Who Will Win this Week and Why?

[PatsDeb]

As an attempt to pass the agonizingly slow time, who do you predict will will this week and why? These are my 'pundit predictions" which are probably based more on fantasy than fact (except for my Pats prediction, of course!):

1. Pats vs. Jets - Pats. Pats come out with their determined, WE ARE NOT LOSING THIS GAME, playoff attitude and pretty much control the game from start to finish. Offense goes on several long drives mixing in the pass and their great running game while the defense, with the return of Wilfork in the middle, is able to stifle the Jets offense.

2. Indy vs. KC - KC. KC follows the formula of other teams who have beat the Colts and gives the ball to Larry Johnson 40 times, thus keeping Manning & his powerful offense off the field for most of the game. When Manning does get on the field, he panics into some bad throws, and old friend Ty Law intercepts him at least once.

3. Seattle vs. Dallas. Seattle. Despite the fact that Seattle is down to back-ups of back-ups in the secondary, they compensate by really going after Romo, who fumbles the game away on several occassions. TO has a terrible day, dropping several passes, while, much to the chagrin of Pats fans everywhere, Deion Branch recovers his playoff attitude, having a great day and making the first-round pick the Pats got for him less valuable.

4. Eagles vs. Giants. Eagles. After one week of good play the Giants, particularly Eli Manning, revert to form when the Eagles D is able to contain Tiki Barber. Tom Coughlin again blames Manning in his post-game press conference, and coins a new term - "the Manning Family Play-off Curse."

What say you?

 

[PatsDeb]

I see the Cowboys beating the Seahawks. Romo is vastly over rated, IMO, and if he falters early, I would not be surprised to see Bledsoe back in the game, and if so, he has something to prove.

This would be interesting, but what happens when Bledsoe refuses to come off the bench, telling Parcells, "You made your bed with that kid, you lie in it!!"

 

[The_Dragon]

Long time lurker, first time poster. ;-) Love reading the various posts, especially the series by series analysis. Have these been discontinued?

Pats v Jets - Pats. Have to say that as a fan but logically it points to a Pats win. I think it will be close right till the end but I think our D is more likely to make a play to pull out a win. The loss at home to the Jets in the regular season will be a huge motivating factor as well.

The Jets will probably try and stack the box against the run again early on but I feel that our offense is in a lot better place than it was when we last lost to the Jets, specifically in the passing game(Thomas, Gaffney etc, all more familiar and comfortable with the system). Andre Dyson being out helps a lot as well.

Pats win.

Colts v Chiefs - For all the problems the Colts have in stopping the run I still expect them to win and I expect Manning to play well. I can see a 2 TD win for the Colts.

As an aside I would imagine that stopping the run is an one of the easier problem to remedy as oppossed, to say, poor pass defense. I mean that in the sense that it is easier to teach some to tackle than it is to get someone to cover a receiver - would I be naive in saying this?

Eagles v Giants - Dangerous game for the Eagles as not much is expected of the Giants I feel. However if the Eagles can take away the Giants running game - and they did in both regular season games - then I don't believe Manning is, on current form, capable of winning the game for the Giants. Eagles win.

Hawks v Cowboys - I find this one hard to call. Both teams have problems and yet both also have a lot of potential upside. Dallas' D is a lot better than it has shown in recent weeks IMO and Seattle's offense is capable of being explosive if they can jel. If I had to pick I'd take the Cowboys as they have shown more form in patches throughout the season.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Long time lurker, first time poster. ;-) Love reading the various posts, especially the series by series analysis. Have these been discontinued?

Thank you. Only to the extent that Pats1 and I haven't been able to put the time in as we'd like - with people looking forward to the Jets and not showing any interest in Tennessee other than the anger over Rodney, I chose to let it slide this week.

Welcome aboard, nice to have you out of the bushes!

Pats v. Jets: BB goes back to the 4-3 and shuts down the passing attack while allowing some additional run yardage. Jets D is improving in the defensive scheme, but the Dillon/Maroney combination and improved passing attack are too much. Special Teams is a wash for this one. Pats.

Colts v. Chiefs: Herm handicaps the Chiefs, the run defense handicaps the Colts. LJ has a nice run, Peyton does his thing, the clincher will be Green's ability to be consistent in the passing game, Huard would be my choice over Green at this point, he hasn't been the same coming back from his brain fry. I think Herm is the more damaging handicap in the end. Colts.

