Fleshing out the "bad GMing" theory

[Fencer]

In a league where teams spend to a hard salary cap, there are three ways to screw up in personnel:

• Too many guys who are overpaid
• Too few guys who are underpaid
• Suboptimal talent mix

Looking at Miguel's page, the guy with the #2 cap hit was just cut. Ouch. #4 and #10 are on IR. #3 is missing some games right now. #9 and #11 are Ellis and Ochocinco respectively.

"Dead money" -- pre-Bodden -- isn't bad at all, however.

Bargain guys would include Gronk (definitely), Fumblefingers Hernandez (up to a point), Solder, Chung (arguably), Waters (I think -- Miguel's page isn't current on him), Woodhead, Arrington (underpaid JAG starter), and not all that much else.

McCourty should be atop that list, or second to Gronk, but he's having a rough season to date. Vollmer would be on it too, but he happens to be hurt. Spikes may join it at any time.

I don't see much of a mix problem. There's not a lot of redundant talent, RBs and OTs notwithstanding, and I don't see all that much talent getting stifled due to poor scheme fit.

So in which of these three areas do the critics think the Pats are doing badly?

 

[sbpatfan]

I just realized that's the worst thing Sanchez has ever done to this franchise. Throwing three picks to Bodden to inflate his salary.

 

[randomk1]

Quite a few of our starters would be benchwarmers and special teamers on most teams.

 

[Sciz]

Quite a few of our starters would be benchwarmers and special teamers on most teams.

Which "quite a few"?

 

[neuronet]

In a league where teams spend to a hard salary cap, there are three ways to screw up in personnel:

• Too many guys who are overpaid
• Too few guys who are underpaid
• Suboptimal talent mix

...
So in which of these three areas do the critics think the Pats are doing badly?

Seems like a bad way to frame the problem. It isn't very complicated. We lost our great defensive players, and he hasn't done a great job replacing them, especially in the back field. DLine is OK. If your D can't get off the field, you are in serious trouble. No matter who you are.

Emperor is definitely not naked. He used to wear wonderful regalia, but has dropped a few of the pieces lately, like shirt and shoes. He's wearing pants still, so there is hope.

 

[randomk1]

Which "quite a few"?

Most of the secondary+ guyton + Ninko,also not sure how much playing time guys like AH,Carter,Ellis would see elsewhere.

Our offense is ok aside from the flankers.

 

[Sciz]

Most of the secondary+ guyton + Ninko,also not sure how much playing time guys like AH,Carter,Ellis would see elsewhere.

Our offense is ok aside from the flankers.

McCourty, Chung, Arrington, and Carter are nowhere near bench warmers or special teamers on most other teams.

Arrington is also not technically a starter considering that Dowling was starting over him, but he's probably been the Pats' best CB this season.

Carter has probably been the best all-around edge player the Pats have had since 2007 Vrabel.

Guyton is not a starter. He's an injury replacement.

Haynesworth is not a starter. He is a situational player.

In a world with not enough good 3-4 ends, Ellis could get quite a bit of playing time on a lot of teams. Don't look at him as a 4-3 end, because his responsibilities are almost identical to those of a 3-4 end.

Ninkovich is getting a ton of hate after an off game, but he's still a perfect fit for what Belichick wants at that spot, somebody who is (almost always) very solid is all aspects of playing OLB.

Ochocinco is not a starter. He's an injury replacement for Hernandez.

Branch wouldn't be starting on other teams, but that's because you can't replicate the Brady-Branch connection with any other QB.

I give you two, Ihedigbo and Branch. The rest are either not starters or you are vastly underselling.

 

[randomk1]

McCourty, Chung, Arrington, and Carter are nowhere near bench warmers or special teamers on most other teams.

Arrington is also not technically a starter considering that Dowling was starting over him, but he's probably been the Pats' best CB this season.

Carter has probably been the best all-around edge player the Pats have had since 2007 Vrabel.

Guyton is not a starter. He's an injury replacement.

Haynesworth is not a starter. He is a situational player.

In a world with not enough good 3-4 ends, Ellis could get quite a bit of playing time on a lot of teams. Don't look at him as a 4-3 end, because his responsibilities are almost identical to those of a 3-4 end.

