recent winners).

2) Baltimore's defense........... reminds me of our defense in 2006-2007.... Very good and made up of smart, crafty and experienced players. But with that comes AGE..... They look old and slow. Not sure that they can hang physically if we go hurry-up on them for sustained periods. They are good, but they are old. If the game is close in the 4th period...... look for a reverse 2006 AFCCG game. Brady will do to them, what Manning did to our old, tired defense.

 

[Deus Irae]

One thing I noticed is that Lewis seems slower side to side, and it seems to be more of an effort for him to move laterally.

 

[PatriotFan77]

One thing I noticed is that Lewis seems slower side to side, and it seems to be more of an effort for him to move laterally.

Absolutely. He looks like a shell of his former self.

 

[RobertWeathers]

One thing I noticed is that Lewis seems slower side to side, and it seems to be more of an effort for him to move laterally.

I wonder if his turf-toe injury is still impeding his ability to move around?

 

[player52]

One thing I noticed is that Lewis seems slower side to side, and it seems to be more of an effort for him to move laterally.

could it be lingering injuries or just age?

im gonna re watch a few games tonight and il look to see if i notice it

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

Keys to this game IMHO:

Will repeat what I said before the last game against Denver.

1) Playmakers, when you have the opportunity, make the play

2) Tackling...make the tackle...make the tackle.

3) Short passes to get us into a flow. Very important. Short open passes, get some 'easier' throws and catches.

4) PROTECT UP THE MIDDLE, keep the middle sealed off. Suggs will also be coming on Bradys blind side. 72 may need a bit of help over there

5) Good offensive line play like we all have been saying for a while. Protect your meal ticket.

6) Bring your intensity...the ravens will be bringing theirs.

 

[Deus Irae]

I wonder if his turf-toe injury is still impeding his ability to move around?

Could be, I guess. I didn't look at his backpedaling for comparison. No matter what, I won't be surprised to see the Patriots attack him with double crossing routes involving Gronk and Welker, and we'll probably see more wide runs than I'd previously expected.

 

[brdmaverick]

All of their losses came on the road, and I believe they all came after slow starts. The Ravens team (and ESPECIALLY the defense) are absolutely deadly as front runners, but get the behind, and their WILL can be absolutely destroyed.

Even more so than the Broncos game, I think the first quarter will be key.

 

[Patspsycho]

Ray Rice is Baltimore's leading rusher AND receiver, so we'll be sure that BB will scheme to shut him down and put the pressure on Flacco to move the chains. Rice is small, fast, and shifty so I wouldn't be surprised to see Chung involved in the box more often than not.

On offense, I expect to see a lot of wide formations and split-outs (don't be surprised to see Gronk and Hernandez split out wide) that end in horizontal stretch plays to outrun the ancient backers that Baltimore has (not just Ray Lewis). This will spread the defense and force them to declare early and often, as well as forcing them to play in the open, something they're not fond of doing.

 

[Deus Irae]

Troy Brown is on WEEI this morning. He sees a slower Ravens defense, too.

 

[JackBauer]

The one aspect of this matchup that has me most optimistic is that this Ravens team doesn't seem like one that will give Brady fits with their pass rush. And if they can't do that, I don't see them beating us.

 

[KevinFaulk-33]

Ray Rice is Baltimore's leading rusher AND receiver, so we'll be sure that BB will scheme to shut him down and put the pressure on Flacco to move the chains. Rice is small, fast, and shifty so I wouldn't be surprised to see Chung involved in the box more often than not.

On offense, I expect to see a lot of wide formations and split-outs (don't be surprised to see Gronk and Hernandez split out wide) that end in horizontal stretch plays to outrun the ancient backers that Baltimore has (not just Ray Lewis). This will spread the defense and force them to declare early and often, as well as forcing them to play in the open, something they're not fond of doing.

like the second half against the dolphins? I'm talking about the second game. we played with the empty formation a lot!

 

[Metaphors]

Ray Rice is Baltimore's leading rusher AND receiver, so we'll be sure that BB will scheme to shut him down and put the pressure on Flacco to move the chains. Rice is small, fast, and shifty so I wouldn't be surprised to see Chung involved in the box more often than not.

Dust off the Marshall Faulk gameplan. Hit him every time he is on the field. Dedicate a player to Rice and make the game 10-on-10. Keep a deep safety to prevent the TSmith homerun.

In the 8 road games for the Ravens, they are 4-0 when Flacco doesn't throw a pick...0-4 when he does. Doesn't get any clearer than that.

On offense, I expect to see a lot of wide formations and split-outs (don't be surprised to see Gronk and Hernandez split out wide) that end in horizontal stretch plays to outrun the ancient backers that Baltimore has (not just Ray Lewis). This will spread the defense and force them to declare early and often, as well as forcing them to play in the open, something they're not fond of doing.

If Brady has time, the Ravens will have trouble covering everyone. They need Reed deep to prevent any post routes. They need a CB to cover Branch/Ocho. CB/LB bracket on Welker. That leaves guys like Ray-Ray, McClain, Johnson and Pollard to account for Gronk, Hernandez and Woody (who had a big game in 2010). They absolutely must get pressure in the backfield to make Brady throw early and force OL penalties. If the Pats stay on schedule, the situation will start to snowball and won't get better as the Ravens defense starts to wear down.

If the Pats offense is even moderately efficient for them and the game falls on Flacco (with at least 1 pick), the Pats almost certainly win. If the Pats are constantly off schedule and Flacco is able to use Rice as a safety blanket, it will almost certainly be a long day for the Pats. This game is actually one of the easiest of the year to analyze.

 

[fnordcircle]

We physical
They finesse

 

[Keyser Söze]

I'm going to have more anxiety over this game then I would facing the 49ers in the SB.

 

[MSU]

Why does everyone think the Steelers defense shut down the Patriots? They didn't shut down the Patriots. The whole story of that game was Big Ben and his WRs tore our defense to shreds.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm going to have more anxiety over this game then I would facing the 49ers in the SB.

Why? San Francisco is a much better team.

 

[Patspsycho]

like the second half against the dolphins? I'm talking about the second game. we played with the empty formation a lot!

Most likely- I think this is the one time we go away from the run game, because that's what the Ravens want, they want a lot of interior action where there's not much running involved.

I think that whatever we offer in the way of run game will be token, just to mix things up.