Seattle pick analysis

[Isaac]

For those who like the nitty-gritty, here's the detailed analysis on the Seattle pick.

A reminder on draft selection rules (http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers):
- Order is by final record (except SuperBowl teams)
- Ties broken first by playoff exit (or failure to qualify) and then strength of schedule.
Seattle’s current strength of schedule is .460. (See http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference for current strength of schedules)

If Seattle goes 8-8 (and doesn’t go to SuperBowl)
Teams that will pick after Seattle:
Regardless of Seattle game (6): NE, Balt, Ind, SD; Chi, NO
Guaranteed if Seattle goes 8-8 (5): NYJ, Denv, Jax or KC (winner); Phl, Dall
Guaranteed if Seattle goes 8-8 and team wins to go 9-7 (2): Cinc, TN
Possible if Seattle goes 8-8 (1): NYG (current strength of schedule .525) (assuming makes playoffs over GB—GB strength of schedule currently at .476) (Pick subject to playoff exit)
Pick range: 18-21

If Seattle goes 9-7 (and doesn’t go to SuperBowl)
Teams that will pick after Seattle:
Regardless of Seattle game (6): NE, Balt, Ind, SD; Chi, NO
Guaranteed if Seattle goes 9-7 and team wins to go 10-6 (4): NYJ, Denv; Phl, Dall
Possible if Seattle goes 9-7 and NYJ and/or Denv lose: remaining AFC wildcard teams (even at 9-7, all AFC wildcard eligible teams have significantly higher strength of schedule’s than Seattle, but would still be dependent on playoff exit)
Possible if Phl and/or Dall lose: Phl (.480), Dall (.476) (strength of schedule better than Seattle but close, would still be dependent on playoff exit)
Pick range: 22-26

As always, let me know about mistakes.

 

[Isaac]

Other threads on the topic:
http://208.109.107.176/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=47092

http://208.109.107.176/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=46881

(My pardon to those that prefer thread consolidation, I don't like to spend the time on something like this only to have it buried in another thread)

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I appreciate your post. Keep it updated as the day goes on!

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

From the Draft Boards..

The absolute lowest the pick can be now is #18.

This can be achieved by..(my calculations, so not an absolute, but I think I'm right)

1. Seattle loses Sunday to Tampa Bay and
2. Seattle does not make the Superbowl and
3. Cincinnatti beats Pittsburg and Denver loses to San Francisco and
4. Green Bay and/or Giants win on Sunday, and whichever of them makes the playoffs loses in the same round or later in the playoffs as Seattle.

Assuming that Seattle doesn't make the Superbowl, the highest the pick can be will be #23.

Now that the Giants have won, it has changed a little. This lowest the pick can be now is still 18, that happens if Seattle loses, Both Cinncinatti and (gulp) Tennessee wins, Seattle doesn't make the Superbowl, and the Giants lose in the playoffs in the same rd, or a later round than Seattle. Unless the ridiculous Grenn Bay SOS plays out, the Giants will play at Philly, while Seattle will host Dallas in the first round.

 

[BelichickFan]

If Seattle gets to 9-7 (and assuming no SB), they're behind every AFC playof team based on SoS. That's 6 teams lower right there.

NFC, Chicago, Philly, NO, Dallas. Lower than them too. They would be ahead of the 8-8 WC.

If Seattle goes 9-7, I don't see how they pick lower than #22 as there should be only one team with a worse record in the playoffs and Seattle's SoS is the worst (will get worse today with TB).

I think the worst is #22 and if Seattle loses today could be in the high teens as a few non playoff teams at 9-7 could go past them.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Well all I can say is the best scenario is still for Seattle for lose no matter what the other teams do which is pretty complicated to keep track off. Anyways just LOSE Seattle!! I'd be satisfied with any pick in the 18-21 range. We get some pretty good ones with lucky #21.

