Ochocinco only in on 18 plays

[JoeSixPat]

I've been doubtful of the role Ochocinco could play from the start, so my expectations for him are actually on the low side - but for this game it's understandable he'd not be part of the play calling.

Brady's going to go to tried and true receiving options in that situation - which is what he did as noted by the stats - and that approach was custom made for the gameplanning and situation that Belichick faced in Miami.

It worked. Well. And I think Ochocinco's on board with the fact that some games will play out that way. I think he "gets it" and you won't hear him complain about touches, which is good

But I alsp expect we will see a game or two in which the gameplan requires him to take a more prominent role - and at that time we'll see what he has and judge him on that

But for this game, for this gameplanning situation - it's understandable Ochocinco wouldn't be a featured player.

What was actually of interest to me is that they specifically sent many players deep and threw a good number of bombs - and pretty much everyone stepped up to the plate on the field in terms of being a deep threat.

Hernandez himself might wind up being the defacto deep receiver even if Ochocinco doesn't pan out - and that alone is going to drive defenses bonkers if you're sending a guy like Hernandez 20 - 30 yards deep quite often.

So overall I'm really impressed by both the playcalling, as well as the strategic use of players, along with some twists thrown in to make defensive coordinators cry.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I hope he gets it. And not just the playbook. The consistent demand for intensity and focus. That illegal formation penalty that negated someone elses excellent execution was inexcusable for a guy in the league ten years. That's a mental error, the kind of thing that drives BB and his QB batschit... I think Chad didn't expect it would be nearly as complex an endeavor to fit in here because he's used to his combination of talent and charm greasing the skids... Talent takes a back seat here unless it's otherworldly as in Moss '07. Beyond that it's consistency and execution and selflessness that matters here.

The Gronkowski's are going to be playing big WR's on the scout team this week to get the DB's ready for SD. Maybe Ocho should lobby Bill for a role on the scout team...

 

[GrogansArmy]

This is going to sound dumb, but I know BB loves Chad, I know Chad has the same love for BB, so until I see BB get down on Chad, I am not worried at all about 85. I think Chad is changed, he just wants to be with a winning team and to be able to help however he can and be a part of the end result. Whether thats as a decoy or a blocker, or the main receiver, I feel he just has a lot of respect for BB and TB and the Pats in general and will help any way he can even if it means he cannot be the star.

Remember, Chad was there when Corey Dillon was there, and I'm sure Corey talked to Chad about how different it was here. That said, I'm sure Chad knows he's just another cog in the wheel. If he screws up, he's gone, he has to know that.

And, if you think about it, he's totally turned around his image in the past 2 months. He's now quiet, even his tweets are tame now. I think he's become a convert and truly believes in this system and knows that if he ***** up here... its over for him. Randy on the other hand thought he was bigger than the team, and unfortunately for him he realized too late that its not so, and regrets it to this day.

 

[Betterthanmost]

I can bet on that penalty for illegal formation, all he was thinking about was the play call. He was like, what the heck was I supposed to here? He never saw the TE.

 

[goheels22002]

Chad Diez y Ocho will get his chances. He did not distinguish himself against Miami. One nice catch and one sophomoric penalty.

Last night it looked like the underneath and seam routes were the big options and the out routes weren't. Teams will adjust giving Brady more outside looks and Branch and Ocho become the main event.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Due to the abbreviated off season, a lot of bad teams may look good and a lot of good teams may look bad during the first month of the season. The same concept will apply to individual players. (Such as 8-5) It is the finished product that we need to be concerned with.

 

[Fahrenhype]

All them had OTA's had the playbook from April on. Ocho got them just over a month ago

This keeps getting overlooked. There is also the fact that this isn't the 2007 season. Brady isn't going to throw 23 TD passes to one guy. It is more likely there will be three players with 10+ TD's. I'll bag on Ocho if/when he muffs a catch that has a very direct and adverse outcome on a game. Maybe he ends up being this year's Donte Stallworth and his contributions are minor compared to what a few of the other offensive weapons achieve. Either way, the offense should be the least of anyone's concerns for this team.

 

[Gumby]

In a game plan set for a focus on 2 TE sets to mismatch w/ their lower quality 3&4 CBs & Safeties and with a top tier cb matched against him when he is on the field; I don't think I have too much of a problem.

I don't know at this point how much this game was 'he hasnt learned the playbook yet; and how much was just game planning. I think it is more game planning.

Looking at it another way; he was targeted on 2 of 18 or 12% of the plays he was game designed to be on the field. If we have 70 offensive plays routinely and he is a regular #2 receiver (in on about 50-60 of them); then he should be getting targeted 7.2 times a game. If he catches 75% then we are talking 5.4 catches a game.

I don't know about you; but with the number of weapons Brady has if Chad is right now on track to have 5 catches a game; I am happy.

 

[supafly]

We've talked about this for months. In a game plan where we run a lot 2 TE sets (and some 3 TE sets), The 3rd WR position doesn't have a central role. We want to have our TE's involved! I would note that out 2010 #3 WR averaged 1.5 catches per game. Tate had 24 catches, Edelman (our #4) had 7 and we had a GREAT passing year.

It's fine to hope that Price or Ocho, or Price and Ocho together will get 60 or 70 catches. That's not happening. It is very unlikely that they will total anywhere near that many barring injuries.

I'm fine with our top 5 receivers being Welker, Branch, Hernandez, Gronkowski and Woodhead, as was the case in 2010. And yes, we our #6 and #7 receivers will be our #3 WR and our starting RB. So we need Ocho to play his part, as Edelman did, as Slater did.

That's fine and all, and I do agree with everything that you said.

The "problem" (if there is one), is that he is making 6 million +, and is the highest paid receiver on the team...in a role where he is currently the 5th receiving option at best:

1.Welker
2.Hernandez
3.Branch
4.Gronkowski
5.Price/Slater/Edelman/Ochocinco

If the media and fan image of him is going to be continued to be questioned, as he will be called out for not knowing the offense etc (already happened today with Bruschi) + he won't even have the chance to see many reps, then I think a storm may be a brewin'....now the situation becomes totally different, now the team is paying him major money to not just be a decoy/role player vs certain teams, now they are actually paying him major money to be a pain in the @ss..

My personal belief is that he will be used when needed, in certain roles vs certain teams. We can all guess as to what team(s) that will be

Regardless, I still personally believe that he is a much too expensive option for his particular role, and it did not take a genius to realize that he would not be used too much (unless they cut Branch in TC, which I actually thought may have been the plan at one point).

It will be a worthwhile topic to keep an eye on, that's for sure.

 

[supafly]

Looking at it another way; he was targeted on 2 of 18 or 12% of the plays he was game designed to be on the field. If we have 70 offensive plays routinely and he is a regular #2 receiver (in on about 50-60 of them); then he should be getting targeted 7.2 times a game. If he catches 75% then we are talking 5.4 catches a game.

That's a good point Gumby, but do we have any reason to believe that he may actually be in on 50-60 plays out of 70?

If that's the plan, then fine--and that is one of the reasons his signing made me wonder if cutting Branch in training camp was a possibility. But when Branch was kept I started to wonder just how he would get enough reps with a 2TE heavy offense.

I just can't see Ochocinco in on 50-60 out of 70 possible plays, unless maybe Branch ends up hurt, which is certainly a possibility. Otherwise, I think that Chad will simply be used as a role player of sorts for specific game planning vs specific teams.

I am sure there's some kind of plan in place, as Belichick is far from stupid, so all of this talk of how he'll be used is probably pointless in the big picture. He'll probably get some specific targets vs certain teams in gameplanning situations, and some more looks in possible injury situations too, but at the end of the day I can't see how he will be used all that much, or have too much productivity overall.

There's also the question of how the 'other' WR's will/can develop now too, such as Edelman and Price--who we all would like to see more of in certain situations.

It's a high-brow problem, or whatever they say. In other words, it's a nice issue to have, but the only thing I question is that high salary of his. It just doesn't seem like a good monetary move for him to be the highest paid WR on the team. Just my opinion though.

 

[PatsFan37]

Analyses I read before the game said the Phins weakness was in the middle and the TEs would have a big day. 85 wasn't emphasized in the game plan. It'll be the same against the Jets, if 85 draws Revis or Cromartie. Against teams like the Steelers, I'd look for 85 to have a bigger day.

Brady is going to target the weaker players and if 85 is an expensive decoy that ties up the opponent's expensive coverage, then he's doing his job.

 

[Gumby]

That's a good point Gumby, but do we have any reason to believe that he may actually be in on 50-60 plays out of 70?

No reason (I think) except for history. Data from a couple games courtesy of Reiss ESPN-Boston posts. Lets take a look and see how it comes out.

A look at the positional groupings utilized by the Patriots offense in their 26-10 victory over the Falcons:
3 WR/1 TE/1 RB -- 30 of 83 snaps
2 WR/2 TE/1 RB -- 28 of 83
1 WR/3 TE/1 RB -- 13 of 83
1 WR/2 TE/1 FB/1 RB -- 9 of 83
3 WR/2 RB -- 2 of 83
2 WR/1 TE/1 FB/1 RB -- 1 of 83
(The Patriots ran 81 official plays. Four penalties are included, while two kneel-downs are not included.)
............
A look at the offensive positional groupings utilized by the Patriots in their 27-21 win over the Ravens:
2 WR/2 TE/1 RB -- 27 of 67 snaps
3 WR/1 TE/1 RB -- 19 of 67
2 WR/1 TE/2 RB -- 11 of 67
1 WR/2 TE/2 RB -- 4 of 67
3 WR/2 RB -- 4 of 67
3 TE/2 RB -- 1 of 67
1 WR/3 TE/1 RB -- 1 of 67

From 2 games from 2009 randomly chosen w/ 1 being TE heavy and one not:
out of 150 snaps; # of 2+WR sets = 62+61=123 (65 2WR sets)
AND # of 3+WR snaps = 25+32=57

I would think Chad is guaranteed to see action on 3+WR plays and is likely to see action on half the 2WR plays. So 57 +32/2 = 89/2 ==> 45 plays is a likely avg. So 45 is a bit less than my 50-60 guess; but if he starts to be productive and becomes the true #1 (displacing Branch); then I think my guess is pretty valid.

....... In other words, it's a nice issue to have, but the only thing I question is that high salary of his. It just doesn't seem like a good monetary move for him to be the highest paid WR on the team. Just my opinion though.

Agree we may be overpaying for the what we get from him; but if you are going to take a trade-in of someone you have to deal somewhat with his history (some other teams cap mis-managment). Plus to some extent his price isn't what he means to us; but what his level of player costs on the open market. He is a # 1 or 2 reciever and they make that level.

Granted Branch and welker have more cap friendly deals; but that is a function of what they were willing to sign up for. They have both had opportunities to negotiate more and were at the time satisfied with deal they made. Welker will likely get more (well deserves) in his next extension/re-sign. But Branch was trying to resurrect his career and welker got a slot receiver pay scale. That Branch succeeded and that pats use of Welker is re-defining the position weren't FACTS before they negotiated their deals.

I would say stop worrying so much on the front office side; and focus on the are we getting productivity from Chad (football side) question.

 

[Mack Herron]

He is obviously struggling. We all hope for the best, but know there is no sentimentality in BB's roster. It is all about productivity. He could be about an injury or two from creating a slot on game day for Price.

 

[supafly]

No reason (I think) except for history. Data from a couple games courtesy of Reiss ESPN-Boston posts. Lets take a look and see how it comes out.


From 2 games from 2009 randomly chosen w/ 1 being TE heavy and one not:
out of 150 snaps; # of 2+WR sets = 62+61=123 (65 2WR sets)
AND # of 3+WR snaps = 25+32=57

I would think Chad is guaranteed to see action on 3+WR plays and is likely to see action on half the 2WR plays. So 57 +32/2 = 89/2 ==> 45 plays is a likely avg. So 45 is a bit less than my 50-60 guess; but if he starts to be productive and becomes the true #1 (displacing Branch); then I think my guess is pretty valid.




Agree we may be overpaying for the what we get from him; but if you are going to take a trade-in of someone you have to deal somewhat with his history (some other teams cap mis-managment). Plus to some extent his price isn't what he means to us; but what his level of player costs on the open market. He is a # 1 or 2 reciever and they make that level.

Granted Branch and welker have more cap friendly deals; but that is a function of what they were willing to sign up for. They have both had opportunities to negotiate more and were at the time satisfied with deal they made. Welker will likely get more (well deserves) in his next extension/re-sign. But Branch was trying to resurrect his career and welker got a slot receiver pay scale. That Branch succeeded and that pats use of Welker is re-defining the position weren't FACTS before they negotiated their deals.

I would say stop worrying so much on the front office side; and focus on the are we getting productivity from Chad (football side) question.

Nice analysis, no doubt. The only thing I would question is why your chose 2009 as your random sample set, when 2010 was the yr we drafted the TE's and went to the TE heavy offense--only leaving 2 WR's on the majority of plays? If possible, maybe something from last yr would be a better indicator.

I get not worrying as much about the business/front office side, and agree that I/we should be focused more on the production side, but that is not how the team seems to operate. Although like I said, BB must have a plan and see it as a relevant factor and choice. Regardless, I still don't personally think he'll get too much production as a whole, but I certainly hope that I am very wrong and pleasantly surprised. It's certainly early yet, so we'll have to see.

I'm definitely willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as a fan, although the mediots will not be as friendly and willing. I think even 40 catches would be just fine, as it would top the output by Tate last yr, although at a much more expensive cost (can't seem to let that part go, so I'll have to work on it).

 

[Gumby]

I chose 2009 RANDOMLY.

i.e. I went to the back end of Reiss's post pages (page # 497) and paged forward til I found the first 2 game stats I could find. LOL.

 

[Deus Irae]

Brandon Tate went without a reception last week.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I really think people need to stop obsessing on Chad Ocho.

The offense was a runaway train last night - there are only so many balls to catch - and clearly Brady was finding excellent match-ups the whole game.

If we get to the midseason and we have games where the offense is getting shutdown and Ocho is providing zero outlet for Brady then i'll reconsider his worth to the team.

At this time he is the #3 WR on a team that heavily features 2 TE's, effectively making him a #5 WR.

As a side note he was also the victim of one of the most obvious PI's i've seen in a long time around the goalline area and got no flag.

At this time he's the #5 WR on a team that heavily features 2 TE's and 2 WR's Brady trusts implicitly. He also committed one of the more egregious penalties a 10 year veteran WR can commit, covering up the TE and causing an illegal formation penalty that wiped out the rest of his teamates excellent play on that snap... He doesn't have until mid season to figure it out. He has until someone else gets dinged up or the by week, whichever comes first. And remember, they actually have to suspend practices and give them 4-5 days off in a row during the bye week under the new CBA... Despite that, Chad would be well advised not to tweet any travel plans for the off days because the facility will remain open for those who feel the need to just chill in the film room...

 

[Sicilian]

Another thing to consider when talking about Moss' first year here and trying to compare it to Ocho. That year, the receiving corp was almost completely changed out. Gaffney was the only holdover, and he wasn't going to be the feature receiver any time soon. Brady also didn't have the tight ends he has today, not even close.

So in 2007, you've got a BUNCH of new faces trying to develop a scheme (which is based primarily on throwing to the WR), plus a younger and much more talented player coming in (Moss) and you get a huge year.

In 2011, you've got ONE new face trying to beat out players that know the system and are younger and still very talented, in a scheme that features a greater emphasis on the running game and two TE sets.

The situations are completely different.