2011 Draft Trade Analysis

[jeffbiologist]

BB the tradesman was at it again but lets take a look at the trades and see which ones we agree on and which ones we dont.

#28(Ingram) for #56(Vereen) and New Orleans 2012 First--few could argue the value BB got here unless Ingram goes on to emulate Emmitt Smith. Vereen seems a decent enough RB but NO is looking good going into the season in a tough division. This pick will likely be #24 or below. Trade value chart #28(660)<#56(340)+2012 #24/2(future round half value--740/2=370). Results: :rocker:

#60(B.Harris) for #73(effectively Mallett) and #138(Cannon). This trade looks to be for the future as neither is expected to contribute right away. I say effectively because I dont think Mallett is taken here unless they have 2 picks together in the 3rd. The question remains is there a player on the board at #60 that COULD have contributed to this team in 2011? I will specifically look at LBs Houston and Wilson's careers going forward. But I also look at #59(Little) and wonder what could have been. Trade value chart #60(300)<#73(225)+#138(37)=262. Results

#92(Barksdale)+#125(Jones) for Raiders 2012 #2. I think BB had reservations at the steak house and had get out of there early. Clearly a bad trade, BB has "fallen in love" with the 2nd round picks if not the players in it and now we are paying a premium. How he could come to the microphone and say that a future 2nd will be better than any 2 players left on the board? Bad PR move. Clearly no one wanted to swap a 3rd for a future 2nd again given BBs enamoration. We had to sweeten the deal? And make it 20 picks before we were on the clock?? The Raiders should be better next year so suggesting #18 is about right. Players to watch that could have contributed this year: Boling, Ballard, Gates, and we could have picked up Cannon here. #92(132)+#125(47)<#50/2(200)

I will make it a little simpler. Would you trade LB Houston/Wilson and G Boling/WR Gates for QB Mallett and next years #2 from Oakland? That is a good question. I know I'd like anther OLB and G on this team.

 

[supafly]

BB the tradesman was at it again but lets take a look at the trades and see which ones we agree on and which ones we dont.

#28(Ingram) for #56(Vereen) and New Orleans 2012 First--few could argue the value BB got here unless Ingram goes on to emulate Emmitt Smith. Vereen seems a decent enough RB but NO is looking good going into the season in a tough division. This pick will likely be #24 or below. Trade value chart #28(660)<#56(340)+2012 #24/2(future round half value--740/2=370). Results: :rocker:

#60(B.Harris) for #73(effectively Mallett) and #138(Cannon). This trade looks to be for the future as neither is expected to contribute right away. I say effectively because I dont think Mallett is taken here unless they have 2 picks together in the 3rd. The question remains is there a player on the board at #60 that COULD have contributed to this team in 2011? I will specifically look at LBs Houston and Wilson's careers going forward. But I also look at #59(Little) and wonder what could have been. Trade value chart #60(300)<#73(225)+#138(37)=262. Results

#92(Barksdale)+#125(Jones) for Raiders 2012 #2. I think BB had reservations at the steak house and had get out of there early. Clearly a bad trade, BB has "fallen in love" with the 2nd round picks if not the players in it and now we are paying a premium. How he could come to the microphone and say that a future 2nd will be better than any 2 players left on the board? Bad PR move. Clearly no one wanted to swap a 3rd for a future 2nd again given BBs enamoration. We had to sweeten the deal? And make it 20 picks before we were on the clock?? The Raiders should be better next year so suggesting #18 is about right. Players to watch that could have contributed this year: Boling, Ballard, Gates, and we could have picked up Cannon here. #92(132)+#125(47)<#50/2(200)

I will make it a little simpler. Would you trade LB Houston/Wilson and G Boling/WR Gates for QB Mallett and next years #2 from Oakland? That is a good question. I know I'd like anther OLB and G on this team.

I wish people would stop with the 'Cannon will not be able to do anything right away' stuff. Don't tell that to Marcus Cannon, his doctors, or his family. He had already begun treatment a couple of weeks ago, and even his doctors say that there's absolutely no reason why he shouldn't be ready for training camp.

Yes, I am certainly not counting on it, but I am not counting it out either. It's an extremely treatable form of lymphoma, and there's nothing that would suggest that he is a 2012 'project' as most think.

Of course, only time will tell, and I can see both angles. I just want to remind you and everyone else who doubts that he can see the field this yr that is not at all true.

Other than that nitpick, you did a nice job on the subject matter of the thread in my opinion. Very interesting.

