I keep hearing Luck is unlike Leaf, Mirer, Russel, Smith et al.

[VrabelJr]

It's a business. The Colts, if they're smart, will trade Manning so that they can get good draft picks to build a team around Luck, and start a new decade-long run of winning seasons, division titles & SB contention.

They won't draft Luck and have him sit behind Manning until he retires.

The Colts can't trade Manning. The other 31 teams in the league know the predicament that the Colts have. All the other teams have to do is play a game of chicken with the Colts and it will force the Colts to draft Luck and cut Manning, or pass on Luck and keep Manning.

 

[ay-yo]

I think the Colts will ultimately trade down and the reason is money. If you take Luck and Manning leaves you are taking a GIANT risk. If Luck is anything less than spectacular fans will be pissed about how the Manning era ended and fan support won't be the same for some time (barring the Colts putting a legit team together and winning with a stud D etc.). They ain't in Boston and profit is not a guarantee. Given the many wholes they have I don't see Luck leading them to a good record next season. If I were them I'd try for something like this:

#1 - trade to #6 with Skins:
Snyder will overpay to get the hot shot, media golden boy. Colts get the Skins 2 / 3 / 4 this year plus future picks. Colts select Trent Richardson. Ugh. I love this guy, think he will be a stud anywhere and hope this doesn't happen.

I'd then load up on offensive line. Keep the points going up on the board and fans will keep coming. Richardson / Garcon / Clark is a great offensive core moving forward and in the short term with Wayne and Collie is even better. With Peyton back they'll return to a 9-11 win team (HOU may still take the division) and can start building the D with next years draft.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

For those of us old enough to remember the great debates, I don't think anyone thought that Leaf was better than Peyton. The big knock on Peyton coming out was that he couldn't win the "Big Game" and that held true for a while....But nobody thought that Leaf was better. Of course nobody thought that Leaf was gong to be the giant bust that he was..

Same thing for the Bledsoe vs. Rick Meier, some said Meier, but I really don't think it was that many.

Luck is pretty much a Peyton clone, son of a quaterback, stayed an extra year in college when he would heva been most likely the #1 pick if he came out as a Jr. The kid went to Stanford, so obviously he is no Jamarcus Russel*. People will try and push RG3, but if you need a QB, you should go after Luck with gusto. he is the real deal.

*predicted he would be a bust

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It seems obvious to me. Draft Luck. If Manning comes back healthy and looks like he's got another few years in him, hold a Luck Auction for quarterback-needy teams before next year's draft. If not, you have your (probable) future franchise quarterback. Paying a number 1 draft pick's salary for a season is a pretty good value insurance policy, given where the Colts find themselves.

Here's the thing that people are missing about this:

The Colts have to make this decision in at least a partial vacuum of information.

In particular, while the Colts may know that Peyton's ball is 100% back to normal, they will have no idea if they have to be concerned that a single hard hit will ruin him completely. Similarly, any team that might be willing to trade for Manning would have the same risk.

On that count, I have no envy at all for Polian's successor.

 

[cstjohn17]

They either draft him or trade him for a King's ransom.

If they think Manning will be healthy then they could trade the #1 for multiple 1st round picks. Alternatively they take luck and trade Manning for 50 cents on the dollar.

Luck looks to be a very good quarterback with an upside that is not as high as Manning but at worst would be a Carson Palmer type, serviceable pro, top 1/3 of league QBs.

 

[fester]

The Colts can't trade Manning. The other 31 teams in the league know the predicament that the Colts have. All the other teams have to do is play a game of chicken with the Colts and it will force the Colts to draft Luck and cut Manning, or pass on Luck and keep Manning.

That logic only works if there is one team interested in Manning. I do not think that is the case. For instance if there are 5 teams that are very interested in Manning, then several of them should be very willing to pay a fairly high price in draft picks to get him from the Colts because the differential between a reasonably healthy Manning and the next best option (Flynn, Griffin etc) is very steep.

If there are multiple interested teams, they will bid against each other in order to preclude another team from getting him, and that is true even if the Colts announce tomorrow that they are drafting Luck no matter what.

 

[mb6592]

Luck is pretty much a Peyton clone

Luck looks to be a very good quarterback with an upside that is not as high as Manning but at worst would be a Carson Palmer type, serviceable pro, top 1/3 of league QBs.

I'm trying to reconcile these two statements. I could live with a Carson Palmer going to the Colts with Peyton finishing his career in the NFC (and I don't see a team paying a king's ransom for a 36 year old QB coming off serious neck surgery).

I'd rather the Colts, especially in the disgusting manner in which they did it, not sign a Peyton clone for the next 15 years.

 

[MP-Logick]

That logic only works if there is one team interested in Manning. I do not think that is the case. For instance if there are 5 teams that are very interested in Manning, then several of them should be very willing to pay a fairly high price in draft picks to get him from the Colts because the differential between a reasonably healthy Manning and the next best option (Flynn, Griffin etc) is very steep.

If there are multiple interested teams, they will bid against each other in order to preclude another team from getting him, and that is true even if the Colts announce tomorrow that they are drafting Luck no matter what.

The Colts cannot trade Manning. Literally. Unless they want to pay him a $30 million bonus first.

 

[jcdavey]

in that he is a once in a generation talent. How do the Colts pass up on that? Is this assessment accurate? Is his talent level such that we can't reasonably expect him to fail?

when the colts interviewed peyton and leaf, one of the questions had something to do with their plans on what they would do once they signed. peyton gave the smart answer leaf gave the ******ed answer.

the story of how my chargers got the ****** leaf......

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The Colts cannot trade Manning. Literally. Unless they want to pay him a $30 million bonus first.

Moreover, anything they could get would have to be conditional, because there's no way of knowing how he'd hold up in an actual game situation [e.g., if they got a first in 2012, they'd have to give up a first in 2013 if Manning didn't stay on the field].

Imagine if the first sack he took caused him to relapse?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Moreover, anything they could get would have to be conditional, because there's no way of knowing how he'd hold up in an actual game situation [e.g., if they got a first in 2012, they'd have to give up a first in 2013 if Manning didn't stay on the field].

Imagine if the first sack he took caused him to relapse?

Exactly. Fused vertebrae and floating bone fragments are a scary thing. I know peyton is an ultra competitive guy, but football is a 10 to 15 year thing and then there is the rest of your life.

If I was Manning I would not risk it unles there was overwhelming evidence to that the chance of further injury is very minimal.

What good is the 28 million roster bonus if the qulaity of life you enjoy after football is seriously diminished due to a permenent neck injury?

 

[NinjaZX6R]

To me, Luck has the largest floor. I really don't see a high ceiling for him though.

 

[PatsFaninME]

Dungy said the other night that he didn't think it was a foregone conclusion by any means that the Colts would pick Luck over Griffin; that was, of course, before Polian got the boot.

That's because Dungy is a racist.

Colts proved that they are a horrible team with no depth and that is why they will finally realize that they need to hit the jackpot by trading this pick and loading up on many talented players. As a Pats fan I PRAY they take Luck and reach for some no-name OL on the #33 pick.