AFC Playoff Scenarios

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

AFC EAST:
The whole division is in playoff contention!

The New England Patriots (9-4) can win their fourth consecutive division championship this week, which can tie Indianapolis (if they also do so this year) for the longest active such streak. The Pats host Houston on Sunday, then finish the season with two road games. New England lost its first road game of the year last week (in Miami), its first shutout (21-0) since 2003.

"We're 9-4," says Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. "There are a lot of teams who would like to have that record. We'll be judged by the body of our work."

The Patriots this Sunday can clinch the AFC East with:

1. NE win + NYJ loss or tie, OR
2. NE tie + NYJ loss.

The New York Jets (7-6), Buffalo Bills (6-7) and Miami Dolphins (6-7) -- with the last two on 3-1 streaks -- are still in playoff contention but cannot clinch a berth this week.

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AFC NORTH:
The Baltimore Ravens (10-3) have a two-game lead on the streaking Cincinnati Bengals (8-5 and winners of four in a row) and can clinch their first division title since 2003 on Sunday when they host AFC North rival Cleveland.

The Ravens have won six of their past seven, with a good amount of the credit due to their dominating defense. Baltimore has surrendered a league-low 170 points. "You always want to play your best football in December," says Ravens LB Bart Scott. "They don't hand out too many trophies in the first half of the year."

The Ravens can take the AFC North crown this week with:

1. BAL win + CIN loss or tie, OR
2. BAL tie + CIN loss.

Baltimore can clinch a playoff berth with:

1. BAL win or tie, OR
2. CIN loss or tie + BAL clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over NYJ, OR
3. DEN loss or tie + BAL clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over NYJ, OR
4. NYJ loss or tie + CIN loss or tie, OR
5. NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie, OR
6. NE loss + CIN loss or tie + JAX loss, OR
7. NE loss + DEN loss or tie + JAX loss.

Strength of victory: The season-ending won-lost-tied percentage of all opponents a team has defeated.

Cincinnati and the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7) are still in playoff contention but cannot clinch a berth this week. Cleveland has been eliminated.

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AFC SOUTH:
A two-game separation here also, with one team smarting from last week's meeting with the other.

The Indianapolis Colts (10-3) can win their fourth successive division championship Monday night against Cincinnati. They come off a 44-17 loss to the AFC South second-place Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5), therefore splitting the season series.

"We need a convincing win where we can get our confidence and swagger back," says Colts LB Cato June. A win would give Indianapolis at least a playoff berth and tie head coach Tony Dungy with Tom Landry (1966-73) and Chuck Noll (1972-79) for the second-most consecutive playoff berths in history -- eight, behind Landry's nine from 1975-83.

The Colts win the division with: 1. JAX loss, OR
2. IND win or tie + JAX tie.

Indianapolis clinches its fifth playoff berth in a row with:

1. IND win or tie, OR
2. DEN loss or tie.

The Jaguars -- winners of three of their past four and seeded sixth right now in the AFC -- and Tennessee Titans (6-7) are still in playoff contention but cannot clinch a berth this week. Houston has been eliminated.

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AFC WEST:
One goal down, another one reachable Sunday night. That's the mission of the San Diego Chargers (11-2), the top-ranked team in the AFC. The Bolts won the division last week, their second crown in three years, and can earn a first-round bye this week.

Coupled with those possibilities is Chargers wunderkind RB LaDainian Tomlinson possibly breaking another revered NFL record. Last week, Tomlinson established the league mark for season TDs with 29. Sunday night he can surpass an NFL record that has stood for 46 years -- most total points scored in a season. Green Bay Packers Pro Football Hall of Fame RB Paul Hornung registered 176 points in 1960. Tomlinson enters Week 15 with 174 points.

With all the Tomlinson fireworks, the Chargers this week can secure a first-round bye with:

1. SD win + IND loss.

The Denver Broncos (7-6) and Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) are still in contention but cannot secure a playoff berth this week. Oakland has been eliminated.
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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9867502

 

[PatsDeb]

Thanks for the post. If we win this week are Miami and Buffalo eliminated (b/c we cannot have any more than 6 losses)?

