ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady is #1

[BradyFTW!]

NFL -- Tom Brady led NFL in QBR for 2010 season - ESPN

A quick primer on the fundamentals of Total Quarterback Rating:

Scoring: 0-100, from low to high. An average QB would be at 50.
Win Probability: All QB plays are scored based on how much they contribute to a win. By determining expected point totals for almost any situation, Total QBR is able to apply points to a quarterback based on every type of play he would be involved in.
Dividing Credit: Total QBR factors in such things as overthrows, underthrows, yards after the catch and more to accurately determine how much a QB contributes to each play.
Clutch Index: How critical a certain play is based on when it happens in a game is factored into the score.

If you look at the actual scoring, Brady was #1 in 2010 by a mile. It isn't even remotely close: Peyton is #2, followed by Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Michael Vick to round out the top 5.

 

[Buchanty]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

Interesting - Sanchez was 47.4, which if I read the article correctly is less than average, but I think I already knew that.

 

[BradyManny]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

The folks at PFF probably just soiled their pants reading this. The formula for how ESPN comes about the new passer rating takes into account a lot of things they allegedly take into account - yet comes to a very different conclusion.

Probably b/c ESPN relied on FootballOutsiders and AdvancedNFLStats.com and not the hacks at PFF.

 

[PatsWSB47]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

Farvre had a good year

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

Notice that the gap between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning is 6.5 points.

The difference between Peyton and #9 on the list is 6.3 points.



Tom

(big gap)
(yes, still bigger)
(gap just goes on and on...)

Peyton and 7 other guys

Then there's a continuous slide down until you reach the Jimmy Clausens, Derrick Andersons, and Brett Favres of the football world, i.e. the suckiest of the sucking QBs.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

The folks at PFF probably just soiled their pants reading this. The formula for how ESPN comes about the new passer rating takes into account a lot of things they allegedly take into account - yet comes to a very different conclusion.

Probably b/c ESPN relied on FootballOutsiders and AdvancedNFLStats.com and not the hacks at PFF.

Yeah, it really is funny how the rankings suddenly reflect common sense (with surprises here and there) when you start dealing with legitimate sources. Crazy coincidence, I'm sure.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

I thought they were going to have a show on this some time tonight?

It should be interesting to hear about it, but some of this seems fairly subjective to me and I wonder how well they measure the little things like looking off the safety, getting LBs to bite on play action fakes, ... I guess it becomes implied in a successful outcome?

 

[VJCPatriot]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

Tom Brady = MVP. Yeah, it becomes even more obvious when you account for all the factors that contribute to winning which is scoring points. Manning a distant 2nd. Then the notable qbs like rodgers, brees, rivers, etc. Then you have Cassel at above average, Sanchez below average, then the rest of the suck that are the medicore to bad QBs in the NFL. Just shows you how important the QB position is to NFL success. Look at the top rated QBs and you can pretty much tell which are the better teams in the league.

 

[Kid~Brady]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

And his number of "action plays" was severely smaller than that of Peytons... but I guess more plays means a better chance of that percentage dropping.

 

[Amnorix]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

Glad to see someone try to come up with something better. The usual QB Rating system is completely garbage.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

And his number of "action plays" was severely smaller than that of Peytons... but I guess more plays means a better chance of that percentage dropping.

Brady's rating is so high because he had a 9:1 TD/INT ratio.

 

[DarrylS]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

At first glance this rating system is too subjective..

 

[Observer]

Re: ESPN is unveiling a new QB statistic to replace passer rating: naturally, Brady i

This rating system is too complicated. Just give me the following:
1. Wins
2. Touchdowns scored
3. Interceptions thrown
4. Passing yardage

That covers what the QB is supposed to accomplish.

There is no statistic in the world, no matter how complex, that can disentangle a QB's performance from that of the rest of the team which is what this ESPN rating seems to want to accomplish.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

OT: ESPN's Total QBR

Did anyone catch the show ESPN aired on Total QBR (or QBR). I missed most of the official explanation and caught some of the tail end of it where they were trying to compare Manning and Brady's last 3 seasons QBR.

