My ideal, but realistic free agency

[patsfaninpa]

I'd love to keep Matt Light. But, KC has 30m to spend. And Scott Pioli knows all about Matt. However, Matt did start as a rookie in 2001. And, Nate Solder can do the same this year. Mankins started as a rookie in 2005. And, Dan Koppen did in 2003. Not the end of the world if we lose Light. I'm curious to see what vets get released. Honestly, I'd rather have Willis McGahee than K. Faulk. I want a bigger goal line back, I feel Woodhead and Vereen make Faulk's skill set expendable.

 

[wcpatsfan]

Ok, here is what I am hoping for in free agency. I am trying to be realistic and not predicting things that will never happen like the Pats signing Aso, Holmes, or any other big name free agent:

1.) Sign Mathias Kiwanuka (although I think the Pats are more likely signing Matt Roth)
2.) Resign Brandon McGowan, Jarrad Page, and Matt Light - All would be short term deals. I think Light will take a hometown discount, but the Pats will have to be somewhat competitive. He is the least likely to return of the three.
3.) Sign James Jones - versatile WR who can run any route and won't be commanding top dollar since I don't think Belichick will spend the money to get one of the top guys like Holmes, Rice, or Floyd. This guy has the chance to really breakout.
4.) Sign Marcus Spears - The guy was better under Parcells' system than Wade Phillips'. Has been a solid player, but really fell short of his first round status. Will come at a bargain. The Pats may be all set at DE though.

Wow, got a lot to take issue with here (sorry):

1. Not sure signing Kiwanuka is "realistic". Assuming the guy's neck is okay, I would think that he would garner quite a bit of interest, especially considering how many teams out there HAVE to spend around $30 million just to get to the cap floor. On the other hand maybe there isn't much interest in Kiwanuka because of his neck injury. In that case the Pats would have to be satisfied that he is OK even though other teams believe he may not be. Either way I don't see it happening.

2. Why re-sign Page AND McGowan? Seems kind of redundant. I don't see the argument for bringing back McGowan since he hasn't done much save for the first half of the '09 season. As for Matt Light--why would he come back at all, much less at a home town discount? The Pats already drafted his replacement. Light would be much smarter to go to a team like the Falcons where he could get a couple more years of good money before he's put out to pasture.

3. James Jones? Dude has a SERIOUS case of the dropsies. The Pats need sure-handed receivers that excel at running routes. Jones fails on both fronts. Yes he's athletic and yes he will come up with some great catches, but he is maddeningly inconsistent.

 

[JSn]

Sanders is more valuable to us than anyone else. With the shortened off-season and status-quo teams having the best odds at starting hot, I think he stays.

 

[captain stone]

Matt Light refused the contract we offered him pre lockout.

Hell no to James Jones

Also dont think we have a chance at Roth or Kiwi.

Marcus Spears is crap.

Why don't we have a chance at Roth?

 

[DaBruinz]

Matt Light refused the contract we offered him pre lockout.

Hell no to James Jones

Also dont think we have a chance at Roth or Kiwi.

Marcus Spears is crap.

Light refused the contract because he was adamant about testing the free agency waters. Which is well within his right.

I don't see the Pats signing a WR beyond UDFAs unless they trade Welker or Edelman. And, I just don't see that. But, why are you against James Jones, other than his hands?

I think that Kiwanuka is a very good chance.

I have to disagree with your assessment of Spears. I think that Spears would be as good as any RDE that the Pats have had since they traded Seymour. THough, Spears is coming off injury. He won't be Seymour, but he'd solidify the position and should come relatively inexpensive since he is coming back from injury.

 

[roguepatriot]

I would add Roth. Think he would fit a need and would be worth the risk if its not for inflated early FA prices.

Wouldn't be surprised for BB to take another flier on Derrick Mason. But he might also turn him down to stay for less money for the Ravens (because his wife told him to) again.

 

[DarrylS]

What worries me about the "right price" rhetoric, is that that number may become inflated due to teams having to spend 90% of their cap space.. so teams like Tampa Bay and Washington who have mucho to spend, may spend mucho on some of these guys we like...

