Bye-week daydreaming: 2012 cap space

[LloydBraun]

Yes, I am looking ahead & should not be. But, that is my curse. I enjoy the now, but I always look ahead. When the draft ends in April, I start looking at the next year.

That being said, from what I can find online and estimating n app. $125 mill cap next year, the Pats could be nearly $45 million under the cap.

Does this mean another 2007 like jump into trades & free agency? A Mario Williams? A Brandon Lloyd ( with a McDaniels return), a FA safety? A trade for some established players?

In "War Room", the strategy is mentioned that outside players are rated as to if/how much better they are than what we already have. Therefore, areas of upgrade should include DE, OLB, CB, WR & S. perhaps a 1st & 3rd traded for Williams & a Burfict type is targeted in round 1 as well. Burict is a throwback type beast of a LB, and versatile, all BB qualities. Imagine the D with those 2.

Brady has app. 5 years left & the team is in position to load up for those years.

 

[PatsFaninME]

Nah, I don't think Belichick "sells out" for one bang year of FA's and high picks. First of all, his current strategy is allowing team to win now and be strong for "tomorrow". Secondly, I think the "end" for Brady is further away that people think. Barring a major injury, I think he plays 6-8 more years.
Therefore, I think he continues his "value" theme.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Nah, I don't think Belichick "sells out" for one bang year of FA's and high picks. First of all, his current strategy is allowing team to win now and be strong for "tomorrow". Secondly, I think the "end" for Brady is further away that people think. Barring a major injury, I think he plays 6-8 more years.
Therefore, I think he continues his "value" theme.

Heck, even in 2007, he didn't go out and sign anyone other than Afailius Thomas to an oversized contract.

 

[IllegalContact]

don't spend a dime on defense. keep using the draf tuntil they can get it right...at a minimum, become more athletic

go sign vincent jackson, re-sign wes welker, bring koppen back for reasonably short $$ (he may not be all that as a starter, but there is a spot for him in the rotation)

I think the consistency between the pats, packers, and saints is that they have designed their defenses to dare other teams to try to beat them by throwing the ball and as long as the opponent is throwing the ball alot, that these 3 teams like their chances in a shootout

 

[resdubwhite]

Seriously..


45 Million?

Thats a lot of coin.
Maybe they can take Holmes from the Jets.


Or maybe not.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Yes, I am looking ahead & should not be. But, that is my curse. I enjoy the now, but I always look ahead. When the draft ends in April, I start looking at the next year.

That being said, from what I can find online and estimating n app. $125 mill cap next year, the Pats could be nearly $45 million under the cap.

Does this mean another 2007 like jump into trades & free agency? A Mario Williams? A Brandon Lloyd ( with a McDaniels return), a FA safety? A trade for some established players?

In "War Room", the strategy is mentioned that outside players are rated as to if/how much better they are than what we already have. Therefore, areas of upgrade should include DE, OLB, CB, WR & S. perhaps a 1st & 3rd traded for Williams & a Burfict type is targeted in round 1 as well. Burict is a throwback type beast of a LB, and versatile, all BB qualities. Imagine the D with those 2.

Brady has app. 5 years left & the team is in position to load up for those years.

Not sure what you're basing your guesstimate on given Miguel has been on sabatical since August and doesn't offer a future cap estimates page anymore. But looking at our list of RFA and UFA to re-sign the majority of those players or replace them would take up roughly $30M in cap space in and of itself. Somehow I just don't ever see Bill trading a 1st and 3rd (franchise tag level compensation which is why so few of them ever get tendered by another team) for anybody given the contract that would then also entail. And I bet when they rate the competition they also factor in things like a salary curve because of what they can do with the difference...

 

[cstjohn17]

don't spend a dime on defense. keep using the draf tuntil they can get it right...at a minimum, become more athletic

I like V JAX but it is this kind of crazy talk that has created the defensive mess.

Drafting is high risk, at best the player is 50/50 to make any impact. The team has an ok core on defense but no impact players or play makers. It could take 2-3 years to groom a draftee. I hope they do spend their money on the defensive side of the ball, they have thrown money at DE/OLB in the past (Colvin, Thomas).

 

[IllegalContact]

I like V JAX but it is this kind of crazy talk that has created the defensive mess.

Drafting is high risk, at best the player is 50/50 to make any impact. The team has an ok core on defense but no impact players or play makers. It could take 2-3 years to groom a draftee. I hope they do spend their money on the defensive side of the ball, they have thrown money at DE/OLB in the past (Colvin, Thomas).

colvin and thomas are not good examples of spending money.....add some value guys, sure, but I don't believe there will be much in terms of FA value available.

if you're going to spend money on a guy for the offense, which position would you try to address first? I say an outside WR.