 

[supafly]

Clearly a bad trade, BB has "fallen in love" with the 2nd round picks if not the players in it and now we are paying a premium. How he could come to the microphone and say that a future 2nd will be better than any 2 players left on the board?

I think he feels as though there's a TON of value not only talent wise, but also financially/cap efficiency wise.

If I had to guess, I'd easily say that Belichick's favorite round is the #2nd.

Tons of potential "1st round talent," not to mention guys that are left, lower contracts, trade potential/value, etc. If I were picking (again..we can all thank God I'm not), I would have to agree with his thinking. Almost all of the players are left -1 round, all of the guys that were projected to be firsts that are left, a high trading value round, well....you get the idea.

Again, I can't for the life of me see 'how we're now paying a premium,' but I do respect your opinion and views.

 

[Sciz]

So this is basically another "I like this LB that Bill didn't, so I'm going to complain about it" thread? Houston is a linear pass rush specialist who is not adequate against the run and was describe in one report I saw today as "uncompetitive." Does not sounds like a Patriot. Wilson has huge injury concerns and isn't an OLB anyway. He's an ILB, hence going to play OLB for a 4-3 team.

 

[eom]

#92(Barksdale)+#125(Jones) for Raiders 2012 #2. I think BB had reservations at the steak house and had get out of there early. Clearly a bad trade, BB has "fallen in love" with the 2nd round picks if not the players in it and now we are paying a premium. How he could come to the microphone and say that a future 2nd will be better than any 2 players left on the board? Bad PR move.

I think he said that he felt next year's second rounders would be better players than any currently left on the board.
which is probably true.

it's kind of funny that the guy gets ripped for trading down --- 'away' from better players, and you rip him for trading up towards better players.

I was a little surprised that it took both a third and a 4th, but whatever.
it was the 28th in the 3rd and 28th in the 4th, so it makes some kind of sense.
I'd make that trade every time.

and btw --- you have absolutely no idea where that 2012 pick will fall.
raiders could be bottom 5 for all you know.

 

[Kicking_Game]

and btw --- you have absolutely no idea where that 2012 pick will fall.
raiders could be bottom 5 for all you know.

Agree. The Raiders are losing CB Nnamdi and OL Gallery, and many think they had a poor draft. I think we'll see a return to the "old" Raiders and that will be a top 40 pick.

 

[Sciz]

Agree. The Raiders are losing CB Nnamdi and OL Gallery, and many think they had a poor draft. I think we'll see a return to the "old" Raiders and that will be a top 40 pick.

And now that Seymour got paid, he can go back to sloth mode

 

[jeffbiologist]

So this is basically another "I like this LB that Bill didn't, so I'm going to complain about it" thread? Houston is a linear pass rush specialist who is not adequate against the run and was describe in one report I saw today as "uncompetitive." Does not sounds like a Patriot. Wilson has huge injury concerns and isn't an OLB anyway. He's an ILB, hence going to play OLB for a 4-3 team.

No, not exactly. It is a "unaddressed needs" thread. A OG and a LB could contribute to THIS 2011 team alot more than Mallett and that 2nd rounder. The contracts are cheaper. There are no guarantees either way, but just as I wouldnt have traded Seymour I'm of the opinion if you treat every year like its your last you do a better job. I think BB has fallen in love with the 2nd round and it finally COST us players instead of added them. JMHO.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Thanks for the thread and time in analyzing the values and spelling it all out. Good work. However, I don't come to the same conclusion.

re: I will make it a little simpler. Would you trade LB Houston/Wilson and G Boling/WR Gates for QB Mallett and next years #2 from Oakland? That is a good question. I know I'd like anther OLB and G on this team.

Cannon taken in 5th is a higher rated lineman than Boling. Gates seems good but is already too few game snaps for even Edelmann / Price to see the field.

Houston OLB - I fell in love with his measureables but fell in hate with this character and lazy motor. Not a Patriot type player.

These players listed (not drafted) might not even see the field anyway to what could be a redshirt type year with little / no OTA's. BB won't let them on the field if they don't know where to line up or don't know their assignments. Shoot, even in a normal year, very few NEP rookies see much playing time.
So why waste a year of their contract in a messed up (no CBA) offseason.

And there are LOTS of young & promising NEP 2nd /3rd year players - high draft picks - who need playing time to further develop.

I'd rather gamble on Oaklands 2nd in 2012 and Mallet (good QB injury insurance). Plus Mallet is an appreciating asset who will likely fetch a higher draft pick in a few years and will be our #2 QB in one year if Hoyer is traded or not resigned.

