Badger and supafly talk pass rushers.

[Badger]

Funny how time begins to erode everyone's memories. Right after the Pats were blown up by the Jets everyone was in agreement that the woeful lack of a pass rush was our big glaring need and had to be addressed before this team would again be a serious Super Bowl contender. Now I am reading all of these posts and see how we need to draft another running back or another O-Lineman etc.... Are you kidding me? Do you really think Mark Ingram is going to get this team over the top and back to the Super Bowl? Reality says that we are not picking 2 guys in the 1st round. Never happens that way with Bill, never. We will make 1 pick and trade down or into the future. If we pick another RB or OL, who will rush the passer? We can not get back to the top without some type of defensive playmaker who is going to make a difference in consistently getting to the other team's QB. We have simply got to get a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball to compete with teams like the Steelers, Jets and Ravens with their Super Bowl caliber defenses. Without a pass rusher again this year, we will continue to be also-rans.

 

[supafly]

Reality says that we are not picking 2 guys in the 1st round. Never happens that way with Bill, never..

Wilfork and Watson say hello at 21 and 32

 

[Badger]

Wilfork and Watson say hello at 21 and 32

1 time he keeps the picks. Every other time he wheels and deals. Everybody knows a guy who just will not spend any money. He has a beat up old car and a TV from the 1980's. He makes good money, but just can't find it in himself to splurge a little. He keeps socking it away in his savings and 401k for a rainy day. Save, save, save, save, always worried about the future. That is Bill Belichick. Problem is that Tom Brady is not going to be around forever. Tick, tick, tick.

 

[supafly]

Funny how time begins to erode everyone's memories. Right after the Pats were blown up by the Jets everyone was in agreement that the woeful lack of a pass rush was our big glaring need and had to be addressed before this team would again be a serious Super Bowl contender. Now I am reading all of these posts and see how we need to draft another running back or another O-Lineman etc.... Are you kidding me? Do you really think Mark Ingram is going to get this team over the top and back to the Super Bowl? Reality says that we are not picking 2 guys in the 1st round. Never happens that way with Bill, never. We will make 1 pick and trade down or into the future. If we pick another RB or OL, who will rush the passer? We can not get back to the top without some type of defensive playmaker who is going to make a difference in consistently getting to the other team's QB. We have simply got to get a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball to compete with teams like the Steelers, Jets and Ravens with their Super Bowl caliber defenses. Without a pass rusher again this year, we will continue to be also-rans.

Several things about this post:

1. BB has indeed taken 2 first rd picks before. Name me all of these times when we had 2, and didn't use both, so I can see a pattern

2. I agree with you in the hopes of getting a D player. The problem is that this will also be the 5th year in a row that the first pick taken was on that side of the ball. The law of averages may say that we pick offensively with the first pick, depending on BB's 'value' at certain positions. If he sees more value at OL or even RB, then he may very well go with that. We still need to address the offense too--and if you can do both, that's a no-brainer. We still have other places to improve besides DE.

Poster "dryheat44" is one of our defensive gurus here. His latest mock has us taking OT Smith from USC, mostly b/c he does not see much value after Watt and Jordan are picked first. Those guys you want may not be there in that range.

3. Ingram is always marked as top 10 player rankings overall, sometimes even top 5-6. If BB thinks we can get him as a franchise RB, so be it. It would honestly be a steal at 17.

4. Same goes with the OL picks, if Costanzo, Smith, etc are of more value to BB, the same scenario plays out.

5. Just b/c we don't pick a DE with the first pick, does not mean that we won't address the situation. We can easily choose Wilkerson or Heyward at 28 or 33--or even somewhere around there depending on whether or not we trade that pick. DE will be addressed for sure. We may even take Sheard as an OLB too. This way we cover all of the bases, improve the team in many aspects, and it's still a great draft.

6. The fans are often not the focus of BB's draft picking, so whatever we 'think' he may do--just go ahead and pick the opposite. However, at the end of the day, something will be done to improve the defensive situation.