List of 100 entries for QBR

I know they've gotthe data from 2008 onward so that only accounted for 2 seasons for Brady. It seems they went back to pull the 2007 info for Brady to make the 3 year comparison where Manning still came edged out brady with a 3 year average off 77+ to brady's 75+ (both averages being in the MVP range they had assigned).

While including Brady's 2007 seems unfair to Manning as they didn't include his 2004 record setting season (well until 2007 ), but they did include 2009 when Brady was technically recovering from his ACL injury which takes a couple years. If the math was a straight average, it would seem that Brady had to have a QBR of 86+ to net the 75+ average.

My question (I know finally) about QBR is, Does it make it more favorable for a team that is more heavily loaded on offense where the defense gives up more points? If there is a clutch factor, certainly scored of 31-28 have more clutch opportunities than a score of 31-14. Wouldn't this seem a little imbalanced or did they take this into effect? Did those touchdowns that put you over the opponents score come out as clutch (even if the other team still have 0 points at the time)?

One thing that often seems to get looked at is total cap $ spent on offense/defense? if a team is spending 60% of their cap on offense, shouldn't that offense be expected to score more points and the defense give up more points? Does that get factored in?

 

[Sivy]

Re: OT: ESPN's Total QBR

I love it when Brady is the best..but this qbr is kind of silly.

 

[spacecrime]

Re: OT: ESPN's Total QBR

I love it when Brady is the best..but this qbr is kind of silly.

I didn't want to post the whole list because it is on ESPN Insider, but a small section of the rating has Jamarcus Russell better than a few QBs I don't think he is better than (in the scale, 50 is average, 100 is perfect, large # is # of plays, small # is QBR):

83 2008 JaMarcus Russell OAK 472 34.5
84 2009 Brady Quinn CLE 321 33.2
85 2008 Marc Bulger STL 556 33.0
86 2009 Matthew Stafford DET 460 32.9
87 2009 Marc Bulger STL 309 31.9
88 2009 Kerry Collins TEN 256 31.5
89 2009 Mark Sanchez NYJ 473 30.9
90 2008 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 259 30.9
91 2009 Jake Delhomme CAR 396 30.5
92 2009 Matt Cassel KC 658 30.2
93 2009 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 310 29.9
94 2008 Derek Anderson CLE 366 29.6
95 2009 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 592 26.7
96 2010 Brett Favre MIN 459 25.8

edit: apologize for the formatting. I tried to make it columns but forum software ignores my spaces

 

[37Harrison]

Re: OT: ESPN's Total QBR

I didn't want to post the whole list because it is on ESPN Insider, but a small section of the rating has Jamarcus Russell better than a few QBs I don't think he is better than (in the scale, 50 is average, 100 is perfect, large # is # of plays, small # is QBR):

83 2008 JaMarcus Russell OAK 472 34.5
84 2009 Brady Quinn CLE 321 33.2
85 2008 Marc Bulger STL 556 33.0
86 2009 Matthew Stafford DET 460 32.9
87 2009 Marc Bulger STL 309 31.9
88 2009 Kerry Collins TEN 256 31.5
89 2009 Mark Sanchez NYJ 473 30.9
90 2008 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 259 30.9
91 2009 Jake Delhomme CAR 396 30.5
92 2009 Matt Cassel KC 658 30.2
93 2009 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 310 29.9
94 2008 Derek Anderson CLE 366 29.6
95 2009 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 592 26.7
96 2010 Brett Favre MIN 459 25.8

edit: apologize for the formatting. I tried to make it columns but forum software ignores my spaces

Well I believe this shows that rating system to be utterly useless.

 

[Tunescribe]

Re: OT: ESPN's Total QBR

I love it when Brady is the best..but this qbr is kind of silly.

Agreed. I watched some of it and about five minutes in was thinking, "OK, what's the point?"

 

[patsfan-1982]

Re: OT: ESPN's Total QBR

the guy that made this system must have been very bord we all know Brady and manning are the two best QB's i dont need a rateing system to tell me that

 

[Mainefan]

Re: OT: ESPN's Total QBR

So much of this system is subjective that it's practically useless. And almost as complicated as e=mc2. I'd prefer to continue to gripe about the passer rating.