Eagles v. Giants: Coughlin doesn't hold the reins on this runaway club. Manning meltdown, Garcia dissects the D. Eagles.

Seahawks v. Cowboys: Parcells gets a brief handle on his club using the playoff fever, enough to squeeze by a badly damaged Seattle club. Cowboys.

 

[The_Dragon]

Thank you. Only to the extent that Pats1 and I haven't been able to put the time in as we'd like - with people looking forward to the Jets and not showing any interest in Tennessee other than the anger over Rodney, I chose to let it slide this week.

Welcome aboard, nice to have you out of the bushes!

QUOTE]

Thanks Box_O_Rocks.

I can imagine that the analysis must be very time-consuming. Fascinating stuff though. Look forward to seeing more when ye get the chance.

 

[The_Dragon]

Pats v. Jets: BB goes back to the 4-3 and shuts down the passing attack while allowing some additional run yardage. Jets D is improving in the defensive scheme, but the Dillon/Maroney combination and improved passing attack are too much. Special Teams is a wash for this one. Pats.

Box_O_Rocks are you saying that switching to the 4-3 gives a better chance to shut down the passing attack? Is this because of the ability to rush the passer more with 4 line men rather than the 3 in the 3-4? I've often wondered about the various merits of the 4-3 as against the 3-4.

Would your suggestion about using the 4-3 mean we would see a game plan similiar to what the Pats did against the Bengals in the regular season?

 

[BelichickFan]

Yowzer, NEM, Bledsoe has NO CHANCE to play barring injury.

Pats win obviously.

Cowboys win because Settle sucks although it's always dangerous to pick against Seattle in Seattle.

Eagles win becuase the Giants suck. The Giants chance is if Tiki can dominate - nothing like a good running game to control a game.

I have to pick Indy. Obvisously LJ could dominate and Law vs. Manning is intriguing but KC just isn't that good so I'm picking Indy at home

Pats, Colts, Eagles, Cowboys.

 

[sieglo]

I had a dream last night about two of these games. I won't comment on the other two:

1) Pats vs. Jets: Pats win in a rout. 42-7.

2) Indy vs. KC. Shockingly, Indy wins in a low scoring defensive game. 8-3.

This is just what my dream told me.... Don't hold me responsible if it makes absolutely no rational sense.

 

[LloydBraun]

Pats- 28-10... NYJ get a late TD. 28 and 39 run it down their throats.

KC- 28-17..... Johnson and the run game totally destroy the Indy D. Peyton's post game comments about the D cause a stir.

Seattle- 35-17....... Dallas gets too caught up in the fact that the Seattle secondary is depleted. Romo throws 3 picks and is sacked 6 times.

Giants- 28-26..... Barber is the difference.

 

[SkiHound]

My prognositications, FWIW.

Pats over the Jets. Of course I'm a homer but I think the Pats are simply more talented. The Pats looked like they were on sleeping pills during their last match-up. The intangible of revenge is on the Pats side, they won't look past the Jets. Mangini and the Jets have really done a great job this year and I do expect them to keep it relatively close.

All of the other games are head scratchers.

I think the Colts score enough to beat the Chiefs.

I see Dallas as a team in disarray and the Seahawks move on to round two.

Eagles over the Giants. Andy Reid has done a great job getting the Eagles unified. Eli seems to have lost his confidence and I'm not sure the Giants are going to step it up to save their coach's job.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Dragon, you note in an aside that stopping the run is a "comparatively easy problem to fix," and I double dog disagree on that one.

It's not hard in theory, but in execution it can be maddening. Look at what happened to the Pats in 02. The same acclaimed minds ran that team as the 03 and 01 SB teams... but the run D simply never gelled. It wasn't that they didn't know what you have to do -- put a guy on the ground before he moves forward a bunch -- it's just that they couldn't do it.

Peyton can compensate for a lot of things, but ultimately that's the cardinal sin in football, not stopping the run. Running the ball means controlling the ball. When you pass it, 3 things can happen, and 2 of them are bad. When you run, provided you hold on to the ball, the only negative outcome is not picking up yardage. Against Indy, there are no negative outcomes.

That means Peyton off the field, the Colts D on the field, getting worse and worse as they wear down from long drives. By the end of the games, Peyton is still crazy efficient, but the Chiefs may be close to 100% efficient getting the ball in the end zone (if predictions come out correct.)

