Belichick the contrarian Moneyballer of the NFL

[Poker]

I love watching a value investor like Buffett, whoops I mean Belichick, play the game. Here are a number of areas where he exploits "mispricings" by the rest of the league, and goes against the grain.

1. The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones.
2. The league overvalues draft pundits and media expert opinions.
3. The draft grossly overvalues this year vs. the medium and long term
4. The league undervalues position versatility,
5. The league undervalues special teams contribution
6. The league overvalues "measurables" and undervalues character and football IQ.
7. The league overvalues their own ability to assess talent, and undervalues the need to have quantity of picks to compensate for the misses.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

BB's economics major is put to good use.

Part of the value is that BB has the security to do what's best for the long-term future of the franchise as well. Most coaches and GMs are under pressure to produce for today, so I think the Krafts deserve some credit for the stability they've been able to create.

A long-term value pick like Mallett wouldn't happen under a regime that needs instant results.

 

[Observer]

I love watching a value investor like Buffett, whoops I mean Belichick, play the game. Here are a number of areas where he exploits "mispricings" by the rest of the league, and goes against the grain.

1. The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones.
2. The league overvalues draft pundits and media expert opinions.
3. The draft grossly overvalues this year vs. the medium and long term
4. The league undervalues position versatility,
5. The league undervalues special teams contribution
6. The league overvalues "measurables" and undervalues character and football IQ.
7. The league overvalues their own ability to assess talent, and undervalues the need to have quantity of picks to compensate for the misses.

Man the whole league is so terrible at evaluating players I wonder how any of them ever win the superbowl...

 

[BadMoFo]

I love watching a value investor like Buffett, whoops I mean Belichick, play the game. Here are a number of areas where he exploits "mispricings" by the rest of the league, and goes against the grain.

1. The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones.
2. The league overvalues draft pundits and media expert opinions.
3. The draft grossly overvalues this year vs. the medium and long term
4. The league undervalues position versatility,
5. The league undervalues special teams contribution
6. The league overvalues "measurables" and undervalues character and football IQ.
7. The league overvalues their own ability to assess talent, and undervalues the need to have quantity of picks to compensate for the misses.

And that is why we've won 10 straight Super Bowls.

 

[cavtroop]

Man the whole league is so terrible at evaluating players I wonder how any of them ever win the superbowl...as often as we have since Belichick became coach.

There, fixed that for you

 

[crowell33]

Man the whole league is so terrible at evaluating players I wonder how any of them ever win the superbowl...

You have a great point, it seems like there about 15 - 20 teams every year that have virtually no chance to win a Superbowl no matter how high they draft year after year, Raiders, Lions, 49ers, Bengals, Browns, Buffalo, etc, etc.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

I love watching a value investor like Buffett, whoops I mean Belichick, play the game. Here are a number of areas where he exploits "mispricings" by the rest of the league, and goes against the grain.

1. The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones.
2. The league overvalues draft pundits and media expert opinions.
3. The draft grossly overvalues this year vs. the medium and long term
4. The league undervalues position versatility,
5. The league undervalues special teams contribution
6. The league overvalues "measurables" and undervalues character and football IQ.
7. The league overvalues their own ability to assess talent, and undervalues the need to have quantity of picks to compensate for the misses.

I love watching the Belichick sycophants constantly talk out of their bums when it comes to draft value. It really is hilarious guys.
Belichick had 2 1's, 2 2's, 2 3's and all his did was fill roster spots.
The spin we're hearing now is this was a weak draft. Not for DL/OLB it wasn't but none could play for Belichick.
For the patriots this was a treading water draft.
This team is not any better now than it was pre-draft because no players taken are upgrades over who they'll replace next year.
Problem is in the NFL if you're not improving then you're backsliding. There is no standing still in the NFL. This was a standing still draft.
It's never a good sign when the one player everyone is excited about is a QB who will contribute years from now if he ever does.
Poor draft.

 

[BadMoFo]

There, fixed that for you

He won 3 Super Bowls. Other teams have won 8. What am I missing?

 

[Synovia]

I love watching the Belichick sycophants constantly talk out of their bums when it comes to draft value. It really is hilarious guys.
Belichick had 2 1's, 2 2's, 2 3's and all his did was fill roster spots.
The spin we're hearing now is this was a weak draft. Not for DL/OLB it wasn't but none could play for Belichick. .

We don't need any DL. We've got Ty Warren, Wilfork, Stroud, Deadrick, Love, Pryor, etc. We're fine on the DL.

 

[Observer]

You have a great point, it seems like there about 15 - 20 teams every year that have virtually no chance to win a Superbowl no matter how high they draft year after year, Raiders, Lions, 49ers, Bengals, Browns, Buffalo, etc, etc.

Absolutely agree! We leave the Raiders, Lions, 49ers, Bengals, Browns, and Buffalo in the dust.. Go PATS!

 

[Raymond]

This team is not any better now than it was pre-draft because no players taken are upgrades over who they'll replace next year.

I'm not doing backflips over some of the choices either, but come Nov-Dec "This year" you have absolutely no clue if, the O-line and RB changes will result in a stronger running game. Never mind "next year".