Ninkovich is getting a ton of hate after an off game, but he's still a perfect fit for what Belichick wants at that spot, somebody who is (almost always) very solid is all aspects of playing OLB.

Ochocinco is not a starter. He's an injury replacement for Hernandez.

Branch wouldn't be starting on other teams, but that's because you can't replicate the Brady-Branch connection with any other QB.

I give you two, Ihedigbo and Branch. The rest are either not starters or you are vastly underselling.

You would probably say the same thing about our probowl safety Meriweather or James Sanders? Who are coincidentally benchwarmers these days. The sad part is that i would rather have those guys back right now.

 

[Sciz]

You would probably say the same thing about our probowl safety Meriweather or James Sanders? Who are coincidentally benchwarmers these days. The sad part is that i would rather have those guys back right now.

Uh, no. I'd be calling those two out as weaknesses right now. Neither has been any better than Ihedigbo, and that's saying a lot.

 

[dhamz]

So in which of these three areas do the critics think the Pats are doing badly?

I think you missed the evaluating and acquiring talent part of the GMs job but if those are my 3 choices, I'll go with #3 and say the talent on the team is overwhelmingly on 1 side of the ball.

You have an elite talent level on offense - Great HOF QB, argubaly the best TEs in the league, a good to very good OL, solid RBs, and 1 great WR. It is 14 win talent.

On defense the talent level is just not good. On defense they have no one but Wilfork and Mayo who are elite caliber players and in each case, they aren't big impact playmakers. Moulden, Adams, Ihedigbo, and Brown played a lot of snaps Sunday. When you have guys whose NFL role is as special teamers and deep DB reserves all over the field as DBs you aren't going to be successful. The LB corp is abysmal even when Mayo is healthy, worse when he isn't. They were forced to play a run stuffing MLB who is bad in coverage (Spikes) 74 snaps in a game where there was no hint Pitt was ever planning to run the ball. Guyton and Ninkovich aren't good enough to be starters in the NFL but they are almost every down players here.

When you do not believe in shelling out $ for big free agents, you need to hit on draft picks. Contrary to what message board posters or mediots like Felger will tell you, it is the most proven method of NFL success. Pitt, Indy, and GB all do things the same way. The Pats drafting of defensive players has been really bad - especially in the secondary and that is what we are seeing on the field.

 

[ctpatsfan1]

I think you missed the evaluating and acquiring talent part of the GMs job but if those are my 3 choices, I'll go with #3 and say the talent on the team is overwhelmingly on 1 side of the ball.

You have an elite talent level on offense - Great HOF QB, argubaly the best TEs in the league, a good to very good OL, solid RBs, and 1 great WR. It is 14 win talent.

On defense the talent level is just not good. On defense they have no one but Wilfork and Mayo who are elite caliber players and in each case, they aren't big impact playmakers. Moulden, Adams, Ihedigbo, and Brown played a lot of snaps Sunday. When you have guys whose NFL role is as special teamers and deep DB reserves all over the field as DBs you aren't going to be successful. The LB corp is abysmal even when Mayo is healthy, worse when he isn't. They were forced to play a run stuffing MLB who is bad in coverage (Spikes) 74 snaps in a game where there was no hint Pitt was ever planning to run the ball. Guyton and Ninkovich aren't good enough to be starters in the NFL but they are almost every down players here.

When you do not believe in shelling out $ for big free agents, you need to hit on draft picks. Contrary to what message board posters or mediots like Felger will tell you, it is the most proven method of NFL success. Pitt, Indy, and GB all do things the same way. The Pats drafting of defensive players has been really bad - especially in the secondary and that is what we are seeing on the field.

I said it in other threads and I will say it here......the 06-08 drafts stunk and that is biting the Pats in the proverbial butt as those players, were there any left on the roster, would be entering or in the prime of their careers right now.....years 3, 4 and 5 of their playing careers. Pats have nothing to show for those drafts, nothing and that is what is hurting this team right now.

 

[grux]

I think you missed the evaluating and acquiring talent part of the GMs job but if those are my 3 choices, I'll go with #3 and say the talent on the team is overwhelmingly on 1 side of the ball.