Of course, this is all out the window once they play the games... but unless something is very different from past weeks, the Colts might not see the divisional round.

Predictions:

CHIEFS 31, COLTS 28

PATS 27, JEST 10

SEATTLE 28, COWBOYS 24

PHILADELPHIA 35, GINTZ 13

PFnV

 

[PatsDeb]

As an attempt to pass the agonizingly slow time, who do you predict will will this week and why? These are my 'pundit predictions" which are probably based more on fantasy than fact (except for my Pats prediction, of course!):

1. Pats vs. Jets - Pats. Pats come out with their determined, WE ARE NOT LOSING THIS GAME, playoff attitude and pretty much control the game from start to finish. Offense goes on several long drives mixing in the pass and their great running game while the defense, with the return of Wilfork in the middle, is able to stifle the Jets offense.

2. Indy vs. KC - KC. KC follows the formula of other teams who have beat the Colts and gives the ball to Larry Johnson 40 times, thus keeping Manning & his powerful offense off the field for most of the game. When Manning does get on the field, he panics into some bad throws, and old friend Ty Law intercepts him at least once.

3. Seattle vs. Dallas. Seattle. Despite the fact that Seattle is down to back-ups of back-ups in the secondary, they compensate by really going after Romo, who fumbles the game away on several occassions. TO has a terrible day, dropping several passes, while, much to the chagrin of Pats fans everywhere, Deion Branch recovers his playoff attitude, having a great day and making the first-round pick the Pats got for him less valuable.

4. Eagles vs. Giants. Eagles. After one week of good play the Giants, particularly Eli Manning, revert to form when the Eagles D is able to contain Tiki Barber. Tom Coughlin again blames Manning in his post-game press conference, and coins a new term - "the Manning Family Play-off Curse."

What say you?

Wait, I forgot my post-game analysis:

1. BB is seen smiling and giving EM a hug at mid-field after the game.
2. Bill Polian is seen choking Herm Edwards in the tunnel immediately after KC's last kneel-down.
3. Bill Parcells' head explodes at the podium after the game.
4. Tom Coughlin is seen choking Eli Manning in the tunnel immediately after the Eagles' last kneel down.

 

[PatsFan37]

As an aside I would imagine that stopping the run is an one of the easier problem to remedy as oppossed, to say, poor pass defense. I mean that in the sense that it is easier to teach some to tackle than it is to get someone to cover a receiver - would I be naive in saying this?

Box and Pats1 absolutely do some of the best analysis of the game, including the professional sportswriters. It's great stuff.

Now for a strictly amateur viewpoint, informed by what I've read on this here forum -- you can't tackle if you can't shed a block and if you're not in position. IIRC, in the first part of 2003, the poor run defense was all about LBs being unable to shed blocks.

Partly that's about line play, tying up the big men so they can't get to the LBs and partly that's skill and strength in the LBs to get free to make the tackle. And partly it's about discipline, knowing who goes where, and reading the keys that tell a DL which way his man is going move.

In many ways, good run defense is good team defense and is trickier to teach than telling a CB to stay with his man and defend the ball. It's why CBs can be successful in their first year, safeties need a couple years, DLs need 2 or 3 years, and BB likes to bring in veterans at LB, though he's willing coach them up from the practice squad over a period of many years (see TBC).

BB's greatest strength as a coach is consistently delivering a stifling run defense while not giving up the ability to rush the passer.

 

[PatsDeb]

Box and Pats1 absolutely do some of the best analysis of the game, including the professional sportswriters. It's great stuff.

Now for a strictly amateur viewpoint, informed by what I've read on this here forum -- you can't tackle if you can't shed a block and if you're not in position. IIRC, in the first part of 2003, the poor run defense was all about LBs being unable to shed blocks.

Partly that's about line play, tying up the big men so they can't get to the LBs and partly that's skill and strength in the LBs to get free to make the tackle. And partly it's about discipline, knowing who goes where, and reading the keys that tell a DL which way his man is going move.

In many ways, good run defense is good team defense and is trickier to teach than telling a CB to stay with his man and defend the ball. It's why CBs can be successful in their first year, safeties need a couple years, DLs need 2 or 3 years, and BB likes to bring in veterans at LB, though he's willing coach them up from the practice squad over a period of many years (see TBC).

