The Uncle Heatster 1st + 1 mock draft 1.0, March 15

[dryheat44]

First of all, this mock is completely unrealistic -- it has no trades. It's just something I do to get a handle on where the "hot spots" may be and where trades are likely to occur. These are bolded. Two observations -- DeQuan Bowers falls out of the top 10, and Mark Ingram doesn't go in the first round at all...other indicators that a trade could be a possibility. Even though it's unrealistic, it's something I do anyway, so I figured I'd share it and get any comments that I could use going forward. Onward....



1. CAR Blaine Gabbart
2. DEN Marcel Dareus
3. BUF Patrick Peterson
4. CIN Cam Newton
5. ARI Von Miller
6. CLE Nick Fairley
7. SF Prince Amukamara
8. TEN AJ Green
9. DAL Cam Jordan - I think that Dallas will probably move up. If not, I think they should trade back. Quinn and Bowers should excite somebody.
10. WAS Robert Quinn
11. HOU Aldon Smith
12. MIN Julio Jones
13. DET DaQuan Bowers - Bowers just wasn't a huge priority for teams up until now -- and he's not for Detroit, either, but line him up next to Suh and look out. This could be a likely trading spot for anybody looking to land Bowers.
14. STL Corey Liuget
15. MIA Phil Taylor - Early? Perhaps, but the 3-4 doesn't run without a nose. Miami would certainly prefer to trade back a couple of spots and take Taylor. SD at #18 seems like a possibility.
16. JAC Jimmy Smith
17. NE JJ Watt
18. SD Tyron Smith - San Diego wields some power in this draft, and is probably targeting some of the same picks as New England. Miami seems a good partner.
19. NYG Anthony Castonzo
20. TB Martez Wilson
21. KC Gabe Carimi
22. IND Derek Sherrod
23. PHI Brandon Harris
24. NO Justin Houston - Nobody here seems to be an especially great value for the Saints. This is a good spot for somebody to come get Ingram, Pouncey, or Wilkerson.
25. SEA Jake Locker
26. BAL Mike Pouncey
27. ATL Stephen Paea
28. NE Ryan Kerrigan
29. CHI Christian Ballard
30. NYJ Muhammad Wilkerson
31. PIT Ben Ijalana
32. GB Nate Solder
33. NE Danny Watkins - This pick will almost certainly be traded, but Watkins belongs in New England, and I don't think the Patriots will trade down too far.

 

[DW Toys]

First of all, this mock is completely unrealistic -- it has no trades. It's just something I do to get a handle on where the "hot spots" may be and where trades are likely to occur. These are bolded. Two observations -- DeQuan Bowers falls out of the top 10, and Mark Ingram doesn't go in the first round at all...other indicators that a trade could be a possibility. Even though it's unrealistic, it's something I do anyway, so I figured I'd share it and get any comments that I could use going forward. Onward....



1. CAR Blaine Gabbart
2. DEN Marcel Dareus
3. BUF Patrick Peterson
4. CIN Cam Newton
5. ARI Von Miller
6. CLE Nick Fairley
7. SF Prince Amukamara
8. TEN AJ Green
9. DAL Cam Jordan - I think that Dallas will probably move up. If not, I think they should trade back. Quinn and Bowers should excite somebody.
10. WAS Robert Quinn
11. HOU Aldon Smith
12. MIN Julio Jones
13. DET DaQuan Bowers - Bowers just wasn't a huge priority for teams up until now -- and he's not for Detroit, either, but line him up next to Suh and look out. This could be a likely trading spot for anybody looking to land Bowers.
14. STL Corey Liuget
15. MIA Phil Taylor - Early? Perhaps, but the 3-4 doesn't run without a nose. Miami would certainly prefer to trade back a couple of spots and take Taylor. SD at #18 seems like a possibility.
16. JAC Jimmy Smith
17. NE JJ Watt
18. SD Tyron Smith - San Diego wields some power in this draft, and is probably targeting some of the same picks as New England. Miami seems a good partner.
19. NYG Anthony Castonzo
20. TB Martez Wilson
21. KC Gabe Carimi
22. IND Derek Sherrod
23. PHI Brandon Harris
24. NO Justin Houston - Nobody here seems to be an especially great value for the Saints. This is a good spot for somebody to come get Ingram, Pouncey, or Wilkerson.
25. SEA Jake Locker
26. BAL Mike Pouncey
27. ATL Stephen Paea
28. NE Ryan Kerrigan
29. CHI Christian Ballard
30. NYJ Muhammad Wilkerson
31. PIT Ben Ijalana
32. GB Nate Solder
33. NE Danny Watkins - This pick will almost certainly be traded, but Watkins belongs in New England, and I don't think the Patriots will trade down too far.

This above would be my perfect scenario.

I lean a little toward Ingram somehow because I think BGE had a nice year and was serviceable, but I think Ingram is the bell cow like Dillon was.
DW Toys

 

[mgteich]

sign me up

 

[dryheat44]

sign me up

Yeah, I think most of us would sign off on that 1st round -- which means it's probably impossible. What definitely works in our favor is that Kerrigan doesn't figure on getting as much interest from 4-3 teams, which is pretty much all who drafts in that range.

