Trading Into 2012

[mgteich]

The open question is which will be the first pick traded for a 2012 pick (along with possible 2011 compensation). I expect two additional 2012 picks.

 

[MaineMan]

My guess would be either the #74 or #92 or the extra 3rd we get from trading down from the #28 into the 2nd round. One of these may be traded for a 2012 2nd.

Next best guess is that we accept a 2012 6th or 7th as the "small change" that equalizes the value of a larger deal.

What I don't see is BB accepting a 2012 1st or 2nd as the major part of the compensation deal for either the #28 or #33.

 

[mgteich]

With regard to 28 or 33, does it make a difference whether we accept a 2012 second or a 2011 3rd as part of our compensation? I wouldn't think so given that we intend to a 3rd or two into 2012. BTW, I could 60 being traded into 2012.

In any case, I would like to see 2 additional 2012 2nds.

With regard to small change, I want 2011 7th's to get a jump on the UDFA market. The players can contact the draftees. There is no such options for UDFA's.

My guess would be either the #74 or #92 or the extra 3rd we get from trading down from the #28 into the 2nd round. One of these may be traded for a 2012 2nd.

Next best guess is that we accept a 2012 6th or 7th as the "small change" that equalizes the value of a larger deal.

What I don't see is BB accepting a 2012 1st or 2nd as the major part of the compensation deal for either the #28 or #33.

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

With regard to 28 or 33, does it make a difference whether we accept a 2012 second or a 2011 3rd as part of our compensation? I wouldn't think so given that we intend to a 3rd or two into 2012. BTW, I could 60 being traded into 2012.

In any case, I would like to see 2 additional 2012 2nds.

With regard to small change, I want 2011 7th's to get a jump on the UDFA market. The players can contact the draftees. There is no such options for UDFA's.

Assuming that there is still a draft and not a Free Agency situation for seniors and draft eligible juniors. You seem to be neglecting the very basic fact that if the judge sides with Brady in Brady v NFL, the court system has the ability to run train on the infrastructure created by the NFL to bring in college talent. Hopefully it will never come to it, but consider that we are looking at a labor situation that has a group of owners of what should be independently operating entity's acting together (i.e. collusion) in an attempt to fix wages for labor participants. That's a pretty awful position for the NFL to be caught in

Point blank, trades for high draft picks in 2012 are a mistake in this years draft. The landscape is very much uncertain and with a reasonably deep draft and plenty of ammunition, the focus shouldn't be on building draft stores for 2012 but rather finding the players who can make an impact for you now.

 

[mgteich]

We have 5 picks in 2012. Kraft wants more. We trade forward more than any team in the league. We have (and will have even more) picks that we will likely trade into 2012. Get used to it!
==========================
Consider a scenario. We trade down once and pick up a 3rd and trade the 3rd acquired plus #92 into 2012. That would leave us with ONLY four picks in the first two rounds of 2011 and additional picks in rounds 3, 4, 5 and 6.

I am certainly satisfied with eight 2011 draftees, although I would expect an additional late pick or two for a second trade down.

You are certainly free to come back in a week and again point out why Kraft and Belichick have made mistakes in their analysis of the CBA situation. After all, I'm sure that you think that you have a better persperctive than they do.

Assuming that there is still a draft and not a Free Agency situation for seniors and draft eligible juniors. You seem to be neglecting the very basic fact that if the judge sides with Brady in Brady v NFL, the court system has the ability to run train on the infrastructure created by the NFL to bring in college talent. Hopefully it will never come to it, but consider that we are looking at a labor situation that has a group of owners of what should be independently operating entity's acting together (i.e. collusion) in an attempt to fix wages for labor participants. That's a pretty awful position for the NFL to be caught in

Point blank, trades for high draft picks in 2012 are a mistake in this years draft. The landscape is very much uncertain and with a reasonably deep draft and plenty of ammunition, the focus shouldn't be on building draft stores for 2012 but rather finding the players who can make an impact for you now.

 

[capetide]

IMO, one way or the other, the Patriots will end up with a couple of picks (possibly 2nd and/or 3rd round) for 2012. I hope the first couple of rounds fall the right way and they can pick up their DE, OLB and OG/OT and then start moving picks around. Free agency will be back sooner or later and we can expect they'll be active in filling out the bottom of the roster that way.

 

[MaineMan]

With regard to 28 or 33, does it make a difference whether we accept a 2012 second or a 2011 3rd as part of our compensation? I wouldn't think so given that we intend to a 3rd or two into 2012. BTW, I could 60 being traded into 2012.

In any case, I would like to see 2 additional 2012 2nds.

With regard to small change, I want 2011 7th's to get a jump on the UDFA market. The players can contact the draftees. There is no such options for UDFA's.

Well, my thinking is that the trade deals down from the #28 to #30 (Jets) thru #37 (Browns) would yield the 2011 2nd in question, PLUS a minimum of a 5th and a 7th, up to a 4th and a 5th. At this point, I'd much rather have the 2011 2nd than a 2012 1st. I might accept a 2012 sixth instead of a 2011 7th, although I fully agree with stocking up on 2011 7ths to take the place of the UDFAs.

