Some mea cupa, some come upance

[jeffbiologist]

The last couple of years I have been a staunch critic of BB simply because of the numbers. Before last years draft he was above average with picks but not at the top. What last year did for me was show the VALUE of his trading and accumulating....but I will again throw out the question, is it DRAFTING or COACHING?? The chess player he is I think most will agree he could take another team and beat this team. And I understand the "chicken or the egg" arguement, is it the actual picks or possibly the draft value and coaching that makes them better players?? I think we could all take a look at draft boards from the last 5 years and say if player X was drafted by the Pats his career would have been much different, right?? While we can praise the additions of Woodhead and alot of no name free agents does that not again praise the "value" and "coaching" aspects over draft prowess? I understand there are alot of moving parts moving in concert and BB has forgotten more than any of us will know, but really how important is it who and where we draft if we cant set the player up to suceed in the system as well? For every Vollmer there is a Brace, for every Mccourty a Chad Jackson. Is last year's success a break from the average (Maroney/Meriweather) or are we due a market correction that will make us all sick? Truth is 1 year doesnt tell us much at all, and before we either run to the 100th floor or jump off lets collectively just hope that we get to see this coming group in action this year under BB's command. THAT is what I pay to see.

 

[MaineMan]

IOW, the question is, "Nature or Nurture?"

How about "a bit of both"?

Plus, "scheme."

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I think it's a combination of the two. Part of evaluating a draft pick is whether you think they'll accept coaching. We've passed several times on some headcases (Dez Bryant, I'm looking at you).

As for the correction, I think we're in for a bit simply because 2010 was so ridiculously outstanding. You don't get a Pro Bowl starter (McCourty), 4 other starters (Gronk, Spikes, Cunningham, Mesko), a guy who contributes like a starter (Hernandez), plus several future potential starters in Price and Deaderick (who did start a bit but had issues). If we got 4 starters out of this draft, it'd still be a down year compared to 2010.

I don't think we were anywhere as bad as the draft record shows between 2006 and 2008 though. We had a solid track record from 2001 to 2005, and if we do anything like that, I'll be happy.

 

[MaineMan]

Just another thought. I don't thank a draft is over for BB just because it's "over" for us, so I have a difficult time taking any one draft in isolation from what may transpire later wrt some of the guys from that class.

For instance, when the BB signed Ninkovich almost immediately after he was cut by the Saints, it seemed fairly ordinary "camp body" stuff. But, looking back at the 2006 draft, Ninko was taken by the Saints at #135, just 8 spots after Minny took his teammate, Ray Edwards, and just one spot before the Pats took O'Callaghan (and the Pats ended up taking Mincey in the 6th). Ninko had tied Edwards for the team lead in sacks at Purdue a couple years running. I don't know who all the Pats had on their board for 2006, but it could have been that Ninko was BB's "guy" at #136 and, when he went off the board to NO, he just took the next BPA on his board. So, maybe Ninko wasn't just a random FA signing.

Another example: there were four DTs taken in the top 12 of the 2001 draft - Gerard Warren, Richard Seymour, Damione Lewis and Marcus Stroud. So, maybe it's no coincidence that BB snapped up Stroud so quickly after he was cut by Buffalo (without re-signing G. Warren)? Maybe Stroud was his second choice in 2001 if Seymour had been taken by the Browns?

 

[BTTA]

So where's the mea culpa? I read a lot of hypothesis and analysis.

I think you are right to relate developmental ability of a coaching staff and quality of drafting...nobody can truly sort those two out entirely.

 

[fester]

Just another thought. I don't thank a draft is over for BB just because it's "over" for us, so I have a difficult time taking any one draft in isolation from what may transpire later wrt some of the guys from that class.

Another example: there were four DTs taken in the top 12 of the 2001 draft - Gerard Warren, Richard Seymour, Damione Lewis and Marcus Stroud. So, maybe it's no coincidence that BB snapped up Stroud so quickly after he was cut by Buffalo (without re-signing G. Warren)? Maybe Stroud was his second choice in 2001 if Seymour had been taken by the Browns?

I think you are overthinking it for vets who have been in the league for more than 2 or 3 years, have some game film and have the right body types for the Patriots. Yes, the initial draft scouting process probably ID'ed numerous players who could potentially be Patriot-fits. Most of those players were drafted by other teams. And, yes, there is value in having in-depth long term scouting reports on players.

However, Stroud had been in the league long enough for the Pats to see him play at a high level against NFL competition in a role similiar to the role he would be asked to play for the Patriots. In that case, his original draft position and original draft scouting has minimal impact.

I would agree with you that young players, or players with very little non-ST film would have a much larger portion of their Patriots scouting profile populated by draft scouting rather than professional scouting, so it may be a bit of truth with Ninkovich, but I think this only applies for basically low-dollar camp competition players where the Pats make a low-risk gamble based on information that is two or three years old.

 

[borg]

Last year was a crazy deep draft because underclassmen escaped college to get the cash before rookie caps are installed. BB was ready ...and he pounced. I personally think this draft has little depth and therefore I don't expect much beyond a couple solid additions and a little depth at the bottom of the roster.

