YAC and the MVP

[borg]

The MVP race has been muddied up and shoe-in Aaron Rodgers is hanging on for dear life despite Brees' record setting yards and Flynn's airshow in Rodgers' offense.
On another board, sentiments are leaning toward Brees because he threw 150 more passes than Rodgers and set records. I argued that Brees has the greatest arsenal of weapons in the NFL with 4 NFL caliber RBs, 1 All World TE, and 3 high grade WRs compared to Green Bay with a premium set of WRs, a quality TE, and JAG RBs.
A closer look at stats show that the Saints RBs account for 3300+ yds rushing/receiving vs 2400 for GB.
At TE, Graham gained about 600 yds more than Finley.
Saints RBs and TEs caught 90 more passes than GB's counterparts.
These stats alone show that Brees runs a very efficient low risk offense. Yards per attempt favored GB ....13 to 11.....and yards per catch favored GB by 1 yd.

But most interesting to me was YAC....Yards after catch. A top 40 list of NFL pass catchers has 3 Saints in the top 17....Sproles, Thomas, and Graham combining for over 1500 YAC....while GB has only Nelson cracking the top 40 with 380 YAC.

The disparity in stat makeup reminds me of the old arguement....Marino vs Montana/Young........down field vs west coast......pure passer vs systems QB.

Enter Brady into this conversation.....in particular....YAC

#1 YAC = Wes Welker.....707
#5 Gronk......632
#20 Hernandez.....417.......total= 1756 YAC

Amazing ....32 teams and the Pats have 3 players in the top 20.

So the Question for the board: Does high YAC team stats hurt Brees and Brady's MVP qualifications and does a low YAC/high YPA/YPC help Rodgers

YAC stats.... 2011 NFL Player Receiving Stats - National Football League - ESPN

Peter King does a nice job explaining why he believes Rodgers deserves the MVP over Brees
Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees make NFL MVP race interesting - Peter King - SI.com

 

[PatsGirl2011]

Rodgers is going to win end of discussion. Sorry, even Sean Peyton's attempt at stat padding isn't going to help Brees. Yes, the Saints and Packers throw the ball a lot. I swear it seems like Rodgers throw the ball every down, seriously. However, The media gave the MVP to Rodgers a long time ago. Not enough time to swing the vote. As for the YAC,teams play to the ability of their players. Case close! TB has succeeded with Randy Moss, Troy Brown, David Givens, Branch etc.

 

[Ring 6]

I do not think any adjustment should be made for YAC.
All yards count the same, and many are created by the way you defend a QB.
For example if you blitz a QB heavily he must get rid of the ball more quickly but those plays have a greater likelihood of YAC. While a QB who has more time to throw facing zones will complete passes further down the field without as much chance at YAC.

 

[borg]

Forgive me for hijacking my very own thread....but take a look at Jonathan Stewart...

2011 NFL Player Receiving Stats - National Football League - ESPN

The RB averages 5 yds/carry, caught 47 passes...all in a platoon with D Williams.
5'11" 235.....1 year left on his contract...$1.3 mill.
I admit, Stewart is my Binky.....ever since '09 when he took over for a hurt D Williams and ran amuck.....and what I remember most is....he steamrolled LBs and broke tackles. And now he catches passes as well. This is my Patriots dream 3 down back. Bulldozer Corey Dillon size, Fred Jackson hands

Can Stewart be had....in the same manner BB grabbed Welker, with a #2 plus sweetener? Carolina has issues on D. They signed Deangelo Williams to a crazy contract. Only 1 year left on Stewarts contract. At least the #2 will get a guy that can impact the team vs other #2s that....ahem, cough cough.