 

[nukin]

AFC EAST:
The whole division is in playoff contention!

The New England Patriots (9-4) can win their fourth consecutive division championship this week, which can tie Indianapolis (if they also do so this year) for the longest active such streak. The Pats host Houston on Sunday, then finish the season with two road games. New England lost its first road game of the year last week (in Miami), its first shutout (21-0) since 2003.

"We're 9-4," says Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. "There are a lot of teams who would like to have that record. We'll be judged by the body of our work."

The Patriots this Sunday can clinch the AFC East with:

1. NE win + NYJ loss or tie, OR
2. NE tie + NYJ loss.

The New York Jets (7-6), Buffalo Bills (6-7) and Miami Dolphins (6-7) -- with the last two on 3-1 streaks -- are still in playoff contention but cannot clinch a berth this week.

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AFC NORTH:
The Baltimore Ravens (10-3) have a two-game lead on the streaking Cincinnati Bengals (8-5 and winners of four in a row) and can clinch their first division title since 2003 on Sunday when they host AFC North rival Cleveland.

The Ravens have won six of their past seven, with a good amount of the credit due to their dominating defense. Baltimore has surrendered a league-low 170 points. "You always want to play your best football in December," says Ravens LB Bart Scott. "They don't hand out too many trophies in the first half of the year."

The Ravens can take the AFC North crown this week with:

1. BAL win + CIN loss or tie, OR
2. BAL tie + CIN loss.

Baltimore can clinch a playoff berth with:

1. BAL win or tie, OR
2. CIN loss or tie + BAL clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over NYJ, OR
3. DEN loss or tie + BAL clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over NYJ, OR
4. NYJ loss or tie + CIN loss or tie, OR
5. NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie, OR
6. NE loss + CIN loss or tie + JAX loss, OR
7. NE loss + DEN loss or tie + JAX loss.

Strength of victory: The season-ending won-lost-tied percentage of all opponents a team has defeated.

Cincinnati and the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7) are still in playoff contention but cannot clinch a berth this week. Cleveland has been eliminated.

---------------------------------------------------
AFC SOUTH:
A two-game separation here also, with one team smarting from last week's meeting with the other.

The Indianapolis Colts (10-3) can win their fourth successive division championship Monday night against Cincinnati. They come off a 44-17 loss to the AFC South second-place Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5), therefore splitting the season series.

"We need a convincing win where we can get our confidence and swagger back," says Colts LB Cato June. A win would give Indianapolis at least a playoff berth and tie head coach Tony Dungy with Tom Landry (1966-73) and Chuck Noll (1972-79) for the second-most consecutive playoff berths in history -- eight, behind Landry's nine from 1975-83.

The Colts win the division with: 1. JAX loss, OR
2. IND win or tie + JAX tie.

Indianapolis clinches its fifth playoff berth in a row with:

1. IND win or tie, OR
2. DEN loss or tie.

The Jaguars -- winners of three of their past four and seeded sixth right now in the AFC -- and Tennessee Titans (6-7) are still in playoff contention but cannot clinch a berth this week. Houston has been eliminated.

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AFC WEST:
One goal down, another one reachable Sunday night. That's the mission of the San Diego Chargers (11-2), the top-ranked team in the AFC. The Bolts won the division last week, their second crown in three years, and can earn a first-round bye this week.

Coupled with those possibilities is Chargers wunderkind RB LaDainian Tomlinson possibly breaking another revered NFL record. Last week, Tomlinson established the league mark for season TDs with 29. Sunday night he can surpass an NFL record that has stood for 46 years -- most total points scored in a season. Green Bay Packers Pro Football Hall of Fame RB Paul Hornung registered 176 points in 1960. Tomlinson enters Week 15 with 174 points.

With all the Tomlinson fireworks, the Chargers this week can secure a first-round bye with:

1. SD win + IND loss.

The Denver Broncos (7-6) and Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) are still in contention but cannot secure a playoff berth this week. Oakland has been eliminated.
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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9867502

good post.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Thanks for the post. If we win this week are Miami and Buffalo eliminated (b/c we cannot have any more than 6 losses)?

