Browsing the mock drafts

[ctpatsfan77]

A few interesting facts from a collection of ~25 drafts: http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/2007_more_mockdrafts.cfm

Most drafted players (# of 1A picks/1B picks, avg. draft position)
Jeff Samardzija, WR (3/6, 27)
LaMarr Woodley, OLB/DE (5/1, 25)
Michael Griffin, S (3/2, 25)
Marcus McCauley, CB (3/1, 23)
Patrick Willis, ILB (1/2, 27)
Buster Davis, ILB (0/3, 28)

Draft picks that suggest the drafters reallydon't get the Pats philosophy:
23. Paul Posluszny, OLB; 25. LaMarr Woodley OLB/DE
23. Patrick Willis, ILB; 28. Buster Davis, ILB

Most interesting pick, in my mind, comes from Consensus Draft Services.

PICK #23 The Patriots Pick:
LaMarr Woodley (DE, Michigan)
With aging LB’s in the 3-4 system, Michigan’s LaMarr Woodley would fit in well as a Willie-McGinest-type player for Bill Belichick’s defense. Woodley has been a pass-rushing terror for the wolverines, forcing fumbles and wreaking havoc throughout his career.

PICK #25 The Patriots Pick:
Brian Leonard (FB, Rutgers)
Brian Leonard is not your typical full-back. When he works out at the combine or at the Rutgers pro-day, his stock will probably go up, as Leonard has better speed than people think. The senior leader can block, run, and catch extremely well and would help out any NFL backfield. In New England, he could serve as a potential replacement to Corey Dillion and make a 1-2 punch with Laurence Maroney, while also playing a little full-back and H-back. Expect Leonard’s stock to rise leading up to the draft.

Obviously, there's a problem in that the SEA pick is probably too low, and the Pats' own pick is probably too high. In addition, though, casting some aspersions on the entire process, is this line:

PICK #32 The Colts Pick:

 

[PonyExpress]

Disagree on Lamar Woodley. Have watched him closely all year and believe he does not have the quickness to play 3-4 OLB. The closer to the LOS the better. Will probably make a decent start 4-3 DE, or as a project pick, a Jeremiah Trotter style run plugging MLB/ILB. Either way, IMO not a good 1st rd fit for the Pats.

Although I like Leonard as a prospect, the emergence of Daivid Thomas as potential impact H-back mitigates against the need for a fullback. A sledgehammer running back to complement Maroney seems like a option, but 2 RBs in successive 1st rds seems like too much draft "treasure" spent at a position that promises a short career span.

I am one of those who believes young athleticism in the back 8 on defense is the final piece in the BB rebuilding job between the old dynasty and the new. With the backfield, TEs, OLine, and front 3 young and improving, the chief areas of need in my book are, in no particular order:

1. LB youth and athleticism
2. playmakers in the secondary (provided Samuel leaves via free agency)
3. Wild Card: Left Tackle
4. A possession receiver


The candidates for each position I am leaning toward (it's still early) are

1. Jarvis Moss, Victor Abiamiri, Anthony Spencer//Patrick Willis, Lawrence Timmons, Anthony Waters*(medical)
2. Leon Hall* (if he drops due to speed), Reggie Nelson, Marcus MaCauley
3. Joe Staley, Sam Baker
4. Dwayne Bowe, Rhema McKnight

 

[DarrylS]

I think the Rhema McKnight choice is interesting, he may fly under the radar somewhat.. without regard Charlie will tell us the real deal on him.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Disagree on Lamar Woodley. Have watched him closely all year and believe he does not have the quickness to play 3-4 OLB. The closer to the LOS the better. Will probably make a decent start 4-3 DE, or as a project pick, a Jeremiah Trotter style run plugging MLB/ILB. Either way, IMO not a good 1st rd fit for the Pats.

I haven't seen Woodley at all, so I'm just reporting what they say.

Although I like Leonard as a prospect, the emergence of Daivid Thomas as potential impact H-back mitigates against the need for a fullback. A sledgehammer running back to complement Maroney seems like a option, but 2 RBs in successive 1st rds seems like too much draft "treasure" spent at a position that promises a short career span.

