Pats 9pt FAVORITES ???

[tombonneau]

Just went to check out playoff lines, and was SHOCKED to see Pats were 9 pt favorites. Was expecting a 4-5pt line with the thought that this would be a very close 24-21 type game. I'll certainly be telling my gambling friends to be laying heavy on NYJ.

Of course, on the plus side, the fact that Vegas has this set at -9 has me feeling much much better about a Pats win.

 

[DaBruinz]

Just went to check out playoff lines, and was SHOCKED to see Pats were 9 pt favorites. Was expecting a 4-5pt line with the thought that this would be a very close 24-21 type game. I'll certainly be telling my gambling friends to be laying heavy on NYJ.

Of course, on the plus side, the fact that Vegas has this set at -9 has me feeling much much better about a Pats win.

The Pats being 9 point favorites and people laying "heavy" on the Jets is exactly what the guys in Vegas want. Why? Because they are laying heavy odds that the Patriots DO cover.

 

[tombonneau]

The Pats being 9 point favorites and people laying "heavy" on the Jets is exactly what the guys in Vegas want. Why? Because they are laying heavy odds that the Patriots DO cover.

I know there are competing views, but my understanding is that the business model of Vegas is to get even action on both sides of the line and then clean up on the juice. The last thing Vegas wants to do is "lure" money towards one team then get 80% action on said team only to watch it cover. Hence, lines shift to balance the books.

Remember, Vegas lines aren't truly about what they think a team will win by, but rather what they think the public thinks a team will win by.

Either way, I was surprised to see the line so high.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I'm not suprised at all. They played their best game against us the last meeting and won. While we played a below average game with poor tackling and a fluke play. 27-12 and I'm being nice.

 

[bobgeorge]

I think the line will come down, nine is way too high.

Bob G

 

[Kasmir]

I think the line will come down, nine is way too high.

Bob G

Nine would be six at a neutral field and three at their place. Sounds about right, except that our home field disadvantage should reverse the numbers Red Sox fans are lousy football fans

 

[MrClutch]

Some people say there's such a thing as a trap line, but others say there's no such thing, all they want is money on both sides.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I know there are competing views, but my understanding is that the business model of Vegas is to get even action on both sides of the line and then clean up on the juice. The last thing Vegas wants to do is "lure" money towards one team then get 80% action on said team only to watch it cover. Hence, lines shift to balance the books.

Remember, Vegas lines aren't truly about what they think a team will win by, but rather what they think the public thinks a team will win by.

Either way, I was surprised to see the line so high.

I am not sure on this, however, isn't the opening Vegas lines where their models pretty much think the game will be? They then adjust it from there as the action comes in/ bettor's expectations are set? A quick check of a power ranking shows the Patriots 6 points better then the jets. Add the 3 point home field advantage and there you have about 9 points. According to the ranking, the other opening lines would be Indy about 8.5 point favorites, Seattle -1 and Philly -6. I don't know if those were the opening lines for any of those games though. The sports book models might be different or I might be totally wrong. I'll tell you this, I totally expect the Patriots to win but I wouldn't touch the Pats at -9 if I was in Vegas. I'd take Philly and the -6 before anything. The Giants have so many problems, I think they'll fold if they fall into any sort of deficit and may juts fold as the game wears on anyway. I think Indy/KC is too volatile to try and predict. Dallas/Seattle is a game of 2 teams that you have no measure of certainty as to what kind of teams will be on the field this Sunday. If pressed I would take Dallas and the point.........

 

[Fogbuster]

I know there are competing views, but my understanding is that the business model of Vegas is to get even action on both sides of the line and then clean up on the juice. The last thing Vegas wants to do is "lure" money towards one team then get 80% action on said team only to watch it cover. Hence, lines shift to balance the books.

Remember, Vegas lines aren't truly about what they think a team will win by, but rather what they think the public thinks a team will win by.

Either way, I was surprised to see the line so high.

BINGO! Yeah that, etc. Vegas is about the action. They want to draw as many people into the action as they can. Thus, they make it look like the Pats are heavy favorites so a lot of people will take the points.

