idle thoughts....pre-game observations

[patfanken]

Nothing on TV, no chores to catch up on, and a number of diverse thoughts to set down for your perusal and comment

1. I am now convinced that Peyton Manning has played his final game as a Colt. He is another victim of his own contract. The Colts CANNOT pass up Luck, nor can they start to rebuild a team when so much of their cap assets would be tied up in the QB position. It's time for the Colts to start the rebuilding process and endure a couple of years of mediocrity while they try to rebuild their team around another franchise QB.

2. With this reality becoming the common wisdom more and more each day, the next question that arises is what can the Colts get in trade for a future HOF QB. I would opine....not much. At least not as much as most fans think. For as good a QB as Manning has been, he IS coming off of 3 neck surgeries. He IS 36 years old. He HAS just missed the entire season. He has NEVER played a majority of his games outside. He has only played in one offense, so whomever trades for him will have to use Payton's offense. And finally, he comes WITH a massive salary cap hit.

The only thing that comes close to a comparison was when the Chiefs traded for Joe Montana at the end of his career. They gave up a first pick for him but got a 3rd rounder plus a starting player in return. I'm not draft savvy enough to know what that translates to in slot terms, but it is certainly LESS than a #1 pick. In fact if you add in Manning's contract and medical condition, he is less inviting than Montana was at this stage of his career. I'm thinking that the Colts would be lucky to get a 3rd or 4th for him. A lot less than the common wisdom is expecting

Its a strange case where the untried pick is worth a lot more than the proven HOF aging starter.

3, The next question is WHERE is the best Manning fit. He's not going to want to go to any team that is not a playoff contender. The team that gets him will HAVE to have a solid OL, and some receivers. They would have to be willing change their offense to Manning's. In other words they would be getting a QB AND an OC. Miami would be the best fit IMHO. They seem to have a good defense, solid OL, and talented WRs. With Manning and a talented receiving TE, the Dolphins would have an offense to match the Pats.

I am not liking that scenario.

4. Eric Moore is back and Cunningham looks like he's moving to the IR. This would end a REALLY disappointing season for Cunningham, who looked so promising his rookie year. Its too early to give up on him just yet, but that being said, realistically you can't plan for the future counting on him to be productive.

5. Ryan Kerrigan turned out to be the player may of us hoped he'd be for the Pats. Its very interesting to see how well he's done. But given the impact that Nate Solder has been this season, I wonder who would have had the bigger impact to the team's success.

It would have been nice to have a young OLB who can rush the passer and still be solid against the run But its also hard to think about where the OL would have been without Solder to fill in as a LT, RT, and TE. I don't think there is a right or wrong answer here, just an interesting question.

BTW- its not like he was there for the Pats to take. Washington was ahead of the Pats, and the Pats would have had to find a trading partner to make the move up.

6. I can't understand the big fine Mayo got. First IMHO, the picture they had posted on PFT clearly showed Mayo hitting Orlovsky with his face mask planted right in his CHEST, a perfect form tackle. Unless you thought the hit was late, I don't understand the fine, ESPECIALLY when one would think the league had the time to review it from all the angles. The ref didn't think in merited a flag.

Secondly, why such a big fine. I don't recall Mayo as being a constant repeat offender, and how does the league justify fining Seymour just $7500 for punching a player and getting thrown out, yet fines Mayo twenty grand for what was AT BEST a marginal infraction. It makes no sense.

7. The key to the Washington game is simple. It will hinge on how well Solder and Light do against Orakbo and Kerrigan. If they limit them to under 10 sacks/hits/hurries, then this game will be a cake walk.

8 I'm sorry that Laron Landry isn't likely to play. Since he is one of the FA's I'd love to see the Pats pick up this off season, I wanted to see him in action for myself

9. Since it is very likely that the Skins will play the Pats aggressively up front. I am interested to see how the Pats offense has progressed in attacking that "blueprint" style. Look for the Skins to double BOTH Gronk and Welker, playing them physically underneath with help over the top. Then play Branch and Hernandez one on one. Could be a big day for Hernandez, receptions by the RBs and the run game

10. Once again we embark on another episode of the season ending road to media and fan dissatisfaction. I am now convinced that there is nothing this team can do over the final 4 games that will encourage or satisfy the now spoiled media and fan base. Winning certainly doesn't do the job anymore. Its no longer good enough. Style points seem to now matter more than substance. This shouldn't be a surprise since we live in an age where "style" is valued over "substance"

11. The thing for me is that its taken a lot of the enjoyment of the build up to any of these games. Media comment is so predictable I no longer listen to a lot of the programming that has built up over the decade to cater to rabid Pats fans.

