Von Miller Interview

[Patriot Missile]

OK, let's actually look at the full scenario if you trade up for Von Miller.

Everybody seems to agree that it will take both first-round picks (at the minimum). Most folks here also seem to agree that a starting-caliber DE is a must in this draft. Realistically, that will require a pick in the early/mid 20's. Let's say you trade up with a package like this...

#33 & #60 for #24 & #88

...and nab Muhammad Wilkerson.

Now you have #74, #88 & #92 remaining for day 2. Interior OL is a must. Board favorites Watkins, Ijalana and Boling are likely gone. Let's say you double up on guys who are ready and versatile, if somewhat low-ceilinged: James Carpenter (OG/RT) at #74, John Moffitt (OG/C) at #88. #92 is pretty wide open; let's take a shot at Greg Romeus.

So starting with 2 picks in each of the first 3 rounds, you come away with:

Von Miller
Muhammad Wilkerson
James Carpenter
John Moffitt
Greg Romeus
(no future picks acquired; not much opportunity for it in this scenario)

Happy?

I think I want you in the war room on draft day. That is quite a catch of picks you got there.

 

[dryheat44]

I think I want you in the war room on draft day. That is quite a catch of picks you got there.

I think that was opposite of her point. She doesn't want to turn 6 top 90 picks into that draft haul. At least from my read.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I think that was opposite of her point. She doesn't want to turn 6 top 90 picks into that draft haul. At least from my read.

I got the sarcasm just fine. Still, I'd be happy with the quality of picks she acquired is all.

 

[TheBaronPatriot]

I got the sarcasm just fine. Still, I'd be happy with the quality of picks she acquired is all.

I disagree with the quantity over quality argument.

IF they feel he's the answer and he falls to within the parameters they have set for his acquisition price I'm all for it. I forget the #s but this team doesn't have the roster space for another 10-12 rookies (I think).

Plus we all know we're going to get Ammo for next year.

 

[Patriot Missile]

It appeared they went for quantity last year but came away with quality to go with added picks in the next draft. As of right now I think I will be willing to take the risk on a few quality players unless there is a huge roster expansion in the near future. However, who are we to say Belichick can't have just as much success this draft as the last one? I think the odds are against him duplicating last years success but maybe BB works a lot better with a plethora of picks?

As of right now there is a chance, although unlikely, that along with the consensus top players, Watt,A Smith, Jordan will all be gone before we pick at 17. Personally I think this is a great draft to move up in and I don't want to miss out on some particular players that I think make this defense drastically improve. But in the end we are all just spectators.

 

[dryheat44]

As of right now there is a chance, although unlikely, that along with the consensus top players, Watt,A Smith, Jordan will all be gone before we pick at 17. Personally I think this is a great draft to move up in and I don't want to miss out on some particular players that I think make this defense drastically improve. But in the end we are all just spectators.

Yes, but I'd be far more open than trading up to #14 or so using a 3rd round pick than going to #7 for the cost of 2 first round picks.

 

[bucky]

OK, let's actually look at the full scenario if you trade up for Von Miller.

Everybody seems to agree that it will take both first-round picks (at the minimum). Most folks here also seem to agree that a starting-caliber DE is a must in this draft. Realistically, that will require a pick in the early/mid 20's. Let's say you trade up with a package like this...

#33 & #60 for #24 & #88

...and nab Muhammad Wilkerson.

Now you have #74, #88 & #92 remaining for day 2. Interior OL is a must. Board favorites Watkins, Ijalana and Boling are likely gone. Let's say you double up on guys who are ready and versatile, if somewhat low-ceilinged: James Carpenter (OG/RT) at #74, John Moffitt (OG/C) at #88. #92 is pretty wide open; let's take a shot at Greg Romeus.

So starting with 2 picks in each of the first 3 rounds, you come away with:

Von Miller
Muhammad Wilkerson
James Carpenter
John Moffitt
Greg Romeus
(no future picks acquired; not much opportunity for it in this scenario)

Happy?

This would be awesome. Wilkerson and Miller! The only thing I'd change is replace Romeus with either a RB (Vereen?) or trade into next year. How many more rookies do you want on the team this year? Especially in a weak draft like this?