On defense, use the top 4 picks and round up some athletic OLB types as well as a safety and maybe a CB

 

[Calciumee]

Heck, even in 2007, he didn't go out and sign anyone other than Afailius Thomas to an oversized contract.

And that worked out well...

 

[conway]

Does everyone think Mario Williams is out of the question? I'm guessing yes, but it's nice to dream.

Thoughts on a free agent positional priority list? Ignoring the draft for a moment, and treating our FAs as free agents and not assuming they are necessarily re-signed:

1. Center
2. Wide Receiver
3. Safety
4. Defensive End
5. Outside Linebacker

Re-signing Koppen, Welker, and Branch would obviously resolve #1 and maybe #2.

 

[Rob0729]

Approximately 25% of the league will be free agents this offseason due to many players taking short term contracts and franchise tags due to the uncapped year and then the lockout taking away a lot of the big deals. The Pats can be very active in free agency and address a lot of needs without breaking the bank.

I do think if the Pats are going to continue to try to change the philosophy of the defense to be more agressive, they could benefit from spending some money on an edge rusher. That said, two of the best free agent pick ups this season were two value guys in Andre Carter and Mark Anderson (they are the first two defenders to have double digit sack totals in the same season since 1985 when Andre Tippett and Garin Veris did it).

 

[borg]

I wonder how important balancing $$$$ on offense and defense is to BB. Brady, Mankins, Light, with Welker and eventually Gronk getting big pay boosts....the O $$$ is getting very top heavy compared to the D where Wilfork and Mayo are the only premium guys now or the foreseeable future.

If it is important to have balance, then BB has to spend it on FAs. And don't you think deep down inside, BB is downright embarrassed that his defense is so weak. I expect two Welker/Moss-like transactions that require draft choices for well paid, experienced defenders to tighten up that side of the ball. Add in a rookie DL and draft a secondary guy or two....but BB has to have players that impact the game now. He has the extra draft picks, the cash, and the need. It's go time

 

[Rob0729]

Does everyone think Mario Williams is out of the question? I'm guessing yes, but it's nice to dream.

Thoughts on a free agent positional priority list? Ignoring the draft for a moment, and treating our FAs as free agents and not assuming they are necessarily re-signed:

1. Center
2. Wide Receiver
3. Safety
4. Defensive End
5. Outside Linebacker

Re-signing Koppen, Welker, and Branch would obviously resolve #1 and maybe #2.

Williams will probably be franchised. Odds are the Pats will have no shot at him.

 

[WhiZa]

I like V JAX but it is this kind of crazy talk that has created the defensive mess.

Drafting is high risk, at best the player is 50/50 to make any impact. The team has an ok core on defense but no impact players or play makers. It could take 2-3 years to groom a draftee. I hope they do spend their money on the defensive side of the ball, they have thrown money at DE/OLB in the past (Colvin, Thomas).

I agree with you. I we should bring in vets on the defensive side of the ball at all positions. Think about how well we did bringing in Harrison, Vrabel, Washington, etc. I think we spent enough high draft picks on defense, it's now time to get someone that is proven who will make an impact immediately. It worked well with Anderson and Carter this year. How about some DBs next year?

 

[ivanvamp]

Does everyone think Mario Williams is out of the question? I'm guessing yes, but it's nice to dream.

Thoughts on a free agent positional priority list? Ignoring the draft for a moment, and treating our FAs as free agents and not assuming they are necessarily re-signed:

1. Center
2. Wide Receiver
3. Safety
4. Defensive End
5. Outside Linebacker

Re-signing Koppen, Welker, and Branch would obviously resolve #1 and maybe #2.

I wouldn't re-sign Koppen, not because he isn't good (he is), but because he'll likely command a lot of money, and the Pats have shown this year that, frankly, they don't need him. Spend the money elsewhere. Maybe draft a center in the middle rounds to groom, or pick up a cheap FA for that role, but right now they're fine there.

WR is always a position they could upgrade, though if Ocho simply became the normal Ocho, that itself would be a huge upgrade.