And two first-round TEs doesn't make much sense, either.

But how much of that "short career span" stems from the idea of the single franchise back? Isn't there a good chance that having a platoon (a la Dillon and Maroney) would extend the careers of both backs?

[Plus (A) based on everything I've seen and heard about him, he pretty much already has a Flying Elvis on his helmet, and (B) by the end of TC he might well be an upgrade over Heath Evans and/or Patrick Pass. . . .]

I am one of those who believes young athleticism in the back 8 on defense is the final piece in the BB rebuilding job between the old dynasty and the new. With the backfield, TEs, OLine, and front 3 young and improving, the chief areas of need in my book are, in no particular order:

1. LB youth and athleticism
2. playmakers in the secondary (provided Samuel leaves via free agency)
3. Wild Card: Left Tackle
4. A possession receiver

Everything you say makes sense. I'm still not sure what I'd like to see, although I'd love to see {Leonard, good WR, good LB, and good S/CB} on day 1.

 

[PonyExpress]

I haven't seen Woodley at all, so I'm just reporting what they say.



And two first-round TEs doesn't make much sense, either.



But how much of that "short career span" stems from the idea of the single franchise back? Isn't there a good chance that having a platoon (a la Dillon and Maroney) would extend the careers of both backs?

[Plus (A) based on everything I've seen and heard about him, he pretty much already has a Flying Elvis on his helmet, and (B) by the end of TC he might well be an upgrade over Heath Evans and/or Patrick Pass. . . .]



Everything you say makes sense. I'm still not sure what I'd like to see, although I'd love to see {Leonard, good WR, good LB, and good S/CB} on day 1.

Drafting 2 1st rd TEs is different from 2 1st rd Rbs. The Pats run a 2 TE offense, so 2 quality TEs is an essential feature of their base formation. 2 1st rd RBs is a luxury, not a necessity.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Drafting 2 1st rd TEs is different from 2 1st rd Rbs. The Pats run a 2 TE offense, so 2 quality TEs is an essential feature of their base formation. 2 1st rd RBs is a luxury, not a necessity.

I should have added something: I'm not saying the Pats should use a round 1 draft pick on Leonard (although I probably wouldn't mind), but if he's available in round 2, I would be surprised if they didn't pick him.

Now, this, on the other hand, is insanity (from Fantasy Football Jungle):

Top 15 Targeted Prospects at Pick 18
Player # Drafts %
1 Marshawn Lynch, RB California 35 26.9
2 LaMarr Woodley, DE Michigan 7 5.4

At least with Leonard you're not getting, for all practical purposes, a Maroney clone. . . .

 

[cstjohn17]

Disagree on Lamar Woodley. Have watched him closely all year and believe he does not have the quickness to play 3-4 OLB. The closer to the LOS the better. Will probably make a decent start 4-3 DE, or as a project pick, a Jeremiah Trotter style run plugging MLB/ILB. Either way, IMO not a good 1st rd fit for the Pats.

Although I like Leonard as a prospect, the emergence of Daivid Thomas as potential impact H-back mitigates against the need for a fullback. A sledgehammer running back to complement Maroney seems like a option, but 2 RBs in successive 1st rds seems like too much draft "treasure" spent at a position that promises a short career span.

I am one of those who believes young athleticism in the back 8 on defense is the final piece in the BB rebuilding job between the old dynasty and the new. With the backfield, TEs, OLine, and front 3 young and improving, the chief areas of need in my book are, in no particular order:

1. LB youth and athleticism
2. playmakers in the secondary (provided Samuel leaves via free agency)
3. Wild Card: Left Tackle
4. A possession receiver


The candidates for each position I am leaning toward (it's still early) are

1. Jarvis Moss, Victor Abiamiri, Anthony Spencer//Patrick Willis, Lawrence Timmons, Anthony Waters*(medical)
2. Leon Hall* (if he drops due to speed), Reggie Nelson, Marcus MaCauley
3. Joe Staley, Sam Baker
4. Dwayne Bowe, Rhema McKnight

I like all the guys on this list, my view is that CB is the number one priority even if Samuel stays. The reasoning is under the new CBA round 1 players can be signed for 5 years, other rounds can be signed for 4 years. Getting an above average, cheap CB would really help with cap in future years. It would be sweet to have Samuel, Hobbs and a first round pick, throw in Scott and Randall Gay as backups and the corners look strong.