 

[Metaphors]

BB the tradesman was at it again but lets take a look at the trades and see which ones we agree on and which ones we dont.

Try looking at it this way. Belichick specifically wanted Solder, Dowling, Vereen and Ridley. His goal in the draft was to get those guys and maximize the value of all his other picks (trading them, taking targeted sliders).

While I have no idea if it is true or not, it does seem to jibe with what happened:

#17 - Solder was gone to the Giants or Colts so the Pats needed to take him at 17 or lose him. If they were interested in Quinn or Kerrigan, their interest in Solder trumped any thoughts of trade up to get them (and likely any thoughts of taking them at #17).

#28 - Reasonably confident Dowling will be there at the top of the 2nd round, this pick becomes a choice between taking a slider (nobody really qualifies) and trying to get a 1st rounder in 2012. Saints had the best offer.

#33 - With Buffalo a possibility at #34, Dallas at #40 and Houston lurking with a possible trade-up from #42, it would be risky business moving down from #33 and expecting Dowling to be there. Considering Buffalo stuck at #34 instead of trading down with a team looking for a QB, it indicates the trade action at the top of the 2nd was more lukewarm than you might think.

#56 - Small possibility that Detroit takes Vereen at #57 but a greater chance that Cleveland continues to trade down with a team (Miami, Green Bay) looking to get ahead of the Pats at #60 for a RB. They must really like Vereen specifically to not risk it.

#60 - Too early for Ridley with J.Houston (obviously not interested) and Mallett (not interested yet) being the obvious slippers. Texans gives the best offer to move down (though not a great one) so better to get something.

#73 - Still too early for Ridley but the run on RB is ongoing and Washington is sitting there at #79. Better to get him now and declare mission accomplished on the draft objectives.

#74 - With the main business done, the quest for value begins. Now Mallett looks like a much better bargain. That value likely trumped any standing offers to trade into 2012.

#92 - Now the room goes into full-tilt 2012 mode. Let's see. Want a 2012 2nd round pick even though all we have are picks after this draft's talent cliff. Bonus if the team has the potential to suffer a biblical collapse and have that 2012 pick be a near 1st rounder. 1-800-CRAZY-AL.

#138 - Now we are at the point in the draft where nobody will trade up using 2012 picks. Tremendous luck with Cannon still on the board.

Rest of draft - Lee Smith may have been a specific target and they allocated pick #159 to get him. Or the TE draft tick finally kicked in. The last two rounds were for whoever the ST coaches wanted.

This scenario makes far more sense than the notion the Pats just let the draft play out and made it up as they want along.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Thanks for the thread and time in analyzing the values and spelling it all out. Good work. However, I don't come to the same conclusion.

re: I will make it a little simpler. Would you trade LB Houston/Wilson and G Boling/WR Gates for QB Mallett and next years #2 from Oakland? That is a good question. I know I'd like anther OLB and G on this team.

Cannon taken in 5th is a higher rated lineman than Boling. Gates seems good but is already too few game snaps for even Edelmann / Price to see the field.

Houston OLB - I fell in love with his measureables but fell in hate with this character and lazy motor. Not a Patriot type player.

These players listed (not drafted) might not even see the field anyway to what could be a redshirt type year with little / no OTA's. BB won't let them on the field if they don't know where to line up or don't know their assignments. Shoot, even in a normal year, very few NEP rookies see much playing time.
So why waste a year of their contract in a messed up (no CBA) offseason.

And there are LOTS of young & promising NEP 2nd /3rd year players - high draft picks - who need playing time to further develop.

I'd rather gamble on Oaklands 2nd in 2012 and Mallet (good QB injury insurance). Plus Mallet is an appreciating asset who will likely fetch a higher draft pick in a few years and will be our #2 QB in one year if Hoyer is traded or not resigned.

I know about Cannon and Boling, we could honestly use BOTH of them on the team with us losing Neal and likely replacing Mankins as well. Maybe players like Gates/Wilson dont make the field but on special teams, they have a year more experience and they are known assets/commodities going into next years draft. Maybe Guyton gets hurt in camp,etc. I dont see Mallett as any different than OConnell. He didnt do anything and we got nothing for him.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

I know about Cannon and Boling, we could honestly use BOTH of them on the team with us losing Neal and likely replacing Mankins as well. Maybe players like Gates/Wilson dont make the field but on special teams, they have a year more experience and they are known assets/commodities going into next years draft. Maybe Guyton gets hurt in camp,etc. I dont see Mallett as any different than OConnell. He didnt do anything and we got nothing for him.