Yes that would follow. Buffalo and Miami would also be eliminated on a Pat's tie.

 

[allworldrussfrancis]

I haven't fully researched this yet but I am curious as to the scenarios in which we could still get a first-round bye. I know they are limited, but we would have to leap-frog 2 of the three teams in front of us. At a minimum, the Pats would have to win out.

Assuming they do that (and its a big assumption), they would be 12-4 with an 8-4 conference record. In that event, I see their prospects as still very limited but lets follow it through:

1. San Diego - to move beyond SD, I believe SD would have to lose all three of its remianing games due to their superior conference record (it can be no worse than 9-3).

2. Indy - Indy would have to lose 2 out of its final 3 games to finish 11-5. if they go 2-1 down the stretch, we have the same record but lose the head-to-head and conference record tie-breakers.

3. Baltimore - would also have to lose two out of three for us to pass them as they would win the conference record tie-breaker in the event of a tie.

So - in order to get a first-round bye, its looks the Pats have to win all three of their remaining games and two of the following must occur (SD loses all three, Indy loses at least 2 and Baltimore loses at least 2).

 

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

I haven't fully researched this yet but I am curious as to the scenarios in which we could still get a first-round bye. I know they are limited, but we would have to leap-frog 2 of the three teams in front of us. At a minimum, the Pats would have to win out.

Assuming they do that (and its a big assumption), they would be 12-4 with an 8-4 conference record. In that event, I see their prospects as still very limited but lets follow it through:

1. San Diego - to move beyond SD, I believe SD would have to lose all three of its remianing games due to their superior conference record (it can be no worse than 9-3).

2. Indy - Indy would have to lose 2 out of its final 3 games to finish 11-5. if they go 2-1 down the stretch, we have the same record but lose the head-to-head and conference record tie-breakers.

3. Baltimore - would also have to lose two out of three for us to pass them as they would win the conference record tie-breaker in the event of a tie.

So - in order to get a first-round bye, its looks the Pats have to win all three of their remaining games and two of the following must occur (SD loses all three, Indy loses at least 2 and Baltimore loses at least 2).

I have thought of this, too...

I am pretty sure San Diego can lock up a bye with a win this week, so I am turning my attention to Baltimore & Indy losing...

New England (9-4) has: Houston @ home; @ Jax; @ Tennessee.

All winnable games, really, although Jax & Titans are playing better right now...

Indy (10-3) has: Cincy @ home; @ Houston; Miami @ home.

Cincy has been playing great last four games. Indy should beat Houston, but Miami could pose some problems, although I'd feel a lto better if it were at Miami.

Baltimore (10-3) has: Cleveland @ home; @ Pittsburgh; Buffalo @ home.

Pittsburgh will be a tough game for them. Buffalo could pose a problem, but again, I wish it was at Buffalo.

Bottom line is: Pats really shot themselves in the foot with their losses this year. All AFC losses, and two of them in thier own division. Impacts all the tiebreakers.

If we could just get one of those back (preferably the Indy loss), we'd be in the driver's seat right now, or at least riding shotgun to the Chargers!

As it is, we need to make up TWO games, because we're out of all the key tiebreakers due tour conference record and head-to-head with Indy.

We'd need both Baltimore AND Indy to go 1-2 down the stretch.

Tall order, but it COULD happen!

ADPF

 

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

good post.

Thanks. I'd love to take credit for it, but I basically just cut and psted it from the following source:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9867502

 

[richpats]

The bye is so far out of reach at this point, even #3 is questionable.

I hope the Jets win against Minny because I want to see us win the division on the field against a playoff-caliber opponent in Jacksonville. It would do tons for our team's confidence to go into their house and win.

 

[A.C Vegas]

Are you Drunk I don't care when or how we win the divison just as long as it is won.

 

[Digger44]

Armen you tricky devil you. None of this can be true. mcbee already pointed out that we lost the division to the Jets and missed the playoffs. Jacky pointed out that this years was over weeks ago. Silly silly Armen. you shouldn't mislead the board like this. It doesn't matter if we are 9-4.

 

[richpats]

Are you Drunk I don't care when or how we win the divison just as long as it is won.

