An odd Welker fact

[ctpatsfan77]

Here are the players in the top 20 for career games with 8+ catches, and their teams' records in those games:

1. Marvin Harrison, IND, 32-19
2. Jerry Rice*, SFO/OAK/SEA, 30-20
3. Cris Carter, PHI/MIN, 31-12
4. Hines Ward, PIT, 25-15-1
5. Isaac Bruce, STL/SFO, 15-20
6t. Wes Welker, MIA/NE, 28-7
6t. Jimmy Smith, JAX, 20-15
8t. Anquan Boldin, ARI/BAL, 13-21
8t. Tony Gonzalez, KAN/ATL, 13-21
10t. Terrell Owens, SFO/PHI/DAL/BUF/CIN, 21-12
10t. Andre Johnson, HOU, 18-15
12t. Randy Moss, MIN/NE, 21-11
12t. Torry Holt, STL, 15-17
14t. Tim Brown, OAK, 14-17
14t. Derrick Mason, TEN/BAL, 14-17
16. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR/CHI, 17-13
17. Eric Moulds, BUF/HOU, 11-18
18t. Reggie Wayne, IND, 18-9
18t. Rod Smith, DEN, 15-12
18t. Steve Smith, CAR, 15-12
18t. Keenan McCardell, CLE/JAX/TAM/SDG, 11-16

For nearly half of these players, when they caught 8+ passes, their team was more likely to have lost the game. So why is it that with Welker, the Pats are four times more likely to have won the game?

 

[IcyPatriot]

Because ... "it is what it is" ...

Very interesting ... reminds me of when Terry Glenn would have a great game and we would still lose.

 

[robbomango]

Trippy stat

EDIT: 6 got it. I'm out of it lmao

3 reasons
1. he's Wes the Atomatic reception machine
2. TB
3. BB

 

[ALP]

i would assume because if we are playing from behind, welker is not really a big yd/catch type of guy, not a hail mary type of long pass guy

this means that he does not get targeted as much in games in which we are down big for a quick score

a second reason is because of the types of routes he runs, they are more of a high % of success/something good hapening, as with some other guys there its on the outsides, or deep balls, and they can get intercepted/pass defensed, which is a plus for the other team.....

 

[PatsGirl2011]

I think when Welker is able to get open and catch the ball, the Pats are probably moving the ball on offense. Thus, they are dictating the game.

 

[patsfan-1982]

because the pats have only lost 15 games in the 5 years welker has been here, its the same with all the top 6 guys they all played on good teams

 

[supafly]

I think when Welker is able to get open and catch the ball, the Pats are probably moving the ball on offense. Thus, they are dictating the game.

Yes, I think this is a pretty good answer right here.

Nice find, ct--thanks.

Good to know that we have an 80% chance of winning when Welker catches at least 8 passes.

When you combine that stat with the 101-5 'turnover' stat, all we need to do is find a way for Wes to get open and hang onto the ball. Those 2 factors will almost always guarantee a victory. Although it's certainly easier said than done, they are 2 very important factors.

I will feel much better if/when he re-signs here, that's for sure. His chemistry with Tom Brady is one of the most important aspects of the entire offense, maybe even one of the most important factors of the entire team.

 

[supafly]

because the pats have only lost 15 games in the 5 years welker has been here, its the same with all the top 6 guys they all played on good teams

That's certainly very noteworthy too. I suspect that Welker had a lot to do with much of that success.

 

[Husse]

Hmm, so, why is it Bruce is ahead of Welker and Smith?

5. Isaac Bruce, STL/SFO, 15-20
6t. Wes Welker, MIA/NE, 28-7
6t. Jimmy Smith, JAX, 20-15

 

[patsfan-1982]

Hmm, so, why is it Bruce is ahead of Welker and Smith?

5. Isaac Bruce, STL/SFO, 15-20
6t. Wes Welker, MIA/NE, 28-7
6t. Jimmy Smith, JAX, 20-15

i think the site is going by who has the most 8+ rec games in there career and CT was pointing out how good the pats record is when he does get 8 or more rec

 

[patsfan-1982]

That's certainly very noteworthy too. I suspect that Welker had a lot to do with much of that success.

i agree he has been a big part of the team success and a even bigger part in the offenses success he has helped Brady go from puting up really good stats to Video games stats

 

[supafly]

i agree he has been a big part of the team success and a even bigger part in the offenses success he has helped Brady go from puting up really good stats to Video games stats

No doubt. I hope that he continues to be a big part of this offense for at least the next few seasons, and I think he has the potential to do that.

I also think that Welker's continued success for the next few seasons here will also go into factoring Brady's number of years remaining with this team. I just can't make enough of a point about the timing and chemistry of these 2 guys, and a successful Welker through the next few yrs could in essence, help to extend the life of Brady's career here.

Maybe I'm adding 3+3 and getting 7, or simply looking too much into it, but I see no reason to think that another few successful yrs of Welker in this offense can't help to coincide with Brady's success here too. We all wanted about another 5-6 yrs of Brady after this season, and by keeping Welker around for at least 3-4 more yrs, we can almost guarantee that happens, barring serious injury of course.

It certainly can't be a 'bad' thing for Tom, that's for sure. Keeping his 'go-to' guy is an absolute must, in my opinion. An absolute must.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

It certainly can't be a 'bad' thing for Tom, that's for sure. Keeping his 'go-to' guy is an absolute must, in my opinion. An absolute must.

Yeah, a QB can't have too many binkies.

I wonder how many QBs "don't" check down to a RB that often. It seems a part of the game (eyeball test) that isn't utlized that much. Which mostly means our guys are getting open or the check-down isn't the best option. Which would seem to be a good problem to have.

 

[Husse]

i think the site is going by who has the most 8+ rec games in there career and CT was pointing out how good the pats record is when he does get 8 or more rec

Yes, but if you tally the games, they all end up at 35 8+ catches games, but despite that, Welker and Smith having a better win % they still end up tied for 6 while Bruce with equal amounts of 8+ catches games and a worse winning % in those game end up at 5.

Seems strange.

 

[DarrylS]

Interesting stat, but would like to know how many games it took for each to accomplish this goal??? Think that Welkers would have been done in a shorter period of time...

 

[ALP]

Yes, but if you tally the games, they all end up at 35 8+ catches games, but despite that, Welker and Smith having a better win % they still end up tied for 6 while Bruce with equal amounts of 8+ catches games and a worse winning % in those game end up at 5.

Seems strange.

if bruce, welker and smith all have the same number of 8+ games, than the list is wrong, but im thinking you missed something, and bruce has more 8+ games than the other two guys....

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Yes, but if you tally the games, they all end up at 35 8+ catches games, but despite that, Welker and Smith having a better win % they still end up tied for 6 while Bruce with equal amounts of 8+ catches games and a worse winning % in those game end up at 5.

Seems strange.

That's because ctpatsfan77 did this way too late last night, and couldn't add properly. :bricks: