I am confused, the Seattle pick could be what????????????????

[midwestpatsfan]

I am almost embarrased to ask this question, but I thought I had this whole seattle draft pick figured out, but then I got to reading another post where posters had the pick somewhere around 16.

A yes or no could answer all my questions?

Here goes.
All playoff teams pick after all non-playoff teams regardless of record or strength of schedule, correct?

What I mean by this is that even if Seattle finishes 8-8 but ARE in the playoffs, they would pick after teams like Cincinnati who could finish 10-6 and NOT make the playoffs. This is correct, right?

Sorry for another thread on this, but I need some clarification on this whole deal.

 

[SeanBruschi54]

Best case scenario for us we would get pick number 15.

The absolute lowest.

 

[BelichickFan]

Here goes.
All playoff teams pick after all non-playoff teams regardless of record or strength of schedule, correct?

What I mean by this is that even if Seattle finishes 8-8 but ARE in the playoffs, they would pick after teams like Cincinnati who could finish 10-6 and NOT make the playoffs. This is correct, right?

NOT CORRECT.

The Seahawks will be in their "record group" of 9-7 or 8-8 depending on the last game. The impact of making the playoffs is it puts them below all non playoff teams in their record group. Then SoS takes over as the next tiebreaker.

So the Seahawks will pick near the bottom of the 9-7 or 8-8 group as they'll be a playoff team. But if they're 8-8 they'll pick ahead of any 9-7 teams even if those 9-7 teams don't make the playoffs.

 

[groundgame]

#21 give or take a couple

 

[SeanBruschi54]

#21 give or take a couple

This is probably going to be in the general area of our pick.

Right now i would say we pick #20. But we'll see as anything could hapen.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I know the SB winner is not accounted for by the "record group", and I believe the runner up as well (#31 is the SB loser, #32 is the SB winner, as I recall.) That's the exception -- someone corroborate though, please! This is from memory.

 

[SeanBruschi54]

I know the SB winner is not accounted for by the "record group", and I believe the runner up as well (#31 is the SB loser, #32 is the SB winner, as I recall.) That's the exception -- someone corroborate though, please! This is from memory.

SB participants are the exceptions.

Yes sir you are correct.

 

[pats1]

The Seahawks' most likely pick at this point is #20, at a 35% chance:

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfldraftorder.html

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

If the Seattle loses in the super bowl it will be the 31st pick.. but they are guranetee no lower than the 20 th pick..

 

[SeanBruschi54]

The Seahawks' most likely pick at this point is #20, at a 35% chance:

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfldraftorder.html

Cool my math was correct then basing it on pure speculation of wins and loses next week.

 

[patsfaninpa]

If the season ended today we pick 22nd. Last amongst the 8-7 teams.
However, if Seattle loses to TB. We would pick next to last amongst 8-8 teams. 18th. I'm assuming one of 7-8 teams in NFC wins and makes the playoffs at 8-8(St.L). They would be 19th. 10 teams(I'm assuming Den,Jets,Dallas and Philly win this wk) will probably have 10+ wins. Picks 23-32. I think 3 8-7 teams win. Cincy,KC/Jax winner and Tennessee. I'm guessing we play this week like last year's final game. Will see a lot of Matt Cassell. Those three 9-7 teams would pick 20-22. The two 8-8 NFC teams that make the playoffs pick 18 and 19. Seattle 18 because of weaker schedule. Let's go Bucs!!

This could change if Seattle wins a playoff game. Could move ahead
of other NFC team. Provided that team doesn't win a playoff game either.
We got lucky this weekend. Seattle lost. Looks like Dallas will get 5th seed and be a tough matchup for Seattle in 1st round.

 

[pats1]

If the Seattle loses in the super bowl it will be the 31st pick.. but they are guranetee no lower than the 20 th pick..

Incorrect.

At this time, the Seahawks still have a mathematical shot for even the #11 pick.

Playoff teams aren't guaranteed any pick, unless they make the Super Bowl.

 

[RayClay]

Incorrect.

At this time, the Seahawks still have a mathematical shot for even the #11 pick.

Playoff teams aren't guaranteed any pick, unless they make the Super Bowl.

I believe if they have the same record, (8-8) the pick below other 8-8 teams because they are in the playoffs. It is the 1st tiebreaker.

If that happens, has anyone figured what our highest pick could be?

 

[pats1]

I believe if they have the same record, (8-8) the pick below other 8-8 teams because they are in the playoffs. It is the 1st tiebreaker.

If that happens, has anyone figured what our highest pick could be?

27 - <1%
28 - 89%
29 - 11%
30 - 1%

With the exception of the Pats making the Super Bowl.

 

[RayClay]

NFL Draft Basics
From James Alder,
Your Guide to Football.
FREE Newsletter. Sign Up Now!
Determining Order of Selection

• The team with the lowest winning percentage at the end of the previous season drafts first in the NFL Draft.

• The rest of the teams are placed in order from lowest winning percentage to the highest.

• The Super Bowl winner drafts last, even if they do not have the highest winning percentage.

• The Super Bowl loser drafts next to last.

• Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage.

• Divisional and conference records are the next step in the tie-breaking procedure.

• As a last resort, a coin toss is used to determine the order of selection for teams with the same winning percentage.

• If a playoff and non-playoff team end the season with the same winning percentage, the non-playoff team selects before the playoff team regardless of strength of schedule.

 

[RayClay]

I don't think it can be higher than ** depending on matchups, (both teams needing to win playing each other) because only one 7-8 team can make the playoffs.

I'll stick with that.

Hope somebody good at this stuff takes a crack at it.

18 and that's my final offer! LOL

 

[ctpatsfan77]

27 - <1%
28 - 89%
29 - 11%
30 - 1%

With the exception of the Pats making the Super Bowl.

Actually, my understanding of the way this works (based on the fact that the Chargers are 'guaranteed' pick #31 or #32) is that this excludes any effects from the Super Bowl. So, let's assume the Pats get #28, and that Seattle made the Super Bowl. That would bump the Pats up to #27.

 

[shakadave]

My Seattle PickTracker(TM) currently has us picking 22. But remember the 21 magnet phenomenon: 100% of our picks in the 18-26 range happen at #21.

 

[BelichickFan]

I've never seen that site before - that is SWEET.

 

[shakadave]

The Seahawks' most likely pick at this point is #20, at a 35% chance:

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfldraftorder.html

Great site! But flawed in a few places, including Seattle. They have Seattle pick ahead of KC when KC misses playoffs --- impossible, right? Also, they have SD with 95% chance of picking 32? There's only a 1 in 20 chance that somebody other than the Chargers wins the Super Bowl??