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From his MMQB:
Read more: Carolina Panthers request junior college tape on Cam Newton - Peter King - SI.comThe Patriots should come out of the draft with an extra 2012 first-round pick, unless I'm getting lied to a lot.
Last year, I thought the 33rd overall pick would generate heavy action in trade (as did the Rams, who held the first pick in the second round). The theory was that because the NFL took a 20-hour break after round one, teams would have all day Friday before round two kicked off to get desperate for a player they had rated as a first-rounder. But then the Rams really liked tackle Rodger Saffold of Indiana, and never really got much action on the pick because there wasn't a player teams felt they had to have. This year, I think that changes. New England has the 33rd pick (by way of the Panthers, who dealt it to acquire a Patriots' third-rounder last year so they could take Armanti Edwards). The way I read the draft right now, there could be as many as eight teams among the first 17 picks in the second round that will want a quarterback, and perhaps only three QBs left worth taking high in the second round.
Overall pickTeamProspects
34 Buffalo - Unlikely to pick QB here, but you never know.
35 Cincinnati - They know Palmer's out. Need a QB.
38 Arizona - Might be waiting for Marc Bulger. Too risky?
39 Tennessee - Desperate for good-guy QB.
41 Washington - Could be willing to roll dice with Grossman.
43 Minnesota - Can't believe they won't draft QB high.
45 San Francisco - Harbaugh dreams of Andy Dalton, I think.
49 Jacksonville - Time for some competition for Garrard.
The Patriots couldn't be in a better spot. There could be three second-round-caliber passers (Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick) available after day one, and a fourth if Ryan Mallett gets past Seattle at 25. Of course, teams could also trade up to the late first round too. New England is in prime position there, also, with the 28th overall choice.
On the universal draft-pick trade chart, invented a generation ago to standardize what value teams assign to each pick (though it's not gospel; some teams barely glance at it), the 28th pick is worth 660 points, and the 33rd pick worth 580 points. Teams trading for a pick in the following draft usually ascribe a choice one round higher to be fair. (Thus the Patriots' deal of a 2010 third-rounder for Carolina's second-rounder in 2011. Sometimes teams get lucky; New England moved up, as it turns out, 57 slots by making that deal a year ago.)
But the Patriots could successfully argue -- I believe -- that the 33rd pick is worth more than a 2012 first-rounder this year. The primary reason is they could have more than one bidder for the pick, because of the paucity of quarterback prospects and the need of more than one team by the time round one ends. Let's say the 49ers are desperate to move up for Dalton. The 49ers, picking 45th, might have to slip the Patriots extra value beyond what the trade chart says to move those 12 slots. Perhaps a first-rounder in 2012 and, say, a third- or fourth- this year. If they don't do it, some other team might.
Actually, starting around pick 26 in the first round, several teams are in good position to trade down. Baltimore (26th overall) may be willing to deal down for an extra three, and the Ravens could still take a cornerback with low-first, high-second-round value. Chicago (29) and the Jets (30) might be willing to trade down too.
Whatever happens, I think there will be a quarterback market at the end of day one, and I think the Patriots are positioned perfectly to take advantage of it. Will there ever be a year New England's won't be in position to control a draft? It's amazing the job Bill Belichick's done in consistently giving the Pats an edge there.
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