For those of you who closely follow the programming at Patriots.com, its like its "Nitpick Tuesday" all week long. The Pats can no longer draft. They can't play defense. The OL is shaky. And all of our personnel is not as good as the other team's, except for Gronk and Brady. Every injury the opposing team has is a massive lucky break, while we can play our 4th starting Center of the year with hardly a comment. In fact the only thing I really look forward to is the Patriot all Access segments that show the locker rooom after the game and "their path to the NFL"

Like I've said before, as far as the media and fan base goes, NOTHING we do in the last 4 games matters. Until this team wins a playoff game, we will just sleep walk through this month, needlessly b!ching and moaning like a bunch of entitled reality TV "stars". Fortunately this angst doesn't permeate the team we follow. Bill has build a bubble around them and allows them do simply "do their job" and provide us with the wins, that we no longer deem to be "enough"

Sorry for repeating my own little "whine". I am resigned to it now, and it won't be mentioned again. But, in that vein though I hope the game day "chicken littles" will wait until the middle of 2nd quarter before they start to throw in the towel.

 

[fnordcircle]

10. The thing for me is that its taken a lot of the enjoyment of the build up to any of these games. Media comment is so predictable I no longer listen to a lot of the programming that has built up over the decade to cater to rabid Pats fans.

I couldn't have said it better. This is the most entitled fanbase in the league.

I honestly wish at times that the Patriots were a team playing for a completely different region just because I love this team so much the amount of BS our fanbase generates pisses me off.

Could you imagine how beloved they would be if this entire organization was playing for one of the more positive/upbeat fanbases like KC or GB?

Instead here we are cruising towards a likely 13-3 season and people are *****ing like the sky is falling. Is this team perfect? No.

Should we be thankful for what we have? Yes.

Frankly there's a part of me who won't mind the inevitable drop-off this team will have if only so we can shed some of the morons who just can't seem to enjoy more than a decade of winning.

 

[Willie55]

9. Once again we embark on another episode of the season ending road to media and fan dissatisfaction. I am now convinced that there is nothing this team can do over the final 4 games that will encourage or satisfy the now spoiled media and fan base. Winning certainly doesn't do the job anymore. Its no longer good enough. Style points seem to now matter more than substance. This shouldn't surprise me given we live in an age where people like the Kardashians become celebrities with nary a wit of talent or purpose.

You have hit the nail squarely on the head. Back in the early 80's to mid 80's, then late 80's early to mid 90's, and late 90's, fans dreamed of what the Patriots are now.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Agree about the pervasive negativity in the media coverage. I'm personally critical of Pats draft strategies and selections but not to the degree of the media and I'm certainly not consumed by it. Enough already.

That said, I punted on media coverage years ago. The insights I read here on Patsfans are more thoughtful even those from whom whose viewpoints are quite different from mine but are well substantiated.

Watching Brady et. al. this year I'm feeling a bit of sadness anticipating in a few more seasons the end of this once in a football fan's lifetime phenomenon. Enough of that too and back to savoring the last four games of another wonderful season.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Agree about the pervasive negativity in the media coverage. I'm personally critical of Pats draft strategies and selections but not to the degree of the media and I'm certainly not consumed by it. Enough already.

That said, I punted on media coverage years ago. The insights I read here on Patsfans are more thoughtful even those from whom whose viewpoints are quite different from mine but are well substantiated.

Watching Brady et. al. this year I'm feeling a bit of sadness anticipating in a few more seasons the end of this once in a football fan's lifetime phenomenon. Enough of that too and back to savoring the last four games of another wonderful season.