LB - I doubt that any LB is drafted in round 1, unless the player is a domininant pass rusher. College ILBs generally need time to bulk up and cannot handle the Patriots system in their first year or so. I could see someone like Harris from Michigan or Jasper Brinkley (Jr.) from South Carolina in rounds 2-3. I think they get a FA to replace Seau.

That leaves us with best available player for one of the first round picks, QB and D-Line would be major surprises but every other position could be upgraded if a stud is available, ascending order of need.

• CB - mentioned above
• LB - mentioned above
• WR - average cast at best, two open roster spots. Playmakers please apply. Could be a very strong WR class if some of the JRs declare.
• S - playmaker, Harrison has 1-2 more productive years and has some bad luck with injuries.
• O Line - Maybe Light is banged up but both tackle spots have been inconsistent.
• TE - Depends if Graham signs
• RB - Dillion is a little long in the tooth, if a top RB fell it would not be a shock. Possibly FB is later rounds if Evans leaves. I would be very surprised if they draft Leonard from Rutgers in round 1.
• DL - only if a Seymour type falls to them
• QB - only as trade bait

 

[PonyExpress]

Given last year's draft and comments from BB this season, I've had to rethink some of the "certainties" about the Pats' drafting patterns. The "Patriot's Way" is a much broader street than many national pundits assume. Few thought that Maroney was a Patriots' type players last year, but apparently he is... I also was under the assumption that undersized Lbers are not on BB's 1st rd wish list. As Remix has pointed out many times, Ernie Sims may have been on the Pats' radar last year. I remember a pre-draft article last year by Doctor Z where he quotes an "unnamed GM" that to my mind was transparently Scott Pioli. Mr X. couldn't sing the praises of Ernie Sims enough. BB had many nice things to say about DeMeco Ryans' versatility before the Texas game. As far as Jasper Brinkley, I couldn't agree more, but he apparently is staying in school due to promises he made his mother...

Free agency... Right now, the players who leap out whom I see the Pats targeting are Wes Welker and London Fletcher...

 

[Poll]

Could Welker be that short and quick receiver who can get separation instantly?

 

[Seneschal2]

Mr X. couldn't sing the praises of Ernie Sims enough. BB had many nice things to say about DeMeco Ryans' versatility before the Texas game.

The "Patriots Way" is also about finding 'football players'. The aforementioned are two. Sims has that non-stop-all-business-type motor that has to impress BB & Pioli. And Ryans has the smarts (scholar-athlete) and character that would make him a good fit.

Size can be overlooked, IF they are 'football players' that have the intangibles.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The "Patriots Way" is also about finding 'football players'. The aforementioned are two. Sims has that non-stop-all-business-type motor that has to impress BB & Pioli. And Ryans has the smarts (scholar-athlete) and character that would make him a good fit.

Size can be overlooked, IF they are 'football players' that have the intangibles.

Yes, but look back on BB's comments about Maurice Jones-Drew, to paraphrase, 'the percentage of smaller players capable of making the transition to the pros is much smaller and more difficult to project, then the percentage of six footers capable of making the transition.' I think weight, based on position, is also applicable under that standard.

For LB, I like to use a semi-arbitrary weight of 240 for potential Pats LB candidates in the draft. Bruschi at 247 was my measure, assuming a 240 lb LB could bulk up to a similar weight as the off-season program added muscle. Sims and Ryan didn't make my board for that reason - they've done well in 4-3 defenses - we're watching to see how Vilma holds up for Mangini since he was another smaller LB who BB presumably liked.

 

[PonyExpress]

Yes, but look back on BB's comments about Maurice Jones-Drew, to paraphrase, 'the percentage of smaller players capable of making the transition to the pros is much smaller and more difficult to project, then the percentage of six footers capable of making the transition.' I think weight, based on position, is also applicable under that standard.

