Is the MVP race open again? (merged)

[BradyManny]

For some time now, I have been saying that Aaron Rodgers admittedly epic production this year needs to come with the caveat that he is feasting on the very bottom of the league, and a remarkably easy schedule.

The highlight of Rodgers season was a 4 game stretch against four teams in the bottom 10 in the league in opposing QB rating (and one opponent, San Diego, was even worse at the time), including 2 games against the Vikes, the worst in the league - and in that stretch, he threw 14 TDs to 1 INT, and had his 3 highest passer ratings of the season).

Drew Brees is arguably having as productive a season as Rodgers - granted against a similarly easy schedule, but having watched both play quite a bit recently, I can definitively say Brees is playing better than any QB in the league right now.

Brady is on their heels - if he had less turnovers, I would say he would have a case.

And realistically, I think we also have to consider Gronkowski, who is having one of the best seasons any TE has had - and has been very instrumental in getting us to where we are at 11-3.

But I'm glad the Packers lost yesterday, b/c as I've been saying for a month or so, their perfect season was a little bit smoke & mirrors - and the notion that Rodgers season was head & shoulders above Brees, or even Brady, didn't hold up when one took a closer look.

 

[supafly]

Yeah, I'd say it's a lot more open than yesterday; but it's definitely between Brees and Rodgers, and them only...don't let the media fool you.

You'd have to think that Brees now has a better chance at taking some of the votes away after that incredible peformance yesterday. Then when he breaks Marino's record in a week or two, it will certainly be huge news.

I think the Pack losing makes Brees a much more likely candidate, when you consider all of the (due) attention that he'll receive for breaking the record, and establishing a new one.

 

[patchick]

I think it's definitely open between Brees and Rodgers. Brees has more yards, a higher completion percentage, and fewer sacks. Rodgers has more TDs, fewer interceptions and a higher passer rating.

(In fact, Rodgers' sky-high passer rating may suggest that sacks aren't factored in highly enough in that score. He's averaging 1 sack for every 13 pass attempts, which is very high for an elite qb. For comparison, Brees is at 1:25, Brady 1:22.)

 

[randomk1]

I doubt it...the packers win out...Rodgers puts up good numbers and he wins it. Everybody has been on the bandwagon for the entire season. I doubt it's gonna change. And Brees has been feeding on some weak teams aswell...10 TDs alone against Vikes and Colts?

 

[NEPatriot]

Yeah, I'd say it's a lot more open than yesterday; but it's definitely between Brees and Rodgers, and them only...don't let the media fool you.

You'd have to think that Brees now has a better chance at taking some of the votes away after that incredible peformance yesterday. Then when he breaks Marino's record in a week or two, it will certainly be huge news.

I think the Pack losing makes Brees a much more likely candidate, when you consider all of the (due) attention that he'll receive for breaking the record, and establishing a new one.

I agree with your analysis. That said, I think Rodgers will have to struggle the last two weeks for Brees to win the MVP.

 

[RodThePat]

Brees has played more than half his games in a dome and has better weapons, defense and running game than Brady. He also throws the ball a lot more. I really do not see the case for Drew Brees as MVP, mostly because all of those yards can be atributed to the fact that he has thrown the football a million times (he averages 8.0 yards per attempt, as compared to Brady's 8.7) and also taking into account the fact that 737 yards and 10 TDs out of his gaudy stats were against the Colts and the Vikings, arguably the two worst teams in the NFL.

Rodgers is the MVP, but there is absolutely no way Brees has a case over Brady.

 

[ScottieC]

Brees has played more than half his games in a dome and has better weapons, defense and running game than Brady. He also throws the ball a lot more. I really do not see the case for Drew Brees as MVP, mostly because all of those yards can be atributed to the fact that he has thrown the football a million times (he averages 8.0 yards per attempt, as compared to Brady's 8.7) and also taking into account the fact that 737 yards and 10 TDs out of his gaudy stats were against the Colts and the Vikings, arguably the two worst teams in the NFL.

Rodgers is the MVP, but there is absolutely no way Brees has a case over Brady.

Whitout Brady, what's this team's record?

There's your case.

 

[RodThePat]

Whitout Brady, what's this team's record?

There's your case.

That's my whole point.

 

[patchick]

I doubt it...the packers win out...Rodgers puts up good numbers and he wins it. Everybody has been on the bandwagon for the entire season. I doubt it's gonna change

You don't think the wave of coverage when Brees breaks Marino's record could sway some voters?

(FWIW, I think Brady will get a smattering of votes but isn't a realistic contender, deserving or not.)

 

[RodThePat]

In 2009 Brees had a passer rating 10 points higher, broke the completion percentage record, and Manning still won the MVP despite the Saints and Colts both being the number one seed in their respective conferences. The argument was that Manning had less to work with and his team would suffer a lot more without him than the Saints would without Brees. I can't see how that very same argument doesn't apply to Bree and Brady in 2011, especially considering the statistical difference between both QBs is negligible, as opposed to Brees' marked superiority over Manning in 2009.