As usual, there are too many variables to make a sure prediction, but I will say that if the Pats start this game as if they mean business, the Jets will quickly realize that the last game was a fluke. How the Pats start this game will be very important in deciding who owns the line of scrimmage, and thus the game.

The trenches, it is always won in the trenches.


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[denverpatsfan]

The line IS way too high. That's what has me worried about this game believe it or not...

 

[lutontown_fc]

The line IS way too high. That's what has me worried about this game believe it or not...

You think the Vegas 'line' on this game can affect its outcome in some way?

Seriously?

NM

 

[Brownfan80]

I don't know much about lines or why vegas sets them higher/lower.... but nine does seem high to me.

 

[VJCPatriot]

The line is all a matter of perception. Same thing as the power rankings. Both are essentially meaningless unless people give them credibility. I know BB's attitude. And he is not about to let this team slack off or fall into the trap of thinking this game against the Jets is going to be easy because of some stupid oddmaker's point line.

One game at a time. Win or go home. That's what the Pats need to keep in mind. We MUST beat the Jets!!

 

[Fogbuster]

The line IS way too high. That's what has me worried about this game believe it or not...

It's playoff time. I think BB and the SB vets know how to keep things in perspective. The gambling line is for gamblers; not for the players.


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[denverpatsfan]

I don't think the players care about the line. It's just that maybe Vegas knows something we don't know about the game. Yes I know they are setting the line so the "Action" comes in with a 50/50 split, but wouldn't there be money spent on the Jets even if the line was 3-6 points?? With all the media hype, esp. in NY and the fact that the Jets just beat the Pats, you would think they would have set the line lower. When a line doesn't make sense to me I get paranoid.

Just my 2-cents.

 

[Fogbuster]

I don't think the players care about the line. It's just that maybe Vegas knows something we don't know about the game. Yes I know they are setting the line so the "Action" comes in with a 50/50 split, but wouldn't there be money spent on the Jets even if the line was 3-6 points?? With all the media hype, esp. in NY and the fact that the Jets just beat the Pats, you would think they would have set the line lower. When a line doesn't make sense to me I get paranoid.

Just my 2-cents.

Paranoia is a bad thing. We should always be full of confidence, ready to take on the world!!

So, if the book-makers are putting the Pats out at 9 point favorites, what's the concern?? The only concern I would have is the "over-confidence" monkey. Yet you say you don't think the guys will buy that hype. I don't get it.


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[PatsFanSince74]

You think the Vegas 'line' on this game can affect its outcome in some way?

Seriously?

NM

I believe that BB has used the line very effectively as motivation in the past. So, in a technical sense, the answer is clearly, No. But intangibly? in the locker room? Yes.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

the spread's dropped from 9.5 to 8.5 as of this AM. Tradesports (not a perfect source by any means, but certainly useful) isn't buying the spread (Bid/Offer 45/46) while it has the other three games in the 52/53 range. I'd venture a guess that the line will go down another point by Friday.

 

[Water Boy]

Just went to check out playoff lines, and was SHOCKED to see Pats were 9 pt favorites. Was expecting a 4-5pt line with the thought that this would be a very close 24-21 type game. I'll certainly be telling my gambling friends to be laying heavy on NYJ.

Of course, on the plus side, the fact that Vegas has this set at -9 has me feeling much much better about a Pats win.

According to Sportsbook.com, so far, over 80% of the money wagered in this game on the Jets.

If I'm not mistaken, coming into week 17 of the regular season, underdogs have covered approximately 58% of the time and a vast majority of the underdogs who covered the spread won outright. Looking at this game objectively, given the season trend, its hard not to take the Jets and the points.

 

[mgteich]

In the end, the Vegas books will be almost exactly matched. If a particular book has too heavy money on one team or the other, they simply lay the money off by placing a bet with another book and paying the vig.

It is possible that a book could have an initial crazy line to bring in business. The money would need to be layed off. The cost would just be a marketing cost.

Sports books are NOT gamblers any more that the dealer at their poker tables.

Some people say there's such a thing as a trap line, but others say there's no such thing, all they want is money on both sides.