True enough- Jeff what you say about Boling and possibly needing an extra OG. And Cannon is not even 100% to start the season depending upon the cancer recovery. Hopefully Solder is advanced enough to be the starting LT (if not then start Vollmer at LT). And I am hoping money saved not re-signing Light is used instead to long term Mankins contract. As much as I have respected Lights contribution over last many years - better to invest $$ on a lineman (Mankins) in his prime than one in twilight years.

Mankins next to Solder would help him out tremendously his rookie year. If Solder can start - it is nice to know NEP have now 2 good young strong TE's than can be on his side to help block (Gronk / Lee ). And Crump is no slouch either blocking - just not the pass catcher he used to be.

As far as your opinion on Mallet (re: OConnell) - our opinions couldn't be further apart. But to each his own....

Finally, to add to your indepth analysis - the 2nd we picked up from Oakland for 2012 - could be used when FA opens to trade for another teams established OLB. Or even trade one of our 2 first rounders if an elite OLB is available for trade. That would be sick and the final piece to the puzzle IMHO. Those 2012 high round picks give NEP alot of flexibility as trade bait when the league year resumes- for other teams RFA's as well.

 

[supafly]

True enough- Jeff what you say about Boling and possibly needing an extra OG. And Cannon is not even 100% to start the season depending upon the cancer recovery. Hopefully Solder is advanced enough to be the starting LT (if not then start Vollmer at LT). And I am hoping money saved not re-signing Light is used instead to long term Mankins contract. As much as I have respected Lights contribution over last many years - better to invest $$ on a lineman (Mankins) in his prime than one in twilight years.

Mankins next to Solder would help him out tremendously his rookie year. If Solder can start - it is nice to know NEP have now 2 good young strong TE's than can be on his side to help block (Gronk / Lee ). And Crump is no slouch either blocking - just not the pass catcher he used to be.

As far as your opinion on Mallet (re: OConnell) - our opinions couldn't be further apart. But to each his own....

Finally, to add to your indepth analysis - the 2nd we picked up from Oakland for 2012 - could be used when FA opens to trade for another teams established OLB. Or even trade one of our 2 first rounders if an elite OLB is available for trade. That would be sick and the final piece to the puzzle IMHO. Those 2012 high round picks give NEP alot of flexibility as trade bait when the league year resumes- for other teams RFA's as well.

Lots of great points here. I agree and enjoyed your thoughts.

 

[OldEngland]

That 2012 second round trade was premeditated if you listen to the interviews. It was possibly also the reason Ridley went high, get the next vital player at 73 we want to have before we leave it to 138. As with what most of BB does, that interests me in what he saw in it value wise for the 2nd rounder for 2012.

The Raiders had a good season last year, and compared to previous years overachieved. They went 6-0 in their division on the way to 8-8 as we all followed hoping they would tank it as usual. That would be a tough ask to do it again, new HC and all. I would expect the Chargers and Chiefs to be a little better this year. This year they play the NFC North and AFC East in 2011 schedule, tough divisions. With the three supposedly easier games, Bills, Dolphins, Vikings away.

The Saints, although obviously a great team and super bowl contenders, play in potentially one of the harder divisions on last years form with three 10 win teams. This year they also are scheduled against to play two tough divisions, the AFC South and coincidently the NFC North.

I guess I am cheering on the NFL North next year and am slightly happier about the value of these picks having seen the schedules.

 

[eom]

There's a rumor floating around that belichick will trade oakland's second back to oakland for wimbley plus a 2013 second

 

[mgteich]

We had a need for 2 OG's who could start in the next 2 years. Belichick didn't pick one at 73 with several on the board (Cannon, Rackley, Moffitt and Boling). That's fine if he thought that one would be there at 92. But then, without waiting to see who was there, Belichick traded 92 and 125 into 2012. Clearly OG was NOT a high priority.

Cannon was an absolutely awesome pick. nfln has him as the best pick on Day 3 of the draft.

 

[Lamanai]

Cannon could be a nice pick for us...someday. However, don't discount the effects of chemotherapy on the body. Perhaps someone in the medical community can chime in here, but having had family members go through chemo, I can tell you Marcus Cannon is not going to be participating fully in the rigors of an NFL training camp in July. His strength and stamina will be compromised. If he is finishing treatments in late June, walking from the parking lot to the facility will be might be a chore.