For LB, I like to use a semi-arbitrary weight of 240 for potential Pats LB candidates in the draft. Bruschi at 247 was my measure, assuming a 240 lb LB could bulk up to a similar weight as the off-season program added muscle. Sims and Ryan didn't make my board for that reason - they've done well in 4-3 defenses - we're watching to see how Vilma holds up for Mangini since he was another smaller LB who BB presumably liked.

BOR,
What's interesting about Bruschi's listed height/weight is that he was measured at just 6'0'' coming out of Arizona, and seems to have "grown" on the Pats roster... I believe his real playing weight is 250+. I searched for a reference but can't find it, but I'm positive I heard this... I'm pretty sure Tedy, at least before the stroke, played closer to 255 than 247 FWIW. That's not unreasonable considering they have Dillon listed at 225, when this preseason he admitted being 231 lbs, 10 lbs lighter this year than last (i.e. he was playing at 240+ his 1st 2 years with the Pats). I think Harry Carson is BB's ideal ILB, a converted DE. I think it's about durability, a player being healthy for a playoff run season after season as much as it is about fighting off offensive guards. Players get slower as the season progresses... defenses that rely on speed and athleticism tend to wear down come December (Colts and Denver) due to bumps and bruises, defenses that rely on scheme, savvy, and power plod reliably through the winter months like Clydesdales. That being said, if Willis measures in at 6'2'', 240, his listed weight, or Timmons checks in at 6'3'' 240+ for the combine, then giddyup!!!

 

[cstjohn17]

The "Patriots Way" is also about finding 'football players'. The aforementioned are two. Sims has that non-stop-all-business-type motor that has to impress BB & Pioli. And Ryans has the smarts (scholar-athlete) and character that would make him a good fit.

Size can be overlooked, IF they are 'football players' that have the intangibles.

I think they really go for players that feel "football is important" and try hard to stay within their model of each position but will make exceptions for special players. The book "Patriot Reign" describes the rating system for college players, I don't have the book in front of me but they have a seperate category for players who are slightly smaller or slower than ideal but have exceptional ability.

That being said LB is one position where they try to stay within players in the 245-265 range. I don't expect a rookie LB to start and I don't think they will draft one in round 1, especially at ILB.

 

[Seneschal2]

For LB, I like to use a semi-arbitrary weight of 240 for potential Pats LB candidates in the draft. Bruschi at 247 was my measure, assuming a 240 lb LB could bulk up to a similar weight as the off-season program added muscle.

Agree. My Pats Prospects list doesn't usually include any LB under 240. I do keep the door open for 'special players' who may be too undersized for the Pats profile -- but possess intangibles that for one reason or another make them a possible candidate (by the coaches). This separate list of special (but undersized) prospects is usually only a handful of players, while the main list tends to focus on the OLB/DE conversion types like Banta-Cain, Claridge, and Mincey. Speaking of whom came out at 264, 254, and 259 respectively. So your point is accepted and respected.

BTW, one roster player made the undersized list a while back -- Eric Alexander. Knew he was a Saban-coached player (that's a plus). Was also a strong ST player (another plus). Undersized though at only 223. We signed him undrafted -- and he's now at 240. So I keep the door open for some...but agree wholeheartedly our standard for seeking out LBs ought to be in that 240+ range.

Sims and Ryan didn't make my board for that reason - they've done well in 4-3 defenses - we're watching to see how Vilma holds up for Mangini since he was another smaller LB who BB presumably liked.

All 3 made my short list of possible but unlikely prospects.

 

[Seneschal2]

I think they really go for players that feel "football is important" and try hard to stay within their model of each position but will make exceptions for special players.

One exception may have been Wilfork. Once considered a top 10 prospect, here's a player who was considered very mature...and had the attitude the Pats covet -- "football is important to him".

On another board (where I was born), the majority felt Vince wasn't a good fit regardless of his talent, for one reason -- he wasn't a 2-gapper. I clearly remember this debate...and admitted he only had 1-gap DT experience but because of his talent, maturity, etc. -- he may be coachable...so let's just "keep the door open" and allow the scouts and coaches make this decision.

And of course, Vince did struggle a bit with the 2-gap adjustment at first -- but he's O.K. now. Just one example...