 

[The Boston Patriot]

I love watching the Belichick sycophants constantly talk out of their bums when it comes to draft value. It really is hilarious guys.
Belichick had 2 1's, 2 2's, 2 3's and all his did was fill roster spots.
The spin we're hearing now is this was a weak draft. Not for DL/OLB it wasn't but none could play for Belichick.
For the patriots this was a treading water draft.
This team is not any better now than it was pre-draft because no players taken are upgrades over who they'll replace next year.
Problem is in the NFL if you're not improving then you're backsliding. There is no standing still in the NFL. This was a standing still draft.
It's never a good sign when the one player everyone is excited about is a QB who will contribute years from now if he ever does.
Poor draft.

Kewl, we're going 14-2 this coming year! I can live with that!

 

[DarrylS]

This team is being rebuilt on the fly, and being built for the long haul. There are no quick fixes, and what happened this weekend makes perfect sense to this fan.

There is a lack of faith in the FA process, and BB is using the draft masterfully. Next year 4 more picks in the first two rounds... it is all good folks.

 

[captain insano]

I love watching a value investor like Buffett, whoops I mean Belichick, play the game. Here are a number of areas where he exploits "mispricings" by the rest of the league, and goes against the grain.

1. The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones.
2. The league overvalues draft pundits and media expert opinions.
3. The draft grossly overvalues this year vs. the medium and long term
4. The league undervalues position versatility,
5. The league undervalues special teams contribution
6. The league overvalues "measurables" and undervalues character and football IQ.
7. The league overvalues their own ability to assess talent, and undervalues the need to have quantity of picks to compensate for the misses.

true true true true and true. all true.:rocker:

 

[Poker]

I love watching the Belichick sycophants constantly talk out of their bums when it comes to draft value. It really is hilarious guys.
Belichick had 2 1's, 2 2's, 2 3's and all his did was fill roster spots.
The spin we're hearing now is this was a weak draft. Not for DL/OLB it wasn't but none could play for Belichick.
For the patriots this was a treading water draft.
This team is not any better now than it was pre-draft because no players taken are upgrades over who they'll replace next year.
Problem is in the NFL if you're not improving then you're backsliding. There is no standing still in the NFL. This was a standing still draft.
It's never a good sign when the one player everyone is excited about is a QB who will contribute years from now if he ever does.
Poor draft.

You are like the classic short term investor/speculator. Belichick thinks like a long-term investor. No one has been consistently better over the past 10 years. If you were a GM in the league he would be eating your lunch and exploiting your short term tendencies. That's not saying he can win the super bowl every year or every other year...nobody can.

 

[Gwedd]

You are like the classic short term investor/speculator. Belichick thinks like a long-term investor. No one has been consistently better over the past 10 years. If you were a GM in the league he would be eating your lunch and exploiting your short term tendencies. That's not saying he can win the super bowl every year or every other year...nobody can.

This is why the big investment firms love day-traders. they eat them for lunch.

 

[Patspsycho]

This is why the big investment firms love day-traders. they eat them for lunch.

Big investment firms do the same thing; they short the market all the time. Soros broke the bank of England when he bet $10 billion against the pound.

 

[Patspsycho]

He won 3 Super Bowls. Other teams have won 8. What am I missing?

Quite a bit.

1) 10 plus wins every season BB has been here.
2) 4 AFC titles
3) 3 of 4 superbowls
4) 8 AFC East champs
5) Winning 14 or more games, 4 times (no other coaches have this record)
6) .714 winning playoff %
7) .716 season win %
8) only active coach with 15 playoff wins.
9) I'm not going to mention he is only 1 of 3 coaches to have an undefeated season because that's moot.

 

[Triple-T]

I love watching the Belichick sycophants constantly talk out of their bums...

This team is not any better now than it was pre-draft because no players taken are upgrades over who they'll replace next year.

Nice. Take shots at people who recognize that we actually have an amazing coach and then turn around and talk right out of your respective hole....

Solder is likely better than Light
Dowling is likely better than Arrington
Vereen is likely better than Taylor
Ridley is likely better than Morris
Mallet is better than Crompton

(and I only use likely because not a single college player has played an NFL snap, so no one knows nothing yet.)

 

[JoeSixPat]

Man the whole league is so terrible at evaluating players I wonder how any of them ever win the superbowl...

Absolutely. But Belichick knows this... the draft is a crap shoot.

Which is why he doesn't give a crap about the players that the talking heads tout.

He's looking for "his kinda" player... and while he knows he's going to strike out with many if not most, only by consistently drafting "his" players - rather than the ones that the media and fans decide he should take, will he be able to perpetuate his system.

In other words, "volume, volume, volume" is the general rule of thumb when it comes to drafting effectively.

There's more to it than that of course but ultimately, most of the guys drafted this year won't make it - regardless of which GM selected them.

You can't ignore that. Belichick doesn't which is why he's always stockpiling draft picks - which are often used to gain valuable veterans, i.e. Welker and Moss.

Another difference for fans this year is they forget we couldn't trade draft picks into players. Once things are settled BB will be free to work a deal with next years picks - which may be why you saw some stockpiling of future draft choices again this draft.

It's all very fascinating when you can really appreciate the chess game that Belichick has played all along here.