Gostkowski: The new AV?

[VJCPatriot]

I think the kid has done a pretty good job considering it was his rookie year. Here are his season totals for 2006:

Kicks Percentage
20/26 76.9%

Xpts Percentage
43/44 97.7%

20-29
10/11

30-39
7/10

40-49
2/4

50+
1/1

Gostkowski also booms the kickoffs a lot better than AV did. So there you have it a 75%+ FG accuracy and great kickoffs in a young rookie kicker for a much low salary. A 4th round pick well spent, don't you think?

Oh and for comparison's sake I will list Adam's first season stats in 1996. Percentages are bolded for FG and Xpts respectively.
G 1-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Tot Lg Blk Pct XP XPG Pct
16 1-1 9-10 8-8 8-14 1-2 27-35 50 1 77.1 39-42 39 92.9

 

[zippo59]

What made AV special wasn't his overall kicking percentage but his kicking percentage late in big games. That's what people want to see Gostkowski do before they decide how good he is.

 

[Fogbuster]

He's a rookie. Let him be a rookie first, then let him become the "Ghost", create an record that eclipses all before him.

 

[DaBruinz]

What made AV special wasn't his overall kicking percentage but his kicking percentage late in big games. That's what people want to see Gostkowski do before they decide how good he is.

How long did it take Vinatieri to start kicking all of those clutch game winning kicks?

 

[VJCPatriot]

Well Gost would need to be in a pressure kick situation opportunity before we know what he's really made off. I think the Pats have consciously tried to make most of his kicks doable or in not too high pressure situations.

He has had a pretty good rookie season though you have to admit. Why spend 3M plus on a kicker when you can draft a rookie that can do just about the same job?

 

[Denism]

What made AV special wasn't his overall kicking percentage but his kicking percentage late in big games. That's what people want to see Gostkowski do before they decide how good he is.

Good point Z,

You always felt Comfortable with AV when he was taking a Game Winning F/G, you just knew it was going through...

Ghost did have a Good Rookie season & the Confidence in him will come aswell, it takes time thats all (i mean in game winning situations),

So from now on its a case of AV Who??? Lets Go Ghost:rocker: :rocker:

 

[Alk]

How long did it take Vinatieri to start kicking all of those clutch game winning kicks?

EXACTLY!! I saw first hand at Arrowhead that he was not a clutch kicker until about 5 years ago.

 

[emoney_33]

Some people will never be satisfied with Gost though, at least not for a long long time. AV made what was probably the greatest kick ever. If Gost ever misses an extremely hard kick (snow, distance etc..), the AV rumblings will begin. Even though AV probably wouldn't have made that kick twice and probably wouldn't make it today if given the opportunity.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

Some people will never be satisfied with Gost though, at least not for a long long time. AV made what was probably the greatest kick ever. If Gost ever misses an extremely hard kick (snow, distance etc..), the AV rumblings will begin. Even though AV probably wouldn't have made that kick twice and probably wouldn't make it today if given the opportunity.

AV might be the first kicker elected to the HOF based on making the biggest kicks in NFL history. I'm OK with that. Good for Adam. With the game on the line, there is no other kicker I would rather see lining it up.

Gostkowski however, might have some similar personality triats that Adam had. There is no doubt that Gost is an NFL caliber kicker. I think the Vets like the kid and are finding that he doesn't lose his cool in the heat of battle...kind of like AV. But the test of a good kicker comes when there is 3 seconds left in the game and you have a chance to knock it through.....I think he is going to be asked to do just that very soon and if he can succeed in the playoffs this year, he might be a real good kicker. But he has not been asked to win the game for us this year and as we have seen, BB has not wanted to put the kid in there yet either.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

I think it's true that Gost has not kicked in some situations this year in which BB would have let a vet kick. He was more likely to go for it on 4th down or punt this year. Part of that had to do with the fact that the Patriots were leading in more games than they were in AV's rookie year. But part of it also surely looked to me to relate to the coach's confidence in his kicker this year.

I also think the statistical comparison between Gost and AV tells a compelling story, but it's not the point the original poster is trying to make. AV kicked 16 field goals over 40 yards in his rookie year. Gost kicked 5. No wonder AV's percentage wasn't quite as good. I would bet that Gost has kicked far fewer over 40s than anyone else in the league who played a full season, or darned near it.

Gost missed 4 field goals under 39 yards. AV missed 1. They both had a near equal number of attempts.

When you have such a disparity in how far the players are kicking from and how many attempts they've had, a comparison of percentages is not accurate. I'd be interested to see the average distance of their made field goals as rookies, as well as missed. I would be willing to bet that AV's average made field goal was much longer, as was his average missed field goal.

In any event, the statistics are not a big deal to me. I can tell what I'm looking at on the screen. The bottom line to me is that he's missed two biggies in the last two weeks. The Jags miss turned the game around. The Tennessee miss was big too. A 49-yarder is not a gimme on the road. But he's got to make that one next time or we may be going home. More fundamentally, I just don't like the way he kicks. There's too much movement on the ball, or, worse, too much thinking involved. Two of his misses have been horrible pushes to the right, probably because he likes to start the ball toward the right upright and hook it in, but sometimes it just doesn't hook. I don't care for a kicker like that. I like a guy who bangs it straight toward the uprights. Too many moving parts on Gost's kicks.

I'm just not a believer yet. I haven't been all year. I have significant anxiety that I will be saying, "I knew it" sometime in the next couple of weeks. We haven't left a game -- let alone a significant game -- at the field goal stripe yet in many years. I'm not so sure this trend is going to continue.

 

[patsfan55]

funny moment last week
when ghost helped tackle pacman jones, my friend goes "hey the ghost gobbled up pacman"

 

[zippo59]

As much as people dismissed it when Ken Walter went on IR, I think the change at holder has affected his accuracy.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

AV might be the first kicker elected to the HOF based on making the biggest kicks in NFL history. I'm OK with that. Good for Adam. With the game on the line, there is no other kicker I would rather see lining it up.

AV would be the second, Jan Stanerud was the first.

funny moment last week
when ghost helped tackle pacman jones, my friend goes "hey the ghost gobbled up pacman"

 

[fillylabinga]

...The bottom line to me is that he's missed two biggies in the last two weeks. The Jags miss turned the game around. The Tennessee miss was big too. A 49-yarder is not a gimme on the road. But he's got to make that one next time or we may be going home. More fundamentally, I just don't like the way he kicks. There's too much movement on the ball, or, worse, too much thinking involved. Two of his misses have been horrible pushes to the right, probably because he likes to start the ball toward the right upright and hook it in, but sometimes it just doesn't hook. I don't care for a kicker like that. I like a guy who bangs it straight toward the uprights. Too many moving parts on Gost's kicks.

I agree with pretty much everything in this post--Gost seems a little shaky and did not have the rookie year that AV did.

The only thing I would argue is that field goals are not just about the kicker and I think his struggles the past 2 weeks have a lot to do with Cassel holding for the first time. There was one in particular (that was good) where Cassel had the laces practically sideways causing a ton of movement.

Separately, the other thing that made AV great (other than the clutchness) was that he was so good kicking in bad conditions. The Oakland playoff game is the most obvious example, but it always seemed like he was nailing kicks in the rain and cold while the opposing kicker was missing.

Kicking in less than ideal conditions is something that seems like it might be a problem for Gost--he was kicking on some questionable surfaces the past 2 weeks and had trouble at the pre-turf Foxboro. Hopefully, this is something that he will improve with practice and not something inherent in his kicking motion.