The YAC list is a who's who of players I'd love on NE.....Rice, Stewart, Jackson, Forte. Lets get Stewart this year and Cruz in '13........yeah baby

 

[ALP]

i dont see why YAC should not be a factor, almost everything should count, and yes, i believe this should

a 50 yd screen pass is not the same as a 50 yd bomb

i was leaning heavily towards brees as the MVP until you post as a matter of fact....now i see whay aaron is prob the best choice

note: YAC is not solely on the reciever, but DOES have a good amount to do with the QB, and how good he throws (ie hitting wr in stride)

 

[borg]

i dont see why YAC should not be a factor, almost everything should count, and yes, i believe this should

a 50 yd screen pass is not the same as a 50 yd bomb

i was leaning heavily towards brees as the MVP until you post as a matter of fact....now i see whay aaron is prob the best choice

note: YAC is not solely on the reciever, but DOES have a good amount to do with the QB, and how good he throws (ie hitting wr in stride)

Another way to look at the Brees/Rodgers matchup......If Rodgers equalled Brees' pass attempts, he would have thrown for 1000+ more yards than Brees assuming Rodgers maintained his YPA of 13.
Read the King analysis....he factors in wins, losses,multiple INT games, head to head.
I added quality of weapons, risk of offense, and YAC.
The Brees lovers arguement comes down to.....10 passes to go 80 yards is better than 8 passes to go 80 yards.

 

[borg]

Rodgers is going to win end of discussion. Sorry, even Sean Peyton's attempt at stat padding isn't going to help Brees. Yes, the Saints and Packers throw the ball a lot. I swear it seems like Rodgers throw the ball every down, seriously. However, The media gave the MVP to Rodgers a long time ago. Not enough time to swing the vote. As for the YAC,teams play to the ability of their players. Case close! TB has succeeded with Randy Moss, Troy Brown, David Givens, Branch etc.

Patriots(3rd) had 60 more pass attempts than Green Bay(14)

 

[Ring 6]

i dont see why YAC should not be a factor, almost everything should count, and yes, i believe this should

a 50 yd screen pass is not the same as a 50 yd bomb

i was leaning heavily towards brees as the MVP until you post as a matter of fact....now i see whay aaron is prob the best choice

note: YAC is not solely on the reciever, but DOES have a good amount to do with the QB, and how good he throws (ie hitting wr in stride)

Comparing a 50 yard screen to a 50 yard bomb as if 1 QB only throws one and another only throws the other is silly.
Realistically the difference is more like a fraction of a yard per completion different. Are we really saying a QB that completes in an average of 8.25 yards downfield and got 4 yac is playing a different game than the QB who completed it 8 yards downfield and got 5 yac?

And again, game plan, how you are defensed and accuracy can account for all of that as well.

 

[Ring 6]

Another way to look at the Brees/Rodgers matchup......If Rodgers equalled Brees' pass attempts, he would have thrown for 1000+ more yards than Brees assuming Rodgers maintained his YPA of 13.
Read the King analysis....he factors in wins, losses,multiple INT games, head to head.
I added quality of weapons, risk of offense, and YAC.
The Brees lovers arguement comes down to.....10 passes to go 80 yards is better than 8 passes to go 80 yards.

There is no question Rodgers should be the MVP.
He lead his team to 13-0 (or whatever it was before they lost) by being the best player on the field in all of those games.
Rodgers is the primary reason that his team had the best regular season.
Brees compiled the most yards by throwing the most times.
There is a significant difference in those things.

 

[JJDChE]

Forgive me for hijacking my very own thread....but take a look at Jonathan Stewart...

2011 NFL Player Receiving Stats - National Football League - ESPN

The RB averages 5 yds/carry, caught 47 passes...all in a platoon with D Williams.
5'11" 235.....1 year left on his contract...$1.3 mill.
I admit, Stewart is my Binky.....ever since '09 when he took over for a hurt D Williams and ran amuck.....and what I remember most is....he steamrolled LBs and broke tackles. And now he catches passes as well. This is my Patriots dream 3 down back. Bulldozer Corey Dillon size, Fred Jackson hands

Can Stewart be had....in the same manner BB grabbed Welker, with a #2 plus sweetener? Carolina has issues on D. They signed Deangelo Williams to a crazy contract. Only 1 year left on Stewarts contract. At least the #2 will get a guy that can impact the team vs other #2s that....ahem, cough cough.