Not drunk, about to be though

I just want the Jags game to mean something for both sides.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The bye is so far out of reach at this point, even #3 is questionable.

I hope the Jets win against Minny because I want to see us win the division on the field against a playoff-caliber opponent in Jacksonville. It would do tons for our team's confidence to go into their house and win.

Not me.

I want the AFCE decided so the Pats can elect to use a week for R&R ( just like a bye) before hosting a WC at Foxboro.

The AFCC championship would be the game I'd like to see with the Bolts and Pats in San Diego because I consider that the REAL Super Bowl between the two BEST clubs in the league. Both have a good O and D, while Baltimore is all D and Indy is all O.

To get that I think the Pats would have to finish third and have the 2nd upset or finish fourth and have the 2nd and 3rd upset in the WC round. I think its unlikely to finish 2nd seed now.

 

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

As much as I hate them, I guess we're close enough to the close of the season to do a "if the playoffs started today" analysis...

I think I have this right based on tiebreakers. Someone please correct me (as if I had to ask) if I'm wrong!

Round 1:

San Diego (11-2) and Baltimore (10-3) would get byes based on Division Tie-Breaker #2 below...

Jacksonville (8-5) would play @ Indianapolis (10-3)
Cincinnati (8-5) would visit New England (9-4)

Assuming both home teams won in round 1...

Round 2:

New England (10-4) @ San Diego (11-2)
Indianapolis (11-3) @ Baltimore (10-3)

The AFCC game I would like out of those would be:

New England (11-4) @ Baltimore (11-3)




For Division ties:
1. Head-to-head
2. Best PCT in games within division
3. Best PCT in common games

For Wild-Card ties (2 Clubs):
1. Head-to-head
2. Best PCT in games within conference
3. Best PCT in common games, min. of four

 

[JR4]

Thanks for the post. If we win this week are Miami and Buffalo eliminated (b/c we cannot have any more than 6 losses)?

I can see Bills and Fins being eliminated as far as Divison Chanps but
are they eliminated as wild cards also?

 

[mgcolby]

I can see Bills and Fins being eliminated as far as Divison Chanps but
are they eliminated as wild cards also?

Nope. They still have a shot.

 

[mgcolby]

For my own selfish reasons I am hoping that NE ends up in Baltimore, preferably in the Divisional round. I live about an hour and a half away.

The perfect scenario for me would be:

Indy losing two of its final three. Finishing 4th
NE winning out and finishing 3rd.

Wild Card:
SD Bye
Bal Bye

Jax @ NE - NE win
Cincy @ Indy - Cincy win

Divisional Round
NE @ Bal - NE win
Cincy @ SD - Cincy win

AFCC
Cincy @ NE

This way I get to see the Pats play in Baltimore and then they can host the AFCC game.

 

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

For my own selfish reasons I am hoping that NE ends up in Baltimore, preferably in the Divisional round. I live about an hour and a half away.

The perfect scenario for me would be:

Indy losing two of its final three. Finishing 4th
NE winning out and finishing 3rd.

Wild Card:
SD Bye
Bal Bye

Jax @ NE - NE win
Cincy @ Indy - Cincy win

Divisional Round
NE @ Bal - NE win
Cincy @ SD - Cincy win

AFCC
Cincy @ NE

This way I get to see the Pats play in Baltimore and then they can host the AFCC game.

Are you in Virginia?

 

[mgcolby]

Are you in Virginia?

Yeah, Stafford. You?

 

[mgcolby]

OK, I was apparently incorrect in believing that a Pats win this Sunday clinches the division.

However, I would like to know...

If the Pats win Sunday, and lose the remaining two games, they wiull finish at 10-6.

If ther Jets win out, they will finish at 10-6.

My understandng is that the Pats and Jets will be tied with the same division records at 4-2, but the Pats will have a better conference record at 6-4, while the Jets are now at 5-5 in the AFC. Beating Houston on SUnday moves the Pats to 6-4 in the conference.

That being the case, wouldnt the Pats win the tiebreaker?

Common opponents is the 3rd tie breaker. Conference record is the 4th.