Continuing with the trades down from #28 -- beginning with the #38 (Cards) thru the #49 (Jags), we'd be getting the 2011 2nd-rounder in question PLUS a 2011 3rd and some change. For one of THOSE, I might accept a 2012 2nd instead of the 2011 3rd. I should note that neither the Skins (#41) nor the Vikes (#43) could even do the deal for the #28 without using a 2012 pick (likely 2nd) since they wouldn't have enough 2011 ammo.

For trade deals down from the #33, I'd take a similar approach.

I guess that, in both cases, it boils down to netting:
2011 2nd
+ 2011 3rd/4th -OR- a 2012 2nd/3rd
+ 2011 late-rounder.

However, my favorite BB trade technique is what might be called the "three-stepper". For example:

Trade the #28 to GBY for #32, 129 (4th), 163 (5th)
Trade the #32 to DAL for #40, 110 (4th), 179 (6th)
Trade the #110, 179 (from DAL) plus our own #74 (3rd) to NOL for #56.

We've now turned the #28 + #74 (880) into #40 and #56 (840), PLUS an extra 4th and extra 5th. And we still have the #33 and #60. At that point, we have the ammo to trade back up into the 3rd and/or throw the #92 at a 2012 2nd with virtually zero risk.

This is the kind of thing that leaves other teams going, "Wait. WTF just happened?"

 

[mgteich]

While I agree with you, I suspect that we we'll draft a RB instead of an OLB.

IMO, one way or the other, the Patriots will end up with a couple of picks (possibly 2nd and/or 3rd round) for 2012. I hope the first couple of rounds fall the right way and they can pick up their DE, OLB and OG/OT and then start moving picks around. Free agency will be back sooner or later and we can expect they'll be active in filling out the bottom of the roster that way.

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

We have 5 picks in 2012. Kraft wants more. We trade forward more than any team in the league. We have (and will have even more) picks that we will likely trade into 2012. Get used to it!
==========================
Consider a scenario. We trade down once and pick up a 3rd and trade the 3rd acquired plus #92 into 2012. That would leave us with ONLY four picks in the first two rounds of 2011 and additional picks in rounds 3, 4, 5 and 6.

I am certainly satisfied with eight 2011 draftees, although I would expect an additional late pick or two for a second trade down.

You are certainly free to come back in a week and again point out why Kraft and Belichick have made mistakes in their analysis of the CBA situation. After all, I'm sure that you think that you have a better persperctive than they do.

Kraft and Belichick's desire for a greater draft stock in 2012 is irrelevant if the Brady lawsuit goes against the Owners and the NFL, yet you just completely ignored that potential outcome...again. In a perfect world, they would absolutely be moving 74 or 92 for a 2012 2nd rounder amongst other moves if they don't like the way the draft is falling for them. And I would gladly support it.

Moving selections back a year--when you don't like what you're seeing on the draft board--nets you a full round which is a substantial bump when you consider the drop off in success rates from round to round. The percentages for 5 year starters for a 2nd round pick and a 3rd pick, for example, are very much stacked in the favor of the 2nd round pick. The numbers back up the strategy. Sadly though, that strategy just isn't on the table when you've got a present and very legitimate threat to the systems in place that allow that strategy to be employed.

 

[Triumph]

IMO, one way or the other, the Patriots will end up with a couple of picks (possibly 2nd and/or 3rd round) for 2012. I hope the first couple of rounds fall the right way and they can pick up their DE, OLB and OG/OT and then start moving picks around. Free agency will be back sooner or later and we can expect they'll be active in filling out the bottom of the roster that way.[/QUOTE]

Not to mention that BB can always use the additional 2012 picks to trade for players this season.

My dream would be to draft Ingram and snag Demarcus Ware from Dallas.

 

[patfanken]

As far as trading down goes, BB is playing chess while the rest of the league is playing checkers.

What his did last year was remarkable. It was literally slight of hand magic. We went into that draft with a low first round - 3 second rounders and ZERO 3rd rounders.

Well BB drove us all nuts with his numerous trades, but at the end of the day, we still wound up with a low end first rounder. We still had 3 second rounders though all in different positions. BUT NOW we suddenly have 2 THIRD round selections, which he THEN turns one of them into this years 33rd pick in the draft AND that doesn't count STILL having a pick in every round and ending the day with 4 7th rounders

Forget about the quality of the players we got. Just think about how he played the game, which included a couple of trade UPs as well, most notably to get Gronkowski

We certainly rarely get the players we expect. And some drafts have been "better than others". But it is always a pleasure to watch the way the Pats manipulate the draft to our advantage. Creating 2 3rd round picks when we started with none and STILL have the same number of picks in the first rounds that you started with is simply remarkable......and very cool

 

[captain stone]

I voted that Bill somehow has a moment of clarity and does not trade any of his picks into 2012.
He needs all of them this year to fill the open, infected holes at OLB, OL & DE.