It seems to be more of a crap shoot than ever, Matt Light might find the numbers he is looking for on another team. Hometown discount sounds nice, but this is his last big payday.

 

[Gumby]

Did a quick look at the Scouts table (thanks for link it was useful).


I just filtered guys out based on age, and then downgraded based on size or if not a UFA and come up with a limited # of candidates (2 each) that would interest Pats for OLB or WR.


wR: Houshmandzadeh or Braylon Edwards
(with a subjective upgrade to Stallworth based on being ex-pat he could overcome his 6-0 height and be included).


OLB: Roth or Leber.

(Note Kiwanuka is considered a DE not a OLB and still could be considered for Pats purposes except he is also a RFA not a UFA. So he is off my quickee list.) [ Other DEs that could be considered based on FA status, age, size (unknown skill sets ) : Marcus Spears, Jason Babin, Raheem Brock, & Dave Ball ]


So if between those 4 guys I guess I go Houshmandzadeh and Roth.

 

[DaBruinz]

He was cut because he was due a huge roster bonus and he wasn't worth the money he was being offered. I am not advocating getting him back because his role did diminish over the season in 2007, but his familiarity to the playbook was not why he was cut.

Rob - Stallworth's lack of familiarity with the playbook is one of the reasons that Jabar Gaffney took the #3 WR spot from him and basically relegated Stallworth to the bench for the last quarter of the season.

You add that to the guy that Stallworth killed and he's anathema to the Patriots..

 

[DaBruinz]

Did a quick look at the Scouts table (thanks for link it was useful).

<p> I just filtered guys out based on age, and then downgraded based on size or if not a UFA and come up with a limited # of candidates (2 each) that would interest Pats for OLB or WR.
<p>
WR: Houshmandzadeh or Braylon Edwards
(with a subjective upgrade to Stallworth based on being ex-pat he could overcome his 6-0 height and be included).
<p>
OLB: Roth or Leber.
<p>
(Note Kiwanuka is considered a DE not a OLB and still could be considered for Pats purposes except he is also a RFA not a UFA. So he is off my quickee list.) [ Other DEs that could be considered based on FA status, age, size (unknown skill sets ) : Marcus Spears, Jason Babin, Raheem Brock, & Dave Ball ]

So if between those 4 guys I guess I go Houshmandzadeh and Roth.

Kiwanuka is a UFA, not an RFA thanks to the new CBA. And though he's listed as a DE, he'd be a 3-4 OLB for the Pats.

Leber is an ILB in s 3-4 system.

 

[Rob0729]

Wow, got a lot to take issue with here (sorry):

1. Not sure signing Kiwanuka is "realistic". Assuming the guy's neck is okay, I would think that he would garner quite a bit of interest, especially considering how many teams out there HAVE to spend around $30 million just to get to the cap floor. On the other hand maybe there isn't much interest in Kiwanuka because of his neck injury. In that case the Pats would have to be satisfied that he is OK even though other teams believe he may not be. Either way I don't see it happening.

I still think the fans rate Kiwanuka a higher free agent than the media or teams do. When he was tagged as a RFA, he only got a 2nd round tender. If the Giants thought he was this highly sought out player, they would have given him a first round tender to either keep him or try to shop him.

2. Why re-sign Page AND McGowan? Seems kind of redundant. I don't see the argument for bringing back McGowan since he hasn't done much save for the first half of the '09 season. As for Matt Light--why would he come back at all, much less at a home town discount? The Pats already drafted his replacement. Light would be much smarter to go to a team like the Falcons where he could get a couple more years of good money before he's put out to pasture.

McGowan missed the 2010 season. He would come at the veteran minimum. The two players play different positions. Page is a strong safety and McGowan is a free safety. Page would back up/rotate with Chung and McGowan would back up Meriweather.

As for Light, there are plenty of reasons why he would come here. He only has one or two years left in his career. He has spent his entire career here. He has a family with young children. He may be happy to finish out his career here since he has a life here rather than become a journeyman to uproot his family for a year or two.