You have an elite talent level on offense - Great HOF QB, argubaly the best TEs in the league, a good to very good OL, solid RBs, and 1 great WR. It is 14 win talent.

On defense the talent level is just not good. On defense they have no one but Wilfork and Mayo who are elite caliber players and in each case, they aren't big impact playmakers. Moulden, Adams, Ihedigbo, and Brown played a lot of snaps Sunday. When you have guys whose NFL role is as special teamers and deep DB reserves all over the field as DBs you aren't going to be successful. The LB corp is abysmal even when Mayo is healthy, worse when he isn't. They were forced to play a run stuffing MLB who is bad in coverage (Spikes) 74 snaps in a game where there was no hint Pitt was ever planning to run the ball. Guyton and Ninkovich aren't good enough to be starters in the NFL but they are almost every down players here.

When you do not believe in shelling out $ for big free agents, you need to hit on draft picks. Contrary to what message board posters or mediots like Felger will tell you, it is the most proven method of NFL success. Pitt, Indy, and GB all do things the same way. The Pats drafting of defensive players has been really bad - especially in the secondary and that is what we are seeing on the field.

+1. Belichick and co have done a great job on the offensive side of the ball (besides ochostinko). The lack of a pass rush and average corners (lets hope McCourty gets out of his funk) are a real problem. Belichick needs to take the picks he stock piled over the years and trade up in this years draft. This is the perfect time to take a shot at a top ten pick because of the new rookie wage scale. This team needs some impact defensive players that can make plays. Our defensive "value" picks don't seem to last more than 2 seasons.

 

[LivinLovin&Breathin_Brady]

Ocho may have been good in Cinci but he's clearly not workin' in NE. The money been spent on him, could easily be going towards some better secondary players in FA. I feel they should cut the whole D, except Wilfork, Mayo and Chung and rebuild.

The offense may have 14 wins talent, but if offenses continue to keep Brady on bench and all these Ds continue to play Brady the way the Jets, Cowboys and now the Steelers are playing him, there's no hope. I don't know if Brady sitting on the sidelines doing nothing is taking his energy out of the game or what... that offense just seemed dead against the Steelers until the near end of the game.

 

[Fencer]

A few responses and further thoughts:

1. I stand by the framing.

2. Generally, you get most of your bargain players via the draft. The Pats did have a few unproductive drafts. Not concidentally, if you leave out the bounty from yet more recent drafts (mainly TEs and OTs), the cheap young talent seems light.

3. That said, I forget Welker on the list of bargains!

4. OchoCinco is paid as more than a TE's backup. If that's what he is, then he's a personnel miss.

5. Arrington's a JAG starter to me; he only seems to be a superior player when you add a qualifier like "For a backup" or "For a late-round pick" (I think that's what he was rather than a UDFA).

6. I don't think the recent personnel moves have, as a group, been BAD. They just haven't been so excellent as to produce any more realistic chances for 19-0 teams.

 

[RayClay]

It cracks me up how someone can turn a whole team around while maintaining a winning record (and the lousy draft picks) every year and be a horrible GM.

I'm sure now that Buffalo has one winning team after years of horrible ones and the resulting high picks, their GM will be lionized as a personnel genius.

 

[Deus Irae]

6. I don't think the recent personnel moves have, as a group, been BAD...

Then you haven't been paying attention.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Which "quite a few"?

I'll go with Ninkovich, Ellis, whoever we trot out opposite Chung on any given Sunday, and Guyton as definites. If you consider the third cornerback to be a de facto starter (which I do), then Molden as well. On most teams, those guys would be second stringers at best. Love too, although I dunno who I'd call the starter between him and Haynesworth. A lot of people would probably argue that Carter belongs on that list too, but I like him.

 

[AQPE]

Good discussion here, a couple of points I'd like to make:

1. "GMing" is important, but IMHO coaching is more important. When evaluating the productivity of draft and free agent aquisitions for the Pats over the past five or six years, I see this as an important weakness that does not seem to get enough attention. I'm not indicting Belichick specifically on this, my concern lies more with the assistants/position coaches. With that said, much as I admire him, I think Bill has to get some real criticism on the coaching end as well as the personnel end. I think they are still suffering the loss of RAC and (to a lesser extent) "he whom shall remain nameless (now out of coaching and blowing gas on ESPN)."