Pretty much my thoughts, too. You really have to be selective about which media you pay attention to — not to avoid the critical, but to avoid the non-sense, which most of it is. And by all means never let it interfere with your enjoyment of the actual games.

PWP's last paragraph does sum up, I think, a lot of why fans can still be anxious about this team, even with its consistently glorious record. TFB won't be around forever and each missed opportunity, from SB$@ to two straight home one-and-dones, adds to that melancholy feeling of something slipping away.

As for Manning, I was thinking about this yesterday: I sure hope Brady's days as a Patriot end in a smoother manner than Manning's would under Ken's scenario. But maybe it's inevitable. Not the injury and 0-16, heaven forbid; just the awkward transition and both parties moving on. I don't see Brady wanting to play for another coach or team, unless it's one or two years in SF. Well, best not to think about it too much, eh?

 

[SanAngeloState]

They play 4 pretty mediocre teams. Of course there's not much that they can do to impress. They can impress me if they win a post season game, just one, against a baltimore or pittsburgh. That would be impressive for me.

 

[RodThePat]

I couldn't have said it better. This is the most entitled fanbase in the league.

I honestly wish at times that the Patriots were a team playing for a completely different region just because I love this team so much the amount of BS our fanbase generates pisses me off.

Could you imagine how beloved they would be if this entire organization was playing for one of the more positive/upbeat fanbases like KC or GB?

Instead here we are cruising towards a likely 13-3 season and people are *****ing like the sky is falling. Is this team perfect? No.

Should we be thankful for what we have? Yes.

Frankly there's a part of me who won't mind the inevitable drop-off this team will have if only so we can shed some of the morons who just can't seem to enjoy more than a decade of winning.

This line of thought irritates me to no end. Every fanbase of a winning team is like that. Should we be satisfied by just winning the division every year? This team, the way it's built, should be able to at the very least be among the final 4 clubs competing for a SuperBowl. If you think winning the division and getting eliminated in the first round of the postseason is enough, and something we should be grateful for, you have a really weird mindset as a fan.

If, in 15 years, we have a middling team without a HOF coach and QB, I guarantee you winning 13 games and going to the playoffs would get everybody very excited. However, that's not the situation we are in. You can only "enjoy" a team if the results they achieve at least correspond to the expectations you had. For a fanbase like the Jets, losing in the AFC title game twice in a row, is an enormou achievment, while we'd look at it as two wasted opportunities. That's just the way it is, we shouldn't be grateful for merely having an above average team that doesn't compete for a title when the marbles are on the table. Some fans look at how the team is playing this season and they worry that they are repeating many of the same mistakes that prevented them from challenging for a Lombardi in recent years. That's where the concern lies.

 

[shmessy]

Sorry for repeating my own little "whine". I am resigned to it now, and it won't be mentioned again. But, in that vein though I hope the game day "chicken littles" will wait until the middle of 2nd quarter before they start to throw in the towel.

I'll be at the game tomorrow, so I won't be able to ban Simkin, RT 726 and Ric Flair from the gameday thread when they inevitably wet their pants before the last note of the national anthem.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Nothing on TV, no chores to catch up on, and a number of diverse thoughts to set down for your perusal and comment

1. I am now convinced that Peyton Manning has played his final game as a Colt. He is another victim of his own contract. The Colts CANNOT pass up Luck, nor can they start to rebuild a team when so much of their cap assets would be tied up in the QB position. It's time for the Colts to start the rebuilding process and endure a couple of years of mediocrity while they try to rebuild their team around another franchise QB.

2. With this reality becoming the common wisdom more and more each day, the next question that arises is what can the Colts get in trade for a future HOF QB. I would opine....not much.

If I read it correctly, the only course for the Colts is to cut him before the new NFL year and avoid a $26 million bonus or pay the bonus and be hamstrung because his dead cap number would be $38 million if they traded him since they can't trade him before then......If he retired, it would save the Colts a lot of agita. IMNSHO, Archie's better move would have been to say, "of course Peyton and Andrew Luck can coexist" knowing it would never happen from a financial (cap) point of view....

 

[Mainefan]

The negativity is understandable. The expectations are high. The Patriots are habitual contenders. This is what happens in a dynastic period. The fans no longer yearn for the crown, they resent any possibility their team will not win it.