 

[Pisa]

Can't this pick be as low as an 11th? What if Seattle finishes at 8-8 and Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Carolina, Atlanta and St Louis also finish 8-8. Don't the Seahawks have the easiest schedule of that group? (and they play Tampa Bay today)

 

[Hok]

Can't this pick be as low as an 11th? What if Seattle finishes at 8-8 and Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Carolina, Atlanta and St Louis also finish 8-8. Don't the Seahawks have the easiest schedule of that group? (and they play Tampa Bay today)

Playoff teams pick after non-playoff teams with the same record, so if Seattle goes 8-8, they'll have to pick after all the 8-8 teams who missed the playoffs.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Playoff teams pick after non-playoff teams with the same record, so if Seattle goes 8-8, they'll have to pick after all the 8-8 teams who missed the playoffs.

Which is why a number of us were p***ed off when SF couldn't beat ARI (playing without Matt Leinart), and thus handed the Seahags the division. Watch the Niners beat the Broncos today. It would just figure. :enranged:

 

[Pisa]

thanks for the correction

Giants and Seattle could both end up at 8-8, both in the playoffs. If both go out in the same round, who drafts earlier, Giants or Pats?

 

[groundgame]

If Vegas had an over/under line on the Seattle round pick, today it would be something like 20.5?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: thanks for the correction

Giants and Seattle could both end up at 8-8, both in the playoffs. If both go out in the same round, who drafts earlier, Giants or Pats?

If teams exit in the same round (e.g., they both lose wild card games), then SOS determines the order. Seattle has the worst SOS in the league (thank you NFC West! ), so the Pats would pick first.

 

[Isaac]

Here's the update after today.

If Seattle doesn’t go to SuperBowl:
Teams guaranteed to pick after Seattle (8): NE, Balt, Ind, SD, NYJ; Chi, NO, Phl
Teams that will pick after Seattle as long as they don't go out of the playoffs first (2): KC; Dall
(Note: Dallas only beat Seattle in strength of schedule by 0.004!)

Pick range: 22-24

Much simpler now! The only other possibility is that the Giants make that playoffs, in which case Seattle's pick drop one (how's that for a long shot?).

 

[BelichickFan]

Here's the update after today.

If Seattle doesn’t go to SuperBowl:
Teams guaranteed to pick after Seattle (8): NE, Balt, Ind, SD, NYJ; Chi, NO, Phl
Teams that will pick after Seattle as long as they don't go out of the playoffs first (2): KC; Dall
(Note: Dallas only beat Seattle in strength of schedule by 0.004!)

Pick range: 22-24

Much simpler now! The only other possibility is that the Giants make that playoffs, in which case Seattle's pick drop one (how's that for a long shot?).

The pick is now locked in, I think at 22, other than SB. Advancement in the playoffs is irrelevant other than the SB.

 

[Isaac]

The pick is now locked in, I think at 22, other than SB. Advancement in the playoffs is irrelevant other than the SB.

No, Seattle, Dallas, and KC are all at 9-7 so their order is entirely dependent on when the exit the playoffs. The only way strength of schedule matters is if they leave in the same round.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers
"Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule. "

 

[BelichickFan]

No, Seattle, Dallas, and KC are all at 9-7 so their order is entirely dependent on when the exit the playoffs. The only way strength of schedule matters is if they leave in the same round.

That's not what someone posted in the Draft Forum.

Sigh.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That's not what someone posted in the Draft Forum.

Sigh.

I wrote this post a few days ago. AFAIK, no one has pointed out any errors.

 

[Isaac]

That's not what someone posted in the Draft Forum.

Sigh.

You know what they say about believing what you read on the internet...

I, for one, am deeply conflicted on who to root for in the Seattle-Dallas game. A Seattle win gives the #22 pick to Parcells, just in front of the Patriots. A Dallas win prevents me, as a life-long cowboy hater and post-Patriots Parcells hater, from pointing out to people that Parcells has never won a playoff game without BB.

I really hate Parcells... go Seahawks?!?

 

[sieglo]

You know what they say about believing what you read on the internet...

I, for one, am deeply conflicted on who to root for in the Seattle-Dallas game. A Seattle win gives the #22 pick to Parcells, just in front of the Patriots. A Dallas win prevents me, as a life-long cowboy hater and post-Patriots Parcells hater, from pointing out to people that Parcells has never won a playoff game without BB.

I really hate Parcells... go Seahawks?!?

No, go Cowboys.

Unfotunately, I think the Seahawks win this one though.