Perhaps you're right Biggie, but then it may not be as bad as you think...
Source:
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/gamebook/NFL_20061217_HOU@NE
Houston: First Half first downs = 4, 1 from running, 3 from passing (not an impressive running statistic...)
Ron Dayne first half stats: 9 carries, 48 yds, 5.3 avg/carry, Longest 19* yds.
*accounts for the one first down
Lets look at that 19 yd scamper: 2nd Qtr 1-10-HOU10 (6:43) R.Dayne up the middle to HST 29 for 19 yards (A.Samuel, R.Colvin). [ur]http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay/NFL_20061217_HOU@NE[/url]
Going to the tape I see Wright double-teamed by the C/RG and Warren double-teamed by the RT/TE. Colvin is setting the edge against the FB, while the LG pulls and turns Bruschi outside just enough to give Dayne a crease - Vrabel is playing the cutback lane in the LG's hole and is easily picked off, as he abandons the lane responsibilty, by the RG releasing off the double-team of Wright as Vrabel tries to come around the double-team pile and over the middle to help Tedy. A beautifully blocked play that put 4 OL and a TE at the point of attack. To make it even better, that big WR Johnson gets inside and blocks Hawkins as the first S to come up. Dayne gets another 9 or so yds because Colvin who caught him from behind is trying to strip the ball and not worry about bringing him down right away.
Now Dayne did indeed gain 94 yds in the game - but do you assume a Patriots' team who has a substantial lead is overly worried about the run? 1st and 10 at the Houston 10 with a 20 to 0 score, the Pats do not have 8 men in the box, they have the safeties playing deep...
Jacksonville will need to pass at some point, if only to keep the Pats honest. Wright may not have impressed Albert Breer, but for a first start he did quite well in the middle. Houston's 105 total yds in rushing are an empty statistic for predicting the result of the Jacksonville game.
I see no reason not to start the game in the 3-4, it is the Pats' strongest run stopping formation. Wright has consistently drawn double-teams when I see him on tape at NT. That means the offense has allocated two players to keep him out of the play. If the Offense wants to, they can use a heavy formation, like the one you don't like, to telegraph a run with 8-9 blockers working against the Pats front seven, except telegraphing also brings down Sanders and Hawkins. So anytime Wright draws a double-team there is a Patriot player who does not have a blocker assigned, which means someone should be able to find that runner and slow him down. Wright isn't the end of the Pats #4 ranked rush defense and 175 yds for Jacksonville sounds just a tad pessimistic.
Bring it on Jax, Go Pats!