7. We have lots of injured guys coming back on the line, T.Warren, Wright, and Pryor. We also have not re-signed G.Warren to this point, and he played quite serviceable last yr. We also went out and signed Marcus Stroud. The line will already be improved, and BB may not feel that pick #1 is needed. He may see value at improving depth and competition later on. He may even totally shock the hell out of us, and go after Cullen Jenkins in free agency--whenever it begins. I seriously doubt it, but maybe that's his plan to add a big player, who knows? Maybe he honestly doesn't project any of these guys to our system as well as we do?

 

[supafly]

1 time he keeps the picks. Every other time he wheels and deals. Everybody knows a guy who just will not spend any money. He has a beat up old car and a TV from the 1980's. He makes good money, but just can't find it in himself to splurge a little. He keeps socking it away in his savings and 401k for a rainy day. Save, save, save, save, always worried about the future. That is Bill Belichick. Problem is that Tom Brady is not going to be around forever. Tick, tick, tick.

I can appreciate where you're going, and I am not immune to the frustration that may come along with that. I understand, we all hype the draft up for 4 months non-stop, only to see our 'shrewd' businessman put picks in the bank for next yr. It is not popular with the fans, however winning is, and this is how he addresses the present while addressing the future at the same time.

It's all about the value. Preying on the weak, those who live 'in the moment,' while he sees the bigger picture. Believe me, if he sees fit to take 2 players in round one, he'll do it. Eventually he will do it again, depending on our situation, and what our needs are. I bet you'll enjoy those 2 first rounders in a couple/few yrs when we need another franchise QB. Eventually they'll get spent, in the meantime he may very well not see 2 players of first rd grades who project well into our system.

As far as Brady not getting any younger--we went 14-2 with a young team. Take away a few plays and we may have beaten the NYJ, the Steelers the next week, and gone right back to the SB (where we may very well have lost). I do not think we are too far away from making a return appearance. A couple of tweaks here and there, and we're back to the driver's seat.

 

[supafly]

Actually, since the last time BB took a first pick on the other side of the ball, all the way back in 2006, we have not only picked defensively first, we have picked defensively with MANY of our first several picks. As I said before, it may be the law of averages this year--who knows?

2007 (first 2)

Pick one---Meriweather DB
Pick two--K.Brown DL

2008 (first 3)

Pick one--Mayo LB
Pick two--Wheatley DB
Pick three--Crable LB

2009 (first 3)

Pick one--Chung S
Pick two--Brace DL
PIck three--Butler DB

2010 (3 out of first 4)

Pick one--McCourtey DB
Pick two--Gronkowski TE (the one and only exception--also followed by 2 more defensive picks, making it 3 out of the first 4)
Pick three--Cunningham LB
Pick four--Spikes LB

----------

So, that's 11 of the top 12 picks we've had spent on defense since taking an offensive player 5 years ago (Maroney). After choosing 11 out of 12, is it really that big of a stretch to think that we may choose offensively first?

 

[Badger]

Several things about this post:

1. BB has indeed taken 2 first rd picks before. Name me all of these times when we had 2, and didn't use both, so I can see a pattern

2. I agree with you in the hopes of getting a D player. The problem is that this will also be the 5th year in a row that the first pick taken was on that side of the ball. The law of averages may say that we pick offensively with the first pick, depending on BB's 'value' at certain positions. If he sees more value at OL or even RB, then he may very well go with that. We still need to address the offense too--and if you can do both, that's a no-brainer. We still have other places to improve besides DE.

Poster "dryheat44" is one of our defensive gurus here. His latest mock has us taking OT Smith from USC, mostly b/c he does not see much value after Watt and Jordan are picked first. Those guys you want may not be there in that range.

3. Ingram is always marked as top 10 player rankings overall, sometimes even top 5-6. If BB thinks we can get him as a franchise RB, so be it. It would honestly be a steal at 17.

4. Same goes with the OL picks, if Costanzo, Smith, etc are of more value to BB, the same scenario plays out.

5. Just b/c we don't pick a DE with the first pick, does not mean that we won't address the situation. We can easily choose Wilkerson or Heyward at 28 or 33--or even somewhere around there depending on whether or not we trade that pick. DE will be addressed for sure. We may even take Sheard as an OLB too. This way we cover all of the bases, improve the team in many aspects, and it's still a great draft.