What's the cure?

Maybe this: It's not as if the SAME Patriots team has been contending every year for the last decade. Each year, the team is different, and sometimes quite different. For that reason, each season must, first of all, be looked at in isolation. It is unique. It isn't as if the guys aren't doing so well this year, or that they're doing better than last year. It's that they're different guys, if only because of age, experience and injuries.

So how will this year's team do? Let's hope that the new guys, the older guys, the injured guys, the guys on IR, the guys who played half a season, manage somehow to put together something we can be proud of. There's good reason to believe they will.

 

[Metaphors]

If I read it correctly, the only course for the Colts is to cut him before the new NFL year and avoid a $26 million bonus or pay the bonus and be hamstrung because his dead cap number would be $38 million if they traded him since they can't trade him before then......If he retired, it would save the Colts a lot of agita. IMNSHO, Archie's better move would have been to say, "of course Peyton and Andrew Luck can coexist" knowing it would never happen from a financial (cap) point of view....

Manning would have to restructure his deal to make a trade work and there is absolutely no motivation for him to do so. Why would Manning want to help a trade that robs his new team of draft picks to help him win? I anticipate Manning is either cut (likely) or plays out next year in Indy (unlikely).

His new destination is interesting. You would assume that the only situations that work would be teams that believe they are a QB away from winning a title and don't have a QB of the future already in the pipeline. Manning also hasn't distinguished himself in adverse conditions. Miami seems like the best fit but a darkhorse team IMO is KC. The AFC West sucks, they seem to have some good young receiving targets and a solid running game (when healthy) and their defense has shown flashes. SF (if Smith flames out in the playoffs) and Washington (if money is an issue) would be in play as well. If the San-grenade blows up over the next 4 games and Rex/Tanny start feeling some heat, the Jets could make a panic move (see Favre, Brett).

 

[Zeus]

Manning would have to restructure his deal to make a trade work and there is absolutely no motivation for him to do so. Why would Manning want to help a trade that robs his new team of draft picks to help him win? I anticipate Manning is either cut (likely) or plays out next year in Indy (unlikely).

His new destination is interesting. You would assume that the only situations that work would be teams that believe they are a QB away from winning a title and don't have a QB of the future already in the pipeline. Manning also hasn't distinguished himself in adverse conditions. Miami seems like the best fit but a darkhorse team IMO is KC. The AFC West sucks, they seem to have some good young receiving targets and a solid running game (when healthy) and their defense has shown flashes. SF (if Smith flames out in the playoffs) and Washington (if money is an issue) would be in play as well. If the San-grenade blows up over the next 4 games and Rex/Tanny start feeling some heat, the Jets could make a panic move (see Favre, Brett).

That's right - Manning is untradeable unless he renegotiates the contract. Manning either gets $28 million guaranteed from the Colts or he becomes an unrestricted free agent. There's no reason for him to facilitate a trade which would (as you point out) cost his new team draft picks. More importantly, it would take the choice of where to play away from Manning himself. Why would he let the Colts decide where he goes?

I agree with Ken's original point - Manning is likely done as a Colt. I believe he will retire rather than trying to break in a new offense. (I heard someone on the NFL Network say that Manning has only played in three offensive systems - high school, Tennessee and the Colts).

 

[Zeus]

This line of thought irritates me to no end. Every fanbase of a winning team is like that. Should we be satisfied by just winning the division every year? This team, the way it's built, should be able to at the very least be among the final 4 clubs competing for a SuperBowl. If you think winning the division and getting eliminated in the first round of the postseason is enough, and something we should be grateful for, you have a really weird mindset as a fan.

If, in 15 years, we have a middling team without a HOF coach and QB, I guarantee you winning 13 games and going to the playoffs would get everybody very excited. However, that's not the situation we are in. You can only "enjoy" a team if the results they achieve at least correspond to the expectations you had. For a fanbase like the Jets, losing in the AFC title game twice in a row, is an enormou achievment, while we'd look at it as two wasted opportunities. That's just the way it is, we shouldn't be grateful for merely having an above average team that doesn't compete for a title when the marbles are on the table. Some fans look at how the team is playing this season and they worry that they are repeating many of the same mistakes that prevented them from challenging for a Lombardi in recent years. That's where the concern lies.

