Patriots Vegas Odds

[GostkowSKI]

The website sportsbook.com already has lines out for most of the Pats regular season games as well as a few futures odds. Found some of these interesting...

Week 2: New England -4.5 vs. San Diego
Week 4: New England -4 @ Oakland
Week 5: New England -4 vs. New York Jets
Week 6: New England -7 vs. Dallas
Week 8: New England +2.5 @ Pittsburgh
Week 9: New England -6 vs. New York Giants
Week 10: New England +1.5 @ New York Jets
Week 11: New England -8.5 vs. Kansas City
Week 12: New England +1.5 @ Philadelphia
Week 13: New England -5 vs. Indianapolis

They also had the following futures odds:

To win the AFC East: New England is 5/7 odds
To win the AFC Championship: New England is 11/4 odds
To win the Super Bowl: New England is 6/1 odds

Quick primer if you're not familiar with point spreads. Anytime you see a "-" sign in front of the number, that means New England is the favorite in that game by that amount of points. Anytime it's a "+" that means they're an underdog. So for example New England is a 5 point favorite vs. Indy, but a 1.5 point underdog @ Philadelphia.

For the futures wagers you'll notice the odds look different, notably the Patriots being 5/7 favorites to win the AFC East. That one means that you'd have to wager $700 to win $500 on the Patriots winning the AFC East, and then that proportion all the way down.

 

[sbpatfan]

Only one I'm really surprised about is Pittsburgh, considering Brady has made the Steelers his ***** all but once.

 

[patriot lifer]

I might have to put money down on that Pittsburgh game. And I pretty much never gamble.

 

[Calciumee]

I might have to put money down on that Pittsburgh game. And I pretty much never gamble.

It's worth it!

I won £2.40ish on the thanksgiving game! I put £1 on beating the spread and Brady throwing over 250 yards

First bet I ever won! I was so happy

 

[GostkowSKI]

Only one I'm really surprised about is Pittsburgh, considering Brady has made the Steelers his ***** all but once.

That's exactly what jumped out at me. Brady's traditionally done very well vs. Pitt both home and away. He's 4-1 vs them in his career in the regular season and 2-0 in the playoffs.

 

[ay-yo]

I believe Odds are set based on maximizing profit from the bets placed. Perhaps they expect many people to bet on the home team in a battle of AFC supremacy.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Can't see the Pats being a 7 point favorite over the Cowboys and a bigger 8 1/2 point favorite over the Chiefs?

Didn't KC win thier division last year and Dallas missed the playoffs altogether?

Did Dallas do something since February to make thier team better than KC that I am not aware of?

 

[Boston Boxer]

Can't see the Pats being a 7 point favorite over the Cowboys and a bigger 8 1/2 point favorite over the Chiefs?

Didn't KC win thier division last year and Dallas missed the playoffs altogether?

Did Dallas do something since February to make thier team better than KC that I am not aware of?

vegas does not set the odds as to who they think will win or lose...they set the odds so people will put money down. The more money people put down on the game, the better for vegas...they always win

 

[Calciumee]

Can't see the Pats being a 7 point favorite over the Cowboys and a bigger 8 1/2 point favorite over the Chiefs?

Didn't KC win thier division last year and Dallas missed the playoffs altogether?

Did Dallas do something since February to make thier team better than KC that I am not aware of?

Because the Cowboys are most talented team in the league.... on paper

 

[BradyFTW!]

5 point favorites against Indy is a little surprising, damn.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Can't see the Pats being a 7 point favorite over the Cowboys and a bigger 8 1/2 point favorite over the Chiefs?

Didn't KC win thier division last year and Dallas missed the playoffs altogether?

Did Dallas do something since February to make thier team better than KC that I am not aware of?

It's probably because there are a ton of idiot Cowboys fans who will bet on their team no matter how bad the odds you give them are. America's team and all... I'm sure the number is out there somewhere, would be curious to see if the Cowboys have a significantly worse ATS record than average over the past few years.

 

[supafly]

It's probably because there are a ton of idiot Cowboys fans who will bet on their team no matter how bad the odds you give them are. America's team and all... I'm sure the number is out there somewhere, would be curious to see if the Cowboys have a significantly worse ATS record than average over the past few years.

Nope. Their ATS records are .500 the past 2 yrs.

Dallas was 7-9 vs the spread last yr (2010)
Dallas was 9-7 vs the spread previous (2009)

I'm guessing it's 'only' 7 pts because they made some general improvements under Jason Garrett, and they are still kind of an 'unknown' type of team heading into 2011.

7 is a nice round number, and you have to keep in mind that the 'magic' numbers for pt spreads are often 3, 4, 6, and 7. Those 4 numbers make up a good size of the percentage. It's also terribly early, so choosing "7" makes a lot of sense if you think about, at least for right now.

 

[jmt57]

Even though I will normally be accused of being a homer ten times more often than being a chicken little, my first thought was that I was slightly surprised at how much the Pats are being initially favored by; the Colts and Giants are two examples of games that I am referring to. Maybe my expectations have been tempered by hearing or reading the far too often repeated 'haven't won a playoff game since' phrase for the last six months.

