Barking up the Wrong Tree...

[Sicilian]

But if you look at the years that the Pats had a valid outsie pass rush, they either made it to the SUper Bowl or to the AFC Championship.

I believe in BB, he is the best game day coach in the league, BB the GM is just OK. He keeps hinting that the outside pass rush can be taken care of in FA, then when he fails to get a pass rush he makes excuses and says that pressure is just as important as sacks. Bur, as the Super Bowl proved, pressure doesn't do anything to stop a must have forth down play. If the Pats had Willie M in 2007 rushing the passer, Eli would have been down and the Pats would have won. Nothing against the 2007 team, but when they went up against a scheme they didn't expect they got punked. Same thing happened last year against the Jets in the playoff game, the Jets dropped 6, 7, sometimes 8 back and the Patriots refused to take advantage of it, and when the game was on the line, Sanchez had all day to find his recievers. Had the Pteriots had a pass rush they would have won that game. They would have overcome the field goal and dropped TD pass.

The Pats need a big time OLB. It is the missing piece to the puzzle. I do not begrudge Belichick taking a tackle in the first round, although I wouldn't have, but Ras-i Dowling at 33? Not trading up to take D'Quan Bowers in the second round? No linebacker taken until the 6th round, and he is probably training camp fodder. We had two first round picks, we could have taken both Solder and Heywood and then this is an A+ draft. Instead BB trades out of 28, drafts another risk DB at 33 and takes back to back running backs? The best pick of the draft is Ryan Mallett, and he won't take a snap for the Patriots this year.

You can't base the building of the team around a fluke play in the super bowl. The pressure DID do enough to stop that play 99 times out of 100 (he either gets called in the grasp, goes down, throws a worse pass under pressure, or the ball gets broken up instead of being caught off the freakin helmet). Just because those things didn't happen this one time, that doesn't mean you start taking players you don't believe in just to force a solution to the pass rush.

As has been explained ad nauseum around here, pass rush is MORE than just OLB. With the youngest defense in the league last year, numerous injuries to the defensive line (which is just as important to the pass rush), and the loss of Bodden, who was thought to be our best corner before McCourty came out gangbusters (and yes, the secondary contributes to the pass rush as well), we were still middle of the pack in sacks last year. It's possible the pass rush will improve even with just the return of Warren and Bodden and the addition of Stroud. If they add more pieces in FA, that's even better, but passing on unknowns in the draft at a notoriously difficult position to evaluate is not the travesty many here make it out to be.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

You can't base the building of the team around a fluke play in the super bowl. The pressure DID do enough to stop that play 99 times out of 100 (he either gets called in the grasp, goes down, throws a worse pass under pressure, or the ball gets broken up instead of being caught off the freakin helmet). Just because those things didn't happen this one time, that doesn't mean you start taking players you don't believe in just to force a solution to the pass rush.


As has been explained ad nauseum around here, pass rush is MORE than just OLB. With the youngest defense in the league last year, numerous injuries to the defensive line (which is just as important to the pass rush), and the loss of Bodden, who was thought to be our best corner before McCourty came out gangbusters (and yes, the secondary contributes to the pass rush as well), we were still middle of the pack in sacks last year. It's possible the pass rush will improve even with just the return of Warren and Bodden and the addition of Stroud. If they add more pieces in FA, that's even better, but passing on unknowns in the draft at a notoriously difficult position to evaluate is not the travesty many here make it out to be.

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH!
Where do I collect that Patriots apologist payola?

1) They didn't sack Manning on that last play. They didn't force a bad pass. They didn't lay a finger on him. Put a guy whose job it is to RUSH THE PASSER and probably that changes, we will never know, but my money is on the professional pass rusher and not on the professional run stopper.

2) 99 out of 100 doesn't matter, we happened to be that 1%. Don't get me wrong, a lot went bad during that game, and Coughlin came up with a superior game plan, but a pass rush solves that problem and we win.

3) I am sick of hearing about the Pats having the youngest defense in the league. What that tells me is that BB sacrificed a season or two to get young instead of making another run at it. That is not what I want to hear or see.

4) We need personel, people who have done it before. Cunningham did it in college, but was invisible for most of last year, TBC has 5 sacks, Mike Wright had 5.5. Willie McGinnest had 5 sacks in a playoff game against the Jags, but by your logic he made no difference in that game.

I drink the Patriots cool aid as much as the next guy does, but I ain't no mindless SOB who will believe what my eyes don't see. Pressure is nice, sacks inspire! Pressure doesn't show up on the stat sheets, sacks do and the players from the opposing teams know who has the stats. Pressure is just an excuse for failing to sack the QB, yeah it helps but in the morning after a 28 to 24 playoff loss applying pressure really didn't accomplish anything.