6. The fans are often not the focus of BB's draft picking, so whatever we 'think' he may do--just go ahead and pick the opposite. However, at the end of the day, something will be done to improve the defensive situation.

7. We have lots of injured guys coming back on the line, T.Warren, Wright, and Pryor. We also have not re-signed G.Warren to this point, and he played quite serviceable last yr. We also went out and signed Marcus Stroud. The line will already be improved, and BB may not feel that pick #1 is needed. He may see value at improving depth and competition later on. He may even totally shock the hell out of us, and go after Cullen Jenkins in free agency--whenever it begins. I seriously doubt it, but maybe that's his plan to add a big player, who knows? Maybe he honestly doesn't project any of these guys to our system as well as we do?

Excellent post. However, maybe Bill could think outside the box and move up rather than always moving down. We need a play maker, a difference maker, someone who can wreak havoc as a pass rusher. Not only at the DE position, but also at the OLB. Not sure if there is that guy in this draft, but if there is maybe we need to package some of all of these picks stockpiled over the years and move up and grab our guy. It is no coincidence that our best defensive player (Mayo) was picked in the high 1st round. The time is now to get a playmaker pass rusher so we can have a Farrior, Woodley, Timmons type of player, which is undisputedly this team's greatest need. We just can not take an OL just because he is the best available player at our designated spot and then try to get a servicable pass rusher in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Didn't happen with Cunningham last year (I know he is still very young), didn't happen with Crable and likely won't happen again this year.

 

[Badger]

Actually, since the last time BB took a first pick on the other side of the ball, all the way back in 2006, we have not only picked defensively first, we have picked defensively with MANY of our first several picks. As I said before, it may be the law of averages this year--who knows?

2007 (first 2)

Pick one---Meriweather DB
Pick two--K.Brown DL

2008 (first 3)

Pick one--Mayo LB
Pick two--Wheatley DB
Pick three--Crable LB

2009 (first 3)

Pick one--Chung S
Pick two--Brace DL
PIck three--Butler DB

2010 (3 out of first 4)

Pick one--McCourtey DB
Pick two--Gronkowski TE (the one and only exception--also followed by 2 more defensive picks, making it 3 out of the first 4)
Pick three--Cunningham LB
Pick four--Spikes LB

----------

So, that's 11 of the top 12 picks we've had spent on defense since taking an offensive player 5 years ago (Maroney). After choosing 11 out of 12, is it really that big of a stretch to think that we may choose offensively first?

Who is going to rush the passer in that group this year? Again, back to my original point. This team has absolutely no pass rushers. We had zero pass rush last year and the year before that and the year before that. We can not keep ignoring this. Allowing guys like Sanchez and Roethliseberger and Manning to just sit back there with no rush will not get us back to the Super Bowl. We got carved up in the playoff games the past 2 years by a lack of pass rush. We haven't had a pass rush since Seymour left town and haven't won a playoff game since. No coincidence in my opinion.

 

[supafly]

Excellent post. However, maybe Bill could think outside the box and move up rather than always moving down. We need a play maker, a difference maker, someone who can wreak havoc as a pass rusher. Not only at the DE position, but also at the OLB. Not sure if there is that guy in this draft, but if there is maybe we need to package some of all of these picks stockpiled over the years and move up and grab our guy. It is no coincidence that our best defensive player (Mayo) was picked in the high 1st round. The time is now to get a playmaker pass rusher so we can have a Farrior, Woodley, Timmons type of player, which is undisputedly this team's greatest need. We just can not take an OL just because he is the best available player at our designated spot and then try to get a servicable pass rusher in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Didn't happen with Cunningham last year (I know he is still very young), didn't happen with Crable and likely won't happen again this year.

I agree. It would be nice to see a change, and going up to grab a 'playmaker' type again. That is certainly a fair point. Maybe this will be the year. If not, it'll have to be soon. One of these drafts will be 'good enough.'

Overall, I think the defense will be improved a lot. We should add at least a DE and an OLB in the first 3 rounds, that'll help. So will the return of T.Warren and Bodden, and the young kids (yr 1-2) having some more experience.

We were close. I think that trend will continue. At the very least we will be in great position to compete, and get a playoff spot one way or another. I love the consistency on this team, as far as competing yr in and yr out.