 

[patchick]

I got the sarcasm just fine. Still, I'd be happy with the quality of picks she acquired is all.

What sarcasm? I was genuinely exploring the scenario, and doing my best to make it work. There'd been a lot of "Trade up for Von Miller!" and a lot of "Spend two first-rounders? Never!" But you can't look at that move in isolation. It affects the whole rest of the draft, e.g. in forcing a trade up from #33.

Some concerns I'd have:

- You can't count on a decent trade partner for that DE...or Wilkerson hanging around even until #24. If you have to give up #60 straight up to make the trade, or if you come away with Cam Heyward instead of Wilkerson, does that change your evaluation?

- BB always talks about not wanting big gaps in your basket of draft picks. Sitting out the whole 2nd round is HUGE. It ties your hands if a great value player slides, and it leaves you to sit and cross your fingers for 50 picks, hoping that the board falls your way.

- Giving up the chance to pick up extra value in 2012 is no small thing. It's been a longgg time since the Pats had only their own picks in the first 3 rounds.

But IF the scouts were convinced that Miller could be a true difference-maker in the Patriots defense, it might well be worth it.

 

[Patriot Missile]

What sarcasm? I was genuinely exploring the scenario, and doing my best to make it work. There'd been a lot of "Trade up for Von Miller!" and a lot of "Spend two first-rounders? Never!" But you can't look at that move in isolation. It affects the whole rest of the draft, e.g. in forcing a trade up from #33.

Some concerns I'd have:

- You can't count on a decent trade partner for that DE...or Wilkerson hanging around even until #24. If you have to give up #60 straight up to make the trade, or if you come away with Cam Heyward instead of Wilkerson, does that change your evaluation?

- BB always talks about not wanting big gaps in your basket of draft picks. Sitting out the whole 2nd round is HUGE. It ties your hands if a great value player slides, and it leaves you to sit and cross your fingers for 50 picks, hoping that the board falls your way.

- Giving up the chance to pick up extra value in 2012 is no small thing. It's been a longgg time since the Pats had only their own picks in the first 3 rounds.

But IF the scouts were convinced that Miller could be a true difference-maker in the Patriots defense, it might well be worth it.

Thought there was a slight hint there. Apologize, you seem conservative in most posts as does Belichick with his trading back. But he has made it be known in the past that if there was a player worth trading up for, he would do it. Apparently you do agree with him.

I like Cameron Heyward a whole bunch. He has great film and seems to be a perfect fit here. Tommy John surgery concerns me a little but I'd be more concerned if he was pitching for a MLB club. I like Wilkerson better because of his upside and strength along with his raw potential that just needs to be harnessed by a coach like BB. I'd be fine with either or though. They both improve the roster tremendously.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Doesn't anyone have concerns about the player himself?
Why are so many posters willing to jump on the Von Miller bandwagon.
What I see is Dwight Freeney 2.0.
A really good 4-3 passrush end. But not the right fit for our 3-4 system.
So he can speed rushes the passer real well BUT if he doesn't get to the QB he'll overrun the play.
Run straight at him and he'll get washed out by the OL.

What part of Von Miller looks like a complete 3-4 OLBer to you?
Can he even drop back in coverage.
How does he play with his hand off the ground?
Someone SELL me the Von Miller package.
As of now I just don't see it.

 

[patchick]

Thought there was a slight hint there. Apologize, you seem conservative in most posts as does Belichick with his trading back. But he has made it be known in the past that if there was a player worth trading up for, he would do it. Apparently you do agree with him.

I suspect that the player BB would be most tempted to go all-in for is Dareus. A very "ready" player at a critical and hard-to-fill position. Unfortunately, I don't think even the 2 #1's would come close to landing him.

Suppose, though, that you could trade the 2 #1's for Dareus. Now you still have your 2nd rounders, without the same urgency to trade up from #33.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I suspect that the player BB would be most tempted to go all-in for is Dareus. A very "ready" player at a critical and hard-to-fill position. Unfortunately, I don't think even the 2 #1's would come close to landing him.

Suppose, though, that you could trade the 2 #1's for Dareus. Now you still have your 2nd rounders, without the same urgency to trade up from #33.