Here are the defensive stats from the Jets playoff loss. I rest my case.


TOT SOLO SACKS TFL PD QB HTS TD
J. Mayo 6 3 0 0 0 0 0
V. Wilfork 5 5 0 1 0 0 0
P. Chung 4 4 0 0 0 0 0
G. Guyton 4 4 0 0 0 0 0
B. Deaderick 4 4 0 0 0 0 0
B. Meriweather 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
R. Ninkovich 4 2 0 0 2 0 0
D. McCourty 3 3 0 0 0 0 0
K. Arrington 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
E. Moore 2 2 0 2 0 0 0
D. Fletcher 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
J. Cunningham 2 1 0 1 0 0 0
J. Sanders 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
S. Brown 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
D. Butler 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
G. Warren 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
B. Spikes 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
S. Graham 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
J. Page 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
T. Banta-Cain 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
M. Slater 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
T. White 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
A. Crumpler 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
K. Love 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Let me help with the math, that would be ZERO sacks.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I rest my case.

Promise? ...

 

[TruthSeeker]

He is the best ever Coach but he Drafts out of fear to not make a mistake is why he trades off to the following year. It's like canceling an appointment with the Dentist. You know you have to have a day in the chair at some point but it is a relief for the time being.

This has got to be one of the most ridiculous assertions I've ever heard. Did you even see the thread started here a week or so ago that gives a more than plausible theory for trading draft picks into future drafts? To summarize, trading a first round pick into next year typically gains an additional 2nd round pick in the current year. Likewise, trading a second round pick into next year typically gains an additional 3rd round pick in the current year. So the Patriots can gain an extra 2nd and 3rd round pick every year if they follow this strategy - and it appears that they've been doing either exactly this or using this principle for their drafts for a few years now.

Now, which is more likely. That BB has a strategy for gaining additional picks every year or that he is afraid to make a pick?

If you start with a wrong assumption, you reach wrong conclusions. You assumption stinks.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Belichick wants the odds to be in his favor both on the field and in the draft. You are advocating a strategy with a very low probability of success. See my reference above. Fear has nothing to do with it.

Do you understand that when Belichick went for it on 4th and 2, he was not "taking a swing," making a gutsy gamble. He was doing what a cold, hard calculation indicated gave him the best chance of winning?

Very few people seem to realize this because they prefer to make football decisions based on conventional wisdom instead of accurate information. It takes someone with a willingness to confront the truth and act accordingly which is clearly not someone like BB who is "afraid" to make a pick in the draft.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

This has got to be one of the most ridiculous assertions I've ever heard. Did you even see the thread started here a week or so ago that gives a more than plausible theory for trading draft picks into future drafts? To summarize, trading a first round pick into next year typically gains an additional 2nd round pick in the current year. Likewise, trading a second round pick into next year typically gains an additional 3rd round pick in the current year. So the Patriots can gain an extra 2nd and 3rd round pick every year if they follow this strategy - and it appears that they've been doing either exactly this or using this principle for their drafts for a few years now.

Now, which is more likely. That BB has a strategy for gaining additional picks every year or that he is afraid to make a pick?

If you start with a wrong assumption, you reach wrong conclusions. You assumption stinks.

Trading picks also has another tremendous advantage.

You don't have to pick a player you simply don't want.

90% of scouting and talent evaluation is weeding out bad players.

Last week, it's obvious we didn't want players in the 3rd or 4th round. Trade for a 2nd next year. Higher pick means you can actually get a guy you want.

Why take and pay guys you don't want?

It's so simple and logical yet nobody can seem to actually do it.

 

[Synovia]

If the franchise tag rules are the same next year they certainly can franchise him again. Whether he'd actually play under a tag in both 2011 and 2012 is a different question.

If they franchise him again next year, I believe he goes from "Average of top 5 guards" to "Average of top 5 players".


They're not paying him the 18M or so a year that'll cost.

 

[Shelterdog]

If they franchise him again next year, I believe he goes from "Average of top 5 guards" to "Average of top 5 players".


They're not paying him the 18M or so a year that'll cost.

You got a source for that? I've never heard that before and lots of players have been franchised multiple times in a row.

I frankly think you're making it up.

EDIT: Suggs was franchised two years in a row and no one mentioned the top five in the league number; Seymour was going to be franchised a second time in a row and it wasn't mentioned; no one mentioned if for Asante; Walter Jones was tagged three times in a row and there wasn't any of this top five business.

So you did just make it up. Why on earth would you do that?

 

[E Belichick Unum]

Promise? ...