 

[supafly]

Who is going to rush the passer in that group this year? Again, back to my original point. This team has absolutely no pass rushers. We had zero pass rush last year and the year before that and the year before that. We can not keep ignoring this. Allowing guys like Sanchez and Roethliseberger and Manning to just sit back there with no rush will not get us back to the Super Bowl. We got carved up in the playoff games the past 2 years by a lack of pass rush. We haven't had a pass rush since Seymour left town and haven't won a playoff game since. No coincidence in my opinion.

I agree, and nothing has been done to offset the loss of Seymour. That has been a serious problem, and needs addressed. I have a feeling we'll see a DE added via the draft, just not sure it'll be who we want picked high enough. There's still Wilkerson and Heyward--for all we know BB may like one of them better anyway.

The LB's problem is also very weak--at least in my opinion. This is the part of the defense that I feel needs the most work. Cunningham and Spikes were just rookies, so their adding another yr should help. I like the thought of adding Sheard from Pitt in the second rd.

 

[Badger]

I agree, and nothing has been done to offset the loss of Seymour. That has been a serious problem, and needs addressed. I have a feeling we'll see a DE added via the draft, just not sure it'll be who we want picked high enough. There's still Wilkerson and Heyward--for all we know BB may like one of them better anyway.

The LB's problem is also very weak--at least in my opinion. This is the part of the defense that I feel needs the most work. Cunningham and Spikes were just rookies, so their adding another yr should help. I like the thought of adding Sheard from Pitt in the second rd.

Agreed. We just can't keep adding washed up guys like Burgess, Warren, etc. thinking they will help the rush. In my opinion, we need to draft a young guy that really has explosive skills and usually the only place to find that guy is high in the 1st round. I don't think I can go through another year of not getting any pressure on the other team's QB unless we bring an all out blitz or blitz a DB. Like it or not, Sanchez is getting better every year and will pick us apart in the future if we can't make him hurry or beat him up a little.'

 

[patchick]

Badger, there isn't a single poster on this board who doesn't crave a better pass rush. But you can't just equate that to "OLB at #17." The way this draft is shaping up, taking an outside rusher at #17 is likely to mean reaching for an inferior player. Everybody's focusing on DE with a side glance to OT because that's where the mid-first talent is concentrated.

In fact, looking back over this thread, I notice that you haven't named a single player you're pulling for at #17. What OLB candidates do you expect to be available there who are dramatically better than the likely options at #28 or #33? (Let's assume Miller, Bowers, Quinn & Kerrigan are all gone, as in most recent mocks.)

 

[supafly]

I think Patchick makes a very valid point, Badger. Believe me, we all feel the same pain regarding the lack of adequate pass rush, no doubt about that. I think you are just antsy and want a solution as of yesterday. I would bet anything that Belichick recognizes it as a problem, I don't think that he is oblivious to the current situation.

Which makes me believe that the process is just not as 'easy' as maybe some of us think it is. Like Patchick said, there has to be someone available AND who provides BB's definition of 'value' for the slot and pick, someone who projects to our somewhat complicated system, has the size and measurables available, has great work ethic, no character issues, and can (likely) also be a 3 down player. Every time you go down the list a couple of categories, you can pretty much cross off a name. We won't know if they're available at this point of course, and based on Belichick's history picking OLB's in round one (....) I would tend to think the trend will continue.

I have a feeling that we will address it through later picks, you just have to believe in the coach and the system.

 

[cstjohn17]

I think Patchick makes a very valid point.

Sigh, she always does.... but don't stop dreaming.

If they are thinking premier OLB a trade to 10 will likely get them either Quinn or Bowers. I am sure both of them could be nit picked to death but they appear to be the real deal.

Looking at history they are more likely to seek this position via free agency, remember free agency? It was a grand thing that kept us alive during March and April until the draft finally came.

Colvin, Thomas were all pretty high profile free agents.
Kiwanuka , Edwards, Woodley, Hali are better than any rookie

 

[supafly]

Sigh, she always does.... but don't stop dreaming.

If they are thinking premier OLB a trade to 10 will likely get them either Quinn or Bowers. I am sure both of them could be nit picked to death but they appear to be the real deal.