The YAC list is a who's who of players I'd love on NE.....Rice, Stewart, Jackson, Forte. Lets get Stewart this year and Cruz in '13........yeah baby

Stewart will be pricey. He's a first round pick who has been in a RBBC committee his whole career, yet excelled every time he's had his chances. He's big and fast and shown he can tote the rock for big ypa and catch the ball out of the backfield. And he's 24. It's the Michael Turner situation all over again. Pats won't be able to sniff Stewart's salary demands. He'll be the focal point of some crap team's offense.

 

[robbomango]

Nice breakdown borg,

The fact that a QB is getting it done with RB's is pretty impressive as well, look at the size of these little targets, Sproles 5'6", Woody 5'8", welker 5'9". GB's WR's 5'10" 5'11",6'0", 6'1", 6'3", 6'5". TB's always talking about the big difference size makes when having to be accurate Gronk/Moss 2 perfect examples. That being said it's not a big concern to me who get's MVP, give it to Rogders or Brees.

Wish they'd just call it MVQB

I thought this article was interesting, a look at the top 3 QB's and their offense power, NO, GB, NE.

In a battle of best, Tom Brady may get the nod - Boston.com

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This gets ridiculous if you start to dissect the stats too far.

How many times have I seen Aaron Rodgers find a receiver open 50 yards downfield with no defender within 20 yards? At least four times, but I'm sure the actual number is much higher.

The fact is you have three quarterbacks who would win the award in nine out of ten seasons, but there is only one award to give. Brees deserved it in '09, but the media gave it to Manning for no reason and no one objected. Unfortunately, he won't get it this year either because Rodgers is winning this with 30+ votes.

I don't care because Brady is the best quarterback in the league and everyone knows it. When is the last time you saw him throw jump balls into double coverage because his receiver had a height advantage? When is the last time he had seven stellar weapons that could all be #2 receivers at worst on other teams?

So let those two pad their stats and duke it out because I don't really care. I expect Brady will just use it as more motivation, and I hope the team rallies around him if they make the SB against one of these "unstoppable" quarterbacks.

 

[ausbacker]

What that says to me is Brady throws the ball into a place where the receiver can make a play after the catch. That's an impressive skill.

 

[Ring 6]

This gets ridiculous if you start to dissect the stats too far.

How many times have I seen Aaron Rodgers find a receiver open 50 yards downfield with no defender within 20 yards? At least four times, but I'm sure the actual number is much higher.

The fact is you have three quarterbacks who would win the award in nine out of ten seasons, but there is only one award to give. Brees deserved it in '09, but the media gave it to Manning for no reason and no one objected. Unfortunately, he won't get it this year either because Rodgers is winning this with 30+ votes.

I don't care because Brady is the best quarterback in the league and everyone knows it. When is the last time you saw him throw jump balls into double coverage because his receiver had a height advantage? When is the last time he had seven stellar weapons that could all be #2 receivers at worst on other teams?

So let those two pad their stats and duke it out because I don't really care. I expect Brady will just use it as more motivation, and I hope the team rallies around him if they make the SB against one of these "unstoppable" quarterbacks.

I think Brady is playing for winning. He surely is also playing to be the best, but if he wins, and has a season personally he is proud of, I think he is fine with someone else having a better one, as long as he ends up with the Lombardi. I'm quite sure he would trade the 2 he has for titles.

 

[borg]

This gets ridiculous if you start to dissect the stats too far.

How many times have I seen Aaron Rodgers find a receiver open 50 yards downfield with no defender within 20 yards? At least four times, but I'm sure the actual number is much higher.

The fact is you have three quarterbacks who would win the award in nine out of ten seasons, but there is only one award to give. Brees deserved it in '09, but the media gave it to Manning for no reason and no one objected. Unfortunately, he won't get it this year either because Rodgers is winning this with 30+ votes.

I don't care because Brady is the best quarterback in the league and everyone knows it. When is the last time you saw him throw jump balls into double coverage because his receiver had a height advantage? When is the last time he had seven stellar weapons that could all be #2 receivers at worst on other teams?

So let those two pad their stats and duke it out because I don't really care. I expect Brady will just use it as more motivation, and I hope the team rallies around him if they make the SB against one of these "unstoppable" quarterbacks.

Five yard pass to Welker, breaks a tackle with a stiff arm....result ....a Tom Brady 99 yarder.