 

[randomk1]

You don't think the wave of coverage when Brees breaks Marino's record could sway some voters?

(FWIW, I think Brady will get a smattering of votes but isn't a realistic contender, deserving or not.)

Yeah...when you have like 3 guys passing over 5000 then it's hard to put much stock into Marino's record in today's NFL. I wouldn't be suprised if 5000 start to become the standard for elite QBs the way the NFL is trending.

 

[BradyManny]

You don't think the wave of coverage when Brees breaks Marino's record could sway some voters?

(FWIW, I think Brady will get a smattering of votes but isn't a realistic contender, deserving or not.)

I think you are right - Brees will earn some votes as attention is thrown his way once he breaks the record.

Both guys have had amazing seasons - and I'm fine with either one getting it. I'm just glad its no longer a no-brainer de-facto give it to Rodgers when there is clearly competition for it.

 

[Betterthanmost]

I really hope not, I don't like this award, he has won a few and they are ok. I would like for us to use the last two games of the regular season to iron out any problems in the running game. Keep Brady away from any silly hits by going empty back.
Run the ball the rest of the way. Only throw when it is necessary and not when ahead by three touchdowns.

 

[Simkin]

Buffalo game cost Brady back to back MVP

I think so. the 4 INT and consequently the loss has cost Brady the award. 12-2 with 7 int at this point will put Brady on the edge of the MVP run in front of PasstoJennings , I mean Rodgers.

 

[363839]

Re: Buffalo game cost Brady back to back MVP

It will be all good if TFB wins the Super Bowl MVP.

 

[Simkin]

Brees has played more than half his games in a dome and has better weapons, defense and running game than Brady. He also throws the ball a lot more. I really do not see the case for Drew Brees as MVP, mostly because all of those yards can be atributed to the fact that he has thrown the football a million times (he averages 8.0 yards per attempt, as compared to Brady's 8.7) and also taking into account the fact that 737 yards and 10 TDs out of his gaudy stats were against the Colts and the Vikings, arguably the two worst teams in the NFL.

Rodgers is the MVP, but there is absolutely no way Brees has a case over Brady.

Well Manning plays every season 10 games atleast on dome.

Its like if Brady can play every day on snow. Not fair

 

[wistahpatsfan]

Even though he's a great quarterback and is really playing out-of-his-mind football, Da Breeze has the luxury of the best offensive line in the NFL (arguable, of course). They are at or near the top of nearly every measureable category. His quick release of the ball is also very good, which works in unison with the line play and adds to the offensive efficiency.

"The Saint offense currently ranks third, behind Green Bay and New England, by GWP. Beyond that, the offensive line is second in -WPA and first, by quite a bit, in -EPA -- both of which metrics measure how good an offensive line is at preventing opposing defenses from making plays that result in losses (of WPA and EPA, respectively, in this case). Furthermore, the Saints feature the second-highest run success rate (Run SR), third-highest Pass SR, and highest overall SR in the league.
Don't Underestimate the New Orleans Saints' Offensive Line

It won't happen, but I think Brady is still the MVP, especially when you consider the weapons Brees and Rogers enjoy.

 

[BradyManny]

Re: Buffalo game cost Brady back to back MVP

He also had 4TD tosses in that game, so that would have to be taken out too.

Granted, there have been a few dropped TDs that cost Brady (couple to Hernandez), and a few plays that ended on the 1. The refs also cost him a TD yesterday.

That said - if Rodgers doesn't win it, its Brees. The guy is having just as impressive a season as Rodgers.

 

[Simkin]

Re: Buffalo game cost Brady back to back MVP

Well, I like our guys but its clearly different pass to the corps and rely on the RB that Brees have than Brady's. Same for Rodgers and pass rushers, front seven, and Woodson

 

[BradyManny]

Even though he's a great quarterback and is really playing out-of-his-mind football, Da Breeze has the luxury of the best offensive line in the NFL (arguable, of course). They are at or near the top of nearly every measureable category. His quick release of the ball is also very good, which works in unison with the line play and adds to the offensive efficiency.

"The Saint offense currently ranks third, behind Green Bay and New England, by GWP. Beyond that, the offensive line is second in -WPA and first, by quite a bit, in -EPA -- both of which metrics measure how good an offensive line is at preventing opposing defenses from making plays that result in losses (of WPA and EPA, respectively, in this case). Furthermore, the Saints feature the second-highest run success rate (Run SR), third-highest Pass SR, and highest overall SR in the league.
Don't Underestimate the New Orleans Saints' Offensive Line

It won't happen, but I think Brady is still the MVP, especially when you consider the weapons Brees and Rogers enjoy.

The fact that the Saints, Packers and Patriots are the top 3 in that OL metric suggests to me that the OL metric says as much about QB play as it does OL play. That's not to take away from those OL units. But this season, we've been plugging guys in and out of our line - and its also a huge credit to Scar - but we've kept on producing.