When is the last time the playoffs played out like you thought?

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

After having a rather heated discussion yesterday with my father, in which we both conceded that the Patriots are complete toast come playoff time, it dawned on me that I know absolutely nothing. Although I watch the NFL religiously with the Sunday Ticket, check PFT about 30 times daily, and am borderline obsessed with the Patriots, I am just going to admit that I have no idea how everything will play out. That said, I am feeling good about the Patriots chances of winning it all this year for only one reason, and that's because everyone is writing them off, and they are flying under the radar for the first time in about ten years.

I'm sure most of us had Mark Sanchez beating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the road last year, right? And we had the Packers winning their last five games to sneak into the playoffs and then dominating the competition? How about the Saints beating the Colts the year before, or the Arizona Cardinals, after losing to Matt Cassel by 50 points making it to the SB? Of course, we all had the Giants upsetting the 18-0 Pats in '07, we knew the '06 Colts, with one of the worst defenses in the league, would suddenly put the clamps down and Peyton Manning would win a Super Bowl with 3 TDs and 7 INTs in the playoffs. And that year, of course, we knew that our #1 ranked defense would surrender 32 second half points to the Colts and our Reche Caldwell offense would score 35 and lose...we predicted that, right?

There seems to be only one common theme in the NFL, and that is that the most understimated units, whether on offense or defense, seem to suddenly turn it around and surprise all of the pundits, and the most predictably great units seem to falter under pressure. I'm not saying that I don't wish we had a great defense, but I'm saying that let's prepare to be surprised in the postseason. Last year we had one of the best Super Bowl contenders in recent memory "on paper" but where did that get us when the actual game was played?

I like the Pats chances. I don't know how they will do it, but I love that they are now known as "playoff chokers" with a terrible defense and that Brady is no longer a big game quarterback. For the first time in a long time, it almost seems like this team has nothing to lose, since no one has them winning the Super Bowl, and very few have them winning the AFC. They will play better when the playoffs come around and every expert out there has them surrendering 45 points in their predictions.

 

[randomk1]

Well...after we got our arses kicked and the Packers raped the Falcons i picked both of them to make the SB and GB win it.

Does that count?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Well...after we got our arses kicked and the Packers raped the Falcons i picked both of them to make the SB and GB win it.

Does that count?

Did you have the 14-2 Patriots and 13-3 Falcons getting smoked on their homefield?

 

[sbpatfan]

There is an Octopus that knows, but I'm pretty sure he died.

 

[robbomango]

After having a rather heated discussion yesterday with my father, in which we both conceded that the Patriots are complete toast come playoff time, it dawned on me that I know absolutely nothing. Although I watch the NFL religiously with the Sunday Ticket, check PFT about 30 times daily, and am borderline obsessed with the Patriots, I am just going to admit that I have no idea how everything will play out. That said, I am feeling good about the Patriots chances of winning it all this year for only one reason, and that's because everyone is writing them off, and they are flying under the radar for the first time in about ten years.

I'm sure most of us had Mark Sanchez beating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the road last year, right? And we had the Packers winning their last five games to sneak into the playoffs and then dominating the competition? How about the Saints beating the Colts the year before, or the Arizona Cardinals, after losing to Matt Cassel by 50 points making it to the SB? Of course, we all had the Giants upsetting the 18-0 Pats in '07, we knew the '06 Colts, with one of the worst defenses in the league, would suddenly put the clamps down and Peyton Manning would win a Super Bowl with 3 TDs and 7 INTs in the playoffs. And that year, of course, we knew that our #1 ranked defense would surrender 32 second half points to the Colts and our Reche Caldwell offense would score 35 and lose...we predicted that, right?

There seems to be only one common theme in the NFL, and that is that the most understimated units, whether on offense or defense, seem to suddenly turn it around and surprise all of the pundits, and the most predictably great units seem to falter under pressure. I'm not saying that I don't wish we had a great defense, but I'm saying that let's prepare to be surprised in the postseason. Last year we had one of the best Super Bowl contenders in recent memory "on paper" but where did that get us when the actual game was played?

I like the Pats chances. I don't know how they will do it, but I love that they are now known as "playoff chokers" with a terrible defense and that Brady is no longer a big game quarterback. For the first time in a long time, it almost seems like this team has nothing to lose, since no one has them winning the Super Bowl, and very few have them winning the AFC. They will play better when the playoffs come around and every expert out there has them surrendering 45 points in their predictions.

lmao, funny post. I'm dead wrong every time.

 

[757PatsFan]

There is an Octopus that knows, but I'm pretty sure he died.

hahaha but i think it only knew about soccer games

 

[757PatsFan]

After having a rather heated discussion yesterday with my father, in which we both conceded that the Patriots are complete toast come playoff time, it dawned on me that I know absolutely nothing. Although I watch the NFL religiously with the Sunday Ticket, check PFT about 30 times daily, and am borderline obsessed with the Patriots, I am just going to admit that I have no idea how everything will play out. That said, I am feeling good about the Patriots chances of winning it all this year for only one reason, and that's because everyone is writing them off, and they are flying under the radar for the first time in about ten years.

I'm sure most of us had Mark Sanchez beating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the road last year, right? And we had the Packers winning their last five games to sneak into the playoffs and then dominating the competition? How about the Saints beating the Colts the year before, or the Arizona Cardinals, after losing to Matt Cassel by 50 points making it to the SB? Of course, we all had the Giants upsetting the 18-0 Pats in '07, we knew the '06 Colts, with one of the worst defenses in the league, would suddenly put the clamps down and Peyton Manning would win a Super Bowl with 3 TDs and 7 INTs in the playoffs. And that year, of course, we knew that our #1 ranked defense would surrender 32 second half points to the Colts and our Reche Caldwell offense would score 35 and lose...we predicted that, right?

