I'm just going to post some stuff I've seen with SD since some of the stuff I've read so far seems very vanilla
Sand Diego on Offense:
1. San Diego tends to stretch out the run in both directions (left or right) and is the top in the league at wide runs to both sides. They actually run the ball better the more the play is stretched. Which partly attests to LT's ability/vision to cut up whenever there's a hole and partly because of his and his O-line's speed.
This may appear to be true but in reality a lot of plays designed to go off-tackle end up being taken outside by LT. Not every run we do outside is designed to go outside. LT is as good as there is at improvising.
To beat SD's strength (running the ball) we will have to hold the corner with TBC and Rosie (and possibly Vrabes at times) and force the run up inside. In fact SD is mediocre at best in running the ball inside. Not sure if its because their O-line isn't strong enough or whether they are not technially sound at "fighting in a closet" as is often the description of that kind of work). In terms of personel and stats they will not be able to run up inside on us Our D-line will prevent them. We've already faced the best in the league at the up the gut running and held our own (Jax, Buffalo, Chicago). But can we set the edge or will LT get outside???
Not sure where you got this. LT, like any RB, will struggle when teams are stacking the box to stop him. But LT does very well at getting 2-5 yards on runs where you think he's stacked. And you obviously haven't seen much of Michael Turner. He's a power-runner and he CAN run between the tackles. He averaged over 6 yards per carry and almost all of them were right up the gut. LT is the lightning and Turner's the thunder.
2. In terms of passing the ball Rivers is only good because of play action. If they can't run, Rivers will not pass. Its kinda like Indy's running offense in reverse. When LT's numbers go down, up come River's Int's.
Yeah. Worked really well when we killed Pittsburgh in the second half after they shut down LT. It worked for KC in our first game against them for a half...and then we game out and scored 21 in the second half. Then LT went on a run of 10 games where pretty much no one stopped him.
When we were down 28-7 on the road in Cincy it was PR who led the comeback with his arm. When we were down 24-7 on the road in Denver, it was PR who led the comeback with his arm. And of course LT was involved in that, but it wasn't "hand off LT, hand off LT, Rivers makes 3-yard pass."
3. The third thing that stands out to me is when SD is on offense is that they are very poor at third down efficiency. Is it because they become predictable??? If so This could be a long day for SD.
This is just plain bad research. The Chargers were 5th best in the NFL on third-down percentage...two spots better than the Pats. What are you looking at? Under NO system can you call our 3rd down conversion rate poor.
With the Pat's on Offense:
1. We have a decent Running game.. which means it comes down to matchups. Lucky for us, SD has problems with a power running O-line (our hallmark this year, we actually run better against strong teams rather than finesse teams). Meaning we line up and try to knock the snot out of you... no silly blocking.
You need to account for the fact we're healthy again in the front-seven for the first time all year. Getting Luis Castillo back is huge. He's our Seymour.
Case in point SD has given up big yards to the top Power run teams (KC, Buffalo, and Cleveland - yes Cleveland is the #3 power running team) and in each case had a hard time winning, or have los tthe game.
We gave up big yards to KC? In the first game yes. In the second game? Not so much. Against Cleveland? Gimme a break. Against Buffalo? Come on! What are you looking at? Cleveland had 90 yards rushing on us and 27 of that was Frye. Buffalo had 63 yards rushing and 26 of that was Losman. You really couldn't do better than that?
On the flip side, scheme running teams like Denver get mauled by SD... can't say exactly why, but I imagine that if SD gets outmuscled, their defense loses most of its advantage. I would have liked to see Jax or Carolina go against SD to test this theory.
We maul Denver because we see them twice a year. The teams that give us the most trouble are the teams that can do two things: Pass protect at an elite level and who have elite receivers. See: Cincinnati (who we still beat, btw.) Our defense is also somewhat vulnerable to screens and misdirection, but only in stretches. They tend to get exploited on those kinds of plays for maybe a series and then they close it down.
2. With Brady clicking.. we should be able to move the ball well against them without resorting to the run. SD isn't very good at stopping the pass.
With Brady clicking? That's kind of a self-fulfilling statement, isn't it? That's like saying "if we move the ball well against them we'll move the ball well against them." And as to SD not being good at stopping the pass, we're better than average. We've had some trouble against teams that have multiple elite receivers...Chad Johnson/Houshmanzadah, Anquan Boldin/Fitzgerald, Torry Holt/Bruce...but you guys don't even have one elite receiver, do you.
3. I wonder how the screen will work against Merriman. I haven't seen much of this strategy used against him and given our recent success as the screen it will be interesting to see how this matches up.
We are sometimes vulnerable to the screen, but Merriman also bats a lot of those kinds of passes down at the LoS.
I could see this as the typical setting up the run with the pass and when we get within 15 yards... just going back to the power run.
Good luck with that. If you can avoid negative plays you will probably have success. But the thing is that Brady can't complete passes from his back.
