The Richard Seymour Draft Annuity

[shakadave]

I cant believe there are still fans on the board griping about BB's decision to trade out of the 1st round. Have we learned nothing, people? They are already upset that even with two 1sts in 2012 BB is likely to trade one of those picks into 2013 anyway-- "so what's the point?"

Well, if it's not already obvious, let me spell it out. The point is that BB has a nice little annuity going that could run as long as he can find trading partners, and the payout is a 2nd round pick annually.

This analysis is so correct it's not funny. I think the same thing whenever I hear the rant, "When are they ever going to USE these picks they accumulate." The people who say that must mean when are we ever going to trade up to #10 in the 1st round. (Answer: never.)

 

[Brettlax3434]

Great post. I agree with you, BB has found a way to guarentee an extra second round pick every year. Over time that really allows a team accumilate great talent and depth at every position.

 

[AzPatsFan]

While I understand and appreciate the various options and dynamics having multiple picks allow us, I still don't see where our versatility this year has helped our #25 ranked defense.

But I do see where our quest for options has helped the Jets out tremendously.

Maybe it is good that BB drafted a ton of offense, since we gave the jets some really good D line players.

Ochmed,

I respect your opinions, but the Patriots Defense is and was much more substantial than the 2008 or 2009 versions, even if some of the the stats don't show it.

It will continue to improve without any additions other than from gaining experience with all the youngsters. Plus we know it will get help from Ty Warren, Leigh Bodden and a full season from Brandon Spikes, Mike Wright, Brian Deaderick, Mo Pryor, Ron Brace, and K Love and Brandon McGowan.

I can see why BB thought it was time to let the defensive stew simmer for a while. So he tuned his attention to the ageing Offense.

Meanwhile the Jets Policy of trading down and Drafting one or two 'good' players is catchiing up with them. Kenrick Ellis is as likely to breaking rocks under a Warden's watchful eyes, as he is to be pounding Jets opponents. But you have to start gambling when the cupboard is growing bare, and there is no wherewithal to restock it...

 

[brady199]

I cant believe there are still fans on the board griping about BB's decision to trade out of the 1st round. Have we learned nothing, people? They are already upset that even with two 1sts in 2012 BB is likely to trade one of those picks into 2013 anyway-- "so what's the point?"

Well, if it's not already obvious, let me spell it out. The point is that BB has a nice little annuity going that could run as long as he can find trading partners, and the payout is a 2nd round pick annually.

Here's where our first rounders this year have worked out this year...

2011 1st (#17) = Neal Solder (2011)
2011 1st (#28) = Shane Vereen (2011) + 2012 1st (New Orleans)

So, next year, lets say we get...

2012 1st (from New Orleans)
2012 1st (our own) = 2012 2nd + 2013 1st

... and suppose this trading is infinitely repeatable...

2013 1st (from trade)
2013 1st (our own) = 2013 2nd + 2014 1st

If BB keeps this up, he should be able to draft a 1st and two 2nds every year for the rest of his career. How's that for a nice little annuity? Thanks to the Richard Seymour trade plus his willingness to be patient, he has a system that will give him an extra 2nd round pick every year for... forever. Nice sustainable competitive advantage, I'd say. He's been incredibly successful converting 2nd rounders the last two years, with Gronk, Chung, Vollmer, Spikes, Cunningham proving the point that you can find game breaking talent with very low risk. Here's hoping the streak continues.

As a bonus, this approach gives BB the opportunity to be in the playoffs every year, and still choose a first rounder in the teens every year, instead of in the thirties. Gives him persistent access to a higher level of first round talent than the Colts, Eagles and Steelers will have a shot at, even if they fall out of the playoffs earlier than the Pats.

The Richard Seymour Annuity isn't the first time BB has had this opportunity. The Drew Bledsoe Annuity gave us a similar dynamic in 2003 and 2004.

2003 1st (#13) = Ty Warren (2003)
2003 1st (#19) = Eugene Wilson (2003) + 2004 1st (Baltimore)

2004 1st (#21) = Vince Wilfork (2004)
2004 1st (#32) = Benjamin Watson (2004)... so the loop stops, because he picked Watson instead of paying it forward into the 2004 2nd + 2005 1st

Now, imagine if BB had traded #32 to New Orleans in 2004, for a 2005 1st rounder plus their 2nd. The Saints selected Deverey Henderson with their 2nd, and the early 2005 1st rounder could have been Demarcus Ware. It would have meant keeping Christian Fauria on the roster a few years longer, not having Watson. But now, in retrospect, would that have been so bad?