 

[DW Toys]

Assuming that there is still a draft and not a Free Agency situation for seniors and draft eligible juniors. You seem to be neglecting the very basic fact that if the judge sides with Brady in Brady v NFL, the court system has the ability to run train on the infrastructure created by the NFL to bring in college talent. Hopefully it will never come to it, but consider that we are looking at a labor situation that has a group of owners of what should be independently operating entity's acting together (i.e. collusion) in an attempt to fix wages for labor participants. That's a pretty awful position for the NFL to be caught in

Point blank, trades for high draft picks in 2012 are a mistake in this years draft. The landscape is very much uncertain and with a reasonably deep draft and plenty of ammunition, the focus shouldn't be on building draft stores for 2012 but rather finding the players who can make an impact for you now.

100% agree with this. I have no idea what some posters are thinking? This has to be the year to cash in. If there is a new CBA and Draft as we know it, we have Merriweather, Mankins, Kaczur and Sanders to unload for picks in 2012 if we know there is a Draft as it has been and we are desperate for picks. It would be a stupid move an un-BB like to gamble on blowing choices in this class. If the NFL Players win, see ya later Draft perhaps.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

I voted that Bill somehow has a moment of clarity and does not trade any of his picks into 2012.
He needs all of them this year to fill the open, infected holes at OLB, OL & DE.

The voice of Reason .Thank you. I want to see someone prove to me without a shadow of a doubt that there will be a Draft in 2012 as we know it.
Last week BB said himself there will be a day he cashes in.

This is common sense this year unless we get a new CBA this week.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

As far as trading down goes, BB is playing chess while the rest of the league is playing checkers.

What his did last year was remarkable. It was literally slight of hand magic. We went into that draft with a low first round - 3 second rounders and ZERO 3rd rounders.

Well BB drove us all nuts with his numerous trades, but at the end of the day, we still wound up with a low end first rounder. We still had 3 second rounders though all in different positions. BUT NOW we suddenly have 2 THIRD round selections, which he THEN turns one of them into this years 33rd pick in the draft AND that doesn't count STILL having a pick in every round and ending the day with 4 7th rounders

Forget about the quality of the players we got. Just think about how he played the game, which included a couple of trade UPs as well, most notably to get Gronkowski

We certainly rarely get the players we expect. And some drafts have been "better than others". But it is always a pleasure to watch the way the Pats manipulate the draft to our advantage. Creating 2 3rd round picks when we started with none and STILL have the same number of picks in the first rounds that you started with is simply remarkable......and very cool

With all due respect, his Draft choices other than last year have been mediocre at best. Entertaining yes, because he plays chess. But he has lost his ass in four of the last five anyway and traded around some superb talent in the attempt to outsmart all the other 31. If you posters are impressed with the picks we got and don't care about the ones we did not, it is time for agonizing reappraisal.
17% that I have stated is the NFL average of success about what makes an starting upper tier talent a win. We have received about average in the last five Cousins.
DW Toys

 

[mgteich]

I do not think that Belichick need 7 picks in the first four rounds to fill needs at OLB, OL & DE. Also, I would not be surprised if we picked 7 times in ther first 125 and still traded tow picks into 2012.

QUOTE=captain stone;2524851]I voted that Bill somehow has a moment of clarity and does not trade any of his picks into 2012.
He needs all of them this year to fill the open, infected holes at OLB, OL & DE.[/QUOTE]

 

[patsfaninpa]

Tom Curran had his draft preview show on CSNE tonight. Have to agree with him. He thinks we pick Cam Jordan at 17. Trade 28 and 33.
Pick up a first in 2012.

We can prob trade 28 to SF, Tennessee or Arizona if they don't draft a qb early. Say 28 to Tennessee. We get their first in 2012 and 3rd this year.

We can prob trade 33 to Minny for their 2nd this year and 2nd next year. They don't have a 3rd this year. Already traded it to us for R. MOSS.

We still have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds. But, added a 1st and 2nd in 2012. On 2 teams who in theory aren't that good. Arizona and Minny. My thinking is this.

1. There will be a 2012 draft. And, there will be a rookie wage scalek. Making those picks even cheaper to sign than now.

2. You probably aren't going to get as much out of rookies in 2011 as normal. Because no off-season program. You might just get them for a couple of weeks of camp and go. Many won't be ready to play this fall.

Our Top 6
17 - Cam Jordan - DE - Cal - RDE for the next 10yrs.
42 - Danny Watkins - G - Baylor - Age 27 will push him down. Replaces S. Neal and starts at rg
60 - Jerrel Jernigan - wr - troy - Reminds me of D Branch
69 - Chris Carter - OLB - Fresno St - Might take him at 60. Working out with Willie Mac and the Pat Hill seal of approval
74 - Willie Smith - T - E Carolina Developmental T to replace Light
92 - Greg Romeus - OLB/DE - Pitt Pup/IR
125 - Steven Ridley - RB - LSU Also plays special teams. Replaces Sam Morris