Patriot's draft record surpriise

[Kasmir]

You'd think from reading some of the posts here that Belichick is a drafting dunce that accumulates picks, seldom uses them, and screws up when he does.

So perhaps surprising to many, here's someone who graded all 32 teams drafts over the past ten years, and guess which team came out on top:

Using information from the great folks at pro-football-reference.com – or, as we like to call it, “The Bible” – we broke down the 10 drafts from 2001-2010 looking for an impartial answer to who was the best. Who drafted the most stars, the most longtime starters, the most promising young players? Who had the most players from their drafts active in the league last year? Who was the best?

When it was all said and done, there was an easy and not-so-surprising answer: the New England Patriots.

They had the second-most Pro Bowlers, 11, trailing only San Diego (12). They had the most players with a career “Approximate Value” of 50+ as determined by Pro Football Reference’s formula that takes into account position, playing time, team success and production (read more about it here). They had the second-most players with career AV of 20 or better. They were tied for third in terms of draftees still active in the league in 2010.

And they did it despite having the best record in the league over that decade, which means having the least amount of actual draft power. It’s pretty remarkable feat, and the reason that guys like Mel Kiper and Peter King couched their criticisms of the Patriots’ 2011 draft by adding “but it’s the Patriots, so it’ll probably work out OK.”

...and...

New England (A)
Pro Bowlers: 11 (2nd)
Draftees Active in 2010: 46 (t-3rd)
Players with 50+ Career AV: 7 (1st)
Players with 20+ Career AV: 22 (t-1st)
Best Pick: CB Asante Samuel (4th round, 2003)
Worst Pick: WR Chad Jackson (2nd round, 2006)

Summary: The Patriots got at least one impact player in each of their 10 drafts from 2001-2010, and maybe the biggest tribute to their ability to identify top talent is that all 10 of their No. 1 picks were still playing in the league last year along with 11 of their 14 No. 2s. This bodes well for 2011 draftees Nate Solder, Ras-I Dowling and Shane Vereen.

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades

 

[BPF]

Nice find. Can't say I disagree, BB is an excellent talent evaluator. This team is only a passrusher away from being the clear SB favorite in the AFC. That passrusher would not be a rookie in this defense.

 

[randomk1]

There have been alot of misses for us too...i can't feel that we are the best drafting team. We are among the best but the best?

 

[smg93]

There have been alot of misses for us too...i can't feel that we are the best drafting team. We are among the best but the best?

Your "feel" would be more convincing if you had facts to back it up though. At least CHFF is using data to help them evaluate drafts.

 

[Fencer]

I have two quibbles, but they don't much affect the overall conclusion:

1. Given the Bledsoe and Seymour trades, the Pats probably didn't have the VERY lowest average draft position (e.g., counting by the trade value chart). But they probably were close to the bottom even so.

2. A couple of those Pro Bowlers -- e.g. Koppen -- might never have made a Pro Bowl if the Pats hadn't had such overall team or unit (e.g. offense) success.

 

[randomk1]

Your "feel" would be more convincing if you had facts to back it up though. At least CHFF is using data to help them evaluate drafts.

Just on the basis of 06-08. That is not good drafting by any stretch of the imagination. Had we hit a homerun with just one of those picks we might be enjoying 1 extra title right now.

 

[blackglass3]

When our worst pick is a 2nd round WR, I'd say Belichick is doing a pretty good job. Let's at least let these guys play before we want Belichick to give up drafting duties.

It's funny, people freaked about the draft last year and that group turned out to be pretty damn solid. Let's give them a chance.

 

[blackglass3]

Just on the basis of 06-08. That is not good drafting by any stretch of the imagination. Had we hit a homerun with just one of those picks we might be enjoying 1 extra title right now.

If Jerod Mayo isn't a homerun, what is?

I'll give you the 06 and 07 Drafts, but I am failing to see the problem with 08. Wheatley didn't work out, but besides that?

 

[DarrylS]

People use anecdotal evidence to try to substantiate that the Patriots have had lousy drafts, however when confronted with empirical evidence they still doubt and point to exceptions..