Let's play it the other way... what if BB had traded up in 2003 instead of down? He could have traded as high as #4 overall, and instead of Warren, Wilson and Wilfork, he could have had his choice between Jonathan Sullivan, Dwayne Robertson or Terence Newman. It's laughable now, but a lot of fans on this board really wanted us to move up for a "blue chipper" like Sullivan.


Also, the Deon Branch Annuity showed some potential before a sad break-loop

2007 1st (#23) = Brandon Meriweather (2007)
2007 1st (#28) = Randy Moss (2007) + 2008 1st (San Francisco)

2008 1st (#7) = Jerod Mayo (2008) + Shawn Crable (2008)
2008 1st (forfeited, spygate)... so the loop stops, because the league slapped the team

Again, instead of trading down for Moss + Mayo + Crable and Meriweather, if BB had traded up from #23 + #28, he could have gotten as high as #8 overall, which could have been Jamaal Anderson, Ted Ginn or Patrick Willis, two of which have been huge busts.


It looks like BB isn't just playing this strategy game with his 1st rounders. He's doing the same thing by monetizing extra 3rd round picks into future 2nds, which he's done a few times now.

And trading Cassel + Vrabel to the Chiefs gave us Chung at 34, allowing BB to make an incredible series of trades that converted the #23 overall pick in 2009 into the following four players: Darius Butler (2009), Brandon Tate (2009), Julian Edelman (2009) and Rob Gronkowski (2010). Gronkowski is worth the 1st rounder on his own.

How is this possible? It seems as if BB is "creating" draft value. And, in fact, he is. The price to pay is a willingness to be patient. And patience can only come with job security and a confidence that he'll be there to take advantage of the good draft positioning in the future, which is something you can credit Bob Kraft for creating. I think we should all be grateful to be fans for a franchise that can afford to take the long view, and has the smarts and discipline to pull it off. So, stop whining and show some respect.

I thought it was obvious too, but maybe you could post this on the Jets Message Boards, cuz there Math Skills are seriously lacking. But if it wasn't for fools like them, BB wouldn't have any trade partners. :singing:

 

[upstater1]

This analysis is so correct it's not funny. I think the same thing whenever I hear the rant, "When are they ever going to USE these picks they accumulate." The people who say that must mean when are we ever going to trade up to #10 in the 1st round. (Answer: never.)

It's not enough for them to see the Patriots take 5 guys in the first 3 rounds, while other teams are grabbing 2 or 3 tops.

 

[eom]

I would just like to add, if it hasn't been posted already, that the guys they draft are getting paid peanuts --- so by flooding your roster with these young players you not only have great depth, some protection against the inevitable busts, but also a really cheap labor supply which enables you to selectively pay the occasional guy commanding big money and still field a deep team under the cap -- when the cap comes back.....
just think how many guys belichick has on the roster that add up to one offthemarcus russel or a haynesworth.

the following dozen players are signed through 2012 or 2013 --- about a quarter of the roster:
brace
butler
chung
gronk
vollmer
cunningham
tate
hernandez
spikes
price
pryor
edelman

total all 12 of these guys up and you get about 5.5m in annual salary and just over a 9m cap hit ---- this is almost identical to randy moss figures for 2009.

 

[rookBoston]

Who is to say what those un-harvested Annuity Draft picks might have produced? Another one or two Superbowl appearances, and a Lombardi or two? The Patriots were close. Would a few more good players have put them over the top? We will never know.

I hear you. At the time, we were all too pleased to finally have a franchise ILB on the roster (breakthru!) to worry about the fact that we got hosed.

So, what might we have gotten for the "lost" 2008 1st rounder? Well, if we imagine Baltimore as our trading partner, trading down would have netted Baltimore's 2008 2nd (#55) + their 2009 1st (#26). Baltimore used #55 on RB Ray Rice. Baltimore traded #26 to NE who flipped it to Green Bay who selected OLB Clay Matthews.