 

[Water Boy]

What definitely works in our favor is that Kerrigan doesn't figure on getting as much interest from 4-3 teams, which is pretty much all who drafts in that range.

Really? I thought the word at the combine was that Kerrigan was almost exclusively a 4-3 DE prospect.

 

[mgteich]

Also, no trades allows us to get Watt. It would seem that someone would trade up to 14, 15 or 16 to grab Watt. If the draft went this way through 13, I would expect Belichick to trade up with St. Louis at 14 to get Watt.

Yeah, I think most of us would sign off on that 1st round -- which means it's probably impossible. What definitely works in our favor is that Kerrigan doesn't figure on getting as much interest from 4-3 teams, which is pretty much all who drafts in that range.

 

[TealSox]

Drafting Kerrigan and Watt would be a bit redundant, no? I was under the impression that both played majority of the snaps at DE and may transition into 3-4 OLBs. This doesn't even account for having Cunningham.

In either case, I like both players and the bottom of the first round is weak. Ingram would be tempting at 33 though, but having him available in the second round will cause the trade lines to open up and the Pats could being to stockpile for 2012.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Drafting Kerrigan and Watt would be a bit redundant, no? I was under the impression that both played majority of the snaps at DE and may transition into 3-4 OLBs. This doesn't even account for having Cunningham.

In either case, I like both players and the bottom of the first round is weak. Ingram would be tempting at 33 though, but having him available in the second round will cause the trade lines to open up and the Pats could being to stockpile for 2012.

I highly doubt Watt will be moving to LB anytime soon. He weighs in the 295 range and with his height and frame I could see him playing at 305.

Kerrigan definately a convert. A lot of folks see him as a safe pick. I'm in the stiff minority on this one.

 

[mgteich]

Watt is 25 pounds heavier than Kerrigan. I see Watt as being a DE, and Kerrigan as being an OLB.

Drafting Kerrigan and Watt would be a bit redundant, no? I was under the impression that both played majority of the snaps at DE and may transition into 3-4 OLBs. This doesn't even account for having Cunningham.

In either case, I like both players and the bottom of the first round is weak. Ingram would be tempting at 33 though, but having him available in the second round will cause the trade lines to open up and the Pats could being to stockpile for 2012.

 

[dryheat44]

Drafting Kerrigan and Watt would be a bit redundant, no? I was under the impression that both played majority of the snaps at DE and may transition into 3-4 OLBs. This doesn't even account for having Cunningham.

In either case, I like both players and the bottom of the first round is weak. Ingram would be tempting at 33 though, but having him available in the second round will cause the trade lines to open up and the Pats could being to stockpile for 2012.

No, no....Watt is a 3-4 DE. Kerrigan is a 3-4 OLB. Watt might be the heaviest LB in the history of the league if he were to be slotted back there.

I agree that Ingram is tempting at #33, but there are other issues that need to be attended to. I would expect him to go late in the first anyway after a trade.

 

[Water Boy]

As one of the top 3-4 NT prospects, I think you are on to something with Phil Taylor as a draft board riser.

 

[Patriot Missile]

As one of the top 3-4 NT prospects, I think you are on to something with Phil Taylor as a draft board riser.

I just don't see it with the guy. Atleast with Ngata, Wilfork and Raji there was no denying the strength and athletic ability. It was there from day 1 and it translated to lots of film. All of a sudden Taylor decides he wants to try the week of the Senior Bowl and combine to impress me? Nice try but that sounds more like lazy to me. Mayo is enamored with this kid and I can't see why. Let the Jets have him and we'll take Kenrick Ellis. He is the same type of player that could be had later on in the draft without using 28 or 33.

 

[Water Boy]

All of a sudden Taylor decides he wants to try the week of the Senior Bowl and combine to impress me? Nice try but that sounds more like lazy to me. Mayock? is enamored with this kid and I can't see why. Let the Jets have him and we'll take Kenrick Ellis. He is the same type of player that could be had later on in the draft without using 28 or 33.

I have character concerns with him, but he's arguably the top rated 3-4 NT prospect and it would not surprise me to see him go higher than many project. His off my draft board for the Patriots unless he falls into round 3.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, in your scenario, we would need to be careful. All the OT's are gone, as well as Pouncey and Ijalana. You are quite right. We cannot move down too far. Some would say that only Watkins and Wisnewski are left among the first tier guards. There is a strong tempatation to take your man in these situation, unless Belichick is fine with either of these, and also in a couple of players in the late 30's (perhaps Reed).

.33. NE Danny Watkins - This pick will almost certainly be traded, but Watkins belongs in New England, and I don't think the Patriots will trade down too far.

 

[ZoisKing]

I'm very fond of Kerrigan, and think we'd be able to get him around 17. I doubt he falls to 28. However, if we're just going by your mock, then I'd take Carimi at 17. I'd like to see a future tackle tandem of Vollmer (LT) and Carimi (RT). I believe a good right guard would be available by pick 60.