However, upon thinking about it a bit further I believe it shows that a great deal of sports fans - not just Pats fans - have a very high level of respect for this team heading into the (hopefully) 2011 season. Being an odds on favorite to win the division (even when it's only a four team division) is surely a rarity, especially considering the Jets did go 11-5 and beat the Pats in the playoffs.

Apologies in advance to anyone offended by that nasty reminder.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Nope. Their ATS records are .500 the past 2 yrs.

Dallas was 7-9 vs the spread last yr (2010)
Dallas was 9-7 vs the spread previous (2009)

I'm guessing it's 'only' 7 pts because they made some general improvements under Jason Garrett, and they are still kind of an 'unknown' type of team heading into 2011.

7 is a nice round number, and you have to keep in mind that the 'magic' numbers for pt spreads are often 3, 4, 6, and 7. Those 4 numbers make up a good size of the percentage. It's also terribly early, so choosing "7" makes a lot of sense if you think about, at least for right now.

Good point, and thanks for the clarification. I almost never bet on 7 point spreads, fwiw. There are too many losing scenarios that way; would rather take a 6 point spread on a game that I'm a little less sure about, any day.

Back to PATSFANINPA's point, then, in addition to what you said I think Vegas has KC pinned as a team that will come back down to earth. Between Weis leaving and having to play a division winner's schedule, I wouldn't be surprised if that division win turns out to be a bit of a fluke. Going 10-6 against a creampuff schedule doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, really.

 

[ausbacker]

Even though I will normally be accused of being a homer ten times more often than being a chicken little, my first thought was that I was slightly surprised at how much the Pats are being initially favored by; the Colts and Giants are two examples of games that I am referring to. Maybe my expectations have been tempered by hearing or reading the far too often repeated 'haven't won a playoff game since' phrase for the last six months.

However, upon thinking about it a bit further I believe it shows that a great deal of sports fans - not just Pats fans - have a very high level of respect for this team heading into the (hopefully) 2011 season. Being an odds on favorite to win the division (even when it's only a four team division) is surely a rarity, especially considering the Jets did go 11-5 and beat the Pats in the playoffs.

Apologies in advance to anyone offended by that nasty reminder.

It's the perceived improvement that this Patriots team will undergo. People tend to forget this team has been in a total rebuild-retool mode since 2008. Couple that with the brilliance of Brady and Belichick being widely considered the best coach in all of US Professional sports and you get what you get.

As for the Steelers game, those odds are mightily attractive to everyone given history.

 

[supafly]

Good point, and thanks for the clarification. I almost never bet on 7 point spreads, fwiw. There are too many losing scenarios that way; would rather take a 6 point spread on a game that I'm a little less sure about, any day.

Back to PATSFANINPA's point, then, in addition to what you said I think Vegas has KC pinned as a team that will come back down to earth. Between Weis leaving and having to play a division winner's schedule, I wouldn't be surprised if that division win turns out to be a bit of a fluke. Going 10-6 against a creampuff schedule doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, really.

I have tried a very good 'system' (eyeroll) in where I have not given more than 3 points at any time in the past couple of years, and it seriously improved my won/loss percentage a great deal.

Just favorites of 3 or less, and all underdogs. It does limit the supposed 'blowouts' that look like easy money, but as we know a lot of times they aren't.

With the NFL having more parity now than in the past, it really helps not to have to give up too many points. I just wipe those games off of my slate, and focus on the others.

I am sure that many would argue the success factor of this method, but so far, so good...I just refuse to give more than a field goal anymore.....There's still a lot of value to underdogs, and lower point spreads.

(not saying that this is the 'right' way to go, just passing on thoughts...)

 

[supafly]

Back to PATSFANINPA's point, then, in addition to what you said I think Vegas has KC pinned as a team that will come back down to earth. Between Weis leaving and having to play a division winner's schedule, I wouldn't be surprised if that division win turns out to be a bit of a fluke. Going 10-6 against a creampuff schedule doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, really.

I think you hit it right on the head here. These reasons, combined with the overall poorer effort by KC last year vs. any team with a winning record I think. They were able to prey on the weaker sisters, and even hung in there at times against some better teams, but tell me--was that wildcard game vs. BAL not the pick of the year last year??? LOL. KC just doesn't have the 'it' factor yet, but they had a nice overall youth effort last yr. Charles is a nice guy to have as a RB, and Hali and Eric Berry look like great building foundations on the defense.

I too, am expecting them to come back down to earth, possibly even worse than we think. I could easily see a 8-8 or 7-9 record, no doubt.

 

[randomk1]

Really suprised at the pitt line...after last years game and the history of success Brady has against that team.

I honestly believe Pitt dodged a bullet when they got the Jets instead of NE.

 

[BTTA]

I don't think Philly has the mental toughness and character as a team to maintain last year's success. That's a team I'd short this year in general.

 

[supafly]

I don't think Philly has the mental toughness and character as a team to maintain last year's success. That's a team I'd short this year in general.

Lots of rumors that they will be major free agent players this yr, so we shall see. An addition (Asomaugh) or two on defense, and they could pick up where they left off and then some.