I lied.

Zero QB hits also.

 

[Sicilian]

I lied.

Zero QB hits also.

How many defensive linemen do you count on that list? I count 4, and one of them is Kyle Love. You MIGHT be able to consider Moore a DL, but he's a hybrid at best. Hard to control the line of scrimmage with a rotation of 4 DL's, and guess how you get pressure on the QB? 9 times out of 10 it's with a good d-line controlling the LoS.

 

[Synovia]

You got a source for that? I've never heard that before and lots of players have been franchised multiple times in a row.

I frankly think you're making it up.

EDIT: Suggs was franchised two years in a row and no one mentioned the top five in the league number; Seymour was going to be franchised a second time in a row and it wasn't mentioned; no one mentioned if for Asante; Walter Jones was tagged three times in a row and there wasn't any of this top five business.

So you did just make it up. Why on earth would you do that?

No, I didn't make it up. I made the mistake of misremebering that Mankins was given an RFA tag last year, and not the franchise tag.

The franchise tag rules go like this:

Year 1: Average of top 5 of your position, or 120% of your previous year, whichever is higher.

Year 2: Average of top 5 of your position, or 120% of your previous year, whichever is higher.

Year 3: Average of top 5 of ALL POSITIONS, or 120% of your previous year, whichever is higher.


You can't franchise a guy in year 4. These rules were put in because of Walter Jones.

 

[Shelterdog]

No, I didn't make it up. I made the mistake of misremebering that Mankins was given an RFA tag last year, and not the franchise tag.

The franchise tag rules go like this:

Year 1: Average of top 5 of your position, or 120% of your previous year, whichever is higher.

Year 2: Average of top 5 of your position, or 120% of your previous year, whichever is higher.

Year 3: Average of top 5 of ALL POSITIONS, or 120% of your previous year, whichever is higher.

You can't franchise a guy in year 4. These rules were put in because of Walter Jones.

I see, it's not the second year in a row, it's the third year in a row that you get paid top 5 of all positions?

Got a source for that or are you making this one up also?

 

[Synovia]

A team may tag a given player a maximum of 3 times. The 3rd time the tag is applied the player will receive 144% of the prior year’s salary or the highest franchise tag number for that year, regardless of position

Free Agency Terminology


I've heard it described as the average of the top 5 paid players, and the top 5 of the highest paid position, but they're effectively the same thing: QB money.

 

[Triple-T]

Maiocco: Five-year study of NFL drafts

Heh, CHFF did the work for me using the same source.

Thanks Sciz for the link.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ball-facts-patriots-best-drafters-decade.html

Just a couple salient facts (as opposed to gut feeling)
Pats #2 for drafting pro-bowlers (i.e. impact players)
pats #1 for players with +20 and +50 Career AVS (measure of overall effectiveness)
All of the Pats #1 picks are still playing in the NFL
Pats #3 for players still active in the NFL


That last one is huge when you consider that the Pats have had the best winning % (lowest draft position) and continually trade down to acquire more picks.

I don't see how anyone can dispute that the Pats' overall record is excellent.

 

[patfanken]

He had 9M on the table last year and walked away from a good chunk of it. Why the hell would he risk injury for $10M when holding out gets him probably 6/$60 next year?


They can't franchise him next year.

What are you talking about. He made less than $500,000 last season and he was a RFA tendered at the highest level. He could have signed for about $2.5MM, then we he didn't the Pats had the ability to slash that (I can't recall how much but it was a lot) , and by the time he got back he was in the 6 figure area.

As to last season, the Pats offered him a LT deal that averaged, again IIRC, about $7.5MM He turned it down.

So when you come down to it, Syn, nothing you said in your post had any truth to it.

 

[Synovia]

What are you talking about. He made less than $500,000 last season and he was a RFA tendered at the highest level. He could have signed for about $2.5MM, then we he didn't the Pats had the ability to slash that (I can't recall how much but it was a lot) , and by the time he got back he was in the 6 figure area.

As to last season, the Pats offered him a LT deal that averaged, again IIRC, about $7.5MM He turned it down.

So when you come down to it, Syn, nothing you said in your post had any truth to it.

It would really serve you if you'd read the thread before responding to early posts.

 

[DW Toys]

Heh, CHFF did the work for me using the same source.

Thanks Sciz for the link.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ball-facts-patriots-best-drafters-decade.html

Just a couple salient facts (as opposed to gut feeling)
Pats #2 for drafting pro-bowlers (i.e. impact players)
pats #1 for players with +20 and +50 Career AVS (measure of overall effectiveness)
All of the Pats #1 picks are still playing in the NFL
Pats #3 for players still active in the NFL


That last one is huge when you consider that the Pats have had the best winning % (lowest draft position) and continually trade down to acquire more picks.