To each his own. The team has had 11 consecutive winning seasons and has generally been regarded as one of the top teams in football over that time period. No one else has come close to sustaining this level of success since the advent of free agency and the salary cap.

I'm going to enjoy it while it lasts because it's rare and there's no way that it lasts forever. This is my 40th year as a season ticker holder - I'm grateful for the success we fans have been priviliged to witness and enjoy during the Belichick/Brady era.

 

[Deus Irae]

bad teams strive to be .500
.500 teams strive for the playoffs
playoff teams strive for the Super Bowl


It's not about being spoiled, it's about the bar, understandably, being raised.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

bad teams strive to be .500
.500 teams strive for the playoffs
playoff teams strive for the Super Bowl


It's not about being spoiled, it's about the bar, understandably, being raised.

There's raising the bar, and then there's the Bonfire of the GDTs.

 

[Deus Irae]

There's raising the bar, and then there's the Bonfire of the GDTs.

I'm pretty sure that expecting a team that's gone

11-5
10-6
14-2
9-3 (so far)

to find a way to win a playoff game, and to field a defensive backfield that's better than what you could find at the local YMCA, is something that most people in most fan bases would find not just acceptable, but appropriate.

 

[jmt57]

Here is a little more on the Manning-to-Redskins speculation, from the perspective of a Redskins beat writer. I'm guessing this may be currently be the biggest topic on their sports talk radio stations.

Chris Mortensen: Redskins an "obvious" possibility for Peyton Manning - DC Sports Bog - The Washington Post

“Ok, remember, we said that there’s still a big question mark of health,” Mortensen said.k “That’s something that nobody can speak to at this point. But if there’s a reasonable assurance that Peyton’s gonna be healthy, then who’s not gonna line up? The Washington Redskins are one obvious team. That’s unquestioned.

“You know, the Miami Dolphins would be another obvious team. Let’s see how the Jets finish and Mark Sanchez finishes down the stretch. I think Sanchez has a tendency to play very well late in seasons. But if for some reason, he really flops, then am I ruling out the Jets? The answer’s no. But I wouldn’t emphasize them. The Redskins would seem to be a clear-cut team, but it is speculative. Everybody’s mentioned how speculative it is, because of the uncertainty of Peyton’s health. But I do not believe that Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck will be on the same roster next year.”

Mike Florio on Peyton Manning and Kyle Shanahan - DC Sports Bog - The Washington Post

“And I’m looking at the scenarios, I’m not looking at sort of the obvious places, except for Washington, I understand that,” Patrick said. “But then I’ve got to factor in Jerry Jones somewhere in here, and then New Orleans I know with Drew Brees and contract talks, so I don’t think you can rule out crazy scenarios here.”

“No you can’t,” Florio agreed. “But I think Peyton’s gonna want a team that pays him a ton of money and that has the pieces in place for him to be successful. And I don’t know that he’d want to go to Washington, because look at what’s in place there with Mike Shanahan and Kyle Shanahan. Kyle wants to run that offense like a little kid with a joystick on the sideline. He wants the quarterback to just do whatever Kyle Shanahan wants. I think Kyle Shanahan’s younger than Peyton Manning, so I don’t think that’s gonna go over well if Peyton and Kyle Shanahan are trying to co-exist.”

Please, someone find me a radio interview covering how Peyton Manning would feel about throwing to Jabar Gaffney, the recent Redskins suspensions, and the team’s pending practice bubble.

 

[ausbacker]

The Kerrigan-Solder direct comparison is an interesting one ken. I'd think protecting Tom Brady (given his importance to the Patriots) would be the most important issue to address on yearly basis.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'm pretty sure that expecting a team that's gone yada yada yada

That's not what I was talking about.

 

[Prefect]

An alternative scenario for the Colts could be keeping Manning, then trading out of the #1 pick (or just drafting the top non-QB prospect). This would involve them being sure of him being healthy enough to play for another 3-4 years. The rookie payscale should make it possible to trade out of the #1 pick, and there certainly are enough teams willing to trade up for Luck.