He was possibly attainable a month ago before his fantastic combine. Dareus is the best fit for this defense period. {Sorry Sciz} Now 17 and 28 isn't getting it done. I'm not giving up 3 picks for anyone. However if Belichick felt strongly enough about a player to do something crazy like that then I would follow blindly with excitement.

 

[bucky]

What part of Von Miller looks like a complete 3-4 OLBer to you?
Can he even drop back in coverage.
How does he play with his hand off the ground?
Someone SELL me the Von Miller package.
As of now I just don't see it.

There's been a lot of time spent on this board discussing all these issues. He's played with his hand both on and off the ground in college. Did you see him play/practice in the Sr Bowl? He spent all his time with the LBs and hardly spent time pass rushing and almost exclusively lined up about 5 yards off the LOS. What he showed is that (a) he is outstanding in space - both tracking and tackling, (b) he looks very natural dropping into coverage - although it was exclusively zone coverage, (c) he's very fast and instinctive.

IMO, he would instantly become the 2nd best true LB on this team. Add that's not even including his awesome pass rush abilities. The only question, to me, it his ability to set the edge on a consistent basis. IMO, he would be OK at it. I also happen to think that fans on this board tend to put too much emphasis on this. I'm sure he can set the edge better than TBC and just as good as Clay Mathews.

 

[Patriot Missile]

There's been a lot of time spent on this board discussing all these issues. He's played with his hand both on and off the ground in college. Did you see him play/practice in the Sr Bowl? He spent all his time with the LBs and hardly spent time pass rushing and almost exclusively lined up about 5 yards off the LOS. What he showed is that (a) he is outstanding in space - both tracking and tackling, (b) he looks very natural dropping into coverage - although it was exclusively zone coverage, (c) he's very fast and instinctive.

IMO, he would instantly become the 2nd best true LB on this team. Add that's not even including his awesome pass rush abilities. The only question, to me, it his ability to set the edge on a consistent basis. IMO, he would be OK at it. I also happen to think that fans on this board tend to put too much emphasis on this. I'm sure he can set the edge better than TBC and just as good as Clay Mathews.

Very good analysis. I don't think he will be the best LB New England has ever seen at setting the edge. I certainly think he will get better at if people are willing to let him grow into the role. His combine coverage skills have been described as erratic but I think it was pretty good considering the leap he's making.

I'm on this guys bandwagon because he is fast, has good film and football instincts and above all has a knack for finding the QB and making him hurry things which lead to mistakes. The coverage and setting the edge will take work but his work ethic and character suggest he is up to the task.

As much as I like Miller, he's not going to work as well unless we get more help up front. Wilkerson or Heyward gives this project some wheels for years to come. Maybe a Jarvis Jenkins later could help out too.

I don't know why even get into these Miller talks. It's not like we are moving into the top 5 to get him anyways,

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

OK, let's actually look at the full scenario if you trade up for Von Miller.

Everybody seems to agree that it will take both first-round picks (at the minimum). Most folks here also seem to agree that a starting-caliber DE is a must in this draft. Realistically, that will require a pick in the early/mid 20's. Let's say you trade up with a package like this...

#33 & #60 for #24 & #88

...and nab Muhammad Wilkerson.

Now you have #74, #88 & #92 remaining for day 2. Interior OL is a must. Board favorites Watkins, Ijalana and Boling are likely gone. Let's say you double up on guys who are ready and versatile, if somewhat low-ceilinged: James Carpenter (OG/RT) at #74, John Moffitt (OG/C) at #88. #92 is pretty wide open; let's take a shot at Greg Romeus.

So starting with 2 picks in each of the first 3 rounds, you come away with:

Von Miller
Muhammad Wilkerson
James Carpenter
John Moffitt
Greg Romeus
(no future picks acquired; not much opportunity for it in this scenario)

Happy?

Scratch the last two, poor fits, but you're off to a good start.

 

[Sciz]

IMO, he would instantly become the 2nd best true LB on this team. Add that's not even including his awesome pass rush abilities. The only question, to me, it his ability to set the edge on a consistent basis. IMO, he would be OK at it. I also happen to think that fans on this board tend to put too much emphasis on this. I'm sure he can set the edge better than TBC and just as good as Clay Mathews.