Really, though, this team is in great, great shape offensively:

QB - Brady, Hoyer, Mallet - incredible talent and depth
RB - Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead (Faulk/BJGE will be free agents) - could use another RB - either re-sign lawfirm relatively inexpensively or, if he commands big $$ elsewhere, you can replace him, especially if Vereen is ready to play next year
TE - Gronk, Hernandez - best TE tandem in the game, by a mile
OL - Light, Mankins, Waters, Vollmer, Solder, Cannon, Connolly, etc. - they're in very good shape on the line
WR - Ocho......um, ok, they definitely need to re-sign Welker and probably add someone else. But who? Not sure about Vincent Jackson (though I like him as a player).

It's on the defensive side of the ball that they could really use some help.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Williams will probably be franchised. Odds are the Pats will have no shot at him.

I think they may have a shot. Before training camp this year Houston was only 880,000 under the cap. He would have to sign a cap friendly deal to keep them under the cap. Also a lot of questions arise as far as Arian Foster being a restricted FA and if they are willing to move on without him and go with Ben Tate. Their QB's deal also expires in 2013 which could get interesting as well. Half their offensive line's deal expire over 2012 2013 as well. We'll see what happens.

 

[IllegalContact]

I agree with you. I we should bring in vets on the defensive side of the ball at all positions. Think about how well we did bringing in Harrison, Vrabel, Washington, etc. I think we spent enough high draft picks on defense, it's now time to get someone that is proven who will make an impact immediately. It worked well with Anderson and Carter this year. How about some DBs next year?

you're talking about guys from 10 years ago.......there is no vrabel, washington or harrison.....they were more recently replaced by acquisitions such as thomas, haynesworth and bodden. the ones that pose as any kind of upgrade (calais campbell) will require serious money. below that, I don't see any kind of improvement at DL. you know mario williams ain't happening....this team has never operated that way......maybe ahmad brooks.

the bottom line is that if there is any one position the pats need to fill, it's the #1 type of WR on the outside.

the secondary, you can solidify with a solid safety provided chung can stay healthy. solid safeties make the CB's much more comfortable on theoutside.

the only thing that has really hurt the pats defense the most is the lack of a pass rush from the outside, and poor OLB quality. but we have known this for awhile now and the team seems intent on not solving that.

 

[cstjohn17]

colvin and thomas are not good examples of spending money.....add some value guys, sure, but I don't believe there will be much in terms of FA value available.

if you're going to spend money on a guy for the offense, which position would you try to address first? I say an outside WR.

On defense, use the top 4 picks and round up some athletic OLB types as well as a safety and maybe a CB

They are good examples, the Patriots saw a need and spent money to bring in players they thought would work. The results weren't great (although they did win two Superbowls with Colvin).

I hate to add caveats to my posts but I will in this case. I love the draft, love everything about it but the history of the league indicates that draft picks are very high risk and don't pan out consistently. Even impact draft picks take several years to develop.

The defense is a mess, 3 or 4 rookies are not going to solve the issue. I would argue that a mid-high end vet would have more of an impact than any draft pick.

The offense is fine, draft a Center in the first few rounds and let Dante coach them up. WRs, my assumption is that Welker will be franchised, after that draft a WR in rounds 3 or 4 and bring in a few low end vets. I would love V Jax but would rather spend resources to address the defensive deficiencies.

 

[Rob0729]

I think they may have a shot. Before training camp this year Houston was only 880,000 under the cap. He would have to sign a cap friendly deal to keep them under the cap. Also a lot of questions arise as far as Arian Foster being a restricted FA and if they are willing to move on without him and go with Ben Tate. Their QB's deal also expires in 2013 which could get interesting as well. Half their offensive line's deal expire over 2012 2013 as well. We'll see what happens.

Even if they do not keep Williams long term, I would expect them to franchise and trade him. He is too valuable to let go for nothing other than a compensatory pick.

I don't know if they are in cap trouble this year though or even going forward.

 

[cstjohn17]

Williams will probably be franchised. Odds are the Pats will have no shot at him.

I don't know if he will be franchised, he would be my priority target. If Williams is signed and Carter comes back the front seven is in good shape and the defense can start to take shape.

The main reason I think he won't be franchised was described in this ESPN blog.

Mario Williams and the franchise tag - AFC South Blog - ESPN

"I now interrupt this post to correct myself and make the rest of it an example of what could happen in another situation like Williams' instead of his situation itself. As gbrussell points out below, a secondary provision of the franchise tag is that if it's not more than 120 percent of a player's previous salary, he gets that number instead. Williams has a $13.8 million salary in 2011. So his franchise 2012 tag number would be $16.56 million. That's prohibitive. A long-term deal would come with a much lower 2012 number. The Texans have to give him a deal or let him go. Back to a scenario that would play out if Williams had a reasonable number this season."