There seems to be only one common theme in the NFL, and that is that the most understimated units, whether on offense or defense, seem to suddenly turn it around and surprise all of the pundits, and the most predictably great units seem to falter under pressure. I'm not saying that I don't wish we had a great defense, but I'm saying that let's prepare to be surprised in the postseason. Last year we had one of the best Super Bowl contenders in recent memory "on paper" but where did that get us when the actual game was played?

I like the Pats chances. I don't know how they will do it, but I love that they are now known as "playoff chokers" with a terrible defense and that Brady is no longer a big game quarterback. For the first time in a long time, it almost seems like this team has nothing to lose, since no one has them winning the Super Bowl, and very few have them winning the AFC. They will play better when the playoffs come around and every expert out there has them surrendering 45 points in their predictions.

Excellent post...this is exactly why I am feeling better this year than the last few because it is impossible to know exactly what will happen

 

[Uncle Rico]

Excellent post...this is exactly why I am feeling better this year than the last few because it is impossible to know exactly what will happen

I guess I'd feel better if our best hope wasn't the playing out of random events but, heck, I'll go with it.

Maybe Clausewitz was right with his whole Friction of War thing.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Did you have the 14-2 Patriots and 13-3 Falcons getting smoked on their homefield?

Regular season records are meaningless come game time. If people looked at the reasons a team won the games they won (especially the close ones) and the reason they lost the games they lost (even more important) those shocking upsets would be alot less shocking. The Patriots losing was a surprise last season but if you watched the way the packers were playing and the way the Falcons lost their games against Pittsburgh and Philly it wouldn't be a shock at all.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Regular season records are meaningless come game time. If people looked at the reasons a team won the games they won (especially the close ones) and the reason they lost the games they lost (even more important) those shocking upsets would be alot less shocking. The Patriots losing was a surprise last season but if you watched the way the packers were playing and the way the Falcons lost their games against Pittsburgh and Philly it wouldn't be a shock at all.

I had the Packers beating the Falcons as well, but I didn't expect a 13-3 team to get decapitated on their homefield. You can look back with hindsight, because we know that if a team loses a game, it will likely be the result of..., but usually the team with a lesser record has larger areas of deficiency and are more likely to fail.

 

[robbomango]

How bout the Seahags 7-9 getting a playoff birth with homefield advantage and beating the Saints, lol.

 

[jmt57]

Similarly, this throws a bit of a damper on the 'finishing strong' theory:

Best regular season records in the final 4 games since 2006:
SD 19-1, NE 18-2, Balt 15-5, Indy 15-5, Phil 15-5
One SuperBowl win among them.​

 

[brdmaverick]

To help the original poster's argument, last year in the divisional round all four games were EXACT rematches from the regular season. I include EXACT to indicate the same location (or home team).

In all four games (noted below) the team that won the regular season exact rematch, LOST the playoff rematch.

Jets at Patriots
Ravens at Steelers
Seahawks at Bears
Packers at Falcons

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

The 2004 playoffs were pretty much exactly like I expected. #1 vs. #2 in both conference finals, we smack the Steelers, then beat McNabb

Since then, not so much.

2004

 

[BradyFTW!]

The 2009 and 2010 playoffs, with the exception of the Pats losing their first game at home, both had fairly predictable Super Bowl matchups and winners, IMO.

Prior to that, 2004. Almost 2007 as well, right up until the last few minutes.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The 2009 and 2010 playoffs, with the exception of the Pats losing their first game at home, both had fairly predictable Super Bowl matchups and winners, IMO.

Prior to that, 2004. Almost 2007 as well, right up until the last few minutes.

In 2007, the Giants went on the road and pulled off three huge upsets. No one expected them to come out of the NFC. Everyone thought the Pats would need to get past Indy and either Dallas or Green Bay, which seemed to be a very tough road.

 

[brdmaverick]

In 2007, the Giants went on the road and pulled off three huge upsets. No one expected them to come out of the NFC. Everyone thought the Pats would need to get past Indy and either Dallas or Green Bay, which seemed to be a very tough road.

agreed, saying the Giants were the expected NFC champs is a tough sell

In fact, as a football fan in general I feel the NFL was deprived of a Pats/Colts rematch in the AFC Championship Game. After all, the regular season game was a classic, with the Pats (8-0) AND Colts (7-0) both being undefeated going into it.

 

[brdmaverick]

It certainly has been unpredictable. After all, we've seen two 6 seeds (Pitt, GB) and one 5 seed (NYG) win the Super Bowl. Even stranger, Pitt (6 seed) entered the Super Bowl as a favorite over SEA (1 seed). I understand it, but it's still odd.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

2004 was the last time I felt 100% confident about each playoff game and the SB. No doubt in my mind that year.

2007 I was not 100% confident about the every playoff game or the SB but some of that was a little bit to do with the whole undefeated thing so I have to go with 2004.

I think we have an excellent chance at the SB this year but I'm not 100% confident that's for sure, I have no idea what to expect beyond some exciting games- there've been some real killers so far this year lol.

We'll either be screaming and cheering or throwing stuff, there'll be no in between anymore:rocker:

 

[PatsGirl2011]

2004 was the last time for me too. I predicted Eagles vs Pats, although, I also thought that matchup would occur one year earlier instead of Carolina.