AFC East Blog - ESPN
He explains pretty good reasons....except fails to mention the defense too much which is really the only thing that could stop them.
Fair point, but I look to the past when trying to predict the Pats defensive performance in the playoffs this year:
2005 - The Pats defense did a tremendous job on the road at Denver. Picks and fumbles put them in terrible position but they still kept the game winnable, but the offense had a terrible day.
2006 - Giving up 4 TDs in the 2nd half at Indy was a massive defensive breakdown, but that breakdown was physical...heat (80+ degrees), fatigue (4th roadie in 5 weeks, including SD the week before) and illness. Holding the Colts to 6 points in the first half while getting a pick 6 should have been enough.
2007 - The game that shan't be named wasn't a defensive failure...apart from a couple of missed opportunities that would have ended the game. While the offense picked the worst possible time to get sluggish, I do blame the defensive gameplan for allowing the opening soul-crushing 10 minute drive that set the tone for the rest of the game.
2009 - Outside of the opening play (a result of Wilfork/Warren playing much less than 100%), the defense didn't have a chance. The Ravens started most drives already in scoring position and decided that they didn't need to pass. It is liberating to know that all you need to do is get 3.4 ypc and even if you fail you can still kick a FG.
2010 - The only points the Jets could manage in the 1st 3 quarters started on drives in Pats territory. The Pats offense pissed away opportunities to take an early lead and that lead to Sanchez feeling no pressure to do anything but not lose the game (when he is at his best). The botched play that let Cotchery rumble for 50+ yards was the only defensive issue in the game.
So what do these playoff losses tell us about the Pats?
1) The offense needs to be efficient and not put the defense behind the 8-ball.
2) Don't let the opposition think that they are dictating the flow of the game. Don't allow them to shorten the game or operate well within their comfort zone...even if that means being exposed on a deep pass.
3) When turnover opportunities present themselves, take advantage.
4) Blow up any receiver operating in the middle of the field. Don't look for an overthrow or tipped ball...light up the receiver.
Can the Pats do this?
1) The offense is wildly efficient. If Gronk, Hernandez and Welker are 100% healthy, Brady should be able to find quick mismatches on just about any play.
2) This relates to the gameplan and is my biggest worry. Against anyone in the AFC, the Pats win if the game becomes a track meet (or is at least perceived to be that way). A 3-play touchdown drive is actually less destructive than a 19-play FG drive in a one-n-done situation.
3) I'm supremely confident in the ability of the offense to limit turnovers. The defense has shown a knack of getting their share of turnovers. Even better if the forced fumble tendencies of last week can become a habit.
4) This is the reason why Meriweather and Sanders are on new teams. Sanders was never close enough to hit anyone and Meriweather was only good at generating penalties. Chung and Ihedigbo have the potential but need to put it into practice. Mayo and Spikes need to get greater depth in their drops but can bring the lumber if they get in position.
So if they stay relatively healthy and Belichick releases the hounds, I'm actually pretty confident. The thinking that Belichick doesn't fully realize the player capabilities he has and won't be able to develop an opponent-specific gameplan (which he really hasn't done this year) in the playoffs...well that just doesn't wash with history.
