Pro Football Weekly's player value chart

[PATSNUTme]

Here is a little different way of slotting players. Instead of the normal top 300+ type rankings, they slot the players as to where they think a player should be drafted.

ProFootballWeekly.com - PFW's exclusive draft value chart

 

[BelichickFan]

NUT - just to be picky, your use of "should" can be a little misleading depending how you read it. Before the Nawrocki bashing begins, this is where he thinks they WILL be drafted not where he ranks them.

My current 7 are :

1a - Castonzo
1b - Watkins
2a - Ayers
2b - Bailey
3a - R. Williams
3b - Boling
4 - Fusco

From the PFW chart :

About right : Castonzo, Watkins, Ayers, Bailey
I have too low : Williams, Boling
I have (way) too high : Fusco

The chart works for me. Obviously I have to find a new 4th rounder and hope for Fusco in the 5th round. There's a ton of solid RB in the area I picked Williams and later so if we miss out on him that's OK. I could move Ben Ijalana in for Boling or I may move Boling higher on my list and take a RB a little later.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Using that chart:

1. Cam Jordon
2.Watkins
3. Heyward
4 Reed
5 Ijalana
6 Gates
7. Buster Skine
8. Johnny White
9. The steal of the draft- Herzlich- even if he needs a year to get better.

 

[BelichickFan]

Usin that chart:

1. Cam Jordon

I would take Jordan or Watt over Castonzo but I am assuming Jordan and Watt will be gone. The chart shows them maybe available though.

 

[PATSNUTme]

NUT - just to be picky, your use of "should" can be a little misleading depending how you read it. Before the Nawrocki bashing begins, this is where he thinks they WILL be drafted not where he ranks them.

My current 7 are :

1a - Castonzo
1b - Watkins
2a - Ayers
2b - Bailey
3a - R. Williams
3b - Boling
4 - Fusco

From the PFW chart :

About right : Castonzo, Watkins, Ayers, Bailey
I have too low : Williams, Boling
I have (way) too high : Fusco

The chart works for me. Obviously I have to find a new 4th rounder and hope for Fusco in the 5th round. There's a ton of solid RB in the area I picked Williams and later so if we miss out on him that's OK. I could move Ben Ijalana in for Boling or I may move Boling higher on my list and take a RB a little later.

Ok, WILL works. And as far a the Nawrocki bashing, it's a little early for Box. He needs his morning coffee and daily dose of Todd McShay before entereing into the debate.

 

[PATSNUTme]

I would take Jordan or Watt over Castonzo but I am assuming Jordan and Watt will be gone. The chart shows them maybe available though.

Actually I've been very unsettled with players in this draft, but either Watt or Jordon would make me happy. I give Jordon the edge because he may be able to play on his feet.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Ok, WILL works. And as far a the Nawrocki bashing, it's a little early for Box. He needs his morning coffee and daily dose of Todd McShay before entereing into the debate.

Who's Todd McShay?

Since this was what Nawrocki claims he's gleaned from NFL people there's no reason to say anything about him. Interesting,

4A Jah Reid, Anthony Sherman
4C Karl Klug

 

[DW Toys]

Actually I've been very unsettled with players in this draft, but either Watt or Jordon would make me happy. I give Jordon the edge because he may be able to play on his feet.

It is a crap Draft and we have to accept it. Theory is BB builds up picks so he can maneuver. Well the talent is top loaded and falls off severely.The only good news is in our wheel house there is sufficient talent. He needs to burn some picks because we already have youth on our roster, and cherry pick immediate starters, not projects IMO.

I too, have been up and down on this Draft. There will be more surprises than ever with some top names being flops more than ever or the mediocre middle and bottom of the Draft, a few will have the light turn on.
Potential first round grade busts could include:
Newton
Gabbert
Bowers
Fairley
Carimi
Quinn
Aldon Smith
Ayers
Austin
Clayborn
Locker
Houston
Ingram
Mallett
Jimmy Smith
(some might be injury related)
Some are Draft worthy, but with inflated first round value because of said weak Draft and would drop a round or two.

This is over 43% of those with first round or near first round ratings.

Notice how many small school prospects are pushing into the upper rounds. This means there was less talent in schools like Michigan, OSU, USC, Miami, LSU etc.


In the past you could almost put the first five picks in stone. That set the rest of the Draft more than 50% of the time. This year the weak QB class versus the massive needs for QBs (7 out of the top 10) means that every body that did not Draft Newton or Gabbert will be wanting out of the top ten.