BB's greatest strength as a coach is consistently delivering a stifling run defense while not giving up the ability to rush the passer.

I agree about BB's strength on defense, but the one area that concerns me (on Sunday and going forward [hopefully]) is the area just beyond the line of scrimmage. The Pats D is very good at stopping the opponent at the line. Where we have been vulnerable is just beyond the line, in Tedy Bruschi's area. If the Jets (or others) are able to get a short pass over the line or get a runner past the D-line, they have been able to make some yards. How does BB cover up for this deficiency this week?

 

[The_Dragon]

Dragon, you note in an aside that stopping the run is a "comparatively easy problem to fix," and I double dog disagree on that one.

It's not hard in theory, but in execution it can be maddening. Look at what happened to the Pats in 02. The same acclaimed minds ran that team as the 03 and 01 SB teams... but the run D simply never gelled. It wasn't that they didn't know what you have to do -- put a guy on the ground before he moves forward a bunch -- it's just that they couldn't do it.

Peyton can compensate for a lot of things, but ultimately that's the cardinal sin in football, not stopping the run. Running the ball means controlling the ball. When you pass it, 3 things can happen, and 2 of them are bad. When you run, provided you hold on to the ball, the only negative outcome is not picking up yardage. Against Indy, there are no negative outcomes.

That means Peyton off the field, the Colts D on the field, getting worse and worse as they wear down from long drives. By the end of the games, Peyton is still crazy efficient, but the Chiefs may be close to 100% efficient getting the ball in the end zone (if predictions come out correct.)

Of course, this is all out the window once they play the games... but unless something is very different from past weeks, the Colts might not see the divisional round.

Predictions:

CHIEFS 31, COLTS 28

PATS 27, JEST 10

SEATTLE 28, COWBOYS 24

PHILADELPHIA 35, GINTZ 13

PFnV

Hey PFnV. Re: Stopping the run - I suppose that's an uninformed opinion that I have. I'm a recent enough convert to the NFL and am still catching up on the intricacies. It just seems to me that tackling someone is easier to teach than shadowing a WR.

But I hadn't thought of shedding the blocks as you mentioned and the other advantages, such as controlling the clock. I'm learning... ;-)

I brought this up to get people's opinions on it more than anything.

I often wonder about the merits of the 4-3 against the 3-4 for stopping the run etc. For example I can see why the Patriots are successful at stopping the run given the 3 D line men they have. They must almost occupy the whole 5 O linemen regularly. Enough of that though or I descend into stream of consciousness... ;-)

I read an interesting article recently on how the Indy run defense problems can essentially be layed at the feet of Dungy and the Tampa/Cover-2 system. This requires quicker linemen, linebackers but often leaves the team exposed to the run as the quicker linemen, linebackers tend not to be as stout against the run. So I have the jist of that argument correct? Again I find it all very interesting.


Don't get me started on the run-to-setup-the-pass v pass-to-setup-the-run debate.... The Patriots display against the Jags and the Vikes this year were interesting to me in that regard.

 

[RyanTheColtsFan]

Colts 38
Chefs 17

LJ gets 158 yards on the ground and scores twice. Two redzone turnovers by Green kill the Chiefs.

Patriots 24
Jets 10

Brady being Brady. Best game of the season.

NFC who cares.

 

[Gumby]

1. Pats vs. Jets - Pats. Is there a question here other than by how much? Typical patriots game I expect to see Patriots domination throughout the game; but not matched on the scoreboard. Jesters will never be in it; while BB pounds the run game at them with judicious TB passes. Relatively low scoring 21-13 type win.

2. Indy vs. KC - KC. KC rams the football at them. Will still be close game but if KC doesn't get scared off running and is persistent KC wins by 4..

3. Seattle vs. Dallas. Although Seattle is coming on strong at end; I think TO and Romo have enough to beat them at home. Dallas WILL COLLAPSE; just not this week.

4. Eagles vs. Giants. Eagles are all over Giants. Eagles defesne has been tuning up and Eli will be no match. Giants will try to match last weeks formula and ride Tiki to victory but the Eagles snuff him out and force Eli to a few too many 3rd and longs. Eagles O is consistent but uninspiring / scores enough to win by 7. This is most boring of the 4 games.