The reality is that we have drafted some very good players who are making an impact on this team and on this league, often it is heard that BB missed an opportunity, but in reality he has done quite well.

It is the shiny beads theory, if it sparkles it must be good..no matter what it is or how it fits.

 

[DarrylS]

I have two quibbles, but they don't much affect the overall conclusion:

1. Given the Bledsoe and Seymour trades, the Pats probably didn't have the VERY lowest average draft position (e.g., counting by the trade value chart). But they probably were close to the bottom even so.

2. A couple of those Pro Bowlers -- e.g. Koppen -- might never have made a Pro Bowl if the Pats hadn't had such overall team or unit (e.g. offense) success.

On the latter point, consider Andre Tippett.. who many think should be in the hall of fame, however he suffered because he was a really great player on pyss poor teams.

In the NFL you are a product of the system in which you play..

 

[randomk1]

If Jerod Mayo isn't a homerun, what is?

I'll give you the 06 and 07 Drafts, but I am failing to see the problem with 08. Wheatley didn't work out, but besides that?

Besides that? Everybody else.

I guess we can leave out Matt Slater. He's a good ST guy.

And by homerun i mean somebody who has game changing talent.

 

[blackglass3]

Besides that? Everybody else.

I guess we can leave out Matt Slater. He's a good ST guy.

And by homerun i mean somebody who has game changing talent.

Who would you have rather taken in 08 after the Wheatley pick? At a glance, the only names that jump out at me are Jamaal Charles, Tom Zbikowski, and Jermichael Finley.

 

[zoostation]

There have been alot of misses for us too...i can't feel that we are the best drafting team. We are among the best but the best?

define 'us' ...

 

[randomk1]

Who would you have rather taken in 08 after the Wheatley pick? At a glance, the only names that jump out at me are Jamaal Charles, Tom Zbikowski, and Jermichael Finley.

Anybody that might actually be on the team and might contribute would a good place to start with at this point. There are plenty of solid players in that draft. Those were bad drafts for us...no sugarcoating it.

 

[randomk1]

define 'us' ...

Pretty simple...The New England Patriots organization and the fans who they play for.

 

[capetide]

I have two quibbles, but they don't much affect the overall conclusion:

1. Given the Bledsoe and Seymour trades, the Pats probably didn't have the VERY lowest average draft position (e.g., counting by the trade value chart). But they probably were close to the bottom even so.

2. A couple of those Pro Bowlers -- e.g. Koppen -- might never have made a Pro Bowl if the Pats hadn't had such overall team or unit (e.g. offense) success.

Both of those facts would be true of the Steelers, Ravens, Saints, Colts, and other successful teams too.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

I have two quibbles, but they don't much affect the overall conclusion:

1. Given the Bledsoe and Seymour trades, the Pats probably didn't have the VERY lowest average draft position (e.g., counting by the trade value chart). But they probably were close to the bottom even so.

2. A couple of those Pro Bowlers -- e.g. Koppen -- might never have made a Pro Bowl if the Pats hadn't had such overall team or unit (e.g. offense) success.

Since the draftpick for Seymour was 2011, and the analysis is 2001-2010, you can toss that out. If you also consider Goodell stole one of our 1st rounds picks, I'd say we're the lowest. Don't forget that we use picks to aquire veterans as well.

 

[capetide]

Ok. Can someone name me one team that hasn't had "alot of misses too"?

 

[bigcountry75]

Since the draftpick for Seymour was 2011, and the analysis is 2001-2010, you can toss that out. If you also consider Goodell stole one of our 1st rounds picks, I'd say we're the lowest. Don't forget that we use picks to aquire veterans as well.

Good point...I wonder how many 1st round picks in 2012 we would have had if we had that extra 1st rounder to trade into future drafts....

 

[ausbacker]

There have been alot of misses for us too...i can't feel that we are the best drafting team. We are among the best but the best?

I'm curious to which team hasn't missed in the draft on a regular basis?