As far as Stroud goes....the #32 rushing D in the league dropped the guy. Can you say...training camp insurance

 

[MaineMan]

Last year was a crazy deep draft because underclassmen escaped college to get the cash before rookie caps are installed. BB was ready ...and he pounced. I personally think this draft has little depth and therefore I don't expect much beyond a couple solid additions and a little depth at the bottom of the roster.

As far as Stroud goes....the #32 rushing D in the league dropped the guy. Can you say...training camp insurance

IMHO, the Bills DL (and safeties) might have been the best part of their run-D, with Stroud's end of the line being the best v. the run. The Bills' biggest run-D problem was that their LBs (at least, those who were healthy) couldn't stop anyone who got past the DL.

In terms of Stroud's contributions, he was playing his first year at DE in a 3-4. It was also a brand new 3-4 for the team and presumably not as well coached up as the Pats' 3-4. And yet Brace and G. Warren put together had fewer tackles and about the same number of sacks that Stroud got on his own (and Stroud was the one who "struggled adjusting to 3-4 DE?"). The reason our run-D was so much better (even with a "less than optimal" DL) was that our LB's are actually capable of defending it.

I think it's been noted before here that Stroud was more likely dropped because his back-end-loaded deal kicked his 2010 salary up to around $8M than because of poor performance.

 

[reflexblue]

The last couple of years I have been a staunch critic of BB simply because of the numbers. Before last years draft he was above average with picks but not at the top. What last year did for me was show the VALUE of his trading and accumulating....but I will again throw out the question, is it DRAFTING or COACHING?? The chess player he is I think most will agree he could take another team and beat this team. And I understand the "chicken or the egg" arguement, is it the actual picks or possibly the draft value and coaching that makes them better players?? I think we could all take a look at draft boards from the last 5 years and say if player X was drafted by the Pats his career would have been much different, right?? While we can praise the additions of Woodhead and alot of no name free agents does that not again praise the "value" and "coaching" aspects over draft prowess? I understand there are alot of moving parts moving in concert and BB has forgotten more than any of us will know, but really how important is it who and where we draft if we cant set the player up to suceed in the system as well? For every Vollmer there is a Brace, for every Mccourty a Chad Jackson. Is last year's success a break from the average (Maroney/Meriweather) or are we due a market correction that will make us all sick? Truth is 1 year doesnt tell us much at all, and before we either run to the 100th floor or jump off lets collectively just hope that we get to see this coming group in action this year under BB's command. THAT is what I pay to see.

If this is a mea culpa why did you include meriweather, he was voted to the pro bowl by his peers.

 

[MaineMan]

I think you are overthinking it for vets who have been in the league for more than 2 or 3 years, have some game film and have the right body types for the Patriots. Yes, the initial draft scouting process probably ID'ed numerous players who could potentially be Patriot-fits. Most of those players were drafted by other teams. And, yes, there is value in having in-depth long term scouting reports on players.

However, Stroud had been in the league long enough for the Pats to see him play at a high level against NFL competition in a role similiar to the role he would be asked to play for the Patriots. In that case, his original draft position and original draft scouting has minimal impact.

I would agree with you that young players, or players with very little non-ST film would have a much larger portion of their Patriots scouting profile populated by draft scouting rather than professional scouting, so it may be a bit of truth with Ninkovich, but I think this only applies for basically low-dollar camp competition players where the Pats make a low-risk gamble based on information that is two or three years old.

I don't know about the bolded part above. I won't say that Stroud played exclusively at DT for his career in JAX or for his first two seasons in BUF, but I think it's safe to say that he played primarily on the inside in a 4-3 until last season. There's no question that Stroud NOW falls into the category of a vet the Pats pro scouts have been following through his career (which, I think, applies to Ninko as well). My only real speculation was that, given his similar body type and college experience (to Seymour's), Stroud might have been BB's second choice - at the time. Also, IIRC, there was substantial speculation that the Pats had tried to sign Stroud during the 2008 off-season, but were out-bid by BUF.

OTOH, yeah, it probably is a reach to bring Stroud into the conversation and my point - that there are probably always other players that the Pats are looking at in a given draft who, for one reason or another, they don't get to immediately but may do so, eventually - DOES probably apply mostly to guys taken in the 4th or later. However, when considering the question of "Drafting v. Coaching", especially in terms of isolated draft classes, I think it's helpful to broaden the view of what the Pats eventually end up with out of a given class (besides Ninko, we also have Page and Ojinnaka on board from 2006, and we traded for the latter two).

 

[VJCPatriot]

If this is a mea culpa why did you include meriweather, he was voted to the pro bowl by his peers.

It doesn't even sound like a mea culpa to me. It sounds more like a, I may have been wrong, but here's where I was right. LOL.

 

[Sciz]

Another example: there were four DTs taken in the top 12 of the 2001 draft - Gerard Warren, Richard Seymour, Damione Lewis and Marcus Stroud.

(Random fact: The Patriots have had 4 of the top 12 picks in the 2001 draft on their roster at one point)

 

[MaineMan]

(Random fact: The Patriots have had 4 of the top 12 picks in the 2001 draft on their roster at one point)

As far as random facts go, this it probably one of the cooler ones. Makes me wonder how many of Dareus, Watt, Jordan, Heyward, Wilkerson (etc.) we will have had on our roster ten years from now (assuming BB is still coaching).