LOL... it's not a fair scenario. There was no one available at #30 in 2008 that was worth Baltimore trading up for. Brandon Flowers? John Carlson? When they traded up in 2003 it was for Kyle Boller, who they projected as their franchise QB. There was no one with that kind of pull in 2008.

And, Rice and Matthews were (by coincidence) the two most successful players from their portions of the draft. Could as easily have been QB Chad Henne and RB Ronald Brown, which is much less exciting.

Still, the idea that the Commish (damn him) stole Ray Rice + Clay Matthews from us pretty tempting.

 

[mgteich]

I look at it more simply. Bill took our #28 and trade it for a 2nd every year, forever, including this year. He will simply make the same trade each year, trading the 1st for a 2nd and a 1st in the next year. So in the end, the #28 will have been traded for:
2011 2nd
2012 2nd
2013 2nd
2014 2nd
2015 2nd
and so on, and so on.

Ingram or Vareen and a 2nd every year for the next 10 years?
=========================================================

I think that Belichick might have tried again to do this again at 33. In any case, whatever trade was in the works fell through and he was forced to take a 4.39 1st round quality defensive back. The alternative was Williams, another 1st round quality defensive back. These guys were pushed down by the run on quarterbacks and OT's (Carpenter in the first?).
========================================================

It should be mentioned that this is not a matter of trading current picks for future picks, passing out on current players. We still drafted 5 players. We have drafted at least 5 in the last three years. Of course, other teams draft 2-4.

 

[BoyWonder]

What happened to trying to win the Superbowl? Its not like the money is coming out of his pocket.

 

[manxman2601]

What happened to trying to win the Superbowl? Its not like the money is coming out of his pocket.

Doesn't getting a 14-2 record suggest that they are trying to win the Superbowl? It wasn't a lack of players that prevented us getting to the Superbowl last year, it was a fired up Jets team, better gameplanning by the Jets and poor execution by the Patriots.

 

[patfanken]

In before the haters come in with Seymour = Solder.

But they don't understand the flexibility generated by that trade, which allows us to move around to gain picks. We would have moved #17 too if we got the deal offered to us at #28.

That flexibility ensures we can always get guys we target while also accumulating extra picks. If we didn't have #17, it might be more difficult to move from #28.

Its more than just Seymour for Solder. Its ONE YEAR ONLY of Seymour vs however you see the value of the 17th pick in the draft. Which in this case means at TEN year starter at LT.

Seymour cronies keep pointing to how the playoffs might have been different in 2009 and 2010. Well they keep failing to recognized how flawed that 09 team was, and there was no way Seymour was back for the 2010 season. It was a great value trade.

 

[eom]

What happened to trying to win the Superbowl? Its not like the money is coming out of his pocket.

wut.......?

 

[rookBoston]

What happened to trying to win the Superbowl? Its not like the money is coming out of his pocket.

lol... you must be a Redskins fan.

For the record, BB drafted 5 players in the top-75 just now, and 9 players overall. For comparison:

Team - Top75 - Total picks
Pats - 5 - 9
Jets - 1 - 6
Fins - 2 - 6
Bills - 3 - 9

So, not only did we add a lot of youth, the talent skews high. We have almost half of all the top-75 picks drafted in the AFC East.

 

[MaineMan]

rookBoston,

This is a remarkable thread. Great Job. Great Analysis!

It is another reason I dislike Roger Goodell, as NFL Commissioner. He docked a First Round Draft pick, from the Patriots for a technical violation of taping in a non-approved location. Even though taping is not forbidden; and "stealing signals" is part of the game, and done all the time.

Yet he never even touched his precious Jets for their pre-meditated, pre-planned, interference and unsportman-like actions on Kick coverage. They paid no price, First round or Seventh round draft pick, for their actions.

Worse it ruined and interfered with Belichick's Draft Annuity. Who is to say what those un-harvested Annuity Draft picks might have produced? Another one or two Superbowl appearances, and a Lombardi or two? The Patriots were close. Would a few more good players have put them over the top? We will never know.

I'd bet that, even now, Goodell is plotting some BS way to end this permanently. I hope that someday someone will pen a tell-all detailing the history of the mortal enmity between Goodell and BB.

 

[ausbacker]

Great thread. Would read again!