Looking at history they are more likely to seek this position via free agency, remember free agency? It was a grand thing that kept us alive during March and April until the draft finally came.

Colvin, Thomas were all pretty high profile free agents.
Kiwanuka , Edwards, Woodley, Hali are better than any rookie

The prospect of picking one up via free agency is a good point, and I'm sure we'll explore every angle, as usual. I'm not going to get my hopes up for any of these on the list though, as maybe we'd look at a low to mid level free agent LB though. Any kind of competition or added depth is great at this point, although I do think we will explore the option of picking at least one pure outside LB'er up after the second round or so.

I don't think Edwards would project to a LB here, would he? There's no way Woodley will be a UFA, even if they do drastically change the UFA rules. If any change is made, I think it's pretty certain that they'll meet in the middle and change it from 6 years to 5. I don't see any way that they'll change it from 6 all the way down to 4--but who knows? Anything is possible I suppose. That takes Woodley out of the equation for the most part, as he has 4 yrs.

Hali would be the best bet anyway, and he does have 5 seasons of playing time, having actually only missed 1 game in 5 years. He would make an immediate impact, and I'd pick him over any of these guys (obviously). I guess there is a chance of them lowering the seasons accrued from 6 to 5, but I don't know if we'd be able to meet his higher salary requests (IMO).

Kiwanuka is an interesting thought, and the only player out of the group who I'd actually see us pursuing at all--depending on his salary demands and specifics of course.

 

[Fencer]

At SOME point the drafts will focus more on offense than defense, just due to age. You have to believe this unless you have a very pessimistic view of the current young defensive talent.

On the other hand, it doesn't have to happen yet. Except at ILB (Mayo, Spikes, et al.), it's tough to argue that we're completely set with young talent. Not even CB -- one could argue that everybody after Bodden (not that young) and McCourty should be upgraded, and that Arrington's value is best realized by moving him to safety.

The real problem is in the interior OL, where one guy retired, one guy is aging, one guy in his prime doesn't want to be here any more, and the backups haven't proved much. A young upgrade could surely be used there ...

 

[Brady2Welker]

Badger, there isn't a single poster on this board who doesn't crave a better pass rush. But you can't just equate that to "OLB at #17." The way this draft is shaping up, taking an outside rusher at #17 is likely to mean reaching for an inferior player. Everybody's focusing on DE with a side glance to OT because that's where the mid-first talent is concentrated.

In fact, looking back over this thread, I notice that you haven't named a single player you're pulling for at #17. What OLB candidates do you expect to be available there who are dramatically better than the likely options at #28 or #33? (Let's assume Miller, Bowers, Quinn & Kerrigan are all gone, as in most recent mocks.)

Absolutely love this post.

 

[DaBruinz]

Part of the issue for the pass rushers was that they got very little help from the D-Line in tying up multiple blockers. With only Wilfork drawing a double team, the opposing O-line was able to put a double team where-ever they wanted and create holes for the run or use the additional blocker to pick up the OLB with ease.

Ty Warren returning at Full Health, Marcus Stroud, and Ron Brace being healthy should give the Pats 3 DEs that they can rotate. That being said, the Pats still need someone for the RDE spot. Brace is the long term solution behind Ty Warren. And I believe he showed that last season before he got injured. The Pats need someone who can play the RDE spot and force opposing teams to consider putting an extra man there. Cam Jordan, M. Wilkerson, JJ Watt seem to be the 3 most agree who can do that.

I will be honest. I believe that Mike Wright is done. One only has to look up 95 to Marc Savard to see the impact of multiple concussions. And I hate saying that Wright is done because he's been such a success story and one of my favorite players.

Myron Pryor is best suited to coming in on 3rd downs ala Jarvis Green. Beyond that, Deaderick is definitely no lock to make the team after getting suspended.

One of the things to remember is that BBs philosophy is about VALUE. One only has to look back at the last 2 drafts to see how that philosophy is successful. No one had Vollmer on the radar in the 2nd round of 2009. Yet the guy looks like he's going to be another in a great line of OTs with Matt Light, Leon Gray, and Bruce Armstrong.