Twelve yard pass to Gronk, boom bang bang boom thump bwop....result...a Tom Brady 47 yarder

And you make it sound like Brady plays with awful players...like the #1 slot receiver in the NFL....and the #1 TE......and another top 5 TE.......I know....alll Brady....1700 YAC be damned.

Just curious how Rodgers pads his stats. Green Bay threw 60 fewer passes than the Patriots this year. Rodgers sat out game 16. And wasn't it the Patriots that had Hoyer chuck one to Gronk for a record instead of taking a knee. Brady/Moss were the epitome of padding stats in '07.....I know...Pats good, world bad.

 

[ALP]

however, if we want to discuss MVP, lets get to the basics:

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

if GB did not have Rodgers, and Flynn was starting, what would u presume their record would have been? Id say 11 or 12 wins at least

if NO did not have brees, i would say their record is a LOT worse (i have no knowledge about who is backup at NO)

i believe if we did not have Brady, our record would suffer just as much if not more than NO

so in this sense, Aaron should NOT be mvp

 

[PatsGirl2011]

The Pats were behind more than GB this season, thus, more pass attempts.

 

[ExpatPack]

however, if we want to discuss MVP, lets get to the basics:

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

if GB did not have Rodgers, and Flynn was starting, what would u presume their record would have been? Id say 11 or 12 wins at least

if NO did not have brees, i would say their record is a LOT worse (i have no knowledge about who is backup at NO)

i believe if we did not have Brady, our record would suffer just as much if not more than NO

so in this sense, Aaron should NOT be mvp

That's a silly argument. That just means that Matt Flynn is a far better QB than the backup QBs for NO or NE. What does that have to do with the MVP? So, if Flynn were the backup QB behind Brady or Brees, does that mean that their chances for the MVP should suffer?

 

[Fencer]

The COMBINED accomplishment for the QB and WR is the same whether the yards come on a deep thrown or YAC. Indeed, if there's any difference, it favors the YAC play, because the deep throw is more dependent on the OL.

OK, then -- do we think a WR who gets lots of yards via YAC is a better player than the one who gets the same yards by catching the ball a considerable distance downfield? If not, then we shouldn't say he has the lesser QB.

 

[borg]

The COMBINED accomplishment for the QB and WR is the same whether the yards come on a deep thrown or YAC. Indeed, if there's any difference, it favors the YAC play, because the deep throw is more dependent on the OL.

OK, then -- do we think a WR who gets lots of yards via YAC is a better player than the one who gets the same yards by catching the ball a considerable distance downfield? If not, then we shouldn't say he has the lesser QB.

YAC makes a QB look better and YAC seperates receivers from their peers. Just eliminate the YAC of Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez and Brady is down to 3300 yards. Gronk without YAC is GB TE Finley.
Personally, I think players with the highest YAC potential allow a higher percentage offense. What O coordinator wouldn't prefer shorter, easier passes that result in the same production as riskier downfield passes.
Look at Jonathan Stewarts receiving game.....47 catches, 413 yds....but his YAC is 501 yds. In other words, Stewart is catching the ball 2 yards BEHIND the line of scrimmage on average, then fighting thru the D line for 2 yards to the line of scrimmage plus 9 yards for a total of 11 verticle yards. Low risk, decent reward. Easy yards for Cam Newtons stats.

My point in this excercise, compared to Brady and Brees, the yardage Rogers accumulates is gained is due to higher risk passes....down field passes. And I believe dropping a ball on a target 30 yds downfield, over the LBs and thru the secondary, is harder than dropping a ball 5 yards on a target, in front of the back 7....or -2 yds on a target, in front of the 11 defenders. There was a reason Brady was handed a dink and dunk offense his first few years, because it is easier. He basically has the same offense now, but his guys are playmakers now, not just pass catchers.
Rodgers plays in a riskier offense with less playmakers than Brees.....but has been more efficient at it in terms of YPA, YPC, INTs. He's had a Brady/Moss 2007 season....but with a higher QB rating.....a season for the ages. You all were happy for MVP Tom "Goin Deep" Brady in '07.....Rodgers has been better