I don't see how anyone can dispute that the Pats' overall record is excellent.

I respect your opinion. It is not that of many others but some follow your camp. He is a great coach. He has had many bone head Drafts...i.e inconsistent (see 06 and 08) where actual posters on this site could have fared better.

If BB himself would not have said this was the Best Draft for from 7 defensive guys he had seen in years, and then walked away, it would have made sense. It was a crappy Draft. I like the Mallet move for a future first or high pick and Cannon who was rated in the first round by some. I like Dowling and had us taking him but later. The rest don't put starch in my shorts.
So we got a development LT, a bigger Danny Woodhead, a power running back some said should have stayed in school another year, a TE/LS (almost makes sense) and two definite maybe/give-ups. We got a second from Oakland...o.k. I guess...... and a high first rounder if we would have waited would have been higher.

Peter King is not my favorite but he is close to many organizations. Truth be told, BB made a big mistake at #28. The Saints will be a top Team in 2011. If he held off until #33 he could have had a higher second round pick and a higher first round pick in 2011. He played his cards wrong or is full of crap about value. He was going to take Dowling no matter what. I predict the big news is he will be playing Safety sooner than later. King chastised BB for taking a CB. I think Mr. King is wrong. He also could not understand the depth that could not produce a OLB or DE pass rusher of value at #28.

Kaepernick and Dalton were still in play. and other Teams tried to Trade with the Pats but they already had their obligatory first rounder for 2012. There is a blunder that no one will ever tell us about. But it was none-the-less. Dowling would have lasted a few more picks and if he was nervous we had ammo to move back up from a higher 2nd rounder than we got from the Saints.

He still Drafts like he is afraid to make a mistake but the greatest Coach ever.
DW Toys

 

[Metaphors]

If BB himself would not have said this was the Best Draft for from 7 defensive guys he had seen in years, and then walked away, it would have made sense.

I never heard that. This is the closest thing I heard:

“I think that’s really going to be a key part in this whole draft. I think when we look back on it in a couple of years, and evaluate it, it will probably come down to which teams are able to evaluate those front-7 positions (the best),” Belichick said. ”I’m sure there are going to be a lot of those players taken high, whether they (are) defensive linemen or defensive ends/outside linebackers, however you want to look at it. The teams that are able to come out with the impact players in that group . . . has a lot to do with who’s able to gain the most out of this draft.”

Far different than your statement. He is saying that there is some question about the front 7 guys taken high. Some will be impact players and some will not. If he thought that all/most of them would be impact players, his statement wouldn't make much sense. The teams that get the impact players will be evaluated favorably. The others, not so much. In the end, instead of gambling he chose not to play.

So we got a development LT

They obviously don't agree or they wouldn't have drafted Solder at #17.

a bigger Danny Woodhead

Really? I'm not a huge Vereen fan but even I can recognize his value. As a runner, he is solid if unspectacular. He can threaten the outside which is something they haven't had for a while. As a receiver, he is closer to Marshall Faulk than Danny Woodhead.

a power running back some said should have stayed in school another year

What would another year at LSU have gained him besides more tread worn off his tires? I suppose he could become a better receiver but is LSU the best place to hone those skills? Again, not a big Ridley fan but he fills a niche with the Pats. It is clear the Pats saw the talent cliff in this draft at around #75 and wanted to cross him off the list before they turned to sliders, special teams and recycling into 2012.

a TE/LS (almost makes sense)

Makes a ton of sense if Crumpler and/or Katula don't return. If both Crumpler and Katula come back, a 4th (seemingly redudant) TE is an odd choice for a roster spot. I suppose Smith could make it to the PS but that doesn't raise my evaluation of the pick.

and two definite maybe/give-ups

Didn't know that the Pats renamed their special teams players. Someone should tell O'Brien since "Patriots Give-ups Coordinator" looks suckish on a business card.

We got a second from Oakland...o.k. I guess

Check out the Raiders schedule. AFC East (1pm east coast roadies against Bills/Fins), NFC North and a division looking for revenge from last year. If the Browns and Texans are improved, the Raiders could be a surprise dud team in 2011.

and a high first rounder if we would have waited would have been higher.
Peter King is not my favorite but he is close to many organizations. Truth be told, BB made a big mistake at #28. The Saints will be a top Team in 2011. If he held off until #33 he could have had a higher second round pick and a higher first round pick in 2011.