 

[Off The Grid]

Drafting Kerrigan and Watt would be a bit redundant, no? I was under the impression that both played majority of the snaps at DE and may transition into 3-4 OLBs.

 

[Off The Grid]

I just don't see it with the guy. Atleast with Ngata, Wilfork and Raji there was no denying the strength and athletic ability. It was there from day 1 and it translated to lots of film. All of a sudden Taylor decides he wants to try the week of the Senior Bowl and combine to impress me? Nice try but that sounds more like lazy to me. Mayo is enamored with this kid and I can't see why. Let the Jets have him and we'll take Kenrick Ellis. He is the same type of player that could be had later on in the draft without using 28 or 33.

Very fair Arguments, sir, and I'd be the LAST guy ~ despite my FERVENT support for the guy, IF he checks out ~ to tell you that he or ANYONE is a Sure Thing...But I DO have a Rebuttal, forged way back in the Summer, by the extraordinary Wes Bunting of National FootBall Post:

Don’t expect him to look comfortable playing in space vs. Big 12 offenses.

However, he’s a powerful two-gapping-type nose who can eat up blocks and anchor at the point of attack.

Could end up being a much better pro than he’s been in college.

Top 100 prospects for 2011: Part 3 | National Football Post

...NONE of which is to say that I wouldn't love to draft Kenrick Ellis AS WELL!! :rocker:

 

[Patriot Missile]

Very fair Arguments, sir, and I'd be the LAST guy ~ despite my FERVENT support for the guy, IF he checks out ~ to tell you that he or ANYONE is a Sure Thing...But I DO have a Rebuttal, forged way back in the Summer, by the extraordinary Wes Bunting of National FootBall Post:



Top 100 prospects for 2011: Part 3 | National Football Post

...NONE of which is to say that I wouldn't love to draft Kenrick Ellis AS WELL!! :rocker:

To be clear. I don't think he is going to bust. Projecting a guy of his size to bust is very hard to do. I just don't see the need for him with such a high draft pick when his twin brother across the way who I feel has much higher upside could be had with 74 or 92. Maybe even later if your willing to take the risk?

I am losing faith quickly in Wes Bunting regarding anything to do with the Pats. Ayers and Houston? He's got to be kidding himself if he thinks that's the direction we are going. I'm not even sure if he knows that we've moved from a 34 to a 43 under to a 4 2 5 with all the stunts and disquises to go with it. I guess the one thing that is constant is they still work out of a two gap most of the time. We are many defenses which require the personal to be bigger and more versatile to play 34 on one play and 43 on the next without subbing if need be. It creates havoc and confusion and Belichicks master plan is almost in place and ready to be launched at the NFL. He is ready for someone like Watt at DE and somebody like Quinn or Smith at OLB to complete it.

 

[Off The Grid]

To be clear. I don't think he is going to bust. Projecting a guy of his size to bust is very hard to do. I just don't see the need for him with such a high draft pick when his twin brother across the way who I feel has much higher upside could be had with 74 or 92. Maybe even later if your willing to take the risk?

I am losing faith quickly in Wes Bunting regarding anything to do with the Pats. Ayers and Houston? He's got to be kidding himself if he thinks that's the direction we are going. I'm not even sure if he knows that we've moved from a 34 to a 43 under to a 4 2 5 with all the stunts and disquises to go with it. I guess the one thing that is constant is they still work out of a two gap most of the time. We are many defenses which require the personal to be bigger and more versatile to play 34 on one play and 43 on the next without subbing if need be. It creates havoc and confusion and Belichicks master plan is almost in place and ready to be launched at the NFL. He is ready for someone like Watt at DE and somebody like Quinn or Smith at OLB to complete it.

Nicely put, sir.

Regarding Bunting: I think he is an exceptional Analyst...But I couldn't even finish watching that Video, the other day, it was so insipid. It was truly shocking, how far off he was.

 

[supafly]

It creates havoc and confusion and Belichicks master plan is almost in place and ready to be launched at the NFL. He is ready for someone like Watt at DE and somebody like Quinn or Smith at OLB to complete it.

My god I hope you're right, I have been in need of some tough D around here for a while--not to excessively whine either b/c it hasn't been 'that' long, but I'd love to go back to the days where opposing offenses actually feared us. A physical, run stuffing defense, that can cause havoc on the QB, and create confusion. That said, we were still able to see the Manning face this year, we were still 8th in overall scoring, and we did cause a lot of turnovers--I think this thing is headed back in the right direction for sure.

With the return of Ty Warren, Leigh Bodden, and a healthy Wright and Pryor, I believe the defense will certainly continue to improve. We also have the added experience of last year's rookies in Spikes and Cunningham, the possibility of a very decent secondary, AND hopefully the addition of fresh youth and talent through the draft. The opportunity to grab a playmaker or two, and the possibility of truly solving/or at least helping to solve the RDE situation should be huge. I will admit that I was not one to be overly confident in my season prediction record, and was one who had a 10-6/11-5 record as a good possibility, but I am seriously very optimistic with the improvement of this defense this year. I believe there is serious potential for something again, and this draft will be a key component in that.