I think he's a PUP/IR candidate for sure.

 

[The Scrizz]

Agree. The Raiders are losing CB Nnamdi and OL Gallery, and many think they had a poor draft. I think we'll see a return to the "old" Raiders and that will be a top 40 pick.

And they did too well so they had to fire their coach. Same ol' Raiders.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Try looking at it this way. Belichick specifically wanted Solder, Dowling, Vereen and Ridley. His goal in the draft was to get those guys and maximize the value of all his other picks (trading them, taking targeted sliders).

While I have no idea if it is true or not, it does seem to jibe with what happened:

#17 - Solder was gone to the Giants or Colts so the Pats needed to take him at 17 or lose him. If they were interested in Quinn or Kerrigan, their interest in Solder trumped any thoughts of trade up to get them (and likely any thoughts of taking them at #17).

#28 - Reasonably confident Dowling will be there at the top of the 2nd round, this pick becomes a choice between taking a slider (nobody really qualifies) and trying to get a 1st rounder in 2012. Saints had the best offer.

#33 - With Buffalo a possibility at #34, Dallas at #40 and Houston lurking with a possible trade-up from #42, it would be risky business moving down from #33 and expecting Dowling to be there. Considering Buffalo stuck at #34 instead of trading down with a team looking for a QB, it indicates the trade action at the top of the 2nd was more lukewarm than you might think.

#56 - Small possibility that Detroit takes Vereen at #57 but a greater chance that Cleveland continues to trade down with a team (Miami, Green Bay) looking to get ahead of the Pats at #60 for a RB. They must really like Vereen specifically to not risk it.

#60 - Too early for Ridley with J.Houston (obviously not interested) and Mallett (not interested yet) being the obvious slippers. Texans gives the best offer to move down (though not a great one) so better to get something.

#73 - Still too early for Ridley but the run on RB is ongoing and Washington is sitting there at #79. Better to get him now and declare mission accomplished on the draft objectives.

#74 - With the main business done, the quest for value begins. Now Mallett looks like a much better bargain. That value likely trumped any standing offers to trade into 2012.

#92 - Now the room goes into full-tilt 2012 mode. Let's see. Want a 2012 2nd round pick even though all we have are picks after this draft's talent cliff. Bonus if the team has the potential to suffer a biblical collapse and have that 2012 pick be a near 1st rounder. 1-800-CRAZY-AL.

#138 - Now we are at the point in the draft where nobody will trade up using 2012 picks. Tremendous luck with Cannon still on the board.

Rest of draft - Lee Smith may have been a specific target and they allocated pick #159 to get him. Or the TE draft tick finally kicked in. The last two rounds were for whoever the ST coaches wanted.

This scenario makes far more sense than the notion the Pats just let the draft play out and made it up as they want along.

You know, I can buy that. But it also tells me that I think he had problems finding trading partners this year. My guess is that with another slight trade back we could have gotten all these guys and still netted a 4th to close that monstrous hole we had from #74 to #138. Smith is going to try and emulate Bartrum and be a LS/TE I think. NOTE-not 1 of our picks was a 4-down player, not one was noted on playing ST. So much for 4 down ST "value" eh?

 

[MaineMan]

Cannon could be a nice pick for us...someday. However, don't discount the effects of chemotherapy on the body. Perhaps someone in the medical community can chime in here, but having had family members go through chemo, I can tell you Marcus Cannon is not going to be participating fully in the rigors of an NFL training camp in July. His strength and stamina will be compromised. If he is finishing treatments in late June, walking from the parking lot to the facility will be might be a chore.

I think he's a PUP/IR candidate for sure.

Well, I experienced six weeks of a 24/7 chemo drip pre-surgery and then six weeks of full-bore postsurgical chemo at age 50 for colon cancer. The post-surgical chemo was the maximum strength the doctors would give anyone and they felt comfortable submitting me to it because I was "in such good health otherwise."

I worked full-time on the road doing computer and network security and landscape gardening on the side through all but the last week of the first round of chemo and all but the last couple weeks of the second round. I admit that I was seriously pancaked by the end of that second round, but I was probably back to about 80%-90% six weeks after the end of it - and I was 50 and certainly no athlete.

That said, different types of cancer require different chemo "****tail" regimes and the one for Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma may well be much more devastating than what I had. AND, of course, each patient reacts in their own way, regardless what kind of shape they're in at the start.

If Cannon finishes chemo in early June, full participation in TC might be a stretch and NFI/PUP seems reasonable, but you never know.