2. None of us are in much of a position to know how Player A compares today to Player B. Just because we have seen Player A do some good things for the Pats or some other team in years past, and haven't seen or don't remember seeing Player B do anything equally good, doesn't mean we have any ability to know their relative capability to do what BB wants them to do for the Pats right now. This doesn't mean blindly accepting anything BB does without criticism; speaking for myself, doing that would make being a fan a lot less fun, but just "throwing names" out there doesn't prove anything (I'm not accusing anyone on this board of doing that). To put it in more specific terms relative to the team right now, I do not know why BB decided Philip Adams gets more done overall for the team than Bodden, and seeing a guy like Bodden get kicked to the curb bothers me because I thought he played fairly well 2 seasons ago. However, I wasn't able to see enough of Adams this week to know what he even did, which is something I think I'd need to know to be able to even form my own opinion. Maybe BB wanted Adams for special teams and was willing to accept the drop-off between Adams and Bodden in a 4th CB role. Who knows, I know I don't. I at least think that BB is not deliberately weakening the team, and I don't buy the "conspiracy theories" regarding Bodden bellyaching or the Pats trying to save a few bucks. I think that during the season, especially sitting there at 5-1 as he was last Friday, BB's focus is on getting the team to a championship, and not on money or some player whining.

3. As we get further away from the "championship era," we should appreciate the specialness of the mix of talented players, coaching staff, and personnel department staff that all came together (so quickly!) to create that era, and try not to measure the current team to that level. They lost one heck of a lot of talent in all three of those areas. BB is an all-time great but he was very well supported - and I strongly suspect he would be the first to say that.

4. The Pats have won 19 of their last 25 games. Let's not lose perspective.

 

[BradyFTW!]

It cracks me up how someone can turn a whole team around while maintaining a winning record (and the lousy draft picks) every year and be a horrible GM.

I'm sure now that Buffalo has one winning team after years of horrible ones and the resulting high picks, their GM will be lionized as a personnel genius.

The funny thing about Buffalo's turnaround this year is that they aren't getting much from their high draft picks. Just look at their firsts over the past few years:

2006 Donte Whitner - No longer with team
2006 John McCargo - No longer in the NFL
2007 Marshawn Lynch - No longer with team
2008 Leodis McKelvin
2009 Aaron Maybin - No longer with team
2009 Eric Wood
2010 C.J. Spiller - Might as well be no longer with team
2011 Marcell Dareus

The Bills' offense, in particular, is built around a bunch of castoffs and late-round picks. I do find that pretty impressive, in a vacuum- if they hadn't so consistently whiffed on their high picks, they'd have a really, really, really good team right now.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The funny thing about Buffalo's turnaround this year is that they aren't getting much from their high draft picks. Just look at their firsts over the past few years:

2006 Donte Whitner - No longer with team
2006 John McCargo - No longer in the NFL
2007 Marshawn Lynch - No longer with team
2008 Leodis McKelvin
2009 Aaron Maybin - No longer with team
2009 Eric Wood
2010 C.J. Spiller - Might as well be no longer with team
2011 Marcell Dareus

The Bills' offense, in particular, is built around a bunch of castoffs and late-round picks. I do find that pretty impressive, in a vacuum- if they hadn't so consistently whiffed on their high picks, they'd have a really, really, really good team right now.

Excellent point. There is more to a team than high draft picks and no one can measure the heart of a player or the value generated by having the right player in the right system.

In my opinion BB should be commended for his management of the cap over the past decade.

However my biggest beef with BB the GM, is the utter lack of a drafting philosophy and/or development plan for a very important position; OLB/DE. BB's lack of attention to this position has probably cost us a SB or two.

After we lost to the Colts in the playoffs a few years back, everybody said we needed WR's. BB went out and got Moss and Welker.

By contrast every year for the past half decade, nearly everyone has said we need pass rushers, and yet BB ignores the position. At some point he has to realize that veteran retreads are a waste of time and resources.

Time to wake up BB! You won 3 SB with a once in a generation QB and the leftovers from the BP drafts on defense. Now you need to prove you can draft and develop talented 3-4 OLB's for a defense screaming for a talent infusion at that position.