Just as good as Clay Matthews isn't good enough. Better than TBC isn't taking much, and I wouldn't even consider that statement a given.

Von Miller would lose early-down snaps to Ninkovich in the Pats' defense.

 

[bucky]

Just as good as Clay Matthews isn't good enough. Better than TBC isn't taking much, and I wouldn't even consider that statement a given.

Von Miller would lose early-down snaps to Ninkovich in the Pats' defense.

I'm not going to get into the debate. I'll say this though - AD was never a good edge setter, not even in 2007. Neither was Colvin really. Both were still pretty good players. I think Miller will be a better player than Mathews. Mathews has more pass-rush moves. Miller will be better at every other aspect of the game. He may lose some snaps on 1st down early in his career, but that's OK. He'll end up being a 3 down LB. At their best, the Pats had a 3 man rotation at OLB anyway.

 

[bucky]

Some concerns I'd have:

- You can't count on a decent trade partner for that DE...or Wilkerson hanging around even until #24. If you have to give up #60 straight up to make the trade, or if you come away with Cam Heyward instead of Wilkerson, does that change your evaluation?

- BB always talks about not wanting big gaps in your basket of draft picks. Sitting out the whole 2nd round is HUGE. It ties your hands if a great value player slides, and it leaves you to sit and cross your fingers for 50 picks, hoping that the board falls your way.

Allow me to just challenge a couple of thoughts here.

1) You say we NEED a DE and the list is fairly short. While I would generally agree with that, I would say that what we need even more is a 3-down player at either OLB or DE position. That means a guy who can play the pass and the run, and improve the pass rush on 3rd down. There are very few of these guys in the draft. At OLB, I would say there's only 1 - Miller. At DE, there's about a handful - Dareus, Watt, Jordan, Wilkerson. Everyone else is either a 2-down player (Heyward) or a 3rd down pass rusher (Kerrigan).

So then the question becomes - which one do you get? My feeling is that after watching Cunningham trying to drop into coverage and the likes of Crable, Burgess, Moore, and even Arrington pass rushing on 3rd down, we would get more bang for the buck from Miller - who also happens to be the best player of them all (yes, this is all my opinion).

At DE, you can get by with Warren, Brace, Stroud, Wright, and Deaderick. What I'd like to see in that case is a guy who will upgrade the 3rd down pass rush up the middle. Maybe a guy like Ballard or Bailey somewhere in the 2nd, or even a guy like Klug or Pep Livingston towards the end of the draft. Of course if you can trade up for Wilkerson, that's the best of both worlds!

With regard to the long break between draft picks in your scenario, I don't think it's that big a deal this year because (a) the Pats don't need that many rookies this year, and (b) with 3 3rd round picks, they could package 2 of them to get into the 2nd round.

 

[patchick]

Allow me to just challenge a couple of thoughts here.

1) You say we NEED a DE and the list is fairly short. While I would generally agree with that, I would say that what we need even more is a 3-down player at either OLB or DE position. That means a guy who can play the pass and the run, and improve the pass rush on 3rd down. There are very few of these guys in the draft. At OLB, I would say there's only 1 - Miller. At DE, there's about a handful - Dareus, Watt, Jordan, Wilkerson. Everyone else is either a 2-down player (Heyward) or a 3rd down pass rusher (Kerrigan).

I see what you're saying, but I'm sticking to my guns on DE. A BB-style DE is just too hard to come by. Look at last year, where IMO there wasn't a single one worth a first-round pick, or the year before when Pioli had to blow the #3 overall pick on Tyson Jackson. This year is the chance.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I see what you're saying, but I'm sticking to my guns on DE. A BB-style DE is just too hard to come by. Look at last year, where IMO there wasn't a single one worth a first-round pick, or the year before when Pioli had to blow the #3 overall pick on Tyson Jackson. This year is the chance.

I agree on us needing a DE and that they are very hard to find. Fortunately in this draft there are two there is one DE that is ready made to start from day 1 for the Pats in Dareus, but unfortunately he is off the baord very early.

The second is Wilkerson of Temple, but he will track much like Ty Warren and need most if not an entire year before he can contribute. However by year two, Wilkerson should be a beast against the run; but bring little pass rush.