Yes, the Pats did draft Solder, but is he going to ready to start? I think most rookies are going to struggle.

3. James Jones? Dude has a SERIOUS case of the dropsies. The Pats need sure-handed receivers that excel at running routes. Jones fails on both fronts. Yes he's athletic and yes he will come up with some great catches, but he is maddeningly inconsistent.

Jones' drops have been overblown from last year. From what I can see, he had 6 drops in 87 (6.9%) passes thrown in his direction last year. That is better than Welker (13 drops in 123 passes thrown his way or 10.6%), Brandon Tate (5 drops in 46 passes or 10.9%), or Aaron Hernandez (7 drops in 64 passes his way or 10.9%). His drops have been overstated because it has been a problem in the past and he had a dropped TD pass in the Super Bowl.

Below is an article with a list of the top pass droppers. Percentage-wise, he was 24th in the league in terms of dropped passes.

http://www.scoresreport.com/2011/03/07/which-wideouts-had-the-worst-hands-in-2010/

Jones is a very good route runner though.

 

[Rob0729]

One receiver I did forget that I might want as an alternative is Mike Sims-Walker. The guy's stock is way down because the Jags had a god-awful passing offense and them being a run first team with MJD. If the Pats are truly looking for a deep threat, he might foot the bill as a value free agent with a lot of upside. He his knock is he is not much of a route runner, but he is a good straight-line threat.

 

[IllegalContact]

1) I'll take roth over kiwanuka.....
2) I am intrigued by what josh barrett may bring......he's got rodney size although he gets hurt as much as bob sanders.
3) I'd like the pats to look into malcolm floyd
4) spears has spent most of his time working in a 1 gap 3-4.....it may take him some time to be effective here

 

[DaBruinz]

1) I'll take roth over kiwanuka.....
2) I am intrigued by what josh barrett may bring......he's got rodney size although he gets hurt as much as bob sanders.
3) I'd like the pats to look into malcolm floyd
4) spears has spent most of his time working in a 1 gap 3-4.....it may take him some time to be effective here

1) The Pats had a chance at Roth when he was cut mid-season by the Phins. I believe they passed on him then. I don't believe that Roth is all that bright (spitting incident with the Pats)

2) Barrett is intriguing. Just wish he could stay healthy, as you mentions. Tarpanian could also be interesting.

3) I thought about Floyd, but then saw that he's 29. Which means he's only got 2-3 more years.

4) Spears spent his 1st two seasons in a 2 Gap system under Parcells. And he was better there than in the Phillips 1 Gap. *shrug*

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Just looked at the top 100 FA list again and I'm still coming away unimpressed. Forget about difference makers, to me there's hardly more than a dozen above average players on that list would improve the Pats and certainly not at the top dollar some pretty average dudes will get.

Ike Taylor's near the top 1o of all FA's? That might say it all. Taylor's not a bum, he'd be a slight improvement over Arrington but at what price?

If Sanders is let go/traded and Page doesn't come back, the Pats might get Melvin Bullitt on the cheap. He would help as much or more than Sanders probably cost less and could be Meriweather's replacement since I doubt the Pat's will give him big $$ to stay next year. ] Plus, taking a good player they really need away from Indy is always a good thing.

And the number of good/decent FA guards makes me wonder if the Pats will really pay Mankins $10m. They could score a pretty good player at a third or less than Mankins price to keep the spot warm for Cannon. I love Mankins but unless they get him down to a better number I think he's trade bait.

I said it another thread - Mankins for Woodley would really help both the Pats and Steelers. What guts it would take to make such a move...

 

[IllegalContact]

1) The Pats had a chance at Roth when he was cut mid-season by the Phins. I believe they passed on him then. I don't believe that Roth is all that bright (spitting incident with the Pats)

2) Barrett is intriguing. Just wish he could stay healthy, as you mentions. Tarpanian could also be interesting.