Badger, during the early stages of the post-NCAA season, many people were talking about the Cam Jordans, JJ Watts, Ryan Kerrigans. When the OTs seemed like THEY were going to be the TOP position. Now, however, the focus has shifted to the DEs as being the TOP position.

I think that it will be very unlikely that people get the 1st 10 picks correct this year because I believe that Carolina is not going to do as people think. In fact, I'd be willing to say that Arizona, Cleveland and Denver will probably not pick who people think. Mainly because I believe that those teams have new coaches/GMs and that the Coaches will have a say in the pick, though they may not get who they want.

The one thing we all know is that Denver doesn't need a QB. We also know that Kolb is going to be shopped around. As is Chad Henne and Vince Young. There are no shortage of teams looking for QBs with Buffalo, Arizona, San Fran, Cleveland, Minnesota and Miami all needing one. To top it off, the QBs in this draft are being drastically over-rated by most everyone (IMHO). None of the QBs in this draft are as good as Aaron Rodgers or Kevin Kolb. They are all projects. More so than in any other year. So that is adding to the unknown.

There is not a ton of talent available at WR, 4-3 OLB, MLB, DT, or Safety. In fact, I believe this is the first time in several years that there won't be a safety drafted in the 1st round.

 

[patchick]

I think that it will be very unlikely that people get the 1st 10 picks correct this year because I believe that Carolina is not going to do as people think. In fact, I'd be willing to say that Arizona, Cleveland and Denver will probably not pick who people think. Mainly because I believe that those teams have new coaches/GMs and that the Coaches will have a say in the pick, though they may not get who they want.

Along the same reasoning, I'm expecting some major wheeling and dealing in the top 10. If I were running the Panthers, I'd want out of #1 in a big way. The thought of replacing last year's risky 1st-round QB with this year's for megabucks would turn my stomach; Dareus isn't a perfect fit for their defense; Peterson just isn't cure enough for what ails them; and they have no 2nd-round pick. In that situation, you don't hold out for "book value."

 

[Badger]

I think Patchick makes a very valid point, Badger. Believe me, we all feel the same pain regarding the lack of adequate pass rush, no doubt about that. I think you are just antsy and want a solution as of yesterday. I would bet anything that Belichick recognizes it as a problem, I don't think that he is oblivious to the current situation.

Which makes me believe that the process is just not as 'easy' as maybe some of us think it is. Like Patchick said, there has to be someone available AND who provides BB's definition of 'value' for the slot and pick, someone who projects to our somewhat complicated system, has the size and measurables available, has great work ethic, no character issues, and can (likely) also be a 3 down player. Every time you go down the list a couple of categories, you can pretty much cross off a name. We won't know if they're available at this point of course, and based on Belichick's history picking OLB's in round one (....) I would tend to think the trend will continue.

I have a feeling that we will address it through later picks, you just have to believe in the coach and the system.

The bottom line is that we have failed at trying to generate a pass rush for the past 3 years and the end result has been ZERO playoff wins since we won the AFC Championship game 4 years ago. Belichick's strategy in trying to draft effective pass rushers later in the draft has failed miserably as has his strategy of trying to bring in free agents to rush the passer. Nobody is going to argue that Colvin or Adelius Thomas or Derrick Burgess or Junior Seau etc. have been oustanding pass rushers in New England. Look at the final 4 teams last year - Green Bay (Clay Matthews and outstanding pass rush), Chicago Bears (Lance Briggs and outstanding pass rush), Pittsburgh Steelers (Harrison and Woodley and oustanding pass rush), New York Jets (Thomas, Pace, Scott and outstanding pass rush). We do not have any impact players who can rush the passer. This can not be avoided. We have the ammo this year to try to move up to try to get in position to take a talented player who can provide some rush, whether it is a DE or OLB. This is all I am advocating. Enough of the "Value" baloney, we have more than enough picks to move up and take a stud pass rusher, still have a very effective draft with a number of "value" players (including OL in the 2nd round) and still turn some of those picks into future picks. The time is now while Brady is still the best in the business to get a playmaker on defense to complete this team and take a serious run at winning a Super Bowl instead of winning a lot of regular season games and flopping in the playoffs.