Winning 14+ Games

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

For everyone who is down on the Patriots, let's look at an incredible accomplishment. Sure, this is regular season, and we want championships, but that doesn't diminish the excellence of this team. Since 2003, the Patriots have won 14 or more games four times. In years when Brady was healthy, that is four of the last seven seasons.

To put in perspective how hard it is, I've put some data below. The league went into a 16-game format in 1978. How many teams have won 14 or more games? Well, 18 franchises have never done it. Only two franchises have done it more than twice. It has only been done 22 times.

Winning 14+ games during the regular season

4 (2 teams)- New England, San Francisco

2 (2 teams)- Indianapolis, Washington

1 (10 teams)- Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Jacksonville, Miami (14-0), Minnesota, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, San Diego, St. Louis

0 (18 teams)- Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, Tennessee, Kansas City, New Orleans, NY Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, Seattle, Tampa Bay

If 32 football teams each start the season with a chance to win 14+ games, over 32 seasons, that's 1024 attempts (some teams were expansion, so the numbers are tad off.) The feat has been accomplished 22 times, which gives a 2% chance of success.

The Montana-Young 49ers accomplished this feat four times, stretching over nine seasons. However, no head coach or quarterback have accomplished it as many times as Belichick or Brady.

So next time you get mad that went 14-2 (or 16-0!!!) and didn't win the Super Bowl, just remember how difficult it is to achieve that record to begin with. In case you are still bitter and just have to know, the 22 teams that won at least 14 games won the Super Bowl 11 times. Dominating teams get you a coin flip to win it all; better odds than the rest of the field, but still no better chance to win than to "choke." And, as what may be a sign of the salary cap, the last six teams to win 14 games (Pats '10 and '07, Chargers '06, Colts '09 and '05, Steelers '04- although the '04 Pats also won 14), have all failed to win a Super Bowl.

 

[ausbacker]

Nice piece of research Ice_Ice_Brady. Let's hope the Patriots can continue their stellar recent play and cap it off with a Lombardi for good measure .

 

[randomk1]

How many of those teams won the championship? What's the % of winning the SB if you achieve a 14 win season?

 

[ivanvamp]

How many of those teams won the championship? What's the % of winning the SB if you achieve a 14 win season?

Well, the OP said this in his last paragraph:

"So next time you get mad that went 14-2 (or 16-0!!!) and didn't win the Super Bowl, just remember how difficult it is to achieve that record to begin with. In case you are still bitter and just have to know, the 22 teams that won at least 14 games won the Super Bowl 11 times."

So let's see...

22 teams have won 14+ games
11 of those teams have won the SB title

That means that 11/22 = 1/2, or 50%.

Math is fun.

 

[ivanvamp]

For everyone who is down on the Patriots, let's look at an incredible accomplishment. Sure, this is regular season, and we want championships, but that doesn't diminish the excellence of this team. Since 2003, the Patriots have won 14 or more games four times. In years when Brady was healthy, that is four of the last seven seasons.

To put in perspective how hard it is, I've put some data below. The league went into a 16-game format in 1978. How many teams have won 14 or more games? Well, 18 franchises have never done it. Only two franchises have done it more than twice. It has only been done 22 times.

Winning 14+ games during the regular season

4 (2 teams)- New England, San Francisco

2 (2 teams)- Indianapolis, Washington

1 (10 teams)- Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Jacksonville, Miami (14-0), Minnesota, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, San Diego, St. Louis

0 (18 teams)- Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, Tennessee, Kansas City, New Orleans, NY Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, Seattle, Tampa Bay

If 32 football teams each start the season with a chance to win 14+ games, over 32 seasons, that's 1024 attempts (some teams were expansion, so the numbers are tad off.) The feat has been accomplished 22 times, which gives a 2% chance of success.

The Montana-Young 49ers accomplished this feat four times, stretching over nine seasons. However, no head coach or quarterback have accomplished it as many times as Belichick or Brady.

So next time you get mad that went 14-2 (or 16-0!!!) and didn't win the Super Bowl, just remember how difficult it is to achieve that record to begin with. In case you are still bitter and just have to know, the 22 teams that won at least 14 games won the Super Bowl 11 times. Dominating teams get you a coin flip to win it all; better odds than the rest of the field, but still no better chance to win than to "choke." And, as what may be a sign of the salary cap, the last six teams to win 14 games (Pats '10 and '07, Chargers '06, Colts '09 and '05, Steelers '04- although the '04 Pats also won 14), have all failed to win a Super Bowl.

Great post, Ice. It's what I've said for a long time - that winning a championship in any sport, but especially in a one-and-done sport like the NFL, is *extremely* difficult. Any one championship is special. That we've experienced it three times with this coach and QB is an unbelievable thing. All a franchise can do is put out a quality product as often as possible and hope to win it all once in a while. This team has done that and more - it's provided Patriots' fans with an incredible amount of enjoyment...much more so than any other franchise since BB arrived.

