How good is San Diego, really?

[PonyExpress]

The Chargers have dynamic, superstar players. They play an exciting offensive style. They have a ferocious pass rush rush. They play in probably the best division in the NFL. They have the inside track on a 1st rd bye.... How good are they, really?

Looking at the last 7 games...

L 27-30 @ KC: fell behind 21-3, lost on last second FG.
W 38-24 vs StL
W 32-25 vs Cle: Cle has the #29 offense in the NFL, averaging 16 ppg
W 49-41 @ Cin: fell behind 28-7, came back
W 35-27 @ Den: fell behind 24-7, came back
W 21-14 vs Oak: behind 14-7, late. Benefited from officiating
W 24-21 @ Buf: ahead 17-0, let Buffalo back in.

In the last 7 games, SD has scored 32.3 ppg, given up 26.0. Over the whole season, giving up 26 ppg on defense would put the Chargers as the #30 scoring defense in the NFL.

What they do well:

Offense
They have the #2 running game in the NFL, with the fewest negative plays.
They have a top 5 3rd down percentage
They have the fewest turnovers in the NFL: 11
They score the most points
They have the ability and character to come back from big deficits
Chemistry and confidence

Defense
They have the most sacks
They force alot of fumbles and TOs.
They have one of the most intimidating defensive players in the NFL

The return of Merriman and Castillo should help the team on defense... but even with Merriman SD gave up 30 points to Damon Huard and KC, and 24 to St Louis.

Another trend is the fact the Chargers have not been playing well at home, eking out wins over Cleveland and Oakland in recent weeks. They tend to play close games, rarely winning by more than one score. They also tend to start slowly on defense and offense, relying on late comebacks often.

In conclusion, a smart, disciplined Pats team has every chance to beat SD even on the road.

 

[F0nSY]

They're goods because They've got...LaDainian Tomlison...

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Bingo.

The San Diego Chargers are as good as LaDanian Tomlinson. Stop Tomlinson, and they become okay, but not world-beaters.

Like stopping Marshall Faulk in Super Bowl 36.

We've done this before, people... do not be afraid.

PFnV

 

[patsox23]

It's possible SD is excellent and, like us, playing up or down to the level of competition. They are the team that scares me most in the NFL, at least this year.

 

[PonyExpress]

Tomlinson is a great Rb, but...

his current binge of rushing yards has come at the expense of the defensive dregs of the league.
Prior to his week 8 game against StL, many SD fans were saying that LT had lost a step and that Michael "the Burner" Turner should be taking more of his carries. Through 6 games, LT had only 473 yards on 125 carries, for a 3.8 average, facing tough defenses like Pittsburgh, Baltimore and KC. Then he hit an advantageous schedule streak...

vs StL (#31 rushing defense in the NFL , giving up 153 YPG and 5.0 YPC): 183 yards, 25 carries
vs. Cle (#30 rushing defense in the NFL, 145 YPG and 4.6 YPC): 172 yards, 18 carries
vs. Cin (#15 in the NFL, 114 YPG and 4.2 YPC): 104, 22.
vs. Den (#9 in the NFL, 103 YPG, 3.9 YPC): 105, 22.
vs. Oak (#24, 133 YPG, 4.1 YPC): 109, 19.
vs. Buf (#28, 140 YPG, 4.8 YPC) 178, 28.

IMO if the Pats reshuffled LB corps can mesh and Harrison can return for a few games of practice, Tomlinson WILL NOT beat the Pats. But turnovers and a sub-par offensive performance will beat the Pats in that game... unfortunately, inconsistent offense has been the norm recently.

 

[CheerforTom]

They're good enough to beat Denver. That's all I care as a Patriots fan.

As an NFL fan, I think they're a little overrated. Somebody's gotta be the best team in the league, and the media seems to have given them that crown for now. I think they're better than anyone in the NFC, but a few of the AFC should be able to take them. As mentioned, if LT can be neutralized I certainly wouldn't put my hopes in Rivers' hands.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I agree on the scheduling streak, but be realistic:

He's doing the kinds of things Marshall Faulk did in his prime, and Priest Holmes did for a year or two.

He's not beating a bad team for one to two TDs, he's beating them for three to four.

Recognize him for what he is: the best at his position today, and one of the best of record (especially if you're not looking just at yardage, but at TDs. This is important... it plays into how many points SD will leave on the field vs. other teams.) Someone will go past him in the future, sure, but right now he's the challenge.

Are we monsters of red zone efficiency? Sure. Is San Diego just plain a monster offense, WITH good red zone efficiency? Also yes. How do you beat them? Simple, stop Tomlinson. How do you stop us? Survey says, Rattle Brady... but I say we're more robust as a TEAM, and can find those unexpected ways to win. Regardless...

Stop Tomlinson, and you stop the Chargers.


PFnV

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

I think a better question would be 'How well do the Pats match up with the Chargers?'

Looking at recent history, they almost beat us with Doug Flutie and they have beat us soundly twice since.

This match up doesn't favor us at all, Marty ball or not.

The only other mismatch for us is Denver, who appears to be slipping.

Ravens also might be a mismatch with their defense, but their offense is a step or two down from San Diego.

 

[SoonerPatriot]

I agree on the scheduling streak, but be realistic:

He's doing the kinds of things Marshall Faulk did in his prime, and Priest Holmes did for a year or two.

He's not beating a bad team for one to two TDs, he's beating them for three to four.

Recognize him for what he is: the best at his position today, and one of the best of record (especially if you're not looking just at yardage, but at TDs. This is important... it plays into how many points SD will leave on the field vs. other teams.) Someone will go past him in the future, sure, but right now he's the challenge.

Are we monsters of red zone efficiency? Sure. Is San Diego just plain a monster offense, WITH good red zone efficiency? Also yes. How do you beat them? Simple, stop Tomlinson. How do you stop us? Survey says, Rattle Brady... but I say we're more robust as a TEAM, and can find those unexpected ways to win. Regardless...

Stop Tomlinson, and you stop the Chargers.


PFnV

Speaking as a longtime Marshall Faulk fan going back to his days at SDSU, he was never as dangerous as Tomlinson is.