 

[The_Dragon]

Box and Pats1 absolutely do some of the best analysis of the game, including the professional sportswriters. It's great stuff.

Now for a strictly amateur viewpoint, informed by what I've read on this here forum -- you can't tackle if you can't shed a block and if you're not in position. IIRC, in the first part of 2003, the poor run defense was all about LBs being unable to shed blocks.

Partly that's about line play, tying up the big men so they can't get to the LBs and partly that's skill and strength in the LBs to get free to make the tackle. And partly it's about discipline, knowing who goes where, and reading the keys that tell a DL which way his man is going move.

In many ways, good run defense is good team defense and is trickier to teach than telling a CB to stay with his man and defend the ball. It's why CBs can be successful in their first year, safeties need a couple years, DLs need 2 or 3 years, and BB likes to bring in veterans at LB, though he's willing coach them up from the practice squad over a period of many years (see TBC).

BB's greatest strength as a coach is consistently delivering a stifling run defense while not giving up the ability to rush the passer.

Interesting stuff PF37. The more I think about the Patriots defense the more I see why BB used three 1st round picks on the D linemen. It's absolutely vital in the 3-4 that the D linemen occupy almost the entire opposition offensive line. I

t also explains why the Patriots were so eager to talk Junior Seau out of retirement. He was just the type of stout MLB that they like. Might also explain why the Patriots do not draft LBs in high positions. Younger men tend no to have the same stoutness???.

On the same subject I've read about the "two-gap system". I was wondering if this refers to the 2 "gaps" that are created when 5 O linemen face up to 3 D linemen?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Box_O_Rocks are you saying that switching to the 4-3 gives a better chance to shut down the passing attack? Is this because of the ability to rush the passer more with 4 line men rather than the 3 in the 3-4? I've often wondered about the various merits of the 4-3 as against the 3-4.

Would your suggestion about using the 4-3 mean we would see a game plan similiar to what the Pats did against the Bengals in the regular season?

I believe in one of BB's press conferences, he did a mini-analysis of the 3-4 vs. 4-3, he considered the 3-4 a better run formation and the 4-3 a better pass formation. You've probably noted the Pats going to a 4-3 on passing downs, dropping the OLBs down as DEs and moving Sey inside with Green.

Putting my easy chair coach's hat on: the 4-3 was used against the Jets in the Meadowlands, the 3-4 in Gillette. The 4-3 would seem to do a better job of clogging throwing lanes with Vince at 6-2 having the shortest arms to bat down a pass - Warren and Sey at 6-6 are both good at that. Green at 6-3 is just a great penetrator to pressure the backfield. The disadvantage is it's harder to disguise who is rushing. If Penny is throwing short, then it makes sense to clog the throwing lanes and sacrifice some run yardage.

If Vince's ankle is still tender, this takes pressure off of him to hold the nose, he'll have Sey inside to help and have Wright for rest periods.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Interesting stuff PF37. The more I think about the Patriots defense the more I see why BB used three 1st round picks on the D linemen. It's absolutely vital in the 3-4 that the D linemen occupy almost the entire opposition offensive line. I

t also explains why the Patriots were so eager to talk Junior Seau out of retirement. He was just the type of stout MLB that they like. Might also explain why the Patriots do not draft LBs in high positions. Younger men tend no to have the same stoutness???.

On the same subject I've read about the "two-gap system". I was wondering if this refers to the 2 "gaps" that are created when 5 O linemen face up to 3 D linemen?

Two gap is an on-field assignment - an area of responsibility for the defender. One gap is usually a penetrating, get there firstest with the mostest approach.

In two gap the Nose Tackle is responsible for the 'a' gaps between the Guards and Center. The Inside Linebackers are responsible for the 'a' and 'b' gaps on their side - this creates an overlap on the 'a' gap with the NT. The Defensive Ends have the 'b' and 'c' gaps, overlapping the 'b' with the ILBs. The Outside Linebackers cover the 'c' and 'd' gaps, overlapping the 'c' gap with the DE. Instead of penetrating by shooting a gap, they control their area along the line of scrimmage and try to create an opportunity for one of the gap defenders to slip the block and make the tackle. The OLBs also get the containment assignment to force the RB back inside into the high traffic area by 'setting the edge.' In a 2-gap 4-3 it still gets divided up that way, the gap assignment may change on each down due to defensive shifts to overload one side or another.