 

[Potstickas]

Not that I don't appreciate the difficulty of winning 13+ games, but when you go one and done in the playoffs going in with that record, the season is a disappointment.

The ultimate goal is to go deep into the playoffs and win superbowls. I don't want to evaluate my team based on regular season accomplishment only. Next thing I know I will start sounding like colts fans when they compare pats vs colts or Brady vs manning.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Not that I don't appreciate the difficulty of winning 13+ games, but when you go one and done in the playoffs going in with that record, the season is a disappointment. The ultimate goal is to go deep into the playoffs and win superbowls. I don't want to evaluate my team based on regular season accomplishment only. Next thing I know I will start sounding like colts fans when they compare pats vs colts or Brady vs manning.

It's all about perspective and having a sound, rational one. Somewhere between Colt fans and Pats fans lies the truth...

As an example, a fan over on Coltfreaks just knocked himself out doing an analysis of the greatest QB's in the league, past and present. What he decided to base his formula on was subjectively selected stats. He decided among other things to not use rookie stats because Peyton's sucked and would have knocked him off of a couple of his all important comparative listings... He decided to use QB's with less than 50 starts because that (along with a mathmatical error here and there) bumped Brady off of a couple of the lists. He relied heavily on total yards because those are Manning's forte. He used sacks as a criteria because between OL talent and official aversion to calling holding against the Colts OL Manning was untouchable for a while...

He also claims he left off seasons he felt were outliers for players like Favre and Marino and Montana just because he felt like it...

And of course he ignored post season statistics altogether...inclusion of which would have knocked most of the non Manning competition not named Brady off his lists altogether...

 

[LuthierJr]

Great post. I, for one, am very appreciative of the past decade. You don't need to think back much further than that see all the really bad years when this team struggled horribly.

Then there are the fans who whine and cry about what they think this team needs and don't put faith in the team and coaches who pulled us out of the years when we won less than 6 games. People need to really stop being such whiny brats and enjoy the tremendous success this team has had, and most likely will continue to have.

Have some faith in the guys who know a heck of a lot more than you or I and that they are doing what is best for this team.

 

[Mountain_Commando]

Great post IIB. And that 14-2 achievement is even sweeter when you consider:

- everyone and their grandma gave this team a 10-6 prediction at best
- when Moss left, 8-8 was looking difficult
- Warren, Bodden, Faulk out. Mankins out half the season
- Round 1 pick is an unheard of CB from Rutgers
- Maroney traded, last years 5th string RB becomes starter
- a VERY tough schedule

And how it turned out:
- Brady had his second best year, good enough for the only unanimous MVP award ever
- Branch comes back, fits in seamlessly. Moss who?
- D-mac becomes a shutdown corner in his rookie year. Bodden is barely missed
- Law firm burns the field for 1k yards
- this thing called Woodhead comes out of nowhere and leaves everyone scratching their heads, particularly the Jests
- Gronk and Hernandez become the best TE duo of any team, in their rookie seasons
- Our young D goes from the worst ranked in the league to top ranked in turnovers and respectably ranked in ppg
- Patriots O is feared again, with blowouts on the order of 45-3, 38-7, 34-3, 45-24

What a completely ass kicking season. Yes, it ended in a crappy way...4th consecutive year. But the law of averages gotta catch up eventually.

 

[FCB02062]

Give me a nice 11-5 record and a 3-0/4-0 record in January and February over 14-2 any day of the week. 14 wins is a nice thing, but getting bounced in the first playoff game after such a great regular season makes it hurt even more. I honestly don't think I'd be so p#ssed if they went 11-5, had a bye, and lost to SD in their first game...

 

[PATS4EVA]

It only matters how u end the season (Playoffs).

 

[randomk1]

Well, the OP said this in his last paragraph:

"So next time you get mad that went 14-2 (or 16-0!!!) and didn't win the Super Bowl, just remember how difficult it is to achieve that record to begin with. In case you are still bitter and just have to know, the 22 teams that won at least 14 games won the Super Bowl 11 times."

So let's see...

22 teams have won 14+ games
11 of those teams have won the SB title

That means that 11/22 = 1/2, or 50%.

Math is fun.

lol...somehow i missed that.

 

[ivanvamp]

lol...somehow i missed that.

Heh. Happens to me all the time. No worries.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Give me a nice 11-5 record and a 3-0/4-0 record in January and February over 14-2 any day of the week. 14 wins is a nice thing, but getting bounced in the first playoff game after such a great regular season makes it hurt even more. I honestly don't think I'd be so p#ssed if they went 11-5, had a bye, and lost to SD in their first game...

It only matters how u end the season (Playoffs).

I call bullschit... Some of you are pissed and hurt and dissatisfied no matter what happens.

14 wins is more than a nice thing when you grew up with a team that struggled to get TO .500. Never approached 14 wins in the first 40 years, but I bet most of you whiners have zero recollection of those days. Only managed double digit wins 9 times in 4 decades. This team has managed double digit wins 9 time in 1 decade, won the division 8 out of ten seasons, won the conference and gone to the Superbowl 4 times (twice as many times as in the prior 4 decades) and actually won 3 out of 4 as opposed to losing twice. Attracted a lot of new frontrunner fans in the process.

What some of you really deserve is a decade long stretch of 5-11 or worse, and I'd wish it on you but that wouldn't be fair to the rest of us.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

lol...somehow i missed that.

I read this post earlier in the morning and I'm not sure that part was there. The original poster did have an edit and may have included this information after your post.

Did the Patriots overachieve last year? Maybe they did by us fans and the media, but thos guys put in the work and took in the coaching and fed off the veteran leadership. Not bad for a rebuilding year

Playoff losses always hurt, especially to a division foe. But, it's been a great run the last 10 years and we always seem to have a seat at the playoff table with a couple noteable seasons and they had to come down tiebreakers to bounce us.

even better, we have a coach/GM that the media doesn't understand, but always has reasdy for the next few years. Am I spoiled, yes. But, I'm also grateful because the alternatives aren't likely to be better (well there's much more room to be worse than there is to be better).

 

[memento]

Last season was great if you consider it a rebuilding season. All I want right now is a speedy trip out of the courts and into free agency.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

What some of you really deserve is a decade long stretch of 5-11 or worse, and I'd wish it on you but that wouldn't be fair to the rest of us.

Unfortunately,someday that WILL happen again and the team lays on the bottom of the standings looking up

All great teams of the decade eventually went into several years funk with less than 8 wins and this team will likely go through it as well...hopefully not too soon in the near future

 

[randomk1]

I call bullschit... Some of you are pissed and hurt and dissatisfied no matter what happens.

14 wins is more than a nice thing when you grew up with a team that struggled to get TO .500. Never approached 14 wins in the first 40 years, but I bet most of you whiners have zero recollection of those days. Only managed double digit wins 9 times in 4 decades. This team has managed double digit wins 9 time in 1 decade, won the division 8 out of ten seasons, won the conference and gone to the Superbowl 4 times (twice as many times as in the prior 4 decades) and actually won 3 out of 4 as opposed to losing twice. Attracted a lot of new frontrunner fans in the process.

What some of you really deserve is a decade long stretch of 5-11 or worse, and I'd wish it on you but that wouldn't be fair to the rest of us.

What's wrong with expecting your team to win it all? Especially after they finish 14-2 and have the nr.1 seed? When you go 14-2 and get knocked out in your 1st game then that's an upset. In 09 i definately had lower expectations and wasn't suprised we lost.

I know a Bills fan and after week 5 he was talking about the draft. We have no reason to be that miserable right now.

 

[Potstickas]

What's wrong with expecting your team to win it all? Especially after they finish 14-2 and have the nr.1 seed? When you go 14-2 and get knocked out in your 1st game then that's an upset. In 09 i definately had lower expectations and wasn't suprised we lost.

I know a Bills fan and after week 5 he was talking about the draft. We have no reason to be that miserable right now.

+1

Accepting mediocrity is for losers. BB probably looked back at the year and said it was a nice regular season run but WTF happened in the playoffs. Let's not let that happen again.

With that said, I did enjoy the season. One in which a young team in transition with little expectations grew from game to game right before my eyes.

 

[jeffbiologist]

They weren't as good as the 14-2 record, they shouldnt have been so bad as to lose at home after a bye. The playoffs is all that matter. Losing the SB really hurt, missing out on the playoffs because of a tie breaker hurt too. TB was rusty coming back, 1 and done last year was accepted(though not the way they lost it). This season we were favorites at home with a BYE!
Once a incident
Twice a notable blemish
Third time a TREND!
Sure we were rebuilding, but that is every year with every team. This is Tom Brady unanimous MVP at home with BB coaching after a BYE!! Thats what hurts....expectations. There are 2 types of fans going into next season....the type that look at last years record of 14-2 and get on the yahoo bandwagon or the type that reserve judgement for a SINGLE win in the playoffs before even talking about a championship.
Baseball reference, even though I despise the sport...
Guess which team has the better record in the last 100 years in the regular season Yanks or Sox?? Most would take a look at the number of Championship trophies and say obviously it HAS TO BE the Yanks right? WRONG!! The Sox came in second place for soooo long that they have a better record, whats that worth?? NOTHING.