Final Regular Season Football Outsiders Rankings

[BelichickFan]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/01/02/ramblings/dvoa-rankings/4768/

We're 5th for the season. But we're 2nd in the Weighted rankings which weights the last half of the season heavier.

Offense 7th, Defense 8th, ST 8th. The Jest is 15th, 26th, 5th respectively.

Last year we were 7th, 27th, 12th respectively.

We're amazingly balanced.

Pass offense : 6th, Run offense : 8th, Pass defense 7th, Run Defense 10th.

The Jest, respectively is :

12th, 18th, 21st, 32nd.

 

[BelichickFan]

One extra thing, as our defense seemed to get a lot better last year in the second half, I looked at the Weighted 2005 Defense.

Last year the defense was 27th, Weighted only rising to 25th. This year our defense is 8th and weighted it is 5th.

So we really are far stronger heading into the playoff than last year.

 

[Patters]

Posted this URL in another thread, which sunk like a stone. It contains a couple dozen links to various rankings, and shows the Pats are generally ranked #4, by occasionally make 1, 2, or 3, depending on the formula used:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/wilson/nfl.html

 

[BradyManny]

Good info, I'll have to check these links in more detail later (when I'm not at work pretending to work).

Personally, I'm feeling pretty confident, and numbers like this only boost that feeling. We're balanced all around, and that's the toughest thing to compete with. Teams with glaring weaknesses get exposed real fast in the playoffs (Colts....)

 

[Oswlek]

One extra thing, as our defense seemed to get a lot better last year in the second half, I looked at the Weighted 2005 Defense.

Last year the defense was 27th, Weighted only rising to 25th. This year our defense is 8th and weighted it is 5th.

So we really are far stronger heading into the playoff than last year.

The problem with the weigthed rankings of last year are the fact that from the second half of the Jet game on NE stopped really trying.

Had the entire season been like the first Jet game to the TB game I Have no doubt that FO would have ranked them in the top 3.

I guess I am saying that I don't think the D is any better than the end of last year. It doesn't need to be, either. NE just needs to not turn the ball over and they can beat anyone.

 

[Kasmir]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/01/02/ramblings/dvoa-rankings/4768/

We're 5th for the season. But we're 2nd in the Weighted rankings which weights the last half of the season heavier.

Offense 7th, Defense 8th, ST 8th. The Jest is 15th, 26th, 5th respectively.

Last year we were 7th, 27th, 12th respectively.

We're amazingly balanced.

Pass offense : 6th, Run offense : 8th, Pass defense 7th, Run Defense 10th.

The Jest, respectively is :

12th, 18th, 21st, 32nd.

But Jets had 5th ranked special teams, we had 9th. We had the #1 kickoff return unit, they had the #2. Our kickoffs were good, as was our punt returns, but our fg/xp and punting were below average. Jet punting good, everything else average.

Overall, we're the only team with top 10 rankings for all three units, and indeed the only team with top 10 rankikngs for both offense and defense. We've been steadily improving in the 2nd half of the season. Last year's team was 12th in overall DVOA, BTW.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Not Bad, at all.

For a rebuilding club playing lots of rookies, sophomores and newcomers on Offense, Defense and STs.

 

[BelichickFan]

But Jets had 5th ranked special teams, we had 9th.

We were 8th not 9th. Also the difference wasn't big with The Jest ST at 3.2% and us at 2.6%.

 

[BelichickFan]

I guess I am saying that I don't think the D is any better than the end of last year.

I think we are. I think Samuel and Warren are both noticeably better than last year. Some might say OLB with TBC instead of McGinest is a downgrade but I don't think it's a big one; the other guys we have are largely playing the same.

 

[Kasmir]

We were 8th not 9th. Also the difference wasn't big with The Jest ST at 3.2% and us at 2.6%.

That's unweighted. Weighted DVOA we're 9th at 2.8%, Jets 5th at 4.9%.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst.php

On offense we were 8th ranked weighted at +12.2%, on defense 5th ranked at -12.5%:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff.php
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php

The Jets special teams are very good, but so are ours. Since the Jets are great at returning kicks, this game could be a big test for Gostkowski, who has been excellent at kickoffs but below average at fg/xp...

 

[Kasmir]

The problem with the weigthed rankings of last year are the fact that from the second half of the Jet game on NE stopped really trying.

Had the entire season been like the first Jet game to the TB game I Have no doubt that FO would have ranked them in the top 3.

I guess I am saying that I don't think the D is any better than the end of last year. It doesn't need to be, either. NE just needs to not turn the ball over and they can beat anyone.

We're 5th ranked at -12.5% this year on defense; last year we were 25th ranked at +9.1%. That's a huge difference in their system. The dramatic improvement year to year is in our pass defense, which was 29th ranked at +26.9% last year, vs this year's 7th ranked at -9.9%. A huge improvement.

 

[Oswlek]

I think we are. I think Samuel and Warren are both noticeably better than last year. Some might say OLB with TBC instead of McGinest is a downgrade but I don't think it's a big one; the other guys we have are largely playing the same.

I think we are going to agree to disagree. The secondary was playing much better than people thought over the final 5-6 games, it was just that people had images of burnt CBs and Safeties scorched into their heads. The run D was ridiculously good, practically on a historic level. They held NY/Buf/TB/NY to under 200 total yards. I admit that those are not the best offenses out there, but it isn't as if NE in 2005 was the first to ever face four poor offenses in a row. They were the first to do the under 200 quad-fecta, though.

Warren and Samuel are definitely playing better, but I think Wilfork, Vrabel, Hobbs and Willie (subbed for TBC) were better at this time last year. They held an OK team in Jax to 3 points and were a Faulk fumble away from shutting out a good Denver O for a half.

They were damn good last year. They are very good right now.

 

[Oswlek]

We're 5th ranked at -12.5% this year on defense; last year we were 25th ranked at +9.1%. That's a huge difference in their system. The dramatic improvement year to year is in our pass defense, which was 29th ranked at +26.9% last year, vs this year's 7th ranked at -9.9%. A huge improvement.

I understand the stats, I just don't agree with them. See my post above.

 

[Kasmir]

I understand the stats, I just don't agree with them. See my post above.

It's true that the defense came together towards the end of last season, but you're discounting this year's defense too much. We gave up 25 TD's receiving in 2005, but only 10 all year this year. We gave up less points than ever. That's impressive, and much of the reason we're 12-4 vs 10-6.

Last year the offense carried the team until the defense got its act together; this year the defense has carried the team, and the offense has now caught up.

BTW, special teams were a strength both years, but for very different reasons. Last year's team has good return games and average kicking. This year has terrible fg/xp and punting, good kickoffs and punt returns, and great kickoff returns. The Gost for Vinatieri trade has so far been a slight negative, but Maroney/Hobbs have been spectacular.

 

[skaIownsIyou]

also, if this means anything at all...hehe

espn.com's nfl power rankings has the pats ranked #3, behind SD and BAL....and IND CHI NO PHI NYJ SEA KC, rounding off the top 10