I think you can throw that stupid value chart away if a Team needs quantity, not specific quality at a position. Teams like:
Redskins (needs picks desperately. Maybe #33 (worth way more in trade value since first round in one day) ,#60,#92 gets us to Redskins#10 with perhaps #193. They could get Mallett at #33, they can get a Sherrod or a Baldwin at their #41 and still have #60 and #92. I like #10,#17,#28 in round one plus #74 in the third, Trade #125 in the 4th for a 3rd in 2012 which will make BB feel better, and finally #159 in the fifth. Five picks should work about right. If they have a first round pay scale, this will be a better scenario)
Cowboys
Cardinals
Broncos (You can maneuver here if Miller was your hearts desire)
Titans
Bengals
Vikings (needs picks)
Both Cowboy and 49er sites have targeted us as trading partners not that it is worth anything.

According to this format for the Pats my choices are:
#10=Quinn OLB
#17=Watt DE
#28=Watkins OG/RT
#74=Moffitt OG/C
#159=Murray RB/KR/WR (6'1", 212LBS AND 71 RECEPTIONS IN 2010.WOULD ACTUALLY BE OUR BIGGEST WR WITH 4.4 SPEED)

Plus the obligatory 2012 3rd rounder.

All above should impact the 2011 roster.

DW Toys

 

[MaineMan]

Who's Todd McShay?

Since this was what Nawrocki claims he's gleaned from NFL people there's no reason to say anything about him. Interesting,

4A Jah Reid, Anthony Sherman
4C Karl Klug

Drat. I was hoping other teams would have missed Sherman so we could snag him in the 6th. He could be worth a 4th to us, instead of another TE/Crumpler successor.

 

[patchick]

Using that chart:

1. Cam Jordon
2.Watkins
3. Heyward
4 Reed
5 Ijalana
6 Gates
7. Buster Skine
8. Johnny White
9. The steal of the draft- Herzlich- even if he needs a year to get better.

We seldom agree on prospects, but I'd happily take that draft. (Though I'm sorry to say I can't share your optimism on Herzlich.)

 

[PATSNUTme]

We seldom agree on prospects, but I'd happily take that draft. (Though I'm sorry to say I can't share your optimism on Herzlich.)

Well, welcome out of the darkness and into the sunlight. :rocker:

 

[Sciz]

Who's Todd McShay?

Since this was what Nawrocki claims he's gleaned from NFL people there's no reason to say anything about him. Interesting,

4A Jah Reid, Anthony Sherman
4C Karl Klug

Sherman and Klug are two guys that I really like. I'm surprised to see Klug ranked that high, because he's the kind of guy who won't fit in most schemes.

 

[onegr8om]

It is a crap Draft and we have to accept it. Theory is BB builds up picks so he can maneuver. Well the talent is top loaded and falls off severely.The only good news is in our wheel house there is sufficient talent. He needs to burn some picks because we already have youth on our roster, and cherry pick immediate starters, not projects IMO.

I too, have been up and down on this Draft. There will be more surprises than ever with some top names being flops more than ever or the mediocre middle and bottom of the Draft, a few will have the light turn on.
Potential first round grade busts could include:
Newton
Gabbert
Bowers
Fairley
Carimi
Quinn
Aldon Smith
Ayers
Austin
Clayborn
Locker
Houston
Ingram
Mallett
Jimmy Smith
(some might be injury related)
Some are Draft worthy, but with inflated first round value because of said weak Draft and would drop a round or two.

This is over 43% of those with first round or near first round ratings.

Notice how many small school prospects are pushing into the upper rounds. This means there was less talent in schools like Michigan, OSU, USC, Miami, LSU etc.


In the past you could almost put the first five picks in stone. That set the rest of the Draft more than 50% of the time. This year the weak QB class versus the massive needs for QBs (7 out of the top 10) means that every body that did not Draft Newton or Gabbert will be wanting out of the top ten.

I think you can throw that stupid value chart away if a Team needs quantity, not specific quality at a position. Teams like:
Redskins (needs picks desperately. Maybe #33 (worth way more in trade value since first round in one day) ,#60,#92 gets us to Redskins#10 with perhaps #193. They could get Mallett at #33, they can get a Sherrod or a Baldwin at their #41 and still have #60 and #92. I like #10,#17,#28 in round one plus #74 in the third, Trade #125 in the 4th for a 3rd in 2012 which will make BB feel better, and finally #159 in the fifth. Five picks should work about right. If they have a first round pay scale, this will be a better scenario)
Cowboys
Cardinals
Broncos (You can maneuver here if Miller was your hearts desire)
Titans
Bengals
Vikings (needs picks)
Both Cowboy and 49er sites have targeted us as trading partners not that it is worth anything.