3) I thought about Floyd, but then saw that he's 29. Which means he's only got 2-3 more years.

4) Spears spent his 1st two seasons in a 2 Gap system under Parcells. And he was better there than in the Phillips 1 Gap. *shrug*

true on roth, but I would still take him over kiwanuka

floyd would give the pats time to figure for the future.....if tate and price are going to be anything and if not, have the time to go out and develop someone new.

the way I see it, the pats just need someone to take the snaps that tate/price do not achieve to get. I'm not sure I want someone who will guarantee that those guys sit on the bench.....then they will turn into wasted picks

spears is also a left side guy, and we have those, especially with warren returning.

 

[Gumby]

DaB,

Thanks for correction on FA status. I guess I can't take the scouts website at face value.

I did a quick look at career stats on the 3 OLBs mentioned and 2 WRs I mentioned and based on that...

I know you say Leber is more an ILB, but he was listed as OLB and at 6-3 244 has enough size to play OLB (? or not?). He has as good a track record of getting sacks and is much more flexible for providing coverage. Of 4 passes defensed he has 1 Int and although no sacks 2 FFs. He was getting pressure or takeaways.
I think I like him now a bit better than Roth (purely stats based).

The Kiwanuka guy has only started more than 9 games once in 5 years (2008) and although he had 4 sacks and 1 FF in 2010 in only 3 games; he doesn't show that much better stats prior to his injury than Leber/Roth.

So I tend right now toward Leber if he could in fact play OLB as well as ILB. Otherwise Roth.

As far as WRs: Edwards clearly in my mind has better stats (at least in deep threat - avg # yds etc); but Housh has been a more consistent threat (70-100 recs a year from 2004-2009) and I think our offense is better off with a consistent wr than a deep strike wonder (lets not go down the Moss road again).

So i still think Housh is the guy. [from this list - barring Chad showing up on the available

 

[SeanBruschi54]

Just looked at the top 100 FA list again and I'm still coming away unimpressed. Forget about difference makers, to me there's hardly more than a dozen above average players on that list would improve the Pats and certainly not at the top dollar some pretty average dudes will get.

Ike Taylor's near the top 1o of all FA's? That might say it all. Taylor's not a bum, he'd be a slight improvement over Arrington but at what price?

If Sanders is let go/traded and Page doesn't come back, the Pats might get Melvin Bullitt on the cheap. He would help as much or more than Sanders probably cost less and could be Meriweather's replacement since I doubt the Pat's will give him big $$ to stay next year. ] Plus, taking a good player they really need away from Indy is always a good thing.

And the number of good/decent FA guards makes me wonder if the Pats will really pay Mankins $10m. They could score a pretty good player at a third or less than Mankins price to keep the spot warm for Cannon. I love Mankins but unless they get him down to a better number I think he's trade bait.

I said it another thread - Mankins for Woodley would really help both the Pats and Steelers. What guts it would take to make such a move...

Wait what? Ike Taylor is no scrub, i dont know if you watch the Steelers games but hes pretty damn good. Very good.

Woodley for Mankins benefits the steelers how?

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Wait what? Ike Taylor is no scrub, i dont know if you watch the Steelers games but hes pretty damn good. Very good.

Woodley for Mankins benefits the steelers how?

I didn't say Taylor was a scrub, did you read the post? I said he'd be slight improvement over Arrington. Either way he doesn't knock my socks off especially if he's the 10th best FA out there - that's my main point.

Woodley for Mankins helps the Steelers because their OL is below average, maybe worse.

 

[Rob0729]

1) The Pats had a chance at Roth when he was cut mid-season by the Phins. I believe they passed on him then. I don't believe that Roth is all that bright (spitting incident with the Pats)

Actually, the Browns claimed Roth off of waivers before the Pats had a chance to grab him since they were higher up on the waiver claiming list. Not that the Pats would have gotten him, but they didn't have a chance.

I think Kiwanuka is a far better player. His problem is his health. Granted he seems to get hurt more when he is playing DE and he would likely play OLB in the Pats' system.