BREAKDOWN: Brady Had to Be Pinpoint Accurate Sunday

[PatsFans.com Article]

BREAKDOWN: Brady Had to Be Pinpoint Accurate Sunday
By: Ian Logue

Taking another look at Sunday's game, it's pretty clear that one of the main reasons why they won was due to the play of Tom Brady, both before and after the snap....

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[ALP]

really insightful analysis here, i personally thought Brady could have played better, but seeing this i realize that the jets D really made Brady earn most of his throws, and looking at his completion % and also no picks (that were his fault) he actually had an amazing game

 

[cstjohn17]

BREAKDOWN: Brady Had to Be Pinpoint Accurate Sunday
By: Ian Logue

Taking another look at Sunday's game, it's pretty clear that one of the main reasons why they won was due to the play of Tom Brady, both before and after the snap....

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Same recipe they have had for the past few years, Brady plays superior they win.

 

[NinjaZX6R]

Great stuff Ian!

 

[patsox23]

Excellent article -- GREAT (and lots of) work!!!

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I think that the biggest difference between Sunday and last January is that the refs actually called the Jests for PI. Still they missed a few others, like the time that Hernandez was shutoff from going to the corner of the endzone. But all in all, the Jests did not get away with the PI, that they did in January.

Now when the game is in the new swamp, I doubt that the Pats will get as many calls as they did on Sunday.....

 

[Mainefan]

I like this too, Ian, and I agree with most of your "degree of difficulty" calls. But of course we're mere humans. It would be fascinating to have Brady read it himself and see if he agrees. I wonder what throws are hard for him and which are easy.

 

[tuckeverlasting]

excellent effort.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

One of your better pieces of work Ian. Well done sir.

 

[Ian]

Thanks everyone, I appreciate it. Watching last night's game between Detroit and Chicago I noticed a lot of similar situations that happened where those throws didn't get completed, which makes you appreciate just how good he really is.

 

[cstjohn17]

Nicely down Ian, Brady is King.

One of the passes to Branch was just sick. The Jets had an unblocked rusher and Brady threw it before Branch broke out of route, the pass hit Branch exactly in stride way out to the opposite sidelines. The coverage was pretty tight, if Brady under throws the ball it is likely a pick 6 the other way.

The Patriots were moving right to left on the TV. Not sure when it occurred but think it was this play.

2nd Quarter
2-6-NE 48 (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Brady pass deep right to D.Branch to NYJ 23 for 29 yards (D.Revis).

 

[Ian]

Nicely down Ian, Brady is King.

One of the passes to Branch was just sick. The Jets had an unblocked rusher and Brady threw it before Branch broke out of route, the pass hit Branch exactly in stride way out to the opposite sidelines. The coverage was pretty tight, if Brady under throws the ball it is likely a pick 6 the other way.

The Patriots were moving right to left on the TV. Not sure when it occurred but think it was this play.

2nd Quarter
2-6-NE 48 (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Brady pass deep right to D.Branch to NYJ 23 for 29 yards (D.Revis).

That was this play:

11th: This was a 29 yard throw to Branch, with Brady dropping it in perfectly near the far sideline over Wilson and right into Branch’s hands. On the play Branch ran out, stopped, and then drifted right, and Brady put it right on the money. Branch caught it in stride at about the Jets 36 yard line, and took it down to the Jets 23.

Degree of Difficulty: 9 - When you take into account the distance of this throw and how it was executed, it was a tremendous play. This wasn’t a deep out, so it’s not like Branch had his guy chasing him. It was a tough throw, and when you factor in the fact Brady’s right foot was on his own 38 and his left foot was on the 39 when he released the ball (nearly 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage, and over 20 yards from where Branch initially caught it), this was a perfectly thrown ball that not only connected with Branch, but was thrown outside and right where he could catch it in stride and make a play.

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I agree, it was an incredible throw - and when you look at the distance the ball traveled from where Brady released it and where he dropped it in, it doesn't get much better than that

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Awesome breakdown, Ian.

The only pass I would disagree with is the INT to Hernandez. I would rate it a 7 or 8, but not a 10. The ball was wobbly and not a spiral.

 

[Ian]

Awesome breakdown, Ian.

The only pass I would disagree with is the INT to Hernandez. I would rate it a 7 or 8, but not a 10. The ball was wobbly and not a spiral.

Thanks, it took a while but it was fun to put together

That's the tricky part, it wasn't based on the quality of the throw, but more the difficulty of it due to the proximity of the defenders, etc. I had it rated that way primarily because of the fact there were two guys right on Hernandez, and Brady still put it up in the only spot Hernandez could have made a play and came down with it. I watched that back several times and you can see that he basically brought his hands together too quick and squeezed it out, and obviously they were right there to take it away. That was a tight spot with no margin for error, and he definitely should have had it. I initially thought maybe he threw it behind him, but after taking another look, he didn't, he just didn't catch it. It's just unfortunate, but luckily wasn't a turning point in the game.

 

[Mainefan]

What I especially liked about your article, Ian, is that it gave us (the fans) a way--other than the raw statistics--to understand WHY Brady is so good.

 

[Ian]

What I especially liked about your article, Ian, is that it gave us (the fans) a way--other than the raw statistics--to understand WHY Brady is so good.

I actually came up with the idea when I was watching it back and noticed how close the Jets defenders were on each completion. So I decided to rewind it and log each one, and it kind of grew from there.

As I said, watching the Lions / Bears game last night, there were a multitude of plays where the ball was thrown too far inside and a couple of guys got hit hard, or the other way where they couldn't make a play after the reception. So it really makes you appreciate just how on his game Brady really is compared to a lot of these other guys.

 

[Buchanty]

What I especially liked about your article, Ian, is that it gave us (the fans) a way--other than the raw statistics--to understand WHY Brady is so good.

Totally agree.

Great article and a much more meaningful way of examining QB play. The only weakness in using this to support any argument is that by design the difficulty ratings are subjective, but that does not take away from the effort and even if you downgrade the degree of difficulty TB's output is way out there.

What makes it more interesting is the contrast to most other media pundits who go along with Passer Ratings and surmise that Brady was hovering above average, while Rogers was exceptional. Not that I am bashing Rogers, but from my view he has in general had more receivers open and less degree of difficulty in his throws and he has yet to come across a Jets/Ravens type of defense (Saints possibly but the home game after a Superbowl win is a huge advantage).

Many thanks - I hope you do it again.

 

[Mainefan]

Yes...I hope you do it again as well--for every game. It will add to our understanding of what happened and it will make one hell of an end-of-the-season document, with all kinds of opportunities for further analysis and insight.