According to this format for the Pats my choices are:
#10=Quinn OLB
#17=Watt DE
#28=Watkins OG/RT
#74=Moffitt OG/C
#159=Murray RB/KR/WR (6'1", 212LBS AND 71 RECEPTIONS IN 2010.WOULD ACTUALLY BE OUR BIGGEST WR WITH 4.4 SPEED)

Plus the obligatory 2012 3rd rounder.

All above should impact the 2011 roster.

DW Toys

About your draft...YES PLEASE! I would be so happy with that.

 

[SamBamsFan]

Can I play?

17. Anthony Castonzo OT
28 Muhammed Wilkerson DE
33. Justin Houston OLB
60. Shane Vereen RB
74. Orlando Franklin OG
92. Curtis Brown CB
125. Tyler Sash SS
159. Martin Parker NG
193. Bruce Miller DE/OLB

:singingone:singing:

 

[patfanken]

According to this format for the Pats my choices are:
#10=Quinn OLB
#17=Watt DE
#28=Watkins OG/RT
#74=Moffitt OG/C
#159=Murray RB/KR/WR (6'1", 212LBS AND 71 RECEPTIONS IN 2010.WOULD ACTUALLY BE OUR BIGGEST WR WITH 4.4 SPEED)

Plus the obligatory 2012 3rd rounder.

All above should impact the 2011 roster.

DW Toys

I would love this result, and although I agree with your basic strategy, I don't see both Quinn and Watt being at 10 and 17. Watt will probably be there. So here is my ideal scenario we draft in the positions you suggest and pick up only 5 players

1 go to 10 and get Watt/Jordan
2.At 17 Kerrigan falls to us
3.At 28 Carmini for the OL
4. Here I'm hoping for a red shirt guy like Romeus or BCarter
5. I love your pick here and I'd be fine with Murray

BTW in my ideal world we'd have enough left in the 6th or 7th to add Herzlick to the red shirt brigade

Bottom line - we'd pick up 3 guys who would be at worst situational starters Plus we'd pick up a guy who has the talent to be a first rounder when healthy in 2012, and the archetype versatile offensive player in Murray.

This draft would make me "tingle"

 

[PATSNUTme]

Who's Todd McShay?

Since this was what Nawrocki claims he's gleaned from NFL people there's no reason to say anything about him. Interesting,

4A Jah Reid, Anthony Sherman
4C Karl Klug

I like Klug very much but where do you play him. Is he a Mike Wright type or can he drop 10lbs and be a backup ILB?

Cliff Matthews is another that I like. He will make up for what he's is lacking in measurables with instincts and effort. Would be a better fit at OLB.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I like Klug very much but where do you play him. Is he a Mike Wright type or can he drop 10lbs and be a backup ILB?

Cliff Matthews is another that I like. He will make up for what he's is lacking in measurables with instincts and effort. Would be a better fit at OLB.

You forget Klug successfully battled Big-10 OL weighing in the 250-260 range and smaller - slim him down to 255-260 (15-20 lb drop), his agility and speed improve and he's now your top candidate for LOLB ... who could eventually move inside. Pair him with Cunningham on early downs and the run defense gets stronger on the edge. A former high school running back, he's got pretty good field vision already in the run game, and he's a hard enough worker for everything else.

That said I mentioned him, Reid, and Sherman because the fourth round was a significant jump from where everybody else has them. Reid I expected to move that high, he's a good OT, the others are a pleasant surprise (for them, bad for my hopes of BB taking Klug).

 

[patriotscpfc]

The irony of Nolan Nawrocki having Quinn at 1A when he didn't have him in the first round 3 weeks ago is astounding.

 

[dryheat44]

Well, as a theoretical exercise, with my choice of players in the range (17th pick excepted) and no trades (in other words, fantasy), my shopping list would look like this:

17. Cameron Jordan DE
28. Michael Sherrod OT
33. Randall Cobb WR
60. Clint Boling OG (I think this is the Pats Fans universal selection)
74. Brooks Reed OLB
92. Delone Carter RB
125. Jalil Brown CB
159. Greg McElroy QB
193. Deunta Williams S

Yeah, I'd take that, light up a big cigar made up of bourbon, stout, and Columbian virgins and happily call it a day.

 

[PATSNUTme]

The irony of Nolan Nawrocki having Quinn at 1A when he didn't have him in the first round 3 weeks ago is astounding.

The value board below is based on considerable feedback from NFL teams and projects the league value of players, pinpointing a specific area where players likely will be drafted. It is important to note that these values do not reflect where PFW thinks the players should be drafted or what type of pros they will become; that is better reflected by PFW's grades in its top 10 prospects at each position.