There is evidence now that Belichick tried hard to trade out of #33 but couldn't get the value he wanted. Do you really believe he had a better offer on the table for #33 than what he got from the Saints for #28 but he turned it down for Dowling? Not only haven't I seen that speculated anywhere, it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

I predict the big news is he will be playing Safety sooner than later. King chastised BB for taking a CB. I think Mr. King is wrong.

You don't take a guy at #33 that you can't get on the field. If everyone at DB is retained and healthy, Dowling gets on the field by playing all over. I don't understand the need for declaring him only a CB or only a S at this point.

Kaepernick and Dalton were still in play. and other Teams tried to Trade with the Pats but they already had their obligatory first rounder for 2012. There is a blunder that no one will ever tell us about.

Because it is fantasy. The Pats took multiple offers for #33 and none of them included a #1 in 2012. In fact, you can hear Belichick telling teams it would take a 2nd rounder in 2012 to do a deal. The fact that they passed on all the offers means they couldn't even get that for #33 from the teams looking to move up. Unless you have some insider information beyond seeing the draft room on "All Access", I call shenanigans.

He still Drafts like he is afraid to make a mistake

Your complaints and conclusions don't jibe. Belichick drafts a developmental OT at #17 but is afraid of making a mistake? Drafting at #17 and taking a developmental anything is a huge risk. You say the RB selections were reaches at best and lunacy at worst, yet Belichick is afraid? Sounds like a guy supremely confident in his evaluations and not afraid to take guys ahead of where conventional wisdom says they should go...and not afraid of going against the masses when their group-think doesn't match up with what he believes is best for the team.

 

[plk]

He still Drafts like he is afraid to make a mistake but the greatest Coach ever.

90% of scouting and talent evaluation is weeding out bad players.

patsfaninpittsburgh is right. Belichick understands how important it is to avoid mistakes, particularly with first round picks. To understand how difficult it is to avoid mistakes even with top five picks, see

A 50% Chance You'll Squander Millions - WSJ.com

Belichick is not drafting from fear but from a thorough understanding of how much of a crapshoot the draft is.

 

[Triple-T]

I respect your opinion. It is not that of many others but some follow your camp. He is a great coach. He has had many bone head Drafts...i.e inconsistent (see 06 and 08) where actual posters on this site could have fared better.

If BB himself would not have said this was the Best Draft for from 7 defensive guys he had seen in years, and then walked away, it would have made sense. It was a crappy Draft. I like the Mallet move for a future first or high pick and Cannon who was rated in the first round by some. I like Dowling and had us taking him but later. The rest don't put starch in my shorts.
So we got a development LT, a bigger Danny Woodhead, a power running back some said should have stayed in school another year, a TE/LS (almost makes sense) and two definite maybe/give-ups. We got a second from Oakland...o.k. I guess...... and a high first rounder if we would have waited would have been higher.

Peter King is not my favorite but he is close to many organizations. Truth be told, BB made a big mistake at #28. The Saints will be a top Team in 2011. If he held off until #33 he could have had a higher second round pick and a higher first round pick in 2011. He played his cards wrong or is full of crap about value. He was going to take Dowling no matter what. I predict the big news is he will be playing Safety sooner than later. King chastised BB for taking a CB. I think Mr. King is wrong. He also could not understand the depth that could not produce a OLB or DE pass rusher of value at #28.

Kaepernick and Dalton were still in play. and other Teams tried to Trade with the Pats but they already had their obligatory first rounder for 2012. There is a blunder that no one will ever tell us about. But it was none-the-less. Dowling would have lasted a few more picks and if he was nervous we had ammo to move back up from a higher 2nd rounder than we got from the Saints.

He still Drafts like he is afraid to make a mistake but the greatest Coach ever.
DW Toys

we have no idea how any players just drafter will play, so there's no logic in saying they were bad choices. If you talking about fit, we had a hole at LT, RB and CB. Mallett is curious, but if he was truly 1st round talent, you simply can't pass on him in the 3rd round. Cannon looks like a steal if he can get/stay healthy. The rest was a crap shoot. Who cares where anyone else had the players ranked? It didn't stop him from taking Vollmer and that looks like one of the best picks ever.

His track record speaks for itself. He is a very good talent evaluator and has the best draft record over the last decade. Sure, he screwed up in 2006, but that was his worst year. 2007 had little talent and he used his picks to get welker, moss and meriweather. Sounds good to me. The rest of the time, he's getting pro-bowlers and contributors.

I just can't see why you think he is such a bad drafter. One bad year, a couple meh years and then some of the best years of any team in any year. If solder turns out to be a stud, dowling does half of what mccourty did and the RBs combine for 800